Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a previous rating also being "Buy" [1][4][6]. Core Views - The company faced significant pressure in 2024, with revenue of RMB 56.474 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit of RMB 4.267 billion, down 36.44% year-on-year. The report anticipates growth from the recovery of port stores and the gradual establishment of city stores [4][9]. - The report highlights the company's increasing market share in the offshore channel, despite a decline in duty-free sales. The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming closure of Hainan Island and ongoing property developments in the region [9]. - The international flight recovery has led to substantial growth in port duty-free sales, with the company's domestic duty-free store sales nearly doubling [9]. - The company is actively expanding its city duty-free operations, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [9]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 60.533 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 7.2% compared to 2024. The net profit is expected to be RMB 4.716 billion, with a growth rate of 10.5% [8][11]. - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of RMB 2.28 for 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 26.5, 22.3, and 19.0 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][8]. - The EBITDA for 2025 is projected at RMB 8.154 billion, with a growth rate of 24.5% [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][15]. Core Views - The company's actual performance for 2024 aligns with previous reports, with a revenue of 56.474 billion yuan, down 16.38%, and a net profit of 4.267 billion yuan, down 36.44% [10][15]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.05 yuan per share, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of over 50% [10][15]. - The company is experiencing pressure in its Hainan operations but has increased its market share through product adjustments [2][11]. - The company benefits from the recovery of international passenger traffic, with significant revenue growth in airport stores [2][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was 56.474 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.38%, and the net profit was 4.267 billion yuan, a decline of 36.44% [9][10]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 13.453 billion yuan, down 19.46%, and a net profit of 348 million yuan, down 76.93% [10][15]. - The gross profit margin for the main business was 31.5%, with a slight increase of 0.15 percentage points [3][12]. Market Dynamics - The company's sales in Hainan decreased by 27% to 28.9 billion yuan, with specific stores in Sanya and Haikou experiencing declines of 28% [2][11]. - The company's tax-free sales revenue decreased by 16%, while the taxable sales revenue fell by 23% [2][11]. - The company has gained nearly 2 percentage points in market share despite the challenging environment [2][11]. Future Outlook - The company is advised to monitor the recovery pace of overall consumption, especially in Hainan, as sales figures show signs of marginal improvement [4][14]. - The company has secured the operating rights for six new city duty-free stores, which are expected to contribute to future growth [4][14]. - The company maintains a strong position in the market with its multi-channel strategy, including Hainan, airports, online, and city stores [15].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit for the year 2024, primarily due to ongoing pressure in the Hainan offshore duty-free sales market [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 56.474 billion yuan, down 16% year-on-year (yoy), and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.267 billion yuan, down 36% yoy [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 13.453 billion yuan, a decrease of 20% yoy, with a net profit of 348 million yuan, down 77% yoy [1]. - The total duty-free shopping amount in Hainan for 2024 was 30.9 billion yuan, down 29% yoy, with actual shopping visitors at 5.683 million, down 16% yoy, and an average spending per visitor of 5,444 yuan, down 16% yoy [1]. Segment Analysis - Duty-free product sales in 2024 amounted to 38.665 billion yuan, down 13% yoy, with a gross margin of 39.5%, unchanged from the previous year [1]. - Taxable product sales generated revenue of 17.095 billion yuan, down 23% yoy, with a gross margin of 13.45%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points yoy [1]. Subsidiary Performance - Sanya's duty-free stores generated revenue of 20.418 billion yuan, down 28% yoy, with a net profit of 367 million yuan, down 86% yoy, and a net profit margin of 1.8%, down 7.5 percentage points yoy [2]. - The Shanghai subsidiary achieved revenue of 16.035 billion yuan, down 10% yoy, with a net profit of 513 million yuan, up 100% yoy, and a net profit margin of 3.2%, up 1.8 percentage points yoy [2]. - Haikou International Duty-Free City reported revenue of 5.574 billion yuan, down 18% yoy, with a net loss of 176 million yuan [2]. - Hainan Duty-Free Company generated revenue of 3.554 billion yuan, down 28% yoy, with a net profit of 58 million yuan, down 71% yoy, and a net profit margin of 1.6%, down 2.4 percentage points yoy [2]. Future Outlook - In 2024, the company plans to consolidate its advantages in port channels, having won the operating rights for 10 airport and port duty-free projects, leading to significant growth in domestic duty-free store sales [2]. - The company aims to optimize its city store layout, having won bids for new duty-free store projects in six cities including Shenzhen and Guangzhou [2]. - Expansion of overseas business is planned, with openings at Changi Airport in Singapore, Hong Kong International Airport, and other locations [2]. - The company will explore taxable business development, signing leasing agreements for taxable operations at Shanghai Hongqiao Airport and Harbin Taiping Airport [2]. Market Trends - In January and February 2025, Hainan's duty-free shopping reached 8.41 billion yuan, down 13% yoy, with actual shopping visitors at 1.097 million, down 29% yoy [3]. - The average spending per visitor in January and February was 6,760 yuan and 8,315 yuan, respectively, showing increases of 16% and 25% yoy [3]. - The company plans to deepen its market presence in Hainan and expand its domestic and overseas store layouts, aiming for significant growth in the coming years [3]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 61.6 billion yuan, 67.1 billion yuan, and 73.2 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 9% each year [3]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 4.9 billion yuan, 5.5 billion yuan, and 6.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 16%, 12%, and 14% respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 25, 23, and 20 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3].

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (CDFG) is facing significant challenges with a notable decline in performance, particularly in its duty-free business in Hainan, which is expected to be impacted by the upcoming closure of the island by the end of 2025 [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, CDFG reported operating revenue of 56.474 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.267 billion yuan, down 36.44% compared to the previous year, marking a continued decline following a significant profit drop in 2022 [1] - The cash flow from operating activities decreased by 47.51% in 2024, primarily due to reduced sales receipts, indicating increased pressure on the company's cash flow [2] Group 2: Market Challenges - The Hainan duty-free market, which constitutes a significant portion of CDFG's business, is facing uncertainty due to the planned closure, with a projected revenue decline of 27.13% in Hainan and a 10.02% drop in Shanghai [2] - Factors contributing to the decline in sales include insufficient purchasing power and a shift in consumer demand towards overseas markets [2] - CDFG has reported a significant inventory impairment loss of approximately 742 million yuan in 2024, an increase from 638 million yuan in 2023, reflecting the challenges in managing inventory amid declining sales [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The impact of the Hainan closure on the duty-free industry is expected to be profound, with various tax structures being restructured, although the specific effects remain uncertain [3] - CDFG is preparing for the changes by adjusting its product offerings and exploring taxable business channels, although these are anticipated to be more challenging and may lead to a decline in overall gross margins [3] - Industry analysts suggest that the company may recover more quickly from its current difficulties if it can effectively manage its taxable business alongside its duty-free operations [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Views - The company is expected to face performance pressure in 2024 due to a decline in traffic, particularly in Hainan's offshore duty-free shopping. However, it is anticipated to benefit from the expansion of city duty-free policies, which could stimulate domestic consumption [3][6]. - The company's market position remains strong, with an increase in market share despite the overall decline in Hainan's duty-free shopping amounts [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 13.5 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 19.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 348 million yuan, down 76.93% year-over-year [1]. - For the full year 2024, the company expects revenue of 56.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.38% year-over-year, and a net profit of 4.3 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-over-year. The gross margin is projected to be 32.0%, slightly up by 0.2 percentage points [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.05 yuan per share for 2024, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 50.91% [1]. Market Dynamics - In 2024, Hainan's offshore duty-free shopping amounted to 30.9 billion yuan, a decline of 29.3% year-over-year, with the number of shoppers decreasing by 15.9% [2]. - The company has seen a solidified market position, with a market share increase of nearly 2 percentage points despite the overall market decline [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the new city duty-free policies implemented in October 2024, which are likely to enhance domestic consumption and facilitate the return of overseas shopping demand [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 59 billion yuan, 63.5 billion yuan, and 69.4 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.7 billion yuan, 5.5 billion yuan, and 6.5 billion yuan [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with total revenue of 56.47 billion yuan, down 16.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [1][4]. - Despite the decline, the company is expected to benefit from the recovery of duty-free consumption and has strengthened its market share in the Hainan duty-free market, which increased by nearly 2 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The company has expanded its operations in various channels, including winning bids for duty-free projects at multiple airports and renewing agreements for city duty-free stores [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 13.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.46%, and a net profit of 0.35 billion yuan, down 76.93% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 28.5%, with a year-on-year decline of 3.5 percentage points [2]. Market Trends - The decline in Hainan's duty-free sales has narrowed, with sales of 8.41 billion yuan in January-February 2025, down 13.3% year-on-year, compared to a 29.3% decline for the entire year of 2024 [2]. Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 35.2% and 36.2%, respectively, with expected net profits of 4.97 billion yuan and 5.59 billion yuan [4][5]. - The report also includes a new forecast for 2027, projecting a net profit of 6.18 billion yuan [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics, including an expected EPS of 2.40 yuan for 2025 and a P/E ratio of 25 [5][12].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年3月31日 狀態: 新提交 FF301 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國旅遊集團中免股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年4月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01880 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 116,383,500 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 116,383,500 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 116,383,500 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 116,383,500 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 56.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [3][4] - The overall gross margin increased by 0.21 percentage points to 32.03% in 2024, despite the revenue decline [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10.5 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) to all shareholders [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 56.5 billion yuan, a decline of 16.38% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [3][4] - The diluted EPS for 2024 was 2.1 yuan, and the return on equity was 7.88% [3] - The operating cash flow for the year was 7.94 billion yuan [3] Revenue Breakdown - Sales of duty-free goods and taxable goods decreased by 12.58% and 23.49% respectively, with gross margins of 39.50% and 13.45% [5] - Revenue from Hainan and Shanghai regions was 28.89 billion yuan and 16.03 billion yuan, down 27.13% and 10.02% year-on-year, with gross margins of 23.73% and 25.80% respectively [5] Expense Analysis - The total selling expenses for 2024 were 9.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%, with a selling expense ratio of 16.0%, up 2.1 percentage points [6] - Management expenses were 1.99 billion yuan, with a management expense ratio of 3.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points [6] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate a revenue of 60.6 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 7.4%, with a net profit of 4.8 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5% [6][8] - The projected PE ratio for 2025 is between 30-35 times, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 69.6 to 81.2 yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group Co., Ltd. reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024, indicating challenges in the duty-free industry amid a slow global economic recovery and increased competition [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 56.474 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.267 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [1]. Market Challenges - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to a complex set of factors, including a sluggish global economic recovery and cautious consumer spending on non-essential goods [2]. - Increased competition in the duty-free sector, with new license holders entering the market and overseas duty-free markets vying for customers, has impacted the company's market share [2]. - Some stores experienced lower foot traffic due to fluctuations in the tourism market, and the rise of online channels has diverted sales from physical stores [2]. - In Hainan, the company's revenue was 28.892 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 51.16% of total revenue, which represents a year-on-year decline of 7.55 percentage points [2]. Future Opportunities - There is potential for growth if the government relaxes duty-free policies, such as increasing duty-free limits and expanding product categories, which could stimulate consumer spending [3]. - The recovery of the global tourism market is expected to significantly increase both outbound and inbound travel, benefiting airport duty-free stores [3]. - Digital transformation is a key focus area, with plans to enhance online shopping experiences and marketing strategies to tap into online consumer potential [3]. - Strengthening partnerships with brand owners to introduce exclusive and popular brands can enhance consumer appeal and drive revenue growth [3]. - The company is accelerating its global business expansion, having opened 8 new duty-free stores in international hubs like Singapore Changi and Dubai International Airport, and experience stores in key shopping districts [3]. - International business revenue grew by 37% during the reporting period, increasing its share of total revenue to 28% [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Add" for China Duty Free Group (601888) with a target price based on the last closing price of 61.61 [1] Core Views - The overall performance of China Duty Free Group is under pressure, awaiting a recovery in consumer spending [1] - The significant decline in revenue and net profit is attributed to multiple factors including market conditions and industry cycles, with a notable drop in consumer demand impacting the duty-free sector [5] - The company is expected to see a rebound in profits from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 49.51 billion, 57.09 billion, and 64.41 billion respectively, indicating a growth rate of 16.04%, 15.31%, and 12.81% [8] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 564.74 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit of 42.67 billion, down 36.44% [4][5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 134.53 billion, a decline of 19.46%, and a net profit of 3.48 billion, down 76.93% [4] - The sales revenue from duty-free goods was approximately 386.66 billion, a decrease of 12.58%, while sales from taxable goods fell to about 170.95 billion, down 23.49% [5] - The revenue from Hainan, a key market, dropped significantly by 27.13% to about 288.92 billion, despite an increase in market share [5] Growth Potential - The domestic duty-free business performed well, benefiting from the expansion of visa-free countries and increased international flight volumes, with revenue from Beijing airports growing over 115% and Shanghai airports nearly 32% [6] - The company has made significant progress in channel expansion, securing operating rights for 10 new airport and port duty-free projects, and has signed agreements for six city duty-free stores [6] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 32.03%, a slight increase of 0.21 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 8.61%, down 2.15 percentage points [7][8] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for 2025-2027 includes expected earnings per share (EPS) of 2.39, 2.76, and 3.11 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26X, 22X, and 20X [8][9] - Revenue projections for the next three years are 61.68 billion, 68.32 billion, and 75.32 billion, with growth rates of 9.23%, 10.76%, and 10.24% respectively [9]