证券研究报告 | 2025年12月03日 免税行业专题 优于大市 中国免税行业新周期的演绎序幕拉开 海南免税景气度是板块龙头业绩关键，政策驱动的消费回流叙事主导估值。 2011-2019 年在政策红利下海南离岛免税销售额 CAGR 达 39%，因自贸港政策 大幅优化 2020-2021 年销售均翻倍，峰值达 495 亿。2022-2024 年受消费信 心不足、客群稀释及国际香化周期等因素叠加影响进入调整期，2024 年销售 额较高点下滑 37%。在此背景下，2020-2021 年强预期下中免市值一度逼近 8000 亿（估值超 80x），后随销售回落进入估值与业绩双杀阶段。 近期海南免税销售拐点向上，龙头底部反弹，市场分歧转向复苏持续性与强 度。2025 年 9 月起海南免税销售同比转正，9-11 月同比+3%、+13%、+27%， 10-11 月品类结构变化带动客单价+30%、+41%。海南免税作为中高端消费晴 雨表，近期在政策利好与数据改善下，龙头股价自 6 月份信心低点反弹约 40%，市场关注点也从"持续探底的不确定"转向"复苏持续性与强度的分歧"。 变化一：政策端，服务消费战略地位提升为免税政策持续优化 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Tourism Group Duty Free, expecting a relative return exceeding 10% over the next 12-18 months [22]. Core Insights - The company is poised for a rebound in performance due to the release of policy benefits, with Hainan's offshore duty-free shopping reaching 506 million yuan and 72,900 shoppers in the first week of the new policy, reflecting year-on-year increases of 34.86% and 3.37% respectively [2][9]. - The company plans comprehensive upgrades across various sales channels, including the Haitang Bay project, downtown duty-free stores, and airport duty-free stores, to enhance sales performance [3][10]. - The introduction of high-quality products, particularly in the gold and 3C electronics categories, is expected to drive additional sales growth, with a target of 2.5 billion yuan in sales for Apple products by 2025 [4][11]. - A growing membership base of 46 million, with a focus on high-net-worth clients and differentiated sales strategies, is anticipated to enhance customer engagement and increase average transaction values significantly [5][12]. - The company is managing capital expenditures efficiently while exploring investment and acquisition opportunities to support rapid growth [6][14]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The new offshore duty-free policy has led to a significant increase in shopping activity, validating demand resilience and setting a positive outlook for the company [2][9]. Channel Upgrades - The Haitang Bay project will be developed in three phases, focusing on one-stop shopping, taxed retail formats, and lifestyle experiences, while downtown and airport stores will leverage tax refund policies and enhance service offerings [3][10]. Product Diversification - The company is enhancing its product offerings with a focus on gold, 3C electronics, health products, and emerging categories like pet products and musical instruments, which are expected to contribute to sales growth [4][11]. Membership and Customer Engagement - The membership system is expanding rapidly, with strategies tailored for high-net-worth individuals and emerging customer bases, aiming to significantly increase transaction values and customer loyalty [5][12]. Financial Management - The company is focused on controlling capital expenditures and maintaining a strong cash flow, while actively seeking growth opportunities through strategic investments [6][14].

Group 1: Market Overview - As of November 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.67%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.95% and 4.23%, respectively[5] - The average decline of the stock portfolio in November was 4.83%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index, which fell by 2.46%[5] - The market is expected to experience consolidation, with external economic conditions remaining stable and the potential for further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve[5] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Huaxin Cement (600801) is positioned for overseas expansion, with a closing price of 22.42 CNY and a projected EPS of 1.42 CNY for 2025[8][12] - Sanmei Co. (603379) focuses on refrigerants, with a closing price of 52.17 CNY and an expected EPS of 3.50 CNY for 2025[13][15] - China Duty Free Group (601888) benefits from policy dividends, closing at 79.03 CNY with a projected EPS of 1.94 CNY for 2025[16][19] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (300750) is undergoing valuation recovery, with a closing price of 373.20 CNY and an expected EPS of 15.00 CNY for 2025[20][23] - Sungrow Power Supply (300274) is seeing favorable conditions in new energy storage, closing at 182.90 CNY with a projected EPS of 7.07 CNY for 2025[24][26] - SANY Heavy Industry (600031) is focused on engineering machinery, with a closing price of 20.32 CNY and an expected EPS of 1.00 CNY for 2025[27][29] - Yutong Bus (600066) is expanding its overseas market, closing at 31.11 CNY with a projected EPS of 2.14 CNY for 2025[33][37] - North Huachuang (002371) specializes in semiconductor equipment, with a closing price of 427.90 CNY and an expected EPS of 10.03 CNY for 2025[38][41] - Kingsoft Office (688111) is leveraging AI in office solutions, closing at 311.31 CNY with a projected EPS of 4.07 CNY for 2025[42][44]

华西证券研报指出，中国中免于11月28日在海南省三亚市举办投资者开放日活动，活动内容为参观公司 旗下三亚国际免税城（三期）、公司业务介绍及现场交流。该行认为随着公司在海南零售网络布局持续 深入，伴随着高端消费逐步回暖以及海南自贸港政策逐步优化，公司业务经营有望持续向上，从而释放 利润弹性。鉴于近期海南离岛免税销售亮眼的表现，上调之前的盈利预测。维持"增持"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huaxi Securities maintains an "overweight" rating on China National Pharmaceutical Group (China National Pharmaceutical), indicating a positive outlook for the company's business operations moving forward [1] Group 1 - The company's business operations are expected to continue on an upward trajectory, supported by strong market demand and strategic initiatives [1] - Recent financial performance shows resilience, with key metrics indicating growth potential in the upcoming quarters [1] - The overall industry environment remains favorable, contributing to the optimistic outlook for China National Pharmaceutical [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 Brand Conference in Shanghai highlighted the innovative trends in brand communication and recognized China Duty Free Group for its impactful brand presence in the tourism retail sector [1] Group 1: Company Achievements - China Duty Free Group has been awarded the "Annual Influential Brand Communication" award for its continuous innovation in consumer interaction within the tourism retail industry [1] - The company has maintained its position as the top tourism service brand in the "China's 500 Most Valuable Brands" list for 22 consecutive years, showcasing its deepening brand influence [1] - China Duty Free Group has established long-term partnerships with over 1,500 globally recognized brands and operates more than 200 retail stores across various regions, including over 30 provinces in China and several international locations [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The recovery of the domestic market has led to a pronounced aggregation effect among leading companies in the Chinese tourism retail sector, with China Duty Free Group focusing on new store openings, product launches, and enhanced service experiences [2] - The ongoing "Crazy Shopping Season" event aims to create new consumer experiences through content interaction and commercial collaboration, integrating over 30 retail locations and three online platforms [2] - The company is leveraging cultural empowerment and innovative marketing strategies to enhance its brand vitality, including the introduction of unique cultural IPs that resonate with consumers [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - China Duty Free Group is transforming duty-free shopping spaces into engaging cultural tourism destinations, positioning itself as a benchmark for innovation in the tourism retail sector [3] - The company is actively participating in international events to showcase China's tourism retail innovations and strengthen global partnerships for product co-creation [3] - With the upcoming full closure of Hainan Free Trade Port, the tourism retail industry is expected to enter a new development phase, where China Duty Free Group will continue to focus on integrating duty-free and cultural experiences [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Duty-Free Industry and China Duty-Free Group Industry Overview - The duty-free industry in China is experiencing a new growth phase, similar to the situations in 2020 and 2017, despite short-term economic challenges in China [1][2] - The overall trend remains positive, with stock market development and recovery in entrepreneur confidence being encouraging signals [1][2] Key Insights - **K-Shaped Recovery**: Consumer behavior is showing a K-shaped recovery, where high-income and low-end consumer groups are less affected. Government measures such as increased holidays and subsidies are promoting consumption [1][2] - **Sales Performance**: Since Q3 2025, duty-free sales in Hainan have gradually improved from a low base, significantly boosted by the launch of the iPhone 17 [1][3] - **Tourism Demand Shift**: Southeast Asian tourism demand is shifting to Hainan due to events like the Thailand fraud incident and tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, which is expected to enhance tourism and duty-free demand in Hainan [3] - **Luxury Goods Demand**: There is an increase in demand for luxury goods, particularly among high-income groups, with a notable rise in the sales proportion of premium products since July [3] Company-Specific Insights - **China Duty-Free Group (CDFG)**: CDFG is maintaining a strong position in the high-end consumer market, with top-tier properties in Sanya and Haikou. The LV store in Haitang Bay is noted as the best-selling LV store in China, showcasing CDFG's strong brand attraction and leasing capabilities [1][4] - **Market Position**: CDFG's market share and sales are on the rise, while other duty-free operators in Hainan, such as Shen免, Hai旅, and 中出服, are losing competitive edge in the cosmetics sector [2][5] Future Outlook - **Optimistic Projections**: The outlook for Hainan and airport duty-free stores is optimistic, with expectations of a full recovery across the duty-free industry chain if consumer policies are effectively implemented [6] - **Competitive Landscape**: CDFG is expected to maintain its leading position in the market, especially in airport bidding processes, due to its historical advantages [6] - **Investment Opportunities**: It is considered a good time for investors to focus on the duty-free sector, particularly on leading companies like CDFG and Wangfujing, as the luxury segment is beginning to recover [8] Additional Considerations - **Policy Support**: New policies allowing unlimited use of a 100,000 yuan duty-free quota for island residents are anticipated to boost consumption during the New Year and Spring Festival [3] - **Investment Strategy**: While Wangfujing may offer short-term opportunities, CDFG is viewed as having a more stable market position and higher probability of success in the long run [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Duty Free Group (601888) is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recovery of high-end consumption and the long-term growth potential of Hainan's offshore duty-free market, especially with the optimization of policies and the expansion of retail networks [2][3][4] - The sales of offshore duty-free products in Hainan have seen rapid growth, with a 28.52% year-on-year increase in sales amounting to 1.325 billion yuan from November 1 to November 17 [3] - High-end consumption is showing signs of recovery, supported by strong performance in the gaming sector and luxury brands in the Asia-Pacific region [4] - The Sanya International Duty-Free City Phase III is progressing as planned, with the first phase expected to be completed by August 2026, enhancing the commercial landscape in Hainan [5] - The report has adjusted the revenue forecasts for the company, expecting revenues of 55.468 billion, 61.242 billion, and 70.777 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.114 billion, 5.091 billion, and 6.150 billion yuan [6] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company held an investor open day in Sanya, showcasing its retail network and business operations, indicating a positive outlook for profit growth due to high-end consumption recovery and policy optimization in Hainan [2] Analysis and Judgment - The report notes significant improvements in the offshore duty-free shopping policies, which have contributed to increased sales and consumer engagement [3] - High-end consumption is rebounding, with notable growth in luxury brand sales and positive trends in the gaming sector, indicating a favorable market environment [4] Investment Recommendations - The report has revised its earnings forecasts upward, reflecting the strong performance in Hainan's duty-free sales and the anticipated growth in high-end consumption [6]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming full closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port marks a new stage of high-level opening in China, with China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) positioned as a key beneficiary due to its dominant position in the offshore duty-free market [3][4]. Policy and Strategic Significance - The closure operation is designed to create a new regulatory framework of "one line open, two lines controlled, and free within the island," significantly reducing tariffs on approximately 74% of goods, covering 6,600 tariff items, thus transforming Hainan into a "systemic open highland" [4][5]. - This policy change will create a favorable environment for duty-free and specialty goods, enhancing the development prospects for companies like China Duty Free Group [5]. Benefits for China Duty Free Group - The closure operation will bring three major policy benefits: 1. Continuous optimization of offshore duty-free policies, with increased quotas and expanded categories, directly benefiting China Duty Free Group as the market leader [6]. 2. Revolutionary upgrades in "island consumption" scenarios, allowing local residents and long-staying tourists to enjoy new consumption privileges, enabling the company to explore diversified business models [6]. 3. Significant improvements in supply chain efficiency, allowing better integration with international supply chains, reducing procurement costs and turnover times, thus enhancing price competitiveness and profitability [6]. Competitive Advantages - China Duty Free Group has established formidable competitive barriers through: 1. Exclusive licensing and first-mover advantages, being the only company with full duty-free channel licenses and extensive early investments in Hainan [8]. 2. Scale effects from partnerships with over 1,000 global brands, providing strong purchasing power and ensuring product diversity and exclusivity [8]. 3. Strong brand recognition and operational experience, making "China Duty Free" the preferred brand for duty-free shopping in China [8]. Future Growth Potential - The company's growth potential is reflected in three aspects: 1. Market expansion as Hainan aims to become an international tourism consumption center, with increasing tourist numbers and spending power [8]. 2. Consumption upgrades, benefiting from the trend of luxury goods consumption returning to China, with Hainan as a key destination [8]. 3. Business model innovation, exploring high-end taxable goods retail, brand flagship stores, and immersive experience consumption [9]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 39.86 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.05 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 7.3% and 22.1% respectively [13]. - However, Q3 2025 showed signs of stabilization with revenues of 11.71 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to earlier in the year [13][18]. - The gross profit margin remained high at 32.5%, showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from 2024, suggesting potential for recovery as the closure policy is implemented [18]. Market Trends - The Hainan offshore duty-free market is beginning to recover, with sales figures showing initial positive effects from new policies, indicating a potential expansion of the consumer base to include international travelers [18][19].

Core Insights - The appreciation of the Renminbi has led to a significant increase in the related sectors, with a 2.61% rise compared to the previous trading day, and China Duty Free Group (中国中免) leading the gains [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up 0.65% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13146.72, up 1.25% [1] Top Gainers in Renminbi Appreciation Beneficiary Sector - China Duty Free Group (601888) closed at 84.46, up 6.87%, with a trading volume of 736,300 shares and a turnover of 6.094 billion yuan - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) closed at 5.42, up 6.27%, with a trading volume of 4,738,300 shares and a turnover of 2.57 billion yuan - Air China (601111) closed at 8.46, up 5.35%, with a trading volume of 1,095,600 shares and a turnover of 904 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The Renminbi appreciation beneficiary sector saw a net inflow of 312 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 494 million yuan [2] - The top stocks in terms of capital flow included: - China Duty Free Group with a net inflow of 3.44 billion yuan from institutional investors - Tongling Nonferrous Metals with a net inflow of 79.34 million yuan from institutional investors [3]