Core Viewpoint - China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (China Duty Free) has announced a partnership with LVMH and DFS Group to acquire DFS's travel retail business in Hong Kong and Macau for up to $395 million, enhancing its market presence in the Greater China region [2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - China Duty Free will acquire 100% of DFS Cotai Limitada and all operational assets of DFS stores in Hong Kong and Macau, excluding the City of Dreams store in Macau [3]. - The acquisition includes exclusive rights to a series of brands and intellectual properties under DFS in the Greater China region [2]. - LVMH and Robert Miller will subscribe to new H-shares issued by China Duty Free as part of the transaction, which will be a small portion of the proceeds from the sale [3]. Group 2: Strategic Cooperation - A strategic cooperation memorandum has been signed between China Duty Free and LVMH to establish a partnership in retail sectors aligned with their strategic interests [5]. - This collaboration aims to leverage the strengths of both companies to deepen cooperation in the Greater China region and achieve mutual benefits [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Context - DFS reported a revenue of 2.754 billion yuan and a net profit of 133 million yuan from its Hong Kong and Macau operations in the first three quarters of the 2025 fiscal year [6]. - China Duty Free's revenue for the same period was 39.86 billion yuan, a decline of 7.34% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.42 billion yuan, down 18.89% [6]. - The luxury goods market is projected to recover, with a forecasted growth of 3% to 5% in 2026, following a slight decline in 2025 [8].

智通财经记者 | 朱咏玲 智通财经编辑 | 许悦 中国旅游零售行业龙头中国中免进一步扩大业务版图。 该公司1月20日宣布，将收购全球奢侈品旅游零售商DFS（迪斐世）集团的大中华区零售业务，预计收购价格不超过3.95亿美元（约合人民币27.5亿元）。 该价格主要根据DFS在大中华区的核心资产——澳门7家门店和香港2家门店的估值而定。此次估值采用市场法，即参考可比上市公司的市场数据来估值。 其中，澳门店铺业务模式相对成熟，能产生稳定的经营利润，因此其估值采用EV（企业价值）/EBITDA（息税折旧摊销前利润）倍数，取14.54倍，经调 整后估值为26.38亿元。而香港店铺近两年尚未稳定盈利，其估值采用EV/销售额倍数，取1.50倍，经调整后估值为4.96亿元。 而在中国内地，DFS的发展相对曲折，且始终未能壮大。由于中国内地免税牌照稀缺，一直以来，未获免税经营资质的DFS只能借由与本土公司合作涉足 免税业务，分享其供应链资源及运营经验；或是开展有税业务。 早在2005年，DFS就在海南的海口和三亚开设机场有税店；2011年又与海免公司合作参与海口美兰机场免税店的筹备，主要负责供货，直到2019年合约到 期后撤出海 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 116.10 CNY [5][18]. Core Insights - The acquisition of DFS's Greater China business is expected to significantly enhance the company's premium capability and international influence in the global luxury goods sector, positioning it as a competitive player in tourism retail [2][3]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.947 billion CNY, 5.328 billion CNY, and 6.126 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.91 CNY, 2.58 CNY, and 2.96 CNY [3][4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 67.54 billion CNY, with a decrease to 56.47 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 68.96 billion CNY in 2026 and 87.76 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 28.7% and 27.3% in those years [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline to 4.267 billion CNY in 2024, before increasing to 5.328 billion CNY in 2026 and 6.126 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a growth of 35.0% and 15.0% respectively [4][12]. - The company's net asset return rate is projected to improve from 7.0% in 2025 to 9.8% in 2027 [4][12]. Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire DFS's Greater China tourism retail business for up to 395 million USD, which includes 100% equity of DFS Cotai Limitada and assets from two core stores in Hong Kong [3][12]. - The acquisition will be funded entirely by the company's own capital, ensuring that existing business operations remain unaffected [3][12]. Strategic Partnerships - The company has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with LVMH, aiming for deep collaboration in product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [3][12].

Core Viewpoint - The duty-free sales in Hainan for October-November 2025 reached 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, benefiting from a low base and new policies [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Hainan's duty-free sales in October-November 2025 were approximately 4.8 billion yuan, up 19.8% year-on-year, driven by a low base in 2024 and new duty-free policies [1] - In the first week following the closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, duty-free shopping amounted to about 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.9%, supported by government and operator subsidies [1] - The expected year-on-year growth rate for China Duty Free Group's (CDFG) Hainan business in Q4 is projected to be between 20% and 25% [1] Group 2: Airport and Online Sales - In October-November, the number of inbound and outbound passengers at Shanghai Airport reached 6.54 million, a year-on-year increase of 22%, while Beijing Capital Airport saw 3 million passengers, up 18% year-on-year, indicating potential growth in offline duty-free sales [2] - However, online sales for CDFG's Day Sun brand have significantly declined due to compliance issues and a shift in business model from general trade to cross-border e-commerce, leading to higher product pricing [2] - The online business's share is expected to decrease substantially due to these challenges [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - CDFG's Q4 revenue is expected to be 14.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding non-recurring gains and losses) of 900 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 155% [2] - The gross margin for Q4 is anticipated to decline by 2 percentage points, influenced by changes in product mix and the impact of low-margin online sales [2] - For 2025 and 2026, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.85 billion yuan and 4.99 billion yuan, respectively, with a strong recommendation for investment [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (CDFG) is accelerating its international expansion by acquiring DFS Group's travel retail business in Greater China for up to $395 million, which includes assets and equity stakes in DFS Singapore and DFS Hong Kong [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - CDFG's wholly-owned subsidiary, CDF International Co., Ltd., signed a framework agreement to acquire DFS's travel retail business, which includes 100% equity of DFS Cotai Limitada and related assets from DFS Hong Kong [1]. - The acquisition will be financed through cash and is expected to close in approximately two months, pending customary closing conditions [2]. - Following the acquisition, CDFG will issue new H-shares to Delphine SAS and Shoppers Holdings HK at a price of HKD 77.21 per share, totaling up to 7,330,100 shares and 4,637,400 shares, respectively [2]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The transaction aims to enhance CDFG's competitiveness in the overseas travel retail market and is seen as a critical step in its internationalization strategy [2][3]. - CDFG has also signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with LVMH to collaborate in retail areas that align with both parties' strategic interests, focusing on product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [2]. Group 3: Market Context - DFS, established in 1960, is a prominent high-end travel retailer with a strong presence in major airports and city centers globally, particularly in Hong Kong and Macau [5]. - In 2024, DFS is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 4.149 billion and a net profit of CNY 128 million, with revenues of CNY 2.754 billion and a net profit of CNY 133 million reported for the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - The acquisition will enable CDFG to rapidly build a duty-free network in Greater China, complementing its existing channels [5]. Group 4: Market Trends - Since the third quarter of last year, the demand for duty-free shopping in Hainan has rebounded, with a reported shopping amount of CNY 5.02 billion in the first month of the new duty-free policy, marking a 46.8% year-on-year increase [6]. - The number of shoppers in Hainan reached 772,000, reflecting a 29.7% year-on-year growth [6]. - CDFG is exploring new growth avenues as the Hainan market is no longer dominated solely by the company, with city and airport duty-free markets and overseas markets being key areas of focus [6].

Group 1 - Recent net redemptions in A-share broad-based ETFs have drawn market attention, with significant outflows recorded on January 15 and 16, totaling 687 billion and 863 billion respectively, marking the highest single-day outflows in history [1] - As of January 19, four out of six major broad-based ETFs saw their shares decline by over 10% in the last three trading days, with the largest, Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, dropping to 778.63 billion shares, a scale of approximately 369.2 billion, the lowest since August 2024 [1] - The ChiNext and STAR Market ETFs also experienced significant declines, with the E Fund STAR 50 ETF and E Fund ChiNext ETF seeing share reductions of 34.55% and 20.22% respectively [3] Group 2 - In contrast to the outflows from broad-based ETFs, certain commodity, cross-border, and narrow-based ETFs attracted significant inflows, with the Southern Nonferrous ETF being the only product to receive over 10 billion in net inflows, totaling 100.87 billion, driven by rising base metal prices [3] - Other ETFs such as Yongying Satellite ETF, Harvest Software ETF, and GF Media ETF also received net inflows exceeding 6 billion [3] - According to CITIC Securities, the impact of ETF redemptions on individual stocks was significant, with main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market stocks experiencing sell-offs of 946 billion, 334 billion, and 265 billion respectively during the peak outflow days [3] Group 3 - Regulatory measures have been implemented to cool down the market following rapid price increases and overheated sentiment, including raising the minimum margin requirement for margin trading from 80% to 100% [5][6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for comprehensive market monitoring and timely counter-cyclical adjustments to maintain market stability and prevent excessive volatility [6] - There are differing views on the long-term outlook for A-shares, with some analysts suggesting the potential for a slow bull market due to reforms, while others remain skeptical about escaping historical volatility patterns [7]

Group 1 - The tourism retail sector increased by 2.88% on January 20, with China Duty Free Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] - China Duty Free Group's stock closed at 96.09, reflecting a 2.88% increase, with a trading volume of 849,000 shares and a transaction value of 82.39 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The tourism retail sector saw a net inflow of 394 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 130 million yuan [1] - The breakdown of fund flows indicates that institutional investors had a net inflow of 394 million yuan, while speculative funds had a net outflow of 264 million yuan [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs held an investor conference call discussing the latest trends and growth dynamics in Hainan's duty-free sales, with insights from a tourism retail expert [1] - The expert expressed cautious optimism for Hainan's duty-free sales growth by 2026, anticipating sustained healthy growth in inbound tourism and increased consumption of high-priced items like clothing and electronics [1] - The expert noted that competition among existing duty-free operators remains relatively stable, with China Duty Free Group expected to maintain a market share of 70% to 80% [1] Group 2 - The expert indicated that the issuance of consumption vouchers may slow down, as evidenced by a recent deceleration in distribution speed in Sanya [1] - The expert does not expect last year's policy relaxations to significantly boost sales among Hainan residents, as they contributed only 11 million RMB to sales, accounting for less than 1% [1] - China Duty Free Group continues to succeed by focusing on product variety and inventory levels, offering more bundled packages rather than aggressive price discounts [2]

Group 1 - China Duty Free Group (CDFG) announced the acquisition of DFS Group's travel retail business in Greater China for up to $395 million in cash [2] - DFS Group is a leading luxury travel retailer established in 1960, with stores located in major airports and city centers globally [4] - CDFG is a large publicly listed company controlled by China Tourism Group, operating around 200 duty-free stores in over 100 cities in China and abroad [4] Group 2 - LVMH Group and Robert Miller's family will participate in CDFG's capital increase by subscribing to newly issued H-shares in Hong Kong, with the subscription amount being part of the sale consideration [4] - CDFG plans to establish a cooperative relationship with LVMH in retail sectors aligned with their strategies, focusing on product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that there is cautious optimism regarding the growth of Hainan's duty-free sales, driven by healthy inbound tourism and increased consumption of high-priced items [1] - The expert predicts that inbound tourism will continue to grow, with an increase in spending on high-ticket items such as clothing and more 3C products [1] - The expert expresses concern that the distribution of consumption vouchers may slow down, as evidenced by recent trends in Sanya [1] Group 2 - The competitive landscape remains relatively stable, with China Duty Free Group (601888) expected to maintain a market share of 70% to 80% [1] - The expert believes that new entrants to the duty-free market are unlikely in the next 2 to 3 years, and an independent tariff system will help attract more investment over time [1] - China Duty Free Group continues to win through product variety and inventory, offering more bundled packages rather than aggressive price discounts [2] - Goldman Sachs will focus on the profit margin trends in China Duty Free Group's upcoming preliminary results for Q4 2024 to assess their impact on overall profitability [2]