2025年10月8日 证券研究报告 | 社服行业10月投资策略： 双节出游韧性增长，Q 4兼顾高景气方向与周期预期修复 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 社会服务 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：曾光 证券分析师：张鲁 证券分析师：杨玉莹 联系人：周瑛皓 0755-82150809 010-88005377 zengguang@guosen.com.cn zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn yangyuying@guosen.com.cn zhouyinghao@guosen.com.cn S0980511040003 S0980521120002 S0980524070006 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 ◼ 行情回顾：9月板块跑输大盘，低估值且存在边际改善信号标的或区域题材相对领涨。2025.9.1-9.30 A股消费者服务板块涨2.69%，跑输沪 深300 5.89pct；2025.9.1-10.6港股消费者服务板块涨0.27%，跑输中信港股通指数6.68pct，其中国庆假期跌1.78%，跑输2.15pct。个股来 看，低估值且出现边际改善信号如行动教育、港股高 ...

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國旅遊集團中免股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月8日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01880 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 116,383,500 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 116,383,500 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 116,383,500 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 116,383,500 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A ...

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國旅遊集團中免股份有限公司 FF301 呈交日期: 2025年10月8日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01880 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 116,383,500 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 116,383,500 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 116,383,500 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 116,383,500 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類 ...

国庆、中秋长假以来，海南旅游的热度持续攀升。 假期期间，海南离岛免税经营主体积极行动，通过拓宽消费场景、推出促销活动等方式，持续释放吸引 力。 据cdf中免集团微信公众号消息，10月5日，中免集团旗下cdf三亚国际免税城单日销售额突破1.2亿元。 热门免税品类供需两旺 各店开启花式迎客 当前，消费者对消费环境、体验等方面的要求越来越高。海南各大离岛免税经营主体积极顺应趋势，通 过优化购物体验、丰富消费产品以及提升消费服务等方式，更好地满足消费者个性化的消费需求。 假期期间，中免集团海南区域（以下简称"中免海南"）六大门店汇聚45大免税品类、超800家国内外知 名品牌，引入多家国际品牌旅游零售首店或概念旗舰店，持续推出中免定制、独家发售、限量版产品。 记者在cdf三亚国际免税城看到，泡泡玛特DIMOO"自然的形状"主题全国首展及快闪店已正式开幕。虽 然快闪店所处位置并非免税城热门区域，但前来选购盲盒的消费者络绎不绝，结账柜台前也排着长队。 中免海南方面向记者表示，随着海南离岛免税政策的持续优化与升级，中免集团将继续以"免税+"为支 点，积极推动"文商体旅康"多维融合，撬动文旅消费的无限可能。 10月1日，假期首 ...

(图：cdf三亚国际免税城) 随着中秋、国庆"黄金周"的持续推进，海南作为国内热门旅游目的地的热度不断攀升，阳光沙滩、椰风 海浪吸引着大批国内外游客前来打卡的同时，一场融合全球时尚潮流与沉浸式文旅体验的免税盛宴也在 如火如荼上演。10月5日，中免集团旗下cdf三亚国际免税城单日销售额突破1.2亿元，亮眼的成绩不仅 印证了中免集团围绕"首店经济、新品首发、全域营销、服务升级"四大维度同步发力所取得的显著成 效，更凸显出了"免税+文旅"深度融合下海南免税消费市场的强劲活力。 "首字经济"正当时，主题快闪轮番点燃游客购物热情 年初至今，包括蔻驰、雅诗兰黛、兰蔻等国际一线品牌的旅游零售首店或旗舰店相继落地，本次黄金周 期间，中免集团再次加码"首字经济"， 以"阅世界悦中免"为主题，45大免税品类、超800家国内外知名 品牌齐聚中免集团海南六大门店，多家国际品牌旅游零售首店或概念旗舰店，组成了强大的首店矩阵， 持续推出的中免定制、独家发售、限量版商品正不断点燃游客的双节购物热情。 在cdf三亚国际免税城，包括古驰、海蓝之谜、汤姆福特在内的知名品牌以快闪店的形式，不仅将品牌 最新系列、爆款单品第一时间带到游客面前，更通过 ...

10月3日 《经济日报》头版、2版刊发文章 《离岛免税业态升级》 版面图及全文如下 左右 核心体验之一 随着海南离岛免税政策的 不断优化 "免税购物天堂" 成为海南的又一张新名片 购物不再只是旅行的点缀 而成为游客赴琼旅游的 外国游客在三亚大东海旅游区购物。图源于三亚大东海旅游区 10月1日，位于海口市的海控全球精品免税城内，前来购物的消费者络绎不绝，在海南上大学的黄宇轩也是其中一员。"这是我第N次来免税城购物，这次 趁国庆假期出游来买一些护肤类产品。"黄宇轩说，海南离岛免税政策实施后，免税店成为她的购物首选，不仅价格优惠，新推出的"即购即提"政策也很 方便。 消费者在海控全球精品免税城内参与活动。图源于海控免税 海控全球精品免税城有限公司相关负责人介绍，近年来，免税城热卖商品格局有所改变，除传统热销产品外，彩妆、3C数码等品类销售增速较快，年轻 群体逐渐成为离岛免税购物的消费主力。这些年，为持续优化购物体验，免税城推出私享SPA、酒水品鉴等特色服务，全力打造海南离岛免税高端购物体 验新标杆。 资料图：海控全球精品免税城。南海网、南国都市报记者 李昊 摄 cdf海口国际免税城里，节日气息扑面而来。今年国庆中秋 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant boost in consumer spending during the eight-day holiday period coinciding with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, particularly in Guangzhou's tourism and retail sectors [1][11] - China Duty Free Group's Guangzhou duty-free store launched a series of promotional activities themed "Enjoy Duty-Free During the Festivals," offering substantial discounts and rewards to attract customers [1][4] Group 1: Promotions and Discounts - From October 1 to October 9, all duty-free products were available at a 20% discount, with popular electronic products offered at a 10% discount, enhancing the shopping experience for tech enthusiasts [1] - Members of the duty-free store could earn 10 times the points, which could be redeemed for cash, maximizing the value of their purchases [1][4] Group 2: Member Benefits and Special Events - Customers spending above certain thresholds received gifts, including premium wines and travel vouchers, with specific offers for members, such as a bottle of Lafite wine for spending over 1826 yuan [4] - The store designated the 26th of each month as "Member Privilege Day," providing exclusive benefits, including a luxury coupon package valued at 666 yuan and additional discounts through a mini-program [4] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts and Cultural Engagement - The duty-free store is expanding partnerships with local restaurants, attractions, and hotels to create an integrated "shopping, tourism, and entertainment" experience [7] - The store organized cultural activities, such as lantern displays and traditional games, to enhance the festive atmosphere and engage tourists, effectively increasing customer spending and conversion rates [7][11] Group 4: Customer Service Enhancements - The store implemented convenient services like immediate tax refunds for international tourists, multilingual support, and foreign currency exchange to facilitate a seamless shopping experience [11] - The overall strategy aims to transform the influx of international visitors into a growth engine for consumer spending, positioning Guangzhou as a premier destination for global tourists [11]

Group 1 - The tourism retail sector increased by 0.71% on September 29, with China Duty Free Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1] Group 2 - The tourism retail sector experienced a net outflow of 94.30 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 65.68 million yuan [2] - China Duty Free Group had a net outflow of 94.30 million yuan from institutional investors, representing a 5.30% net share [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 20.81% [1] - The company successfully won the operating rights for duty-free shops at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport T3 terminal and several other ports, enhancing its channel advantages in major international airports and ports [1] Financial Performance - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 662 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32.21% [1] - The company maintains a target price of 79.31 yuan based on a 35x PE ratio of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 [1] Business Expansion - As of January 2025, the company has obtained operating rights for duty-free shops in 13 cities, nearly doubling from the previous 7 [1] - New stores have been awarded in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Xi'an, Fuzhou, Chengdu, and Tianjin, enhancing the core city layout [1] International Market Development - The company has made significant strides in overseas expansion, entering the Vietnamese market for the first time this year with duty-free shops now open at Hanoi Noi Bai and Phu Quoc airports [1] - In the Hong Kong and Macau regions, the company has secured operating rights for the MCM pop-up store at Hong Kong Airport and the M8 city store in Macau, with plans to open these stores in the second half of the year [1] Market Outlook - With the recovery of consumer confidence, the restoration of international routes, and the introduction of visa-free policies, the demand for duty-free consumption is expected to be released [1] - The company's diversified channel layout is anticipated to drive long-term quality growth, maintaining solid value [1]

Group 1 - The tourism retail sector increased by 0.07% on September 26, with China Duty Free Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.11, down 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13209.0, down 1.76% [1] - The trading volume for China Duty Free Group was 284,700 shares, with a closing price of 70.20 [1] Group 2 - The tourism retail sector experienced a net outflow of 14.29 million yuan from institutional investors and 31.92 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 46.21 million yuan [1] - The net outflow from institutional investors for China Duty Free Group was 14.29 million yuan, accounting for -0.72% of the total, and from speculative funds was 31.92 million yuan, accounting for -1.60% [1] - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 46.21 million yuan, representing 2.32% of the total for China Duty Free Group [1]