Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (601888) announced that its A-share stock experienced an abnormal trading fluctuation, with a cumulative closing price increase exceeding 20% over three consecutive trading days from April 8 to April 10, 2025 [1] Company Summary - The company conducted a self-examination and confirmed, after consulting with its controlling shareholder, that there are no undisclosed significant matters or risk issues [1] - Daily operational activities of the company are normal and orderly, with no significant changes reported in its main business operations and fundamentals [1] - Investors are advised to be cautious of secondary market trading risks and to make rational investment decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group's stock price has experienced significant short-term volatility, with a cumulative deviation of over 20% in closing prices over three consecutive trading days [1] Company Summary - The company's main business and fundamentals have not undergone any significant changes [1] - Investors are advised to be cautious of trading risks in the secondary market and to make rational decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The State Taxation Administration of China has announced the nationwide promotion of the "immediate refund" service for outbound travelers, enhancing the shopping experience for foreign tourists and potentially boosting the inbound tourism market [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The "immediate refund" policy allows foreign travelers to receive a refund in RMB at the point of purchase after signing an agreement and pre-authorizing a credit card, creating a "shopping-refund-reconsume" cycle [1]. - This policy is expected to significantly increase the attractiveness of shopping in China for foreign tourists, especially in conjunction with the "240-hour" visa-free policy and recent RMB exchange rate trends [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Previous trials of the "immediate refund" policy in cities like Shanghai and Beijing have already shown substantial growth in inbound consumption, with the number of travelers, sales of refund-eligible goods, and total refunds increasing by 2.3 times, 1.2 times, and 1.3 times respectively in 2024 [2]. - Analysts predict that if the penetration rate of outbound tax refund travelers reaches 15%, it could result in approximately 21.8 million travelers annually, leading to a potential sales volume of 109 billion RMB in future years [3]. Group 3: Stock Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the "immediate refund" policy, stocks in the duty-free sector have surged, with companies like Zhongbai Group experiencing multiple trading halts due to price increases, and China Duty Free's stock rising over 24% in three trading days [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [6][4] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 aligns with previous earnings reports, with total revenue of 56.47 billion yuan, down 16.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.4% year-on-year [1][2] - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to slower-than-expected recovery in consumer demand, particularly in the duty-free segment, which saw sales of approximately 38.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.58% year-on-year [2][3] - The Hainan duty-free market experienced a significant downturn, with revenue of 28.89 billion yuan, down 27% year-on-year, accounting for 51% of total revenue [2][3] - The company is actively expanding its channels, having secured operating rights for duty-free projects at 10 airports and ports, with notable revenue growth at existing duty-free stores in major airports [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 13.45 billion yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.35 billion yuan, down 76.9% year-on-year [1] - The overall gross margin for the company in 2024 was 32.0%, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year [2] Market Opportunities - The introduction of the new policy on city duty-free stores is expected to provide a new growth avenue for the company, with the opening of a duty-free store in Dalian and additional stores planned in cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou [3][4] Future Projections - The company is projected to recover its growth rate under supportive policies and consumer recovery trends, with estimated net profits of 4.9 billion yuan, 5.5 billion yuan, and 6.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][13]

恒生科技指数收盘涨2.64%。半导体股大涨，中芯国际涨约10%，华虹半导体涨约8%。地产股上涨，融 创中国涨约13%。部分科技股上涨，小米集团涨约8%。南向资金净买额约356亿元，创历史新高。 ...

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中国中免（601888）涨幅扩大至5.20%，旅游ETF(159766)持有该股票15.31%，当前涨幅为0.45%，成交 额9639.09万元，近1月份额增加30.28%，增加10.79亿份。 打包市场龙头，抢反弹就买指数ETF>> ...