研究报告 Research Report 26 Feb 2026 中国 & 中国必需消费 China (A-share) & China (Overseas) Staples 中国必选消费品 2 月价格报告：高端白酒批价环比回升，液态奶与调味品折扣减小 Premium baijiu wholesale prices and retail prices of milk & condiment rebounded MoM [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 股票名称 | 评级 | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 洋河股份 | Outperform | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 华润啤酒 | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 青岛啤酒 | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 康师傅 | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 古井贡酒 | Outperform | | ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：食品内参 作者丨佑木 编审丨橘子 近日，天图投资发布公告称，已完成向昆山诺源睿源出售优诺中国约86.96%的股权，总价约15.65亿元 人民币。至此，这家以"消费投资第一股"自居的机构彻底告别了曾被其寄予厚望的法国酸奶品牌优诺 （Yoplait）。 在资本的牌桌上，接棒的是IDG资本。加上管理层持有的股份，IDG以总对价约18亿元人民币的价格， 全资接手了优诺中国。 傲慢的代价 优诺进入中国的时间，踩在了中国中产阶级对"溢价"最执着的年份。 2013年，全球第二大酸奶品牌优诺由通用磨坊（General Mills）引入中国。彼时，通用磨坊在中国风头 正劲，手里握着哈根达斯和湾仔码头两张王牌。在跨国巨头的逻辑里，只要把哈根达斯的渠道和品牌势 能分给优诺，高端酸奶的江山便唾手可得。 天图接手时的价格相当划算。根据后续披露，其初始收购成本仅约3亿元人民币。在接下来的六年里， 天图确实给优诺"续了命"。 天图对优诺的改造逻辑是：去外企化，本土化。他们不再死守那杯高价酸奶，而是把产品线拉长，延伸 到了低温鲜奶、冰淇淋，甚至是酸奶奶昔。在渠道 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry [3] Core Insights - The current operating cycle for mass consumer goods has been characterized by oversupply, leading to declines in price and profit margins [9] - Demand has weakened since 2021, with restaurant demand growth dropping from double digits to low single digits [9] - Prices for mass consumer goods have been on a downward trend since 2021, with leading companies experiencing significant price reductions [9] - The report anticipates that prices may have reached a bottom in 2025, with potential for recovery in 2026 if demand improves [27] Summary by Sections Review of Current Operating Cycle - The food and beverage sector has faced a supply-demand imbalance, resulting in continuous price declines from 2021 to 2025, affecting prices, profits, and valuations [12] - Capital expenditure in the mass consumer goods sector grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% from 2017 to 2022, leading to significant capacity expansion [9][12] Price Outlook for 2025 - The report suggests that prices may have reached a phase of stabilization, with indicators showing improvements in consumer price index (CPI) and food CPI [27] - Restaurant revenue data indicates a potential bottoming out of demand, with a recovery in consumer spending expected [27] Investment Recommendations - For the restaurant supply chain, the report recommends focusing on frozen foods, seasoning products, and beer, highlighting companies like Anjuke Foods and Yihai International for their market share growth and pricing strategies [42][43] - In the dairy industry, the report suggests monitoring companies such as Modern Farming and Yili Group, anticipating price improvements in the second half of 2026 [42][43]

180治理ETF交银（510010）业绩比较基准为上证180公司治理指数，管理人为交银施罗德基金管理有限 公司，基金经理为邵文婷、蔡铮，成立（2009-09-25）以来回报为102.94%，近一个月回报为1.90%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月25日，截止午间收盘，180治理ETF交银（510010）涨0.77%，报1.836元，成交额41.85万元。180治 理ETF交银（510010）重仓股方面，贵州茅台截止午盘涨2.59%，中国平安涨1.75%，招商银行涨 0.15%，紫金矿业涨2.19%，工商银行涨0.00%，兴业银行涨0.71%，长江电力涨0.31%，恒瑞医药涨 0.07%，伊利股份涨0.76%，京沪高铁涨0.61%。 ...

24 February 2026 | 12:16AM HKT Equity Research China Consumer Staples: LNY expert calls: Spirits: Moutai/Wuliangye pivoting to recovery path; Dairy saw disciplined pricing yet unexciting On Feb 23, we hosted an expert call with a large spirits and F&B distributor located in Hunan province. Key highlights: 1) Spirits: Feitian Moutai volume/pricing topped expectations during the CNY period in the expert's region, with Feitian Moutai spirits retail sales volume up >20% yoy offsetting shipment control on non-st ...

短期内中国乳制品需求疲弱，但中长期人均消费仍有提升空间。低温产 品在三四线城市渗透带来结构性机会，乳深加工产品发展及产能释放将 显著消耗原奶。 奶价变化直接影响下游乳品企业收入和盈利。低迷期企业经历戴维斯双 杀，复苏期迎来戴维斯双击。预计 2026 年出现新一轮周期拐点， 2027-28 年深加工产能释放将迎来戴维斯双击。 乳制品行业深度《原奶价格周期向上，板块配置价值愈 显》20260223 摘要 2008 年以来，中国奶价呈现周期性波动，受春节需求、冬季供给下降 等因素影响，1 月达到高峰，4-5 月跌至谷底。三聚氰胺事件、口蹄疫 和疫情等偶发事件也显著扰动奶价。 国内原奶供给受奶牛存栏量和单产影响，饲料价格、补贴政策、环保政 策和养殖预期影响存栏量，育种和饲喂技术影响单产。进口乳制品价格 对国内奶价有替代作用。 国内种奶牛场存栏量自 2023 年增长，但胚胎量下降预示未来扩群或放 缓。规模化养殖比例接近 80%，提高了生产效率。新西兰等地的进口大 包粉价格直接影响国内原奶市场。 牛肉价格上涨对奶价周期产生影响，但短期内（2026 年）奶价难以大 幅回升，养殖场经营压力仍然存在。玉米价格上涨可能带动生鲜乳 ...

陈文博 中金公司食品饮料分析师: 位投资人，大家上午好。那也祝大家新年好，以及开工大吉。那今天上午，是中金组织的 大众食品的春节的情况跟踪电话会。我是中金的食品饮料组陈文博。那今天上午，我们请 到了两位综合的食品的专家与大家分享春节的情况。那第一位专家，主要负责华东、华中 以及华西地区的包括饮料，还有零食等大大的一些品类的运营。专家您好，能听到我说话 吗？ 华东华中华西食品综合专家: 你好，可以，没问题。 陈文博 中金公司食品饮料分析师: 对，那我们就开始。那第一个，首先我想问问，就是您代理的这个品类也比较多，那想问 一下春节期间，比如说这个几个大的品类，像乳制品、饮料、零食、速冻。包括调味品， 这几个品类分别的增速情况，和景气度。然后就综合来看的话，有没有什么地方比咱们之 前预期的要好，或者是要差的？ 华东华中华西食品综合专家: 我们先按照您刚才说的那个品类来说，我们今年的这个总体的品类分成像修石，修石我们 今年的整体性，春节的一二月份，这二月份我们是截止到 2 月 10 号左右。节前的这个数 据，那我们整体的出货比去年同期我们是增长了 10%左右，这所有的修饰，这里面主要是 以礼盒为主，这个品相。那从整个 ...

今日（2.24），大消费板块冲高回落，盘初一度涨超1%，规模领先的消费ETF（159928）转跌0.64%，盘中成交额已超3.6亿元！资金再度青睐，盘中获2400 万份净申购。最新规模超223亿元，同类持续领先！ 消息面上，春节出行强度提升，春节假期前6日全社会累计跨区域人员流动量增速较春运返乡阶段进一步上行。消费迎来开门红，商品消费需求旺盛、服务 消费活力满满。旅游市场热度高涨，"分段式过年"普及，主题上"南下避寒、北上冰雪"双线并行，出入境旅游双向增长。春节档电影方面，票房明显走弱。 政策面上，高层杂志发表重要文章《当前经济工作的重点任务》；我国将对53个非洲建交国全面实施零关税举措；加大农村地区企业上市辅导培育力度，帮 助更多企业利用多层次资本市场进行融资；三部门发布重要五年规划期间支持科技创新进口税收优惠政策。 东吴证券指出，历史上A股"春节效应"特征显著，节后资金有望"重振旗鼓"带动量价共振修复，A股有望迎来积极开局。春节休市期间全球股市多数上涨， 全球风险偏好较优。流动性层面，美降息路径虽存变数，但市场对全年流动性预期未显著恶化；离岸人民币汇率假期运行平稳。内需方面，动能稳步修复。 产业趋势层面， ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival consumption exceeded expectations, with service consumption leading the growth, driven by a significant increase in dining and travel demand [2][7] - The report highlights a notable recovery in the travel sector, with an expected total of 9.5 billion people traveling during the Spring Festival, marking a historical high [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of quality and experience in consumer spending, with a shift towards premium products and services [7][19] Summary by Sections 1. Spring Festival Consumption Trends - The Spring Festival holiday from February 15 to 23, 2026, saw a "good start" in consumption, with key retail and dining enterprises reporting a 10.6% increase in average daily sales compared to the same period in 2025 [10][22] - The first four days of the holiday recorded an 8.6% increase in average daily sales for key retail and dining enterprises compared to the previous year [10][19] - Government initiatives, including a 20.5 billion yuan fund for consumer subsidies, significantly boosted consumer spending [11][10] 2. Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Market - The Baijiu market showed signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline compared to previous major holidays, although brand differentiation became more pronounced [27][30] - High-end Baijiu brands like Moutai and Wuliangye continued to lead the market, with a focus on price elasticity and rational consumer behavior [27][30] - The report identifies three key changes in the Baijiu market: increased importance of personal consumption, a more relaxed approach from manufacturers regarding sales targets, and improved channel sentiment [30][31] 3. Snack and Food Market - The snack market is expected to benefit from an extended peak season, with a longer preparation and sales cycle compared to 2025 [33][34] - Offline channels, particularly membership-based supermarkets and discount stores, are performing better than online channels, with significant growth in sales during the holiday period [34][35] - The report notes a diversification in snack offerings, with strong performance in high-quality nut gift boxes and innovative packaging strategies enhancing brand visibility [35][36]

转自：草原云 新闻编辑：李超然 2月21日，伊利现代智慧健康谷液态奶全球智造标杆基地内，工作人员在生产线前忙碌。春节期间，乳 制品市场订单量持续攀升，该企业多条生产线马力全开、高速运转，坚持生产不打烊、保供不断档，全 力保障市场供应。 内蒙古日报·草原云记者：王智华 ...