Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial sector is "Outperform the Market" [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the securities industry is entering a new phase of mergers and acquisitions, termed "M&A 2.0," which emphasizes functional enhancement and the creation of a complementary business ecosystem rather than merely increasing capital size [3][5]. - The report highlights that recent mergers, such as the absorption of Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities by CICC, reflect a shift towards strengthening professional capabilities and expanding business lines [4][18]. - The overall improvement in the securities industry's fundamentals, including active market trading and growth in margin financing, is expected to drive both valuations and profitability for brokerages [4][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes a significant wave of mergers and restructuring in China's securities industry, driven by both policy support and market competition. The aim is to cultivate leading investment banks and enhance core competitiveness through consolidation [6][10]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, 43 listed brokerages achieved revenue of CNY 421.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.57%, and a net profit of CNY 169.29 billion, up 62.48% [6]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is highlighted as a scale-driven consolidation, significantly enhancing net capital strength and risk tolerance, while optimizing the national network layout [15][17]. - CICC's merger with Dongxing and Xinda Securities is characterized as a functional superiority-driven integration, aimed at enhancing business capabilities and expanding service offerings [18][20]. Business Structure and Performance - The report outlines a dual-driven characteristic in the securities industry, with brokerage and proprietary trading as the main revenue drivers. In the first three quarters of 2025, brokerage income reached CNY 111.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 74.64% [11]. - The revenue structure is shifting, with brokerage income accounting for 26.5%, investment income 44.4%, and other segments contributing to the overall performance [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent mergers are likely to stimulate investment enthusiasm in the industry. It recommends focusing on leading brokerages with comprehensive performance layouts and those with high elasticity in earnings, such as Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities [22].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a major asset restructuring involving China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities indicates a significant consolidation in the securities industry, potentially creating a new major player with assets exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1][2] Group 1: Company Mergers - CICC is planning to absorb Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through the issuance of A-shares, leading to a merger of the three companies [1] - If the merger is successful, the combined asset scale will reach 1,009.5 billion yuan, positioning the new entity as the fourth largest in China's securities industry [1] - The merger reflects a trend of increasing consolidation in the securities sector, with several recent high-profile mergers and acquisitions [1][2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The securities industry is experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions driven by regulatory support and the need for larger firms to enhance their competitive edge [2] - Larger brokerages are acquiring smaller firms to fill gaps in their service offerings and achieve economies of scale, while smaller firms aim to grow rapidly through mergers [2] - The shift from "land grabbing" to "fine cultivation" in strategy indicates a more competitive landscape, necessitating firms to improve their comprehensive capabilities [2] Group 3: Challenges of Integration - The integration of merged firms poses significant challenges, including the need for cultural integration, business system coordination, and organizational structure optimization [3] - The success of the merger will depend on the management's ability to create synergies that exceed the sum of the individual companies [3]

Core Insights - The securities ETF (159841) experienced a turnover of 6.07% with a transaction volume of 632 million yuan, while the tracked index, the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index (399975), fell by 3.44% [1] - The securities ETF saw a significant inflow of 253 million units, reaching a new high of 9.842 billion units since its inception [2] - The brokerage industry is undergoing consolidation, with China International Capital Corporation (CICC) planning to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, potentially creating a new major player in the market [6] Group 1: Securities ETF Performance - The securities ETF (159841) had a net inflow of 206 million yuan, with a total of 379 million yuan accumulated over the last five trading days [2] - Major constituent stocks such as Huachuang Yuxin (600155) and Northeast Securities (000686) saw declines of 7.14% and 6.36%, respectively [1] - The ETF's performance is closely tied to the capital market, often acting as a "bull market flag bearer" [3] Group 2: Industry Trends - The brokerage sector reported a significant increase in revenue and profit, with 42 listed brokerages achieving a total revenue of 418.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.96%, and a net profit of 171.04 billion yuan, up 62.06% [6] - The industry is expected to benefit from policy-driven opportunities, including the enhancement of capital market inclusivity and the promotion of long-term investment channels [7] - The consolidation of brokerages is anticipated to strengthen the capital base and international competitiveness of leading firms [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent merger announcement by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) to absorb Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through a share swap, indicating a trend towards consolidation among leading brokerages [2][4] - In the insurance sector, the third-quarter reports confirm a shift towards equity investments and improved cost structures, suggesting a higher certainty of ROE improvement and potential for accelerated valuation recovery [2][4] - The overall cost-effectiveness of investment in the sector is gradually increasing, with ongoing revaluation of the sector [4] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - CICC's merger with Dongxing and Xinda Securities reflects a long-term trend of concentration among top firms [4] - The brokerage sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability as commission rates stabilize [41] Insurance Sector - The insurance industry reported significant growth in value, premiums, and profits, with a cumulative premium income of CNY 52,146 billion in September 2025, marking an 8.76% year-on-year increase [23][24] - The report emphasizes the stability of dividends and profit growth in companies like Jiangsu Jinzu and China Ping An, which are recommended for investment [4] Market Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 4.4% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 2.8%, indicating a mixed performance relative to the broader market [5][19] - The average daily trading volume in the market has decreased to CNY 18,650.36 billion, down 8.75% from the previous period [41] Financing Activities - In October 2025, equity financing increased to CNY 501.42 billion, a 20.4% rise, while bond financing decreased to CNY 6.56 trillion, a 19.2% drop [53] - The report notes a decline in the issuance of collective asset management products, with a new issuance of 4.183 billion units in October, down 37.3% [56]

Core Insights - The merger and acquisition (M&A) market in China is experiencing a significant increase, with 151 companies disclosing M&A activities as of November 23, surpassing last year's figures, driven by strategic collaboration and industry chain enhancement [1] - The trend indicates that M&A activities will continue to be active, particularly led by leading enterprises and industry chain leaders, focusing on horizontal collaboration and vertical extension [1][4] - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are expected to play a crucial role in industry consolidation, benefiting from favorable policies [1][4] Industry Trends - M&A activities are increasingly oriented towards industry chain reinforcement and supplementation, with companies acquiring key technologies and capacities to enhance competitiveness and optimize industry structure [1][2] - The dual driving force of innovation and M&A integration is evident, as mature companies with stable fundamentals are entering a conducive environment for M&A [1][2] - The securities industry is witnessing a wave of consolidation, exemplified by the merger plans of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities [2] Financial Support and Policy Environment - The establishment of M&A funds by leading enterprises and state-owned entities is crucial for securing key technologies and enhancing industry chain resilience [2][3] - Recent policies from various regions encourage the formation of M&A funds, with Beijing and Tianjin outlining support for high-quality development through M&A [3] - The Shanghai government has proposed a 50 billion yuan fund to support industrial transformation and upgrade, indicating strong governmental backing for M&A activities [3] Future Outlook - The M&A market is expected to benefit from targeted policy support, with qualified enterprises likely to receive more favorable treatment, further boosting M&A activity [4] - Cross-border M&A is anticipated to be a vital strategy for Chinese companies to overcome growth bottlenecks and connect with global resources [4] - Recommendations for enhancing cross-border M&A capabilities include building professional teams, selecting specialized intermediaries, and strengthening post-merger integration processes [5]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 证券行业并购稳步推进；保险业总资产突破 40 万亿 增持（维持） 相关研究 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：1）宏观经济不及预期；2）政策趋紧抑制行业创新；3）市场 竞争加剧风险。 2025 年 11 月 23 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600525090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 2024/11/25 2025/3/25 2025/7/23 2025/11/20 非银金融 沪深300 《中金公司拟换股合并东兴证券、信 达证券，资产规模将破万亿元》 2025-11-20 《金融科技 2026 年投资策略-- 短期 看市场活跃的持续性，中期关注金融 IT》 2025-11-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现：最近 5 个交易日（2025 ...

Core Viewpoints - Current risk release provides an opportunity for reallocating A-shares and Hong Kong stocks by year-end and planning for 2026 [2] - The AI sector is experiencing a "darkest hour," but long-term confidence remains unwavering [4] - The adjustment phase is merely a "doubtful bull market level" [11] Industry Insights - Focus on resource and traditional manufacturing opportunities, particularly in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [3] - The AI industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with significant valuation growth potential for A-share companies [8] - The market is likely to experience a style switch, with increasing attention on low-valued sectors [6] Investment Recommendations - Emphasize sectors benefiting from physical asset consumption, such as upstream resources (copper, aluminum, lithium, oil, coal) and midstream industries [5] - Maintain a balanced allocation between growth sectors and undervalued value industries, particularly in the consumer sector as year-end approaches [10] - Focus on AI applications and sectors closely related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," such as hydrogen energy, nuclear energy, and quantum technology [14]

Domestic Macro Policy - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand to further promote consumption, with a strategic emphasis on the "Two Heavy" construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan period[2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has recommended 105 infrastructure REITs projects, with a total fund issuance of 207 billion yuan, expected to drive over 1 trillion yuan in new project investments[12] - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes improving the effectiveness of fiscal policy and macroeconomic regulation to better promote high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period[14] Infrastructure and Industry Policy - By 2030, a multi-level and efficient renewable energy consumption and regulation system is expected to be established, with new electricity demand primarily met by new renewable energy generation[3] - As of October 29, 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools have been fully deployed, supporting key areas of private investment projects[12] Real Estate Policy - Policies are being implemented to accelerate the construction of quality housing and promote urban renewal actions across various cities, including Shanghai and Chengdu[16] Financial Regulation - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) announced a merger with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through a share swap, aiming to enhance its capabilities in the investment banking sector[18] Overseas Macro Policy - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has increased to approximately 70%, with significant discussions among officials regarding the need for further rate adjustments[23] - The U.S. government has ended its shutdown, which had significant economic implications, with losses estimated at 1.5 trillion yuan[26] Risk Warning - There is a persistent divergence in domestic and foreign monetary policies, with domestic policy execution potentially falling short of expectations[29]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) to absorb and merge with China Securities and Dongxing Securities marks a significant event in the A-share brokerage sector, indicating a strategic acceleration towards building a first-class investment bank within the state-owned capital system [2][4][8]. Group 1: Merger Details - CICC plans to conduct a share swap to absorb China Securities and Dongxing Securities, which will result in a combined total asset scale exceeding 1 trillion yuan and a net asset scale of nearly 175 billion yuan, making it the largest brokerage under the "Hui Jin" system [4][5]. - This merger is unprecedented in the brokerage industry, as it combines three firms simultaneously, exceeding market expectations that primarily focused on the merger of individual pairs [4][8]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the A-share brokerage sector experienced a surge in trading volume, although it faced a decline in stock prices shortly after, reflecting cautious market sentiment [3][5]. - The overall market saw significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 2.45% and the ChiNext Index falling 4.02% on November 21, indicating a broader market pullback affecting the brokerage sector [3]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The merger is seen as a catalyst for further consolidation in the brokerage industry, with expectations that state-owned brokerages will increasingly pursue mergers to enhance competitiveness [6][9]. - Analysts believe that this merger could lead to a more concentrated market structure, potentially pushing smaller brokerages towards mergers or acquisitions as a means of survival and growth [9][10]. - The integration of CICC, China Securities, and Dongxing Securities is expected to enhance CICC's competitive position, potentially elevating its industry ranking from 9th or 10th to 4th or 6th [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing trend of mergers and acquisitions in the brokerage sector is anticipated to continue, driven by regulatory support for leading firms to strengthen through consolidation [6][7]. - The long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations that the merger will catalyze a new wave of industry restructuring, enhancing the overall competitive landscape and potentially leading to improved return on equity (ROE) for leading firms [10].

Key Points - The Chinese government is focused on enhancing foreign trade quality and efficiency, aiming to streamline the construction of a unified national market and support high-quality manufacturing development [1][2] - The Dutch government has suspended an administrative order against ASML, which is seen as a step towards resolving global semiconductor supply chain issues, although further actions are needed [2] - The fourth high-level financial dialogue between China and Germany welcomed qualified companies from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges to issue Global Depositary Receipts (GDR) in Frankfurt [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance announced the successful issuance of €4 billion in sovereign bonds, with a focus on enhancing financial stability [4] - In October, China's total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with significant growth in the service sector and residential electricity use [5] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to October, 53,782 new foreign-invested enterprises were established, marking a 14.7% increase year-on-year, although actual foreign investment decreased by 10.3% [6][7]