Core Insights - The global duty-free market experienced a slowdown last year, failing to return to pre-pandemic levels, with Hainan's offshore duty-free market also facing challenges due to various factors [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's operating income was RMB 16.75 billion, a year-on-year decline of 10.96% compared to RMB 18.81 billion in the same period last year [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.94 billion, down 15.98% from RMB 2.31 billion year-on-year [1][2] - The net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 4.80 billion, a decrease of 9.52% from RMB 5.30 billion in the previous year [1][2][5] Cost and Expense Management - The company's gross margin showed slight pressure, with operating costs decreasing by approximately 10.51%, which was slightly lower than the revenue decline [2] - Sales expenses were RMB 2.20 billion, down about 9.0% year-on-year, while management expenses were RMB 423 million, down about 11.0% [2] Asset and Equity Position - As of March 31, 2025, the total assets of the company reached RMB 80.46 billion, an increase of 5.51% from the beginning of the year, while equity attributable to shareholders was RMB 56.97 billion, up 3.40% [2] Inventory Management - The company's inventory balance at the end of the reporting period was RMB 15.75 billion, a decrease of approximately 9.21% from RMB 17.35 billion at the end of 2024 [3]

Group 1 - As of April 28, a total of 495 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have experienced net outflows of main funds for five consecutive days or more [1] - The stock with the longest consecutive net outflow is Gao Meng New Materials, with 17 days, followed by *ST Jiu You with 16 days [1] - The largest total net outflow amount is from Light Media, with a cumulative net outflow of 2.024 billion yuan over five days [1] Group 2 - China Duty Free has seen a cumulative net outflow of 1.803 billion yuan over 13 days, ranking second in total outflow [1] - The stock with the highest net outflow ratio relative to trading volume is *ST Longyu, which has seen a 26.28% decline over the past six days [1] - The table lists various stocks with their respective net outflow days, amounts, ratios, and cumulative price changes, indicating a trend of declining stock prices among those with significant net outflows [1][2] Group 3 - The gold stock ETF (product code: 159562) tracks the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock Index and has seen a 1.39% decline over the past five days [4] - The ETF has a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.23 times and has experienced a net inflow of 3.337 million yuan, with the latest share count increasing by 1 million to 430 million [4]

4月28日，获政策力挺，离境退税相关上市公司股价均表现活跃。 截至发稿前，在A股市场，百联股份（600827.SH）涨1.32%，众信旅游（002707.SZ）涨3.46%，中国中免（601888.SH）等跟涨。 港股方面，相关概念股也同步冲高。中国中免（01880.HK）上涨1.97%，美兰空港（00357.HK）涨1.91%。 消息面上，在离境退税政策实施10周年之际，该政策迎来了全面革新。 4月27日，商务部会同财政部、文化和旅游部等六部门印发《进一步优化离境退税政策扩大入境消费的通知》。《通知》针对退税商店偏少、退税便利度有 待进一步提升等问题，政策从推动退税商店增量扩容、丰富退税商品供给、提升离境退税服务水平三大方面提出8项举措。 《通知》指出，将离境退税起退点从500元下调至200元，现金退税限额由1万元人民币上调至2万元；鼓励各地在大型商圈、步行街等境外旅客聚集地增设退 税商店；强调要增加老字号产品、国货潮品等中国特色优质产品供应。 此外，"即买即退"服务也是此次政策升级的一大亮点。《通知》指出将离境退税"即买即退"服务措施推广至全国，让旅客在购物现场就可以领取退税款。 近年来，随着我国过境免签 ...

We are also watchful about Hainan's free-trade-zone policy and impact to duty-free operators. The Hainan government has not yet released any details, but we expect it to do so later this year as Central government targets opening the FTZ in 2025. Recap of March-2025 Hainan offline DF trends: Avg daily sales Rmb94mn (-5% YoY vs -13% YoY in 2M25); Daily shoppers 17.7K (-26% YoY) and spending per shopper Rmb6.5K (+28%). The ASP growth could be helped by more electronic product sales which might not translate t ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 24 年 月 日 中国中免（601888.SH） 口岸免税受益政策优化，期待市内免税增量 事件：1）3 月 28 日，公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现营业收入 564.74 亿元/同比 -16.38%，归母净利润 42.67 亿元/同比-36.44%，扣非归母净利润 41.44 亿元/同比- 37.7%；其中 2024Q4 实现营业收入 134.53 亿元/同比-19.46%，归母净利润 3.48 亿 元/同比-76.93%，扣非归母净利润 2.71 亿元/同比-81.42%。2）发布 2024 年度利润 分配方案，拟每 10 股派发现金红利 10.5 元，共计 21.7 亿元，占据归母净利润 50.91%。 消费意愿阶段趋缓，离岛免税显著承压，口岸免税利润有所优化。2024 年海南接待游 客总人数 9721 万人次/同比+8.0%，全年离岛免税购物金额 309.4 亿元/同比-29.3%。 其中实际购物人次 568.3 万人次/同比-15.9%，据计算人均消费为 5444 元/同比- 15.9%。2024 全年公司实现营业 ...

口岸免税受益政策优化，期待市内免税增量 事件：1）3 月 28 日，公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现营业收入 564.74 亿元/同比 -16.38%，归母净利润 42.67 亿元/同比-36.44%，扣非归母净利润 41.44 亿元/同比- 37.7%；其中 2024Q4 实现营业收入 134.53 亿元/同比-19.46%，归母净利润 3.48 亿 元/同比-76.93%，扣非归母净利润 2.71 亿元/同比-81.42%。2）发布 2024 年度利润 分配方案，拟每 10 股派发现金红利 10.5 元，共计 21.7 亿元，占据归母净利润 50.91%。 消费意愿阶段趋缓，离岛免税显著承压，口岸免税利润有所优化。2024 年海南接待游 客总人数 9721 万人次/同比+8.0%，全年离岛免税购物金额 309.4 亿元/同比-29.3%。 其中实际购物人次 568.3 万人次/同比-15.9%，据计算人均消费为 5444 元/同比- 15.9%。2024 全年公司实现营业收入 564.7 亿元/同比-16.38%，其中：1）分类型看， 2024 年免税商品/有税商品分别实现营业收入 386.6 ...

• 海南省政府通过举办演唱会和发放消费券等措施，刺激文旅产业发展，3 月份免税销售额降幅收窄至-5%，较一二月份的-13%有所改善，表明政府措 施对消费有积极影响。 • 今年赴岛游客数量与去年同期基本持平，但购买人次同比下降约 20%，导 致渗透率下降，不过客单价从 1 月的 6,700 元增长至 3 月的 6,500 元，表 明消费者购买力稳定，精品供给优化和消费券拉动是主要因素。 • 自贸港封关政策明确"一线放开，二线管住"，主要针对原材料和设备， 利好 ToB 企业，免税商仍享受现有税收减免，消除了市场对政策不确定性 的担忧，2026 年前不会开放岛民免税。 • 今年 1-3 月离岛免税连带率约为 6 件，与去年同期持平，但件均价显著提 高，约为 1,000 元，高于去年同期的 800-1,000 元，精品占比增加是主要 驱动因素。 • 4 月份离岛免税终端出货价较去年 7 月提升约 10%，综合政府补贴、文旅引 流和免税商折扣等因素，离岛免税销售额趋于稳定。 • 美国来源商品加关税对大集团影响较小，但依赖美国工厂的品牌如倩碧和 修丽可在天猫旗舰店出现涨价和下架现象，美产商品逐步退出中国市场趋 势明显， ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of duty-free concept stocks, particularly China Duty Free Group (CDFG), has shown significant volatility amid the ongoing trade war, with initial gains followed by a decline as market sentiment fluctuated [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In early April, CDFG's stock surged, with a notable increase of 7.45% on April 8, followed by a limit-up on April 9 and a further rise of 4.99% on April 10, reaching a recent high [1]. - However, following these gains, CDFG's stock price experienced a decline over several trading days, reflecting investor uncertainty regarding the impact of the trade war on duty-free operators [1][2]. - Prior to the trade war, CDFG's performance was poor, with a projected revenue of 56.474 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit of 4.267 billion yuan, down 36.44% [2][4]. Group 2: Impact of Trade War - The trade war has led to increased tariffs, with the U.S. imposing a 34% tariff on imports from China, which initially raised concerns about the duty-free market [6][7]. - Despite these concerns, duty-free operators reported that their businesses were not affected by the tariffs, as the duty-free policy remains unchanged, allowing them to attract consumers despite the trade tensions [8][9]. - The duty-free market has been viewed as a potential beneficiary of the trade war, as the tax differential between imported goods and duty-free products may enhance sales for operators like CDFG [7][10]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - CDFG's revenue from Hainan reached 28.892 billion yuan in 2024, while the company also benefited from a significant increase in airport duty-free sales, with Beijing airport sales growing over 115% [10][11]. - The company has established a strong supply chain with over 430 suppliers and 1,400 brands, enhancing its bargaining power and cost advantages [10][11]. - There is potential for growth in the Hainan duty-free market, with experts suggesting that the average spending of tourists could increase significantly, indicating a larger market opportunity [12].

Company Overview - China Tourism Group Duty Free Co., Ltd. (China Duty Free) was established in 2008 and is located in Beijing, primarily engaged in business services [1] - The registered capital of the company is approximately 20.69 billion RMB [1] Stock Performance - On April 17, China Duty Free's stock closed down by 2.05% [1] - The fund managed by Invesco Great Wall, Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth Mixed A, reduced its holdings in China Duty Free in the fourth quarter of the previous year [1] - Year-to-date return for the fund is -0.29%, ranking 1882 out of 4559 in its category [1][2] Fund Management - The fund manager for Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth Mixed A is Liu Yanchun, who has a Master's degree in Management [3] - Liu Yanchun has extensive experience in the investment field, having worked in various research and management roles since 2002 [3][4] - As of now, Liu Yanchun manages multiple funds, including Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth Mixed Fund and Invesco Great Wall Domestic Demand Growth Mixed Fund [4] Fund Performance Metrics - The fund's performance over different time frames shows a near-term decline, with a -0.34% return over the past week and a -5.12% return over the past month [2] - The fund's year-to-date performance is -0.29%, which is slightly better than the average of its peers at -0.38% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "ice and fire" is evident in China Duty Free Group (China Duty Free), where a new tax refund policy boosts stock prices despite ongoing declines in company performance and valuation [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The State Taxation Administration announced the nationwide implementation of the "immediate purchase and refund" tax refund policy, which simplifies the refund process and stimulates inbound tourism potential [1][7]. - The new policy allows foreign tourists to experience tax refunds more directly, potentially increasing their willingness to spend [8]. - Historical data from Japan indicates that similar tax refund policies significantly enhance inbound tourist spending, suggesting a positive outlook for the Chinese market [7]. Group 2: Company Performance - In 2024, China Duty Free is projected to see a revenue decline of 16.38% to 56.474 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 36.44% to 4.267 billion yuan, indicating significant performance pressure [3][4]. - The company's sales from duty-free goods decreased by 12.58% to approximately 38.666 billion yuan, while taxable goods sales fell by 23.49% to about 17.095 billion yuan, reflecting a contraction in online business due to competition [3][4]. - The Hainan region, a core market for the company, experienced a revenue decline of 27.13%, significantly impacting overall performance [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite an increase in market share in Hainan, the overall market contraction means that this gain did not translate into revenue growth [4]. - The competitive landscape has intensified with the opening of new duty-free stores, reducing the company's monopoly advantage [4][10]. - The company's profit margins are under pressure due to increased discounting and rising operational costs, with a notable 76.9% drop in net profit in the fourth quarter [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The recovery of the Hainan market is expected to rely on policy stimuli, such as increased tax refund limits, and will face challenges from international competition post-border closure [6]. - The overall trend of policy support and consumer recovery suggests a potential for sustained recovery in the duty-free market [10]. - China Duty Free holds an 81.74% market share in the domestic duty-free market, positioning it well to benefit from the anticipated growth in inbound tourism [8][10].