Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 56.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [3][4] - The overall gross margin increased by 0.21 percentage points to 32.03% in 2024, despite the revenue decline [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10.5 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) to all shareholders [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 56.5 billion yuan, a decline of 16.38% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [3][4] - The diluted EPS for 2024 was 2.1 yuan, and the return on equity was 7.88% [3] - The operating cash flow for the year was 7.94 billion yuan [3] Revenue Breakdown - Sales of duty-free goods and taxable goods decreased by 12.58% and 23.49% respectively, with gross margins of 39.50% and 13.45% [5] - Revenue from Hainan and Shanghai regions was 28.89 billion yuan and 16.03 billion yuan, down 27.13% and 10.02% year-on-year, with gross margins of 23.73% and 25.80% respectively [5] Expense Analysis - The total selling expenses for 2024 were 9.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%, with a selling expense ratio of 16.0%, up 2.1 percentage points [6] - Management expenses were 1.99 billion yuan, with a management expense ratio of 3.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points [6] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate a revenue of 60.6 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 7.4%, with a net profit of 4.8 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5% [6][8] - The projected PE ratio for 2025 is between 30-35 times, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 69.6 to 81.2 yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group Co., Ltd. reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024, indicating challenges in the duty-free industry amid a slow global economic recovery and increased competition [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 56.474 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.267 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [1]. Market Challenges - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to a complex set of factors, including a sluggish global economic recovery and cautious consumer spending on non-essential goods [2]. - Increased competition in the duty-free sector, with new license holders entering the market and overseas duty-free markets vying for customers, has impacted the company's market share [2]. - Some stores experienced lower foot traffic due to fluctuations in the tourism market, and the rise of online channels has diverted sales from physical stores [2]. - In Hainan, the company's revenue was 28.892 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 51.16% of total revenue, which represents a year-on-year decline of 7.55 percentage points [2]. Future Opportunities - There is potential for growth if the government relaxes duty-free policies, such as increasing duty-free limits and expanding product categories, which could stimulate consumer spending [3]. - The recovery of the global tourism market is expected to significantly increase both outbound and inbound travel, benefiting airport duty-free stores [3]. - Digital transformation is a key focus area, with plans to enhance online shopping experiences and marketing strategies to tap into online consumer potential [3]. - Strengthening partnerships with brand owners to introduce exclusive and popular brands can enhance consumer appeal and drive revenue growth [3]. - The company is accelerating its global business expansion, having opened 8 new duty-free stores in international hubs like Singapore Changi and Dubai International Airport, and experience stores in key shopping districts [3]. - International business revenue grew by 37% during the reporting period, increasing its share of total revenue to 28% [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Add" for China Duty Free Group (601888) with a target price based on the last closing price of 61.61 [1] Core Views - The overall performance of China Duty Free Group is under pressure, awaiting a recovery in consumer spending [1] - The significant decline in revenue and net profit is attributed to multiple factors including market conditions and industry cycles, with a notable drop in consumer demand impacting the duty-free sector [5] - The company is expected to see a rebound in profits from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 49.51 billion, 57.09 billion, and 64.41 billion respectively, indicating a growth rate of 16.04%, 15.31%, and 12.81% [8] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 564.74 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit of 42.67 billion, down 36.44% [4][5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 134.53 billion, a decline of 19.46%, and a net profit of 3.48 billion, down 76.93% [4] - The sales revenue from duty-free goods was approximately 386.66 billion, a decrease of 12.58%, while sales from taxable goods fell to about 170.95 billion, down 23.49% [5] - The revenue from Hainan, a key market, dropped significantly by 27.13% to about 288.92 billion, despite an increase in market share [5] Growth Potential - The domestic duty-free business performed well, benefiting from the expansion of visa-free countries and increased international flight volumes, with revenue from Beijing airports growing over 115% and Shanghai airports nearly 32% [6] - The company has made significant progress in channel expansion, securing operating rights for 10 new airport and port duty-free projects, and has signed agreements for six city duty-free stores [6] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 32.03%, a slight increase of 0.21 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 8.61%, down 2.15 percentage points [7][8] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for 2025-2027 includes expected earnings per share (EPS) of 2.39, 2.76, and 3.11 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26X, 22X, and 20X [8][9] - Revenue projections for the next three years are 61.68 billion, 68.32 billion, and 75.32 billion, with growth rates of 9.23%, 10.76%, and 10.24% respectively [9]

旅游零售Ⅱ 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 Email：zhangji01@zts.com.cn Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn 基本状况 执业证书编号：S0740523060001 | 总股本(百万股) | 2,068.86 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 2,068.86 | | 市价(元) | 61.61 | | 市值(百万元) | 127,462.41 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 127,462.41 | 交易预期》2024-11-11 2、《23 年业绩符合预期，需求承压 下估值或不低》2024-04-09 中国中免（601888.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：郑澄怀 | | 营业收入（百万元 ...

2024年，中国中免交出了一份营收与净利润"双降"的成绩单。财报显示，公司全年实现营业收入564.74 亿元，同比下降16.38%；归母净利润42.67亿元，同比大幅缩水36.44%。这一下滑主要归因于核心市场 ——海南离岛免税业务的崩塌。 营收净利双降，海南市场成最大拖累 其一，海南市场"雪崩式"下滑。 海南地区营收从2023年的396.5亿元骤降至288.92亿元，同比降幅达27.13%，占总营收比例由58.71%降 至51.16%。海口海关数据显示，2024年海南离岛免税购物金额、购物人次、购物件数分别同比下降 29.3%、15.9%、35.5%。多重因素叠加导致这一结果： 出境游分流：国际航班恢复后，消费者转向日韩、东南亚等免税购物目的地； 消费降级与国货崛起：贝恩报告显示，2024年中国奢侈品市场出现15年来首次下滑，完美日记、花西子 等高性价比国货挤压进口美妆份额； 竞争加剧：海南免税经营主体增至6家，离岛免税店达12家，中免一家独大格局被打破。 其二，利润端压力凸显。 费用刚性：机场渠道租金随客流恢复上升，叠加存货跌价及合同履约成本减值损失7.4亿元，进一步压 缩利润空间； 四季度恶化：Q4归母 ...

投资分析意见：根据公司公告，公司拟向全体股东每股派发现金红利1.05 元，占24 年股东净利润的 50.91%。考虑到终端消费承压及出境游等对海南旅游消费的分流尚未看拐点，我们下调公司盈利预 测，预计25-26 年归母净利润为49.76/61.08 亿元（前值55.98/67.57亿元），新增27 年盈利预测为68.02 亿元，对应25-26 年PE 为26/21/19 倍，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：终端转化率不及预期，市内免税政策不及预期，海南离岛免税竞争加剧风险。 公司公布24 年年度报告，业绩低于预期。公司公布2024 年度报告。根据公司公告，2024年全年实现营 业收入564.7 亿元，同比下降16.38%，实现归属上市公司股东净利润42.7亿元，同比下降36.4%。公司 2024Q4 单季度实现归母净利润3.48 亿元，同比下滑76.9%。 从客流上海南两机场国内客流吞吐量有所增加，但离岛免税规模下降，公司市场份额有所提升。美兰国 际机场2024 全年累计完成运输航班超过18.5 万架次、旅客吞吐量超过2689万人次、货邮吞吐量超过20.9 万吨，同比增长8%/10.5%/19.7%，三大生产运 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a decline in performance for 2024, with total revenue of 56.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.4% [6] - The company is focusing on the growth of city duty-free stores as the offshore duty-free sales are under pressure [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.05 yuan per share, which accounts for 50.91% of the 2024 net profit [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 66.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.1% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 4.98 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.6% [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 30% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 8.4% [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) [1] Core Views - The macro consumption environment has impacted operations, but the company continues to strengthen its competitive advantages [10] - Despite a challenging environment, the company has maintained its market position and is expected to recover in the coming years [10] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 56.474 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.267 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [5] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 32.03%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 8.61%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points [5] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 7.939 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.51% [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.05 yuan per share, with a total dividend payout of 2.172 billion yuan, maintaining a payout ratio of 50.91% [5] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, sales revenue from duty-free goods was 38.666 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.58% year-on-year, accounting for 68.45% of total revenue [9] - Sales revenue from taxable goods was 17.095 billion yuan, down 23.49% year-on-year [9] - Revenue from Hainan region was 28.892 billion yuan, a decline of 27.13% year-on-year, while Shanghai region revenue was 16.035 billion yuan, down 10.02% year-on-year [9] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.015 billion yuan in 2025, 5.925 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.582 billion yuan in 2027 [10] - The estimated P/E ratios for the upcoming years are approximately 25.4 for 2025, 21.5 for 2026, and 19.4 for 2027 [10] Competitive Positioning - The company has introduced over 200 well-known international and domestic brands and has strengthened its online and offline collaboration [10] - It has secured operating rights for 10 airport and port duty-free projects, contributing to significant growth in domestic duty-free sales [10]

近日中国中免(601888)发布公告，2024年实现营业收入564.74亿元，同比下降16.38%；实现归母净利润42.67亿元，同 比下降36.44%。公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额同比下降47.51%，主要是报告期内销售收款减少所致。 按季度来看，公司2024年业绩呈现出加速下滑的态势，2024年第二、第三、第四季度，分别下滑37.6%、52.53%、 76.93%，其中第四季度利润同比降幅最大。公司的盈利能力也明显下降，去年第四季度销售毛利率为28.54%，创出 2023年来最低。以净资产收益率来看，中国中免的困境更为凸显，2024年加权平均净资产收益率仅为7.88%，为历史 同期最低。 需求承压是中国中免业绩下降的重要原因。根据海口海关数据，2024年全年，海口海关共监管海南离岛免税购物金额 309.4亿元，同比下降29.3%。展望2025年公司业绩能否好转依然存疑。今年1—2月，海南离岛免税购物金额84.1亿 元，同比下降13.3%。 部分机构也大幅下调中国中免未来业绩预期。其中，东吴证券最新预测公司2025年、2026年归母净利润分别为49.8亿 元和57.6亿元，此前预测为60.2亿元和69.7 ...

虽然业绩依旧承压，但中国中免在海南离岛免税市场的份额仍在增长。报告期内，中国中免在海南省拥 有6家离岛免税店。中国中免方面表示，在海南离岛免税市场的优势地位进一步稳固，市场份额同比提 升近2个百分点。 与海南地区业绩承压相比，中国中免机场免税业务在不断增长。中国中免方面表示，受益于免签国家范 围持续扩容、过境免签政策不断优化和国际客运航班量的持续增加，公司境内出入境免税门店销售实现 大幅增长。 不过境内免税赛道愈发拥挤，也让中国中免将目光投向境外市场以寻找增量。财报显示，2024年中国中 免持续扩大境外业务版图，实现新加坡樟宜机场精品店、香港国际机场精品店、日本东京银座珠宝类品 牌免税专柜以及斯里兰卡免税店开业。 资深旅游专家王兴斌认为，中国中免需要从供应链管理、渠道优化及价格策略等多维度提升竞争力，以 巩固其在海南市场的优势地位。随着市场竞争愈演愈烈，包括中国中免在内的各家免税企业，亟待开拓 新的业绩增长点。 北京商报记者 吴其芸 近日，中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司（以下简称"中国中免"）发布2024年财报。一方面，旗下海南离 岛免税板块业绩持续承压；另一方面，其机场免税店业务正在持续增长。随着免税玩家不断 ...