高盛上周举办了一场投资者电话会议，与一位旅游零售及免税专家进行交谈，该专家在海南免税业务发 展与营运方面拥有多年经验。展望2026年，专家对海南免税销售增长持审慎乐观态度。该行预计中国中 免将维持其70%至80%市场份额，并认为未来2至3年内不太可能出现新的免税市场进入者；又认为独立 的关税制度将有助进口外国产品，并随着时间推移吸引更多投资，但相关物流和海关功能需时完善。高 盛将重点关注中免集团即将发布2024年第四季初步业绩中的利润率趋势，以评估其对最终盈利的影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's acquisition of DFS stores and related assets in the Hong Kong and Macau regions will rapidly expand its retail presence locally, while the partnership with LVMH and subsequent H-share issuance will strengthen their collaboration, allowing both retailers and brands to leverage complementary advantages, further consolidating China Duty Free Group's position in the global travel retail market. Post-issuance, China Tourism Group will maintain a solid controlling stake, supporting its long-term international strategy [1]. Group 1: Transaction Overview - The company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, China Duty Free International, will acquire DFS's Greater China travel retail business for up to $395 million in cash [2]. - The acquisition includes nine DFS stores in Hong Kong and Macau, as well as related intangible assets in Greater China [3]. - The final price of the transaction will be determined based on an agreed price adjustment mechanism [6]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - A strategic cooperation memorandum was signed with LVMH to establish a partnership in the retail sector, aligning with LVMH's current business model [7]. - The collaboration is expected to enhance LVMH's brand presence in China Duty Free's channels, particularly benefiting from high-quality customer traffic in duty-free zones [4]. Group 3: H-Share Issuance - The company will issue up to 11,967,500 H-shares at a price of HKD 77.21 per share, which represents less than 0.58% of the total share capital post-issuance [5]. - This issuance will bind the two parties at the equity level, with the potential to increase overseas retail revenue by over 4 billion yuan according to projected financials for 2024 [5][11]. - The issuance will not significantly dilute existing shares, maintaining China Tourism Group's controlling stake at 50.01% [9]. Group 4: Asset Valuation - The valuation of the nine DFS stores in Hong Kong and Macau is approximately RMB 313.38 million, translating to about $44.1 million, with an assessed appreciation rate of 1701.84% [10]. - The transaction is based on a total enterprise value of $400 million, subject to customary adjustments [10]. Group 5: Financial Projections - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 at RMB 4.149 billion, RMB 5.190 billion, and RMB 6.348 billion, respectively, with current share prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 47X, 37X, and 30X [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group Co., Ltd. (China Duty Free, 601888.SH, 01880.HK) announced the acquisition of DFS Group's travel retail business in Greater China for up to $395 million in cash, which includes 100% equity of DFS Cotai Limitada and related assets [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves the purchase of equity and assets from DFS Venture Singapore and DFS Group Limited, including two stores in Hong Kong and Macau, as well as intangible assets like brand ownership and membership systems [1][2]. - Post-transaction, DFS Cotai Limitada will be fully owned by China Duty Free, enhancing its presence in the travel retail market [2]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - China Duty Free signed a share subscription agreement with Delphine SAS and Shoppers Holdings HK, planning to issue up to 7,330,100 and 4,637,400 H shares respectively at a price of HKD 77.21 per share [3]. - A strategic cooperation memorandum was also signed with LVMH to explore collaboration in retail sectors, aiming for mutual benefits in product sales, store openings, and brand promotion [3]. Group 3: Market Impact and Future Prospects - The acquisition is expected to strengthen China Duty Free's market position in Hong Kong and Macau, facilitating the export of domestic brands and enhancing the quality of retail experiences for tourists [4]. - The company anticipates that this transaction will lead to industry upgrades, improved service levels, and increased core competitiveness, aligning with its long-term development strategy [4]. - As of January 19, the stock prices of China Duty Free rose significantly, with A-shares up 5.62% and H-shares up 6.65% [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The tourism and travel sector in the A-share market is experiencing a significant rally ahead of the 2026 Spring Festival, driven by strong demand and favorable policies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 19, 2026, the Wind tourism index surged by 2.5%, with major stocks like Dalian Shengya and Jiuhua Tourism hitting the daily limit [1]. - Key stocks such as Junting Hotel, Three Gorges Tourism, and China Duty Free saw gains exceeding 5%, while others like Jinjiang Hotel and Tianmu Lake rose over 4% [1]. - The overall market sentiment is bullish, indicating a preemptive warming of the Spring Festival market [1]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The 2026 Spring Festival holiday, lasting from February 15 to 23, is expected to boost travel demand significantly, with a projected 5.39 billion passengers during the 40-day railway Spring Festival travel period, a 5% increase year-on-year [1][3]. - Domestic flight ticket bookings for the Spring Festival have surpassed 4.13 million, with a daily growth rate of approximately 21% [1][3]. - The trend of "reverse Spring Festival travel" is emerging, with a 35% year-on-year increase in ticket bookings for parents traveling to their children's workplaces for the holiday [1]. Group 3: Policy Support - Continuous policy support has been crucial for the recovery of the tourism sector, with multiple government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption and expanding travel services [3]. - In 2025, domestic tourism saw 4.998 billion trips, an 18% increase, with total spending reaching 4.85 trillion yuan, up 11.5% [3]. - The tourism market is expected to grow by 10% in 2025, driven by sustained leisure travel demand and experiential consumption [3]. Group 4: Institutional Investment - Institutional interest in the tourism sector is rising, with 25 out of 55 A-share tourism stocks receiving ratings from five or more institutions [3][4]. - The National Social Security Fund has invested heavily in eight tourism stocks, with a total market value of 3.094 billion yuan, favoring airlines and duty-free operators [4]. - Spring Airlines reported a 23.68% year-on-year increase in available ton-kilometers in December 2025, indicating strong operational recovery [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to lead to a peak in tourism consumption, benefiting related companies [4]. - Long-term prospects for the tourism sector are bolstered by the implementation of duty-free policies, recovery of international routes, and ongoing service consumption policies [4]. - Investors are advised to focus on leading companies in the duty-free, airline, and premium scenic spot sectors that are likely to benefit from consumption upgrades and policy advantages [4].

Summary of China Tourism Group Duty Free Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer sector in China/Hong Kong, specifically focusing on duty-free retail in Hainan Key Takeaways - **Sales Performance**: Hainan duty-free sales have reaccelerated in January 2026 after a moderation in December 2025, with a year-over-year increase of 37% during January 11-17, 2026 [10] - **Shopper Metrics**: The number of shoppers increased by 23% and per capita spending rose by 11% compared to the previous year [10] - **Sales Growth Drivers**: Key growth drivers include promotional activities, improved product offerings, and enhanced shopping experiences, particularly for higher ticket size items [10] - **Margin Considerations**: Margin is a critical factor for earnings growth, as emerging product categories tend to have lower margins compared to existing duty-free products, which have a gross profit margin of approximately 37% [10] Financial Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb 181,182.3 million [5] - **Enterprise Value**: Rmb 150,711.5 million [5] - **Stock Price Target**: HK$89.00, with a current stock price of HK$81.95 as of January 16, 2026 [5] - **52-Week Stock Price Range**: HK$88.80 - HK$43.15 [5] - **Average Daily Trading Value**: HK$214 million [5] Sales Data Insights - **Daily Sales Performance**: Average daily duty-free sales in Hainan showed fluctuations, with a notable increase in sales per shopper [4][10] - **Sales Comparison**: Excluding the peak sales period from December 18-24, where sales grew by 55%, the remaining days in December showed only a 5% increase [10] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Favorable policy outcomes for Hainan Free Trade Zone (FTZ) and increased consumer spending, especially in beauty and luxury products [14][15] - **Downside Risks**: Economic slowdown affecting disposable income, price competition among retail channels, and intensified competition if the government further opens the duty-free market [14][15] Valuation Methodology - **P/E Ratio**: The target P/E for 2026 is set at 35x, which is 1 standard deviation above the average since 2017, indicating a strong growth outlook for the Hainan travel retail market [12] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted a positive outlook for China Tourism Group Duty Free, driven by strong sales growth in Hainan and favorable market conditions, while also addressing potential risks that could impact future performance.

Group 1 - The retail sector experienced significant gains on January 20, with Shanghai Jiubai and Xinhua Department Store hitting the daily limit, while companies like Hebei Group and Huitong Energy rose over 6% [1] - Shanghai Jiubai's stock price increased by 10.01%, reaching a total market value of 56.40 billion, with a current price of 14.07 [2] - Xinhua Free Trade's stock rose by 6.38%, with a total amount of 8.77 billion and a market value of 49.68 billion, currently priced at 21.99 [2] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasized the importance of strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand, aligning with the trend of upgrading the country's demand structure [1] - The NDRC plans to develop a strategic implementation plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, focusing on creating new demand through new supply and providing strong innovation measures and resource guarantees [1]

编辑丨瑜见 | 名称 | | 涨幅量 | 总金额 | 总市值 | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600838 | 上海九百 | +10.01% | 7.55 | 56.40亿 | 14.07 | | 600785 | 新华百货 | +6.38% | 8.77 乙 | 49.68亿 | 21.99 | | 000417 | 合自集团 | +6.33% | 6.14 乙 | 69.41 乙 | 8.89 | | 600605 汇通能源 | | +6.18% | 1.89亿 | 62.75 Z | 30.42 | | 600858 银座股份 | | +5.63% | 3.21 Z | 39.99 7 | 7.68 | | 300972 万辰集团 | | +5.31% | 4.24 Z | 397.7 Z | 210.34 | | 002305 *STEE | | +5.14% | 93707 | 39.02 Z | 2.25 | | 601366 利群股份 | | +4.30% | 4.14 Z | 52.06 Z | 5.59 | | 601888 | ...

【ct商社】强强联手，中国中免全资孙公司中免国际拟收购DFS大中华区股权及资产，并向奢侈品巨头配套增发H 股不超过1196万股 DFS大中华区旅游零售业务相关股权及资产，主要DFS CotaiLimitada100%股权、DFS香港持有的2家门店以及DFS大 中华区无形资产（会员体系、品牌所有权、知识产权）。 定价3.95亿美金，现金收购，中免国际自有资金。 事件：中国中免全资孙公司拟收购DFS大中华区股权及资产，并配套增发H股。 交易方案要素如下： DFS新加坡&DFS香港(由LVMH和Miller家族拥有） DFS大中华区旅游零售业务相关股权及资产，主要DFS CotaiLimitada100 【ct商社】强强联手，中国中免全资孙公司中免国际拟收购DFS大中华区股权及资产，并向奢侈品巨头配套增发H 股不超过1196万股 事件：中国中免全资孙公司拟收购DFS大中华区股权及资产，并配套增发H股。 交易方案要素如下： DFS新加坡&DFS香港(由LVMH和Miller家族拥有） 标的资产2024年收入56.4亿元，净利润1.27亿元；2025Q1-Q3收入为40亿元，净利润为1.33亿元。 我们预计2025年全 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (China Duty Free) saw a stock price increase of 5.03%, reaching 98.10 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.243 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.66%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 202.955 billion CNY [1] - China Duty Free was established on March 28, 2008, and listed on October 15, 2009. The company primarily engages in the retail of tourism products and related services, operating through two main departments: tourism retail and tourism retail complex investment and development [1] - The revenue composition of China Duty Free includes 72.26% from duty-free product sales, 25.54% from taxable product sales, and 2.20% from other sources [1] Group 2 - Among the top shareholders of China Duty Free, Huatai-PB Fund's Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (510300) reduced its holdings by 738,200 shares in the third quarter, now holding 16.5957 million shares, which accounts for 0.8% of the circulating shares [2] - The Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF has a total scale of 425.581 billion CNY, with a year-to-date return of 2.34% and a one-year return of 27.53% [2] - The fund manager of Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, Liu Jun, has a tenure of 16 years and 235 days, with the fund's total asset size at 542.504 billion CNY and a best return of 189.39% during his tenure [3]

Summary of the Conference Call on China Duty Free Group's Acquisition of DFS Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: China Duty Free Group (中国中免) - **Industry**: High-end travel retail, specifically in the Asia-Pacific region Core Points and Arguments - **Acquisition Details**: China Duty Free Group's wholly-owned subsidiary will acquire DFS's Greater China business for up to **$395 million** in cash, which includes 100% equity of DFS Cotai Limited and related assets from two stores in Hong Kong, as well as intangible assets in the Greater China region [1][2] - **Strategic Investment**: Following the acquisition, LVMH's indirect wholly-owned subsidiary and the Miller family trust will purchase **7,330,100 shares** and **4,637,400 shares** of China Duty Free's H-shares at a price of **HKD 77.21 per share** [1] - **Market Positioning**: The acquisition is expected to deepen the partnership with global luxury giant LVMH, solidifying China Duty Free's leading position in the tourism retail sector in Hong Kong and Macau [1][2] Financial Highlights - **Performance Metrics**: The target business is projected to generate **CNY 4.149 billion** in revenue and **CNY 128 million** in net profit for the fiscal year 2024. For the first nine months of 2025, it has already achieved **CNY 2.754 billion** in revenue and **CNY 133 million** in net profit, surpassing the total profit for 2024 [3] - **Valuation**: The market valuation of the target business is estimated at **CNY 3.134 billion**, with a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately **21.6 times** for the year 2024 [3] Additional Important Information - **Funding Source**: The acquisition will be financed through China Duty Free's own funds [3] - **H-share Issuance**: The total amount from the H-share issuance is expected to be up to **HKD 924 million**, with a one-year lock-up period for the subscribing parties [3] - **Shareholding Changes**: Post-transaction, China Tourism Group's shareholding will slightly decrease from **50.30%** to **50.01%**, while LVMH will hold approximately **0.35%** and the Miller family will hold about **0.22%** of the total share capital [3]