Core Viewpoint - 2025 is a pivotal year for the Chinese securities industry, focusing on deepening functional positioning and high-quality development, with an emphasis on mergers and acquisitions, international expansion, and technological innovation [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Development Strategy - The industry development strategy is projected in two dimensions: internally, to create a first-class investment bank through mergers and acquisitions; externally, to recommend the value of Chinese assets to global markets [2]. - High-quality development is the main theme, requiring securities firms to act as both market participants and builders, as well as to become "boosters" of technological innovation and "guardians" of residents' wealth [2]. Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - 2025 marks a critical year for mergers and acquisitions in the Chinese securities industry, with major firms merging and smaller institutions seeking transformation [4]. - Notable mergers include the formation of "Guotai Haitong Securities" from Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, and the merger of Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities, which has significantly improved their profitability rankings [4][5]. - The merger wave is reshaping the competitive landscape, with the top firms now dominating profit rankings [4]. Group 3: Classification Evaluation - The classification evaluation of securities firms is undergoing significant revisions in 2025, emphasizing the need for firms to enhance their functional roles and professional capabilities [6]. - New regulations remove the revenue bonus while increasing the emphasis on return on equity (ROE), guiding firms to focus on operational efficiency rather than mere scale [6][7]. Group 4: Margin Trading and Financing - The margin trading market is heating up, with a record balance of 2.54 trillion yuan, reflecting a 36.6% increase from the beginning of the year [9]. - Competition among firms has intensified, with some lowering financing rates below 4% to attract clients, indicating a shift towards long-term client retention strategies [9][10]. Group 5: Investment Banking and Technology - The securities industry is adapting to the "hard technology" era, with reforms aimed at providing more inclusive financing paths for tech companies [11]. - Firms are establishing research institutes focused on emerging industries and enhancing their service capabilities through collaboration and talent development [13]. Group 6: AI Integration - The adoption of AI technologies is rapidly transforming the securities industry, with firms implementing AI across various business functions, significantly improving efficiency [15]. - The shift towards AI-driven services is seen as a critical factor in maintaining competitive advantage, with some firms fully committing to AI integration [15]. Group 7: Internationalization - Chinese securities firms are deepening their internationalization efforts, expanding their service offerings beyond traditional roles to include cross-border wealth management and derivatives trading [17]. - The internationalization process is driven by both market demand and strategic goals, positioning firms as key players in the global market [17][18]. Group 8: Asset Management Transformation - The public offering process for asset management is reaching a turning point, with firms reassessing their roles in the broader asset management landscape [19]. - The transition of collective investment products is a priority, with many firms adapting to regulatory changes and focusing on private equity and other specialized products [20][21]. Group 9: Capital Space Optimization - Regulatory changes are encouraging firms to optimize capital management, with a focus on enhancing capital utilization efficiency [25]. - The average leverage ratio of listed securities firms is currently at 3.45 times, indicating room for improvement compared to other financial institutions [25]. Group 10: Name Changes Reflecting Strategic Shifts - A wave of name changes among securities firms signals strategic realignments and resource restructuring following mergers and acquisitions [26]. - The name changes often reflect deeper integration and new strategic directions, indicating a shift in focus and operational capabilities [26][28].

智通财经APP获悉，信达证券发布研报称，滔搏(06110)发布2025/26财年第三季度运营表现，公司零售 及批发业务的总销售金额同比下降高单位数，与此前业绩指引趋势相符。零售业务表现继续优于批发业 务，折扣和库存情况可控，从渠道与运营表现来看，这体现了公司较强的零售管理能力。 信达证券主要观点如下： 全年财务指引保守，长期乐观 财务指引方面，公司指出进入12月以来终端需求波动加剧，经营压力显著增大，此前设定的"全年净利 润同比持平"的目标预计将出现可控范围内的偏差。未来公司持"短期谨慎、长期乐观"的态度。 分渠道看，零售下滑的幅度小于批发，分线上线下看，线下呈改善，线上进入高基数增速转弱。折扣管 理方面，直营零售整体折扣率同比仍有所加深，得益于线下线上增速差收窄，折扣加深的幅度较上半财 年收窄。库存管理上，期末库存总额同比保持下降，周转效率维持良好，库龄结构环比略有改善。门店 网络持续优化，截至三季度末，直营门店毛销售面积同比减少13.4%，环比减少1.3%，关店速度较第二 季度有所放缓。 盈利预测：该行预计公司FY2026-2028财年归母净利润为12.85/13.97/15.28亿港元，对应PE分别为 ...

公司持续推进新业务布局，新增长曲线可期 公司于专业细分赛道的拓展稳步推进并已落地。跑步品类方面，旗下跑步品牌集合店ektos已成功落 地，并通过亮相上海马拉松等顶级赛事强化品牌认知与社群联结。户外品类则通过独家代理挪威高端户 外品牌Norr na实现突破，首店已开设，未来计划在更多城市拓展。滔搏正通过新品类持续打造新增长 曲线。 信达证券发布研报称，滔搏(06110)发布2025/26财年第三季度运营表现，公司零售及批发业务的总销售 金额同比下降高单位数，与此前业绩指引趋势相符。零售业务表现继续优于批发业务，折扣和库存情况 可控，从渠道与运营表现来看，这体现了公司较强的零售管理能力。 信达证券主要观点如下： 从渠道与运营表现来看，零售业务表现继续优于批发业务，折扣和库存情况可控，体现出公司较强的零 售管理能力 分渠道看，零售下滑的幅度小于批发，分线上线下看，线下呈改善，线上进入高基数增速转弱。折扣管 理方面，直营零售整体折扣率同比仍有所加深，得益于线下线上增速差收窄，折扣加深的幅度较上半财 年收窄。库存管理上，期末库存总额同比保持下降，周转效率维持良好，库龄结构环比略有改善。门店 网络持续优化，截至三季度末， ...

Core Viewpoint - 2025 is a pivotal year for the Chinese securities industry, focusing on deepening functional positioning and high-quality development, with an emphasis on mergers and acquisitions, international expansion, and technological innovation, particularly through AI applications [1][2]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The year marks a critical phase for mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry, with major firms like Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities merging to form Guotai Haitong Securities, and other significant consolidations such as Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities [3][4]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Guotai Haitong leading in net profit, and Guolian Minsheng's ranking improving significantly from around 40th to the top 20 [3]. - New merger cases are emerging, such as CICC's plan to merge with Xinda Securities and Dongxing Securities, potentially creating a new entity with over 1 trillion yuan in total assets [3]. Industry Integration Logic - Two main integration strategies are evident: resource consolidation under the same actual controller and market-driven mergers aimed at enhancing national influence [4]. - Analysts suggest that resource integration may become the most important way for securities firms to quickly enhance scale and comprehensive strength [4]. Classification Evaluation Reform - A significant revision of the classification evaluation for securities firms is underway, emphasizing the need for firms to enhance their functional roles and professional capabilities [5][6]. - The new regulations aim to shift focus from revenue expansion to improving operational efficiency and professional skills, thereby enhancing overall industry competitiveness [5]. Margin Trading Market - The margin trading market is heating up, with a record balance of 2.54 trillion yuan, reflecting a 36.6% increase from the beginning of the year [7]. - Several firms have raised their margin trading limits, and a price war on interest rates has begun, with some firms offering rates below 4% [8][9]. Investment Banking and Technology - The securities industry is adapting to a new era of "hard technology," with reforms aimed at providing more inclusive financing paths for tech companies [10][11]. - Securities firms are establishing research institutes focused on emerging industries and enhancing their service capabilities through collaboration and talent development [11]. AI Integration - The adoption of AI technologies is rapidly transforming the industry, with applications expanding across various business functions, significantly improving efficiency [12][13]. - Firms are moving towards an "AI-native" model, enhancing client engagement and operational management through AI tools [12]. Internationalization of Securities Firms - The internationalization of Chinese securities firms is accelerating, with a focus on comprehensive service capabilities and participation in global market competition [14][15]. - This trend is driven by the growing demand for cross-border services and the strategic goal of building first-class investment banks [14]. Asset Management Transformation - The public offering process for asset management is at a turning point, with firms reassessing their positioning in the broader asset management landscape [16][17]. - The industry is witnessing a decline in the rush for public fund licenses, with many firms withdrawing applications, indicating a shift in focus towards existing business optimization [16]. Impact of Fund Fee Reforms - The implementation of public fund fee reforms is pushing securities firms to enhance their research and wealth management capabilities, with a notable decline in commission revenues [18]. - Firms are transitioning towards a buyer advisory model, focusing on asset management and providing comprehensive solutions rather than merely selling products [18]. Regulatory Environment - Regulatory signals indicate a potential easing of capital requirements for high-quality institutions, aimed at improving capital utilization efficiency [19]. - Analysts suggest that enhancing leverage and capital efficiency could drive growth in high-value capital-intensive businesses [19]. Name Changes Reflecting Strategic Shifts - A wave of name changes among securities firms signifies strategic realignments and resource restructuring following mergers and acquisitions [20][21]. - These changes reflect deeper integration and the influence of new stakeholders, indicating a shift in strategic focus and operational capabilities [20].

中信建投（601066）研报称，从月度数据与市场表现来看，跨年行情或呈现"成长先行、白酒蓄力"的鲜 明特征。当前市场资金更倾向于布局零食、乳业等景气度明确、弹性更高的赛道，这类板块在政策支持 与产业趋势共振下，月度数据持续改善，成为跨年行情的核心驱动力。而白酒板块则处于"磨底蓄力"阶 段，随着春节临近，终端备货需求逐步启动，近期头部酒企批价企稳、库存回落的边际变化已开始显 现，预计春节后随着消费场景修复与需求集中释放，白酒将迎来估值修复行情。 NO.2信达证券：机构资金买入力量有望增强配置型资金加快布局 ｜2025年12月29日星期一｜ 信达证券（601059）研报指出，截至上周五上证指数实现"八连阳"，市场成交量回升。内外部不确定性 缓和，催化跨年行情启动的积极因素正在增加：美股科技股反弹、人民币升值、有色金属(金银铜)价格 上行、商业航天等主题催化较多。该机构对本轮跨年行情空间保持乐观，建议投资者积极参与。 NO.1银河证券：A股或迎接跨年"小躁动"行情 NO.3中信建投：跨年行情或呈现"成长先行、白酒蓄力"的鲜明特征 银河证券研报指出，A股市场在临近年末关口震荡上行，呈现出"小躁动"行情，截至上周五，上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally driven by liquidity, policy expectations, and structural opportunities, with a focus on sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and non-bank financials [5][10][12]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with communication and non-ferrous metals being traditional favorites, while new themes like commercial aerospace are gaining traction [3]. - The A-share market is showing signs of a spring rally, supported by liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a focus on sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing [5][10]. - The market is expected to maintain a high risk appetite due to favorable conditions, including a weak dollar and the upcoming Chinese New Year and Two Sessions [11][16]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include AI, commercial aerospace, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to benefit from structural changes and increased demand [10][12]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in chemicals and engineering machinery, is showing signs of recovery and is expected to benefit from the shift in global competition [3][4]. - Non-bank financials, including insurance and brokerage firms, are positioned to benefit from the anticipated capital inflows and improved asset returns [9][12]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Factors - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lower import costs and enhance domestic purchasing power, benefiting sectors reliant on imports and domestic consumption [7][9]. - The potential for significant capital inflows due to RMB appreciation could lead to a revaluation of Chinese assets, creating a favorable environment for investment [7][9]. - The overall economic environment is improving, with expectations of continued liquidity support and a stable policy backdrop, which is conducive to market growth [5][10].

- The report discusses the construction and evaluation of various quantitative models and factors, including the Cinda-VIX and Cinda-SKEW indices, which are designed to reflect market volatility and skewness, respectively[6][61][62] - The Cinda-VIX index reflects the expected future volatility of the underlying asset as implied by option prices. It has a term structure that shows the expected volatility over different time horizons. As of December 26, 2025, the 30-day Cinda-VIX values for the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 16.35, 17.09, 24.97, and 20.60, respectively[62][63][64] - The Cinda-SKEW index captures the skewness in the implied volatility of options with different strike prices. It measures the market's perception of tail risk. As of December 26, 2025, the SKEW values for the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 99.83, 100.24, 103.00, and 102.52, respectively[70][71][76] - The report also includes backtesting results for various hedging strategies using stock index futures. The strategies include continuous hedging and minimum discount hedging, applied to the CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices. The backtesting period is from July 22, 2022, to December 26, 2025[43][44][45] - For the CSI 500 index futures hedging strategy, the annualized returns for the continuous monthly, continuous quarterly, and minimum discount strategies were -3.47%, -2.70%, and -1.99%, respectively. The corresponding volatilities were 3.78%, 4.68%, and 4.48%, and the maximum drawdowns were -11.51%, -9.16%, and -8.93%[46][47][49] - For the CSI 300 index futures hedging strategy, the annualized returns for the continuous monthly, continuous quarterly, and minimum discount strategies were 0.26%, 0.59%, and 0.99%, respectively. The corresponding volatilities were 2.88%, 3.23%, and 3.00%, and the maximum drawdowns were -3.95%, -4.03%, and -4.06%[48][50][52] - For the SSE 50 index futures hedging strategy, the annualized returns for the continuous monthly, continuous quarterly, and minimum discount strategies were 1.02%, 1.93%, and 1.55%, respectively. The corresponding volatilities were 2.95%, 3.35%, and 2.97%, and the maximum drawdowns were -4.22%, -3.76%, and -3.91%[53][54][56] - For the CSI 1000 index futures hedging strategy, the annualized returns for the continuous monthly, continuous quarterly, and minimum discount strategies were -6.53%, -4.91%, and -4.47%, respectively. The corresponding volatilities were 4.73%, 5.74%, and 5.49%, and the maximum drawdowns were -14.01%, -12.63%, and -11.11%[57][58][60]

（原标题：保险股上涨，证券保险ETF年内涨超15%，保险证券ETF年内涨超11%） 中国平安、中国太保、财通证券涨超2%，中国人保、华安证券、中国人寿、新华保险、西南证券涨超 1%。 对于券商，西部证券认为，券商板块盈利和估值有所错配，看好后续修复空间。推荐两条主线，一是综 合实力较强、估值仍较低的中大型券商，二是推荐正在推进并购或有并购重组预期券商。 国金证券表示，2026年：1）主题一：居民存款搬家以及长钱长投带来高市场活跃度，利好经纪、两融 业务，市场成交额、两融余额有望维持在较高水平。2）主题二：资本市场韧性增强、波动性下降带来 的赚钱效应加强，投资收益率有望保持稳定或小幅提升，券商积极把握权益市场的机会，或继续增配其 他权益工具投资以及交易性金融资产的股票。3）主题三：推动直接融资、助力科创企业融资带来投行 业务机会。券商作为资本中介在支持科创企业融资方面起到重要作用，无论是科创板"1+6"改革、还是 支持科创债的发展，在便利科创企业融资的同时也给券商带来更多业务机会。根据证监会规划，未来还 可能推出创业板改革、储架发行制度等政策，预计IPO节奏将进一步常态化。4）主题四：券商合并、 打造一流投行带 ...

智通财经12月25日讯（记者高艳云）2025年，中国证券业经历了一场足以载入行业发展史册的深度整合 浪潮。从中金公司万亿规模的吸收合并案，到国泰君安与海通证券的强强联合，多起重磅并购案密集落 地，清晰勾勒出"自上而下、政策驱动"的行业变革主线。 行业交流来看，包括头部与非头部券商在内，都有很强的并购危机感，特别一些头部券商，感慨"不并 购就得落后"。 多元并购样本浮现勾勒行业整合三大路径 2025年的标志性并购案例，从不同维度展现了行业整合的路径选择，成为观察本轮券业重组的最佳样 本。从头部券商强强联合到区域国资体系内整合，从跨区域突破到金融科技融合，多元化案例共同构成 了本轮券业重构的全景图。 路径一："中金+东兴+信达"三合一打造航母级券商 作为2025年最具影响力的并购案，中金公司换股吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券已进入实质性推进阶段。 待交易完成后，中金将正式跻身"万亿航母级"券商行列，核心经营指标实现全面跃升：以三季报数据来 看，合并后总资产将达10096亿元、归母净资产1715亿元，均跻身行业第4；营收274亿元、归母净利95 亿元，排名分别升至第3和第6；零售客户超1400万户，受托资金规模突破80 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese securities industry is undergoing a significant transformation marked by mergers and acquisitions, shifting from scale expansion to quality improvement by 2025 [2][3][4] Group 1: Industry Trends - The integration wave in the securities industry is driven by top-down policies and market forces, aiming to create three to five internationally influential leading investment banks [3][4] - 2025 is identified as the "Year of Major Integration," with a notable increase in large-scale mergers compared to 2024, targeting alignment with top international investment banks [4][5] - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities has established a benchmark for "super aircraft carrier" institutions, while CICC's "three-in-one" merger with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities will exceed total assets of 1 trillion yuan [4][5] Group 2: Regional and Small Firm Integrations - Regional and specialized securities firms are also experiencing significant mergers, such as Guosen Securities acquiring Wanhua Securities and Xibu Securities taking over Guorong Securities [5] - The integration of small firms like Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities has resulted in a remarkable 345.3% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters [5][6] Group 3: Market Reactions - The market has responded positively to these mergers, with significant stock price increases for major firms like Huatai Securities and GF Securities prior to the announcement of CICC's merger plan [5][9] - Analysts predict that the ongoing mergers will enhance competition among the top ten securities firms, with CICC's merger potentially igniting a wave of horizontal integration across the industry [9][10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The main lines of mergers in 2026 will include consolidations under the same controlling entity, regional integrations, and acquisitions aimed at filling operational gaps [8] - The overall market environment is expected to improve, with projections indicating a 51% year-on-year increase in net profit for the securities sector in 2025 [9][10]