Key Points Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: Luxury retail and tourism - **Company**: A luxury retail company with a significant presence in China, particularly in Hainan Core Views and Arguments - **Hainan Market Performance**: - **Seasonality**: Hainan experiences a clear seasonal trend with peak sales during winter and the Chinese New Year. [1] - **Recent Developments**: The company is investing in enhancing customer experience and service at its stores in Hainan. [2] - **Supply Chain Improvement**: The company has improved its supply chain efficiency, reducing the time from purchase to delivery to as little as four hours. [5] - **Cost Optimization**: The company has established a regional operation center in Hainan to optimize resource allocation and reduce costs. [6] - **Online Sales**: - **Importance**: Online sales remain a significant revenue and profit contributor. [8] - **Strategies**: The company is continuously analyzing consumer trends and adjusting pricing and marketing strategies accordingly. [9] - **KOL Engagement**: The company encourages KOLs to promote its products on social media platforms like Xiaohongshu. [10] - **Capital Expenditure**: - **Electricity**: The company expects minimal capital expenditure for its electricity business, primarily due to existing contracts and the potential for expansion within existing properties. [12] - **Dividends and Repurchases**: The company aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40% or higher. [13] - **Retail Operations**: - **Efficiency Improvement**: The company is focused on improving operational efficiency across its retail operations, including procurement and inventory management. [14] - **Growth Opportunities**: The company is exploring opportunities to expand its product range, particularly in the areas of domestic luxury brands and international expansion. [15] Other Important Points - **Luxury Consumption Trends**: The company acknowledges the shift in luxury consumption patterns, with a focus on experience-based spending and the rise of domestic luxury brands. [16] - **Brand Collaboration**: The company is working closely with luxury brands to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions. [18] - **Domestic Luxury Brands**: The company is actively promoting domestic luxury brands within its stores and exploring opportunities for further collaboration. [19] - **Overall Outlook**: Despite the challenging environment, the company remains optimistic about its future performance, driven by its focus on operational efficiency and strategic initiatives. [21]

证券代码：601888 证券简称：中国中免 公告编号：临2024-037 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 董 事 会 2024 年 11 月 27 日 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《公司法》等法律法规及《公司章程》的规定，于晖先生的辞职报告自送 达董事会之日起生效。于晖先生的辞职不会影响公司的正常生产运营。公司将按照 有关规定尽快完成新任总会计师的聘任工作。 公司董事会对于晖先生在担任总会计师期间为公司做出的贡献表示衷心的感谢！ 特此公告。 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 关于总会计师辞职的公告 近日，中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董事会收到总会 计师于晖先生递交的书面辞职报告。因工作调动原因，于晖先生申请辞去公司总会 计师职务。辞职后，于晖先生将不在公司及控股子公司担任任何职务。截至本公告 披露日，于晖先生未持有公司股份。 于晖先生确认，其与公司及董事会之间无任何意见分歧，亦无任何与其辞职有 关的事项须提请公司股东注意。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 75.80 RMB as of November 8, 2024 [1][3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was impacted by weak consumer demand and typhoon disruptions, with revenue and net profit declining by 21.52% and 52.53% YoY respectively [5] - Increased promotional activities in Q3 led to a decline in gross and net profit margins, with gross margin dropping by 2.43 percentage points YoY to 32.03% [5] - Despite challenges in Hainan's duty-free sales, October showed signs of recovery, supported by the company's anniversary promotions and recovering air passenger traffic [5] - Airport duty-free stores benefited significantly from the recovery of international passenger traffic, with Beijing airport stores seeing over 140% YoY growth and Shanghai airport stores growing nearly 60% [5] Financial Performance - The company's 2024E revenue is projected at 58,436 million RMB, a 13.5% YoY decline, with a recovery expected in 2025E and 2026E at 12.1% and 15.0% growth respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 5,223 million RMB for 2024E, a 22.2% YoY decrease, with subsequent growth of 13.4% and 18.6% in 2025E and 2026E [4] - ROE is expected to decline to 9.4% in 2024E from 12.5% in 2023, with gradual recovery to 11.2% by 2026E [4] Market Position and Outlook - The company remains a leader in duty-free operations, with potential benefits from the recovery of international travel and upcoming city duty-free store openings [5] - The report highlights the company's strong position to benefit from macro policies stimulating domestic demand [5] - Valuation metrics show a 2024E PE of 30.0x, decreasing to 22.3x by 2026E, indicating potential for multiple expansion as earnings recover [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (601888 SH/01880 HK) with a target price of 79 82 RMB for A-shares and 61 87 HKD for H-shares [5][24] Core Views - The company reported a 15 4% YoY decline in revenue to 430 2 billion RMB and a 24 7% YoY drop in net profit to 39 2 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - Despite the overall decline, the company saw a significant recovery in outbound and inbound duty-free sales, with Beijing airport duty-free store revenue growing over 140% and Shanghai airport duty-free store revenue increasing nearly 60% [2] - Hainan duty-free sales remained weak due to factors such as consumer spending pressure and the impact of Typhoon Muji, with a 38 4% YoY decline in September 2024 [19] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin improved by 1 4 percentage points YoY to 33 1% for the first three quarters of 2024, driven by operational improvements and tighter discounts [2] - However, the net profit margin declined by 1 1 percentage points YoY to 9 1% for the same period [2] - For Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 117 6 billion RMB, down 21 5% YoY, with a net profit of 6 4 billion RMB, a 52 5% YoY decline [1] Business Segments - Duty-free business: Expected to generate revenue of 413 1 billion RMB in 2024, a 6 6% YoY decline, but projected to grow by 13 8% and 10 5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [20] - Taxable business: Expected to generate revenue of 184 2 billion RMB in 2024, a 17 6% YoY decline, with a recovery projected in 2025 and 2026 [20] - Other businesses: Expected to remain stable, with revenue of 10 6 billion RMB in 2024, growing at a 10% annual rate [21] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of international passenger traffic and the potential growth of urban duty-free stores [2] - Hainan duty-free sales are expected to bottom out and recover in Q4 2024, driven by the peak season and macroeconomic recovery [24] - The company's leading position in the industry and competitive advantages are expected to support its performance recovery [24] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's 2024E PE ratio is 28 5x, with a projected PE of 22 8x and 19 7x for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3] - Compared to peers such as Wangfujing and Tianhong, the company's valuation is considered reasonable given its industry leadership and growth potential [25]

证券代码：601888 证券简称：中国中免 公告编号：临 2024-036 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 会议召开时间：2024 年 11 月 21 日（星期四）13:00-14:00 会 议 召 开 地 点 ： 上 海 证 券 交 易 所 上 证 路 演 中 心 （ 网 址 ： https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 投资者可于 2024 年 11 月 14 日（星期四）至 11 月 20 日（星期三）16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过公司邮箱 cdfir@ctg.cn 进行提问。公司将在说明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 （二）会议召开地点：上证路演中心 （三）会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 三、参加人员 公司董事、总经理兼董事会秘书常筑军先生，独立董事葛明先生，财务部 负责人丁丽女士（如有特殊情况，参会人员可能进 ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp (601888 SH) [1][2] Core Views - Consumer demand pressure fully reflected, current stock price still trading on expectations [1][2] - Revenue and profit declined due to weak consumption demand [2] - Future consumption expectations may improve with macro policy support, benefiting the company [2] Financial Performance - 24Q1-Q3 revenue: 43021 million yuan, down 15 38% YoY [2] - 24Q1-Q3 net profit: 3919 million yuan, down 24 72% YoY [2] - 24Q3 revenue: 11756 million yuan, down 21 52% YoY [2] - 24Q3 net profit: 636 million yuan, down 52 53% YoY [2] - 24Q3 gross margin: 32 0%, down 1 9pct QoQ and 2 5pct YoY [2] - 24Q3 inventory: 18690 million yuan, down 330 million yuan QoQ [2] Business Operations - Hainan duty-free sales July-Sept 2024: 5549 million yuan, down 35 6% YoY [2] - Hainan duty-free shoppers July-Sept 2024: 11 million, down 27 2% YoY [2] - Hainan duty-free average spending July-Sept 2024: 5023 yuan, down 11 6% YoY [2] - Qingdao airport duty-free city project signed on Nov 1, 2024 [2] Financial Forecasts - 2024E revenue: 56475 million yuan, down 16 4% YoY [1][2] - 2025E revenue: 68290 million yuan, up 20 9% YoY [1][2] - 2026E revenue: 79790 million yuan, up 16 8% YoY [1][2] - 2024E net profit: 5146 million yuan, down 23 4% YoY [1][2] - 2025E net profit: 6280 million yuan, up 22 0% YoY [1][2] - 2026E net profit: 7617 million yuan, up 21 3% YoY [1][2] Valuation Metrics - 2024E P/E: 30 5x [1][2] - 2025E P/E: 25 0x [1][2] - 2026E P/E: 20 6x [1][2] - 2024E P/B: 2 7x [1][2] - 2025E P/B: 2 5x [1][2] - 2026E P/B: 2 2x [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (601888) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024-2026 net profit is forecasted to be 5,201, 6,646, and 7,429 million yuan respectively, representing a YoY change of -22.5%, +27.8%, and +11.8% [6] - EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at 2.51, 3.21, and 3.59 yuan respectively [6] - The report suggests a reasonable value range of 87.85-100.40 yuan per share based on 35-40x 2024 PE [6] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 11.756 billion yuan, down 21.5% YoY [4] - Net profit attributable to parent company in Q3 2024 was 636 million yuan, down 52.5% YoY [4] - Gross profit margin for main business in first three quarters of 2024 was 32.6%, up 1.1 percentage points YoY [4] - Sales/management/financial expense ratios for first three quarters of 2024 were 15.8%/3.3%/-1.5%, with YoY changes of +2.1/+0.3/-0.4 percentage points [4] Market Performance - Stock price range over 52 weeks: 53.52-97.22 yuan [1] - Total market capitalization: 156.82 billion yuan [1] - Stock price as of November 8, 2024: 75.80 yuan [1] Industry Trends - Hainan offshore duty-free sales in Q3 2024 were 5.549 billion yuan, down 35.6% YoY [5] - Number of duty-free shoppers in Hainan decreased 27.2% YoY to 1.105 million [5] - Average spending per customer in Hainan duty-free shops was 5,021.69 yuan, down 11.6% YoY [5] - Beijing airport duty-free stores saw revenue growth exceeding 140% [5] - Shanghai airport duty-free stores achieved nearly 60% revenue growth [5] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 57.288, 67.852, and 74.028 billion yuan [7] - 2024-2026 gross margin forecast: 31.9%, 33.7%, and 34.6% [7] - 2024-2026 ROE forecast: 9.4%, 11.3%, and 11.9% [7] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: 2.51, 3.21, and 3.59 yuan [7] Valuation Comparison - 2024E PE ratio: 19.8x for China Resources Mixc, 48.6x for Hermes, 22.1x for Prada, 22.0x for LVMH, 35.6x for Estée Lauder [9] - Average 2024E PE for comparable companies: 29.6x [9]

中国中免(601888) / 旅游零售Ⅱ / 公司点评 / 2024.11.07 口岸免税维持高增,关注四季度起市内人 因 投资评级:买入(维持) | --- | --- | |-------------------|------------| | 基本數据 | 2024-11-06 | | 收盘价(元) | 72.65 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 20.69 | | 每股净资产(元) | 26.21 | | 总股本(亿股) | 20.69 | | 最近 12月市场表现 | | 刘洋 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160521120001 liuyang()1@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《关注市内免税新政催化,中免具备 先发优势》 2024-09-02 2. 《业绩表现符合预期，关注盈利能力 核心观点 ■ 证券研究报告 8 事件:公司发布 2024 年三季报。公司 2024 年前三季度实现营业总收入 430.21 亿元，同比下降 15.38%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润 39.19 亿元, 同比下降 24.72%。 of 公司持续增强畅销商品供应,拓宽商品边界。公司三季度业绩承压主要 系海南旅游 ...

五矿证券 中国中免(601888) Q3 点评 口岸免税增长强劲 离岛承压静待花开 事件描述 三季度营收、净利润均下滑,利润端持续承压 2024 年 10 月 30 日，中国中免发布 2024 年第三季度报告，2024Q1-Q3 公 司营业收入 430.21 亿元/yoy-15.4%; 归母净利润 39.2 亿元/yoy-24.7%。 2024Q3 来看，公司营收 117.56 亿元/yoy-21.5%； 归母净利润为 6.36 亿元 /yoy-52.5%，公司在收入和利润方面承压明显。 事件点评 毛利率回落,销售费用上升,整体投入力度加大 2024Q3 公司毛利率 32.0%,同比下降 2.4%;财务费用率-1.6%,同比下降 0.1%；公司销售/管理/研发费用率分别为 18.4%/4.0%/0.1%，分别同 比提升 0.56/0.48/0.01pct。在离岛免税政策尚未放开免税经营国产酒水品类背景下， 公司强化完税创新业务模式在旅游零售市场作用。2024年9月19日，旅游 零售渠道首家五粮液专卖店在三亚国际免税城开业。公司在 2024Q3 加大对 营销、管理、研发等方面的投入力度，导致销售费用率的同比提升 ...

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2024年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國旅遊集團中免股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2024年11月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01880 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 116,383,500 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 116,383,500 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 116,383,500 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 116,383,500 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 ...