Domestic Macro Policy - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand to further promote consumption, with a strategic emphasis on the "Two Heavy" construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan period[2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has recommended 105 infrastructure REITs projects, with a total fund issuance of 207 billion yuan, expected to drive over 1 trillion yuan in new project investments[12] - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes improving the effectiveness of fiscal policy and macroeconomic regulation to better promote high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period[14] Infrastructure and Industry Policy - By 2030, a multi-level and efficient renewable energy consumption and regulation system is expected to be established, with new electricity demand primarily met by new renewable energy generation[3] - As of October 29, 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools have been fully deployed, supporting key areas of private investment projects[12] Real Estate Policy - Policies are being implemented to accelerate the construction of quality housing and promote urban renewal actions across various cities, including Shanghai and Chengdu[16] Financial Regulation - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) announced a merger with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through a share swap, aiming to enhance its capabilities in the investment banking sector[18] Overseas Macro Policy - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has increased to approximately 70%, with significant discussions among officials regarding the need for further rate adjustments[23] - The U.S. government has ended its shutdown, which had significant economic implications, with losses estimated at 1.5 trillion yuan[26] Risk Warning - There is a persistent divergence in domestic and foreign monetary policies, with domestic policy execution potentially falling short of expectations[29]

每经记者｜王海慜 每经编辑｜赵云 11月19日晚间，中金公司（SH601995，前收盘价34.89元，市值1684.00亿元）发布公告称，公司拟换股 吸收合并信达证券（SH601059，前收盘价17.79元，市值 576.93 亿元）、东兴证券（SH601198，前收 盘价13.13元，市值424.42亿元）。 上述消息在市场舆论中激起千层浪。市场各方对A股券商板块预期高涨。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，随之而来的是，这场史无前例的"三合一"合并案例在券商行业引发大量 讨论。中信证券非银团队认为，这次"汇金系"3家券商合并，标志着国资体系通过并购重组"加快建设一 流投资银行"的战略路线图正在加速落地。 11月20日，A股券商板块成交额明显放量，但全天高开低走，收跌0.5%。 11月21日，A股市场单边大幅回调，市场逾5000股下跌，沪指跌2.45%失守3900点，创业板指跌4.02%， 科创50跌3.19%。证券板块同样跟随大盘受挫，证券ETF龙头（560090）大跌3.45%，收长阴线，弱 势"两连阴"，资金持续"高切低"涌入证券板块，证券ETF龙头（560090）近5日强势吸金超1亿元。 抛开短期行情，此 ...

Key Points - The Chinese government is focused on enhancing foreign trade quality and efficiency, aiming to streamline the construction of a unified national market and support high-quality manufacturing development [1][2] - The Dutch government has suspended an administrative order against ASML, which is seen as a step towards resolving global semiconductor supply chain issues, although further actions are needed [2] - The fourth high-level financial dialogue between China and Germany welcomed qualified companies from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges to issue Global Depositary Receipts (GDR) in Frankfurt [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance announced the successful issuance of €4 billion in sovereign bonds, with a focus on enhancing financial stability [4] - In October, China's total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with significant growth in the service sector and residential electricity use [5] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to October, 53,782 new foreign-invested enterprises were established, marking a 14.7% increase year-on-year, although actual foreign investment decreased by 10.3% [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the non-banking financial sector, with specific recommendations for leading brokerage firms and undervalued insurance companies [4][19][20]. Core Insights - The integration of brokerages under the Huijin system is expected to drive a new wave of consolidation in the securities industry, enhancing the competitive landscape and potentially increasing the market share of major players like China International Capital Corporation (CICC) [4][31]. - The report highlights the significant growth in the insurance asset management sector, with a year-on-year increase of 36% in stock allocation, indicating a robust investment environment [4][19]. - The international expansion of Chinese brokerages, particularly in Southeast Asia, is a key focus, with acquisitions of local firms to mitigate operational challenges in foreign markets [4][20]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,453.61, reflecting a decline of 3.77% over the week, while the non-banking index fell by 4.44% [7]. - The brokerage sector saw a decline of 4.89%, with notable performances from specific firms such as首创证券 and 东兴证券, which showed positive growth [9][19]. - The insurance sector also experienced a downturn, with major companies like 中国人寿 and 中国平安 reporting declines in their stock prices [9][15]. Non-Banking Industry Data - As of the end of 2024, the total assets managed by 34 insurance asset management companies reached 33.3 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [4][19]. - The report notes that the average management scale per institution in the insurance sector is 4.364 billion yuan, with a significant increase in revenue generation [4][19]. - The average daily trading volume in the stock market for November 2025 was reported at 19,739.55 billion yuan, indicating a slight decrease from previous months [19][44]. Key Company Announcements - CICC is planning a major asset restructuring involving the merger with 东兴证券 and 信达证券, which is expected to enhance its market position significantly [31]. - 阳光保险 announced a 20 billion yuan investment to establish a pilot private equity fund, indicating a strategic move towards diversifying its investment portfolio [32]. - 国盛证券 received approval for its stock options market-making business, reflecting ongoing developments in the brokerage sector [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The integration of brokerages under the Huijin system has commenced, with China International Capital Corporation (CICC) planning to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, potentially enhancing CICC's market position and asset base significantly [4]. - The insurance asset management sector has seen a year-on-year increase of 36% in stock allocation, with total managed funds reaching CNY 33.3 trillion, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4]. - The report highlights three investment themes for brokerages: benefiting from improved competitive dynamics, focusing on firms with strong earnings elasticity, and targeting companies with strong international business capabilities [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,453.61, down 3.77% for the week, while the non-bank index fell 4.44% [7]. - The brokerage sector index decreased by 4.89%, underperforming the broader market [7]. Non-Bank Industry Data - As of the end of 2024, the total assets managed by 34 insurance asset management companies increased by 10.6% year-on-year to CNY 33.3 trillion, with a notable rise in stock allocations [4]. - The average daily trading volume in the stock market for November 2025 was CNY 19,739.55 billion, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous month [20]. Key Announcements - CICC is undergoing a significant asset restructuring, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [34]. - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has announced the inclusion of electronic savings bonds in personal pension products, effective June 2026, which may influence investment strategies in the insurance sector [21].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the US stock market is primarily driven by tightening overseas liquidity, declining market risk appetite, and significant concerns regarding the extent of AI bubble [1][2][3] Group 1: US Market Conditions - The tightening of overseas liquidity is attributed to hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve and strong employment and inflation data, which have dampened expectations for interest rate cuts in December [2] - Market risk appetite has decreased due to warnings from Federal Reserve officials about risks in the private credit sector and adjustments in the cryptocurrency market, leading to increased selling pressure [2] - There is considerable disagreement among market participants regarding the degree of AI bubble, with some institutional investors taking profits [2] Group 2: Valuation and Financial Pressure - The current valuation levels indicate that the S&P 500's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is at a high range, nearing the peak levels seen during the tech bubble, while the Nasdaq index's P/E ratio, although high, is still significantly below those peak levels [2] - The concentration of market capitalization among leading tech companies is high, with many having P/E ratios at elevated levels and financial pressures approaching those seen during the tech bubble, leading to increased debt financing and uncertainty regarding buybacks and dividends [2] - The core factors influencing the magnitude and duration of overseas market volatility are identified as monetary policy and inflation, rather than earnings [2][3] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - Given that A-share valuations are significantly lower than those of US stocks and the diminishing influence of foreign capital, the impact of US market weakness on A-shares is expected to gradually decrease [1][3] - There are opportunities for A-shares to rise due to potential positive changes in policies or funding towards the end of the year and into early next year [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) planning to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities has sparked significant industry discussion, indicating a strategic move towards creating a leading international investment bank and enhancing performance metrics through resource integration [2][3]. Group 1: Impact of the Merger - The merger is expected to significantly improve CICC's performance metrics, pushing total assets beyond 1 trillion yuan, elevating its industry ranking from sixth to fourth, and enhancing net profit rankings from tenth to sixth [5][6]. - Analysts believe that the merger will optimize the resource allocation within the Central Huijin-controlled brokerages, marking a strategic step in the ongoing consolidation trend within the industry [3][8]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The merger is anticipated to reshape the competitive landscape among the top ten brokerages, with CICC's enhanced position likely prompting other firms to consider similar strategic mergers to secure their standings in the "3+10" competitive framework [7][8]. - The integration of Dongxing and Xinda's unique business strengths is expected to create synergies, particularly in asset management and investment banking, thereby expanding CICC's service capabilities [6][8]. Group 3: Future Trends - The ongoing trend of mergers and acquisitions in the brokerage sector is expected to continue, driven by regulatory policies and the need for larger firms to maintain competitive advantages [8][9]. - The merger may serve as a catalyst for valuation recovery in the brokerage sector, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [9].

一纸公告，激起千层浪。 11月19日，中金公司拟换股吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券的消息 甫一 公告，就引发行业热烈讨论。 手持数张券商牌照的中央汇金，再次开启内部资源整合。本次"三合一"重组，将推动中金公司多项业绩指标显 著提升，有助于加快建设国际一流投资银行。与此同时，通过吸纳东兴证券、信达证券的特色业务优势，有望 在合并后实现规模经济和协同效应。 券商分析师认为，此次整合具备充分示范意义，不仅将重塑前十大券商的竞争格局与发展基调，也让中大型券 商推进战略重组的可行性、必要性显著提升。未来在前20名券商中，争抢"3+10"入场券带来的整合预计愈演 愈烈。 汇金系券商版图重构，"大吃小"整合打响第一枪 在中国信达等三大AMC（资产管理公司）股权划转完成后，除中金公司、中国银河证券、申万宏源外，中央 汇金又一举成为信达证券、东兴证券、长城国瑞证券的实控人。此外，中央汇金还直接持有中信建投30.76% 股权，为第二大股东，并通过控股公司，与光大证券、中银证券、方正证券有千丝万缕的股权关系。 在证券行业新一轮并购重组潮中，汇金系券商将进一步整合，业内早有预期。但手握数家券商牌照的中央汇金 将如何排兵布阵，则众说纷纭。 ...

调整中见韧性：VIX 理性上行叠加期指资金积极布局 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 11 月 22 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_FirstAuthor] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 崔诗笛 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号：S1500523080001 联系电话：+86 18516560686 邮 箱：cuishidi@cindasc.com 孙石 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号：S1500523080010 联系电话：+86 18817366228 邮 箱：sunshi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,L ...

Core Viewpoint - The integration of Central Huijin-backed brokerages marks a significant step in the securities industry's consolidation, with China International Capital Corporation (CICC) planning to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through a share exchange [1] Group 1: Mergers and Acquisitions - CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities have announced a suspension of trading to plan a major asset restructuring involving a share exchange for the merger [1] - The merger is expected to enhance the scale and comprehensive strength of large brokerages while allowing smaller firms to achieve rapid growth through external acquisitions [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The ongoing mergers and acquisitions are driving funds into securities ETFs, with the securities ETF (512880) seeing an increase of over 26 billion units this year, bringing its total size to over 61.7 billion yuan, leading its category [1] - The brokerage industry has experienced high growth in performance, with listed brokerages reporting a year-on-year increase in operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of +43% and +63%, respectively, in Q3 2025 [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market outlook suggests a continued slow bull market, with brokerages being viewed as "bull market leaders" despite overall stagnation, indicating a potential for increased attention and portfolio allocation [1]