Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次覆盖) [1] Core Views - The company reported a good growth rate in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year increase of 8.53% in Q3 2024, despite a revenue decline of 6.66% [1] - The revenue decline has narrowed compared to Q2 2024, indicating a trend of marginal improvement [1] - The company is expected to see further revenue improvement in Q4 2024 and 2025, driven by a recovery in consumer demand and adjustments in inventory management [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 29.037 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.66%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.337 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.53% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 88.733 billion yuan, down 8.61% year-on-year, and net profit of 10.868 billion yuan, up 15.87% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin and net margin improved in Q3 2024, with gross margin at 34.85% and net margin at 11.45%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.48 percentage points and 1.62 percentage points, respectively [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 121.27 billion yuan, 126.27 billion yuan, and 131.54 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of -3.57%, 4.13%, and 4.17% [3] - The forecasted net profits for the same years are 11.736 billion yuan, 11.679 billion yuan, and 12.655 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.53%, -0.49%, and 8.36% [3] Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The company is recognized as a leading player in the dairy industry, with a strong competitive edge and anticipated marginal improvements in revenue [2][4] - The company's P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 15.1, 15.2, and 14.0, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 42.21 CNY based on a 21x P/E ratio for 2024 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company has established a strong position in the dairy industry through diversified product offerings and a focus on operational excellence. The dual-leader market structure in liquid milk has stabilized, enhancing revenue growth potential [1][12]. - The company aims for a net profit margin of at least 9% by 2025, reflecting its commitment to profitability amidst a challenging consumption environment [1][18]. - The report highlights the company's high dividend yield of 4.2% and a commitment to a payout ratio of at least 70% in 2024, indicating its attractiveness as a low-valuation, high-dividend stock [1][2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview and Competitive Advantage - The company has transitioned from a broad management model to a more refined approach, enhancing its profitability focus. It has diversified its product range beyond liquid milk to include ice cream, milk powder, and cheese, solidifying its market leadership [1][12]. - The management's commitment to long-term growth is reflected in the high shareholding of executives and the implementation of multiple stock incentive plans [1][24]. Section 2: Revenue Growth and Market Dynamics - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue growth due to low inventory levels and supportive policies. The liquid milk segment remains essential, with fresh milk growth outpacing traditional white milk [1][12]. - The company has seen improvements in sales performance, particularly in milk powder and ice cream, with significant growth in overseas markets [1][12]. Section 3: Profitability and Market Conditions - The report suggests that the company will benefit from upstream capacity reductions, leading to a potential balance in raw milk supply and demand by 2025. This could enhance the company's operating profit margins as milk prices recover [1][12]. - The company's current P/E ratio of 15x is considered low compared to historical and peer benchmarks, providing a safety margin for investors [1][2]. Section 4: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 2.01 CNY, 1.79 CNY, and 1.88 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The revenue forecast indicates a slight decline in 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Group (600887) [1][2] Core Views - Yili Group's 2024 Q3 revenue was 290.37 billion yuan, down 6.66% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.337 billion yuan, up 8.53% YoY [1][4] - The company's profit performance is strong despite weak dairy demand, benefiting from completed channel adjustments, cost advantages, and expense control [1][6] - With stabilizing raw milk prices and demand, Yili is expected to continue improving its operations [1][6] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue: 887.33 billion yuan, down 8.61% YoY [1][4] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit: 10.868 billion yuan, up 15.87% YoY [1][4] - 2024 Q3 liquid milk revenue: 206.37 billion yuan, down 10.31% YoY but up 24.12% QoQ [4] - 2024 Q3 milk powder revenue: 68.21 billion yuan, up 6.56% YoY [4] - 2024 Q3 ice cream revenue: 10.21 billion yuan, down 16.65% YoY [4] Profitability - 2024 Q3 gross margin: 34.85%, up 2.48 pct YoY [6] - 2024 Q3 net margin: 11.45%, up 1.63 pct YoY [6] - 2024 Q3 sales expense ratio: 19.02%, up 1.09 pct YoY [6] - Gross margin-sales expense ratio difference: up 1.39 pct [6] Industry and Market Position - Yili Group is a leading dairy products company in China [1][6] - The dairy industry is facing weak demand, but Yili's channel adjustments have improved product distribution [1][4] - The company benefits from cost advantages and has strong control over expenses [1][6] Future Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 1.18855 trillion yuan, 1.21403 trillion yuan, 1.26437 trillion yuan [7] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: 12.079 billion yuan, 11.281 billion yuan, 12.234 billion yuan [7] - 3-year CAGR for net profit: 5.47% [7] Valuation Metrics - Current price: 30.20 yuan [2] - 2024E P/E: 15.9x [7] - 2024E P/B: 3.4x [7] - 2024E EV/EBITDA: 10.2x [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Yili Industrial Group Co Ltd (600887 CH) with a target price of RMB 33.30, representing a potential upside of 15.2% from the current price of RMB 28.90 [1][2] Core Views - Yili's Q3 2024 gross margin improved to 35.0%, up 2.5 percentage points YoY and 1.2 percentage points QoQ, driven by lower raw milk prices and product mix optimization [1] - Net profit in Q3 2024 increased by 8.5% YoY to RMB 3.34 billion, with a net profit margin of 11.5%, up 1.6 percentage points YoY [1] - The liquid milk business saw double-digit declines in Q3 2024, but the decline in ambient milk improved sequentially, outperforming ambient yogurt and ambient milk beverages [1] - Yili's market share in ambient milk increased by nearly 1 percentage point in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The low-temperature milk business maintained growth, with low-temperature milk achieving double-digit growth and market share expansion [1] - The infant formula business achieved high single-digit growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with market share increasing by 2 percentage points to 13.2% [1] - Raw milk supply is expected to slow down, narrowing the supply-demand gap, with policy incentives and improved consumer sentiment likely to drive a slight recovery in dairy product demand [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 29.1 billion, down 6.7% YoY but with a narrower decline compared to Q2 2024 (down 16.5% YoY) [1] - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 119.3 billion, down 5.5% YoY, with a recovery expected in 2025E to RMB 127.4 billion, up 6.8% YoY [3] - Net profit for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 12.2 billion, up 17.7% YoY, with EPS of RMB 1.92 [3] - Gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 34.1%, up from 32.8% in 2023, with further improvement to 34.5% in 2025E [6] - ROE for 2024E is projected at 21.4%, up from 20.1% in 2023 [6] Industry and Competitive Position - The optimization of upstream supply is expected to benefit leading companies like Yili, with raw material price advantages potentially squeezing out smaller competitors [1] - Long-term demand drivers include per capita milk consumption, penetration rates, and the implementation of student milk policies [1] - Yili's competitive position is strengthened by its market share gains in ambient milk and infant formula, as well as its focus on premium products like the Jin Dian Organic series [1] Valuation - The target price of RMB 33.30 is based on 18x 2025E P/E, a 0.5 standard deviation below the 3-year historical average P/E [1] - The current P/E for 2024E is 15.1x, with a P/B ratio of 3.03x [3] - Dividend yield for 2024E is projected at 4.7%, up from 4.1% in 2023 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Yili Group (600887.SH) [1][2] Core Views - Yili Group's revenue showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement, with profits exceeding expectations. The company reported a revenue of 887.33 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 16% to 108.68 billion yuan [1][2] - The report highlights that the pressure on revenue during the adjustment period has eased, and the mismatch between raw milk supply and demand has decreased [1] - The company has completed inventory adjustments for liquid milk and is continuously developing non-dairy businesses, with Q3 liquid milk revenue at 206.37 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year, but with improved channel adjustments and product freshness [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Yili Group's revenue was 290.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 33.37 billion yuan, an increase of 9% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 increased by 2 percentage points to 34.85%, benefiting from lower raw milk costs [1] - The company expects overall performance to show quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q4 2024, with a projected net profit margin increase of 2 percentage points to 11.45% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Q3 2024 revenue from milk powder and dairy products was 68.21 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, driven by an increase in terminal selection rates and product upgrades [1] - Revenue from cold drinks and other products was 10.21 billion yuan and 1.85 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 17% and 23% [1] Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.87, 1.83, and 1.89 yuan, respectively, maintaining a PE ratio of 16 for 2024 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - Q3 revenue showed improvement compared to previous quarters, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 6.7% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 15.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters, reaching 108.7 billion yuan [1] - The company's profitability improved in Q3, with a net profit margin of 12.3%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company has initiated a share buyback program, repurchasing 7.6 billion yuan worth of shares as of October 2024, demonstrating confidence in future development [3] Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 890 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6% [1] - Q3 operating revenue was 291 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year [1] - Gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 34.8%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Sales expense ratio increased by 1.6 percentage points to 19.3% in the first three quarters [3] Product and Regional Breakdown - Liquid milk revenue was 575 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 12.1% year-on-year, but showed improvement quarter by quarter [2] - Milk powder and dairy products revenue grew by 7.1% year-on-year to 213 billion yuan, with infant formula achieving high single-digit growth [2] - Ice cream products revenue decreased by 19.6% to 83 billion yuan, but channel inventory remained healthy [2] - Revenue from North China region was 247 billion yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year, showing relatively better performance compared to other regions [2] Future Projections - The report forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company of 121 billion yuan for 2024, 114 billion yuan for 2025, and 121 billion yuan for 2026 [4] - EPS is projected to be 1.90 yuan in 2024, 1.79 yuan in 2025, and 1.91 yuan in 2026 [4] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 15x in 2024, 16x in 2025, and 15x in 2026 [4] Industry Context - The report highlights the adjustment of upstream production capacity and the expectation of a new balance in raw milk prices [4] - The company's market share in room-temperature white milk continues to increase, while low-temperature liquid milk shows growth against the trend [2]

证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20241031 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|--------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------| | | £ | 特定对象调研 £分析师会议 | | 投资者关系 | £ 媒体采访 | R 业绩说明会 | | 活动类别 | £ 新闻发布会 | £ 路演活动 | | | £现场参观 £其他 | | | 参与单位名称 | 参与伊利股份 2024 | 年第三季度业绩说明会的广大投资者 | | 及人员姓名 | | | | 时 间 | 2024 年 10 月 31 | 日上午 9:00-10:30 | | 地 点 | 电话会议及网络音频直播 | | | 公司接待 | | 公司董事会秘书邱向敏先生、独立董事纪韶女士、投资者关系 | | 人员姓名 | 部总经理赵琳女士等 | | | 投资者关系 | | 一、公司投资者关系部总经理赵琳女士对伊利股份 2024 ...

行业 乳制品/食品饮料 股价 28.30 元 目标价 35.87 元 （+26.7%） 股票代码 600887 总股本 63.66 亿股 总市值 1801.57 亿元 52 周高/低 31.96 元/21.13 元 每股净资产 8.83 元 主要股东 呼和浩特投资有限责 任公司(8.52%) 盈利摘要 股价表现 截止12月31日财政年度 2022历史 2023历史 2024预测 2025预测 2026预测 收入（百万元） 123,171 126,179 119,458 124,750 129,938 变动（%） 11.4% 2.4% -5.3% 4.4% 4.2% 净利润（百万元） 9,431 10,429 12,009 11,416 12,480 变动（%） 8.3% 10.6% 15.2% -4.9% 9.3% 每股收益（元） 1.48 1.64 1.89 1.79 1.96 市盈率@28.3元(倍) 19.1 17.3 15.0 15.8 14.4 每股派息（元） 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 股息现价比（%） 3.7% 4.2% 4.7% 4.5% 4.9% 来源: 公司资料, 第一上海预测 ...

2024 年 11 月 4 日 公司研究 收入环比改善，盈利能力增强 ——伊利股份（600887.SH）2024 年三季报点评 要点 事件：伊利股份发布 2024 年三季报，24 年前三季度实现营业收入 890.39 亿元， 同比-8.59%；归母净利润 108.68 亿元，同比+15.87%；扣非归母净利润 85.09 亿元。其中 24Q3 单季度实现营业收入 291.25 亿元，同比-6.67%；归母净利润 33.37 亿元，同比+8.53%；扣非归母净利润 31.84 亿元。 常温液奶调整销售节奏，低温品类实现逆势增长。1）液体乳 24Q3 实现收入 206.37 亿元，同比-10.31%。收入降幅环比 24Q2 有所收窄。常温液奶方面，公 司 7 月底渠道调整基本结束，8 月以来库存恢复至健康水平。常温白奶表现好于 常温酸奶和乳饮料。金典系列在强产品力和品牌力支撑下，收入表现好于基础白 奶。低温液奶保持较好表现。2）奶粉及奶制品 24Q3 实现收入 68.21 亿元，同 比+6.56%。婴配粉市场竞争格局逐步稳定，公司保持良好表现。成人粉虽有行 业竞争加剧和消费力偏弱的影响，但公司在创新推动下，仍保持 ...

[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 [Table_TargetPrice] 伊利股份(600887)公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 04 日 [Table_Title]逐步调整改善，利润水平提升 ——伊利股份 2024 年三季报点评 [Table_Invest]买入|维持 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 事件 公司公告 2024 年三季报。2024 年前三季度，公司实现总收入 890.39 亿元 （-8.59%），归母净利 108.68 亿元（+15.87%），扣非归母净利 85.09 亿元 （-4.55%）。2024Q3，公司实现总收入 291.25 亿元（-6.67%），归母净利 33.37 亿元（+8.53%），扣非归母净利 31.84 亿元（+13.42%）。 Q3 奶粉及奶制品保持增长，液体乳、冷饮收入降幅缩窄 1）Q3 奶粉及奶制品保持增长，液体乳、冷饮收入降幅缩窄。2024 年前三 季度，公司液体乳、奶粉及奶制品、冷饮、其他产品收入分别为 575.24、 213.30、83.44、5.91 亿元，同比-12.09%、+7.07%、-19 ...