Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 14.736 billion yuan, down 2.19% year-on-year, and net profit at 3.815 billion yuan, down 5.48%, slightly below expectations [1] - The installed capacity of wind and solar power continued to grow, but the utilization hours decreased, leading to a slowdown in growth rates for wind and solar generation [1] - The average on-grid electricity price faced pressure due to changes in electricity structure and increased market transactions, resulting in a decline in revenue from wind and solar segments [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved a total power generation of 39.314 billion kWh, an increase of 8.85% year-on-year, with wind power generation at 25.061 billion kWh (up 8.69%) and solar power generation at 13.911 billion kWh (up 10.25%) [1] - The average on-grid electricity price for the company was 381 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 9.89% year-on-year, with wind power price at 410 yuan/MWh (down 9.97%) and solar power price at 328 yuan/MWh (down 11.90%) [2] - Operating cash flow increased by 1.62% to 8.247 billion yuan, indicating stable cash flow performance despite profit decline [2] Group 2: Capacity and Utilization - The company added 2.1807 million kW of new installed capacity in 1H25, with wind power contributing 0.5381 million kW and solar power contributing 1.6426 million kW [1] - As of mid-2025, the cumulative installed capacity reached 22.9702 million kW for wind power and 25.9055 million kW for solar power [1] - The average utilization hours for wind power decreased by 97 hours to 1,146 hours, while solar power utilization hours decreased by 96 hours to 597 hours [1] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 6.383 billion yuan, 7.409 billion yuan, and 8.093 billion yuan, down from previous estimates [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19, 16, and 15 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 14,736 million yuan, down 2.19% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3,815 million yuan, down 5.48% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [7] - The installed capacity continues to grow, but the decrease in utilization hours has led to a slowdown in the growth of wind and solar power generation [7] - The average on-grid electricity price has come under pressure due to changes in electricity structure and increased market transactions, with a year-on-year decline of 9.89% to 381 yuan/MWh [7] - Operating cash flow remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 1.62% to 8,247 million yuan, despite profit pressures [7] - The profit forecast has been adjusted downwards for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates of 63.83 billion yuan, 74.09 billion yuan, and 80.93 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 30,628 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.1% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 6,383 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.4% [6] - Earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 0.22 yuan [6] - The company's gross profit margin is projected to be 48.7% for 2025 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is estimated at 7.0% for 2025 [6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On September 2, a total of 33 target price adjustments were made by brokerages for listed companies, with notable increases in target prices for Zhongcai International, Zhucheng Technology, and Guangyun Technology, reflecting significant potential upside in their respective sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Target Price Increases - Zhongcai International received a target price increase of 43.65%, with a new target price of 13.00 yuan [2]. - Zhucheng Technology's target price was raised by 41.51%, now set at 75.00 yuan [2]. - Guangyun Technology saw a target price increase of 35.72%, with a new target price of 22.00 yuan [2]. Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 35 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on September 2, with notable mentions including Datang Power and China General Nuclear Power, each receiving one recommendation [3]. - Guangyun Technology's rating was upgraded from "Hold" to "Increase" by CITIC Securities [5]. Group 3: Rating Adjustments - One company, Yihua Tong, had its rating downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold" by Changjiang Securities [6]. - The only company receiving a new coverage rating was Chifeng Gold, which was rated "Buy" by CITIC Securities [7].

Group 1 - The China Securities Index for Public Utilities (000995) increased by 0.89% as of September 2, 2025, with notable gains from Shanghai Electric (600021) up 9.98%, Jilin Electric Power (000875) up 5.98%, and Huaneng Hydropower (600025) up 2.32% [1] - In July, the total electricity consumption in China reached 10,226 billion kilowatt-hours, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase, with monthly consumption surpassing 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, indicating strong demand [1] - Dongguan Securities highlighted that the first and third industries, along with urban and rural residential electricity consumption, experienced rapid growth, while the average price of thermal coal decreased year-on-year, benefiting the profitability of thermal power companies [1] Group 2 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index for Public Utilities (000995) include Yangtze Power (600900), China Nuclear Power (601985), and Three Gorges Energy (600905), collectively accounting for 56.01% of the index [2]

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the internal tension between investment and consumption in China's economy, highlighting that the concentration of capital income among high-income groups leads to a low marginal propensity to consume, which is a primary source of investment [10][11] - It emphasizes that the imbalance between capital income and consumption demand has resulted in a continuous rise in China's capital-output ratio and a decline in capital return rates, making investment-driven growth unsustainable [10][11] Industry and Company - The automotive industry saw a 12% year-on-year increase in wholesale sales of passenger vehicles from August 1 to 24, 2025, with the collaboration between Huawei and SAIC for the H5 model opening for pre-orders [14][15] - The media and internet sector reported a 2.99% increase in industry performance, with OpenAI launching the GPT-Realtime voice model and the summer box office surpassing 11.8 billion yuan [18][21] - The public utility and environmental protection sector is focusing on the ongoing construction of a national carbon market, which is expected to drive urban green and low-carbon transformation [22][23] - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a price increase in mainstream refrigerants, with R32 and R134a expected to see stable price growth due to limited supply and strong demand [25][29] - Yili Group reported a 5.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q2 2025, with improvements in profitability driven by a decrease in raw milk prices and better cost management [31][33] - Huadian International's revenue decreased by 8.98% in H1 2025 due to lower electricity prices and generation, but net profit increased by 13.15% due to reduced fuel costs [34]

Group 1: ETF Performance - The New Energy ETF has a recent trading volume of 4.6% and a transaction value of 45.71 million yuan, with an average daily transaction of 88.03 million yuan over the past week [2] - The latest scale of the New Energy ETF reached 985 million yuan, marking a three-month high, with a significant increase of 60 million shares over the past week [2] - The New Energy ETF has seen a net inflow of 75.97 million yuan, and its net value has increased by 17.29% over the past six months [2] Group 2: Historical Returns - Since its inception, the New Energy ETF has recorded a highest monthly return of 25.07%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being four months and a maximum increase of 31.31% [2] - The average return during the rising months is 8.03%, and the ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized return of 7.93% over the last three months [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The domestic photovoltaic glass market has seen good overall transactions, with inventory continuously decreasing and order prices increasing in September [4] - The price of 2.0mm coated glass has risen from 11 yuan/square meter to 13 yuan/square meter, reflecting an 18.18% month-on-month increase, while 3.2mm coated glass prices increased from 18.5-19 yuan/square meter to 20 yuan/square meter, a 6.67% rise [4] Group 4: Cost and Pricing Trends - Since late August, prices for silicon materials, silicon wafers, and battery cells have risen, along with increases in auxiliary materials like photovoltaic adhesive films and glass, providing cost support [5] - The recent bidding prices for component procurement have increased, driven by costs, although demand has not shown significant improvement, leading to a potential ongoing negotiation on actual transaction prices [5] Group 5: Key Stocks in the Index - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities New Energy Index include CATL, Sungrow, LONGi Green Energy, China Nuclear Power, and others, collectively accounting for 42.78% of the index [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating to the company, indicating a performance expectation within a range of -5% to 10% relative to the benchmark index [11]. Core Insights - The company's projected revenue for 2024 is 29,717.04 million, with a slight increase to 30,000.49 million in 2025, and further growth expected to reach 36,180.64 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.53% from 2025 to 2027 [7]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 7,457.54 million, with a slight decline to 7,425.99 million in 2025, followed by a recovery to 8,850.79 million by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability over the forecast period [7]. - The company's EBITDA is projected to grow from 24,878.00 million in 2024 to 31,640.16 million in 2027, showcasing a robust operational performance [7]. Financial Summary - **Balance Sheet**: Total assets are expected to increase from 356,871.43 million in 2024 to 415,372.46 million by 2027, with a corresponding rise in total liabilities from 253,224.90 million to 293,674.64 million [6]. - **Cash Flow Statement**: Operating cash flow is projected to rise from 18,897.33 million in 2024 to 29,222.70 million in 2027, indicating improved cash generation capabilities [6]. - **Profitability Ratios**: The gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 52.63% in 2024 to 45.88% in 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 20% [7]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.21 in 2024 to 0.26 in 2027, reflecting a positive outlook for shareholder returns [7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 20.47 in 2024 to 16.17 by 2027, suggesting potential undervaluation as earnings grow [7]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 7.05% in 2024 to 7.44% in 2027, indicating enhanced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity [7].

Market Overview - In August, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 10.33%, while the public utility index increased by 2.53% and the environmental index by 5.28% [1][22] - The public utility and environmental sectors ranked 25th and 21st respectively among 31 first-level industry classifications [1][22] - The environmental sector saw a 5.28% increase, with sub-sectors such as thermal power up by 4.69% and new energy generation up by 2.26% [1][22] Important Policies and Events - The Central Committee and State Council issued opinions on promoting green and low-carbon transformation, aiming for a nationwide carbon trading market to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 [14][15] - The opinions also emphasize energy conservation and carbon reduction in production, promoting green lifestyles, and enhancing urban ecological environment governance [15][16] Investment Strategy - Public Utilities: - Thermal power profitability is expected to remain reasonable due to synchronized declines in coal and electricity prices, recommending companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [3][21] - Continuous policy support for new energy development is anticipated to stabilize profitability, recommending leading companies such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][21] - Nuclear power companies are expected to maintain stable profitability, recommending China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [3][21] - High-dividend hydropower stocks are highlighted for their defensive attributes, recommending Changjiang Power [3][21] - For gas, companies with regional advantages like China Resources Gas are recommended [3][21] - Environmental Sector: - The water and waste incineration sectors are entering maturity, with improved free cash flow, recommending Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [3][21] - The domestic scientific instrument market presents significant opportunities, recommending Focused Photonics [3][21] - The EU's SAF policy is expected to benefit the domestic waste oil recycling industry, recommending Shanggou Environmental Energy [3][21] - The agricultural biomass power generation sector is seeing cost improvements, recommending Changqing Group [3][21] Industry Key Data Overview - In July, the total electricity consumption reached 1,022.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6% [59] - The cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy reached 1.41 billion kW by the end of 2024, accounting for 42% of total installed capacity [19] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 188 hours compared to the previous year [76]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 4.83 [1][9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance but continues to expand its scale. It remains a leader in offshore wind power with a rich pipeline of projects under construction and awaiting approval. The company’s net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% from 2025 to 2027 [6][7][9]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 14.736 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.815 billion, down 5.5% year-on-year. The second quarter saw revenue of RMB 7.107 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% [6][8]. - The company’s average on-grid electricity price decreased by 10% year-on-year to RMB 386/MWh, with net profit per MWh down 36% to RMB 93 [8]. Operational Highlights - As of June 2025, the company had a total installed capacity of 49.94 GW, with 2.18 GW added in the first half of the year. The breakdown includes 7.15 GW of offshore wind, 15.82 GW of onshore wind, and 25.91 GW of solar power [7]. - The company holds a 16.2% market share in offshore wind power, 3.0% in onshore wind, and 2.4% in solar power in China [7]. Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 is RMB 31.239 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.12%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 6.493 billion, reflecting a growth of 6.24% [5][9]. - The company’s EPS is expected to be RMB 0.23 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 18.71 [5][9]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s current market capitalization is RMB 121.498 billion, with a closing price of RMB 4.25 as of August 29 [2][5]. - The company’s PEG ratio is projected at 1.32x for 2025, with a target price based on a 20x PE multiple [9][21].

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月01日 三峡能源（600905.SH） 优于大市 利用小时数、电价下降影响利润，新能源项目建设稳步推进 2025Q2 营业收入小幅下降，扣非归母净利润降幅较大。2025 年上半年，公 司实现营业收入 147.36 亿元（-2.19%），归母净利润 38.15 亿元 （-5.48%），扣非归母净利润 32.00 亿元（-20.74%）。2025 年第二季 度，公司实现营业收入 71.07 亿元（-0.79%），归母净利润 13.68 亿元 （-15.41%），扣非归母净利润 11.16 亿元（-31.02%）。公司营业收入 和归母净利润下降的原因：（1）受电源分布和各地区消纳情况综合影 响，发电平均利用小时数同比下降；（2）上网电量结构变化和市场化 交易电量比重上升，综合平均电价同比有所下降；（3）随着并网项目 陆续投产，折旧及运营成本随在建工程转固同比增加。公司扣非归母净 利润下降幅度较大的原因：2025 年上半年，公司处置参控股水电公司股 权及相关债权，投资收益较同比增加 4.66 亿元，导致非经常性收益较 高。 新能源项目建设推进，装机容量持续增长。公司围绕"沙戈荒大基地 ...