Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major airlines including China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others, while recommending "Hold" for YTO Express and Shentong Express [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the aviation sector driven by multiple factors, including the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak, the appreciation of the RMB easing cost pressures, and the increase in visa-free countries for Chinese citizens, which is expected to boost international travel demand [4][7]. - The anticipated passenger transport volume during the 2026 Spring Festival is projected to reach a historical high of 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [4]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical recovery of the civil aviation market, with expectations of rising passenger load factors and ticket prices, driven by a gradual recovery in demand and limited capacity growth [4][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - Daily flight operations from January 19 to January 23 showed slight fluctuations, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines operating 2,245.80 and 2,221.80 flights respectively, while year-on-year comparisons indicate a decrease in operations [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rates during the same period were reported, with Spring Airlines achieving the highest at 9.20 hours per day, although all airlines showed a decline compared to the previous year [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will significantly enhance market demand, particularly from student travelers, as the holiday season approaches [4][7]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report notes a divergence in the growth rates of express delivery companies, with a total of approximately 4.073 billion packages collected from January 12 to January 18, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.82% [7]. - It highlights the ongoing high-quality development of the express delivery industry, with policies aimed at reducing competition ("anti-involution") expected to improve profitability [7]. - The report recommends focusing on express companies with significant profit elasticity, such as Shentong Express and YTO Express, as well as those with strong growth potential in overseas markets like Jitu Express [7]. Infrastructure - The report tracks various transportation metrics, including highway and railway freight volumes, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [7]. - It suggests that the low-interest-rate environment will continue to support investment in infrastructure, with a focus on high-quality assets [7]. - Specific recommendations include investing in highway companies like Shandong Highway and Anhui Expressway, as well as railway companies like Daqin Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [7]. Shipping and Trade - The report indicates a mixed performance in shipping rates, with the SCFI index showing a decline of 7.39% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 28.73% [7]. - It emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in oil and bulk shipping due to geopolitical factors and structural demand growth [7]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and COSCO Shipping Holdings for oil shipping investments, as well as Hai Tong Development for bulk shipping [7].

Core Viewpoint - China COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers has won a bid for the complete vehicle logistics project of Chery Automobile in Peru, aiming to establish an efficient end-to-end vehicle supply chain system based in the Chancay Port of Peru, which will enhance Chery's market expansion in Latin America and deepen economic cooperation in the region [1] Group 1 - The project involves collaboration with various parties to build a high-efficiency supply chain for Chery's OMODA and JAECOO vehicles [1] - The initiative is expected to inject new momentum into Chery's expansion efforts in the Latin American market [1] - The logistics project is part of broader economic cooperation efforts in the Asia-Latin America trade [1]

Group 1 - The high dividend selection concept increased by 1.39%, ranking 10th among concept sectors, with 16 stocks rising, including Nanshan Aluminum, Dongfang Yuhong, and Lantian Gas, which rose by 7.49%, 7.03%, and 4.21% respectively [1][2] - The leading decliners in the high dividend selection sector included Action Education, Siwei Liekong, and Qianjiang Motorcycle, which fell by 2.62%, 1.43%, and 0.99% respectively [1][2] - The high dividend selection sector saw a net inflow of 388 million yuan from main funds, with 10 stocks receiving net inflows, and 6 stocks exceeding 30 million yuan in net inflow, led by Minsheng Bank with a net inflow of 115 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - The top stocks by net inflow ratio included Fusenmei, COSCO Shipping, and Minsheng Bank, with net inflow ratios of 14.94%, 10.54%, and 9.95% respectively [3][4] - The high dividend selection concept's top stocks by net inflow included Minsheng Bank, COSCO Shipping, Dongfang Yuhong, and Nanshan Aluminum, with respective net inflows of 115.39 million yuan, 100.27 million yuan, 72.47 million yuan, and 43.30 million yuan [3][4] - The overall market performance showed various sectors with significant fluctuations, with epoxy propylene leading the gainers at 5.78% and military information technology declining by 3.29% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping industry has not yet passed its worst period, with excess supply and the reopening of the Red Sea route likely leading to EBIT losses in 2026 [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - Bank of America Securities predicts that the first half of 2026 will be negatively impacted by a significant increase in vessel supply [1] - The second half of 2026 is expected to face increasing pressure from the anticipated reopening of the Red Sea route [1] - The expected losses will likely lead shipping companies to reduce shareholder returns in 2026 to preserve cash during the downturn [1] Group 2: Company Ratings - The bank maintains a "underperform" rating for COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919), Orient Overseas International (00316), and Evergreen Marine (2603.TW) [1] - A "neutral" rating is maintained for Japanese shipping companies due to current valuations being above historical lows [1] Group 3: Risks and Monitoring - Close attention is required regarding negative news related to the restoration of the Red Sea route [1] - There is a risk of further declines in spot freight rates as port congestion eases and seasonal factors diminish [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the container shipping industry has not yet passed its worst period, with excess supply and the reopening of the Red Sea route likely leading to EBIT losses in 2026 [1] - Bank of America Securities predicts that the first half of 2026 will be negatively impacted by a significant increase in vessel supply, while the second half will face increasing pressure from the prospects of the Red Sea reopening [1] - The anticipated losses are expected to prompt container shipping companies to reduce shareholder returns in 2026 to preserve cash during the downturn [1] Group 2 - The bank maintains a "underperform" rating on COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919), Orient Overseas International (00316), and Evergreen Marine (2603.TW), while holding a "neutral" rating on Japanese shipping companies due to current valuations being above historical lows [1] - There is a need to closely monitor negative news regarding the restoration of the Red Sea route, as well as the risk of further declines in spot freight rates due to easing port congestion and seasonal factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The container shipping industry has not yet passed its worst period, with excess supply and the reopening of the Red Sea route likely leading to EBIT losses in 2026 [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - Bank of America Securities predicts that the first half of 2026 will be heavily impacted by a significant increase in vessel supply [1] - The second half of 2026 is expected to face increasing pressure from the anticipated reopening of the Red Sea route [1] - The expected losses will likely lead container shipping companies to reduce shareholder returns in 2026 to preserve cash during the downturn [1] Group 2: Company Ratings - The bank maintains an "underperform" rating for COSCO Shipping Holdings, Orient Overseas, and Evergreen Marine [1] - A "neutral" rating is maintained for Japanese shipping companies due to current valuations being above historical lows [1] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Close attention is required regarding negative news related to the restoration of the Red Sea route [1] - There is a risk of further declines in spot freight rates as port congestion eases and seasonal factors diminish [1]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping and port sector experienced a rise of 1.07% on January 19, with Xiamen Port leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiamen Port (000905) closed at 13.60, up 5.59% with a trading volume of 510,700 shares and a transaction value of 690 million [1]. - COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) closed at 14.57, up 3.85% with a trading volume of 506,900 shares and a transaction value of 737 million [1]. - Strait Holdings (002320) closed at 11.08, up 3.84% with a trading volume of 610,700 shares and a transaction value of 673 million [1]. - China Merchants South Oil (601975) closed at 3.33, up 2.78% with a trading volume of 1,418,400 shares and a transaction value of 469 million [1]. - Haitong Development (603162) closed at 12.60, up 2.69% with a trading volume of 139,900 shares and a transaction value of 177 million [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector saw a net inflow of 176 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.08 billion [2]. - Major stocks like COSCO Shipping Energy and Strait Holdings attracted significant net inflows of 78.63 million and 58.81 million respectively from institutional investors [3]. - Conversely, retail investors withdrew 38.70 million from COSCO Shipping Energy and 56.58 million from Strait Holdings, indicating a divergence in investor sentiment [3].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has upgraded the rating of China COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) from "Sell" to "Buy," raising the target price from HKD 12.1 to HKD 15.9, despite negative investment sentiment in the container shipping industry expected until the end of 2025 [6]. Group 1: Company Analysis - The upgrade reflects a positive outlook on the risk-return profile for shipping companies in the Asia-Pacific region [6]. - China COSCO Shipping Holdings has a net cash per share of HKD 12, which supports its valuation [6]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The shipping industry is expected to face negative sentiment due to concentrated demand in the first half of 2025 and the resumption of traffic through the Suez Canal [6]. - Citigroup anticipates that freight rates will rise in the first half of 2026, driven by inventory replenishment demand in Western economies and managed supply [6]. - The overall valuation of Asia-Pacific shipping companies is attractive, with forecasted price-to-book ratios ranging from 0.6 to 0.8 times [6]. - The impact of weak domestic transportation demand in China and pressure from U.S. port fees is gradually diminishing [6].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup upgraded the rating of China COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) from "Sell" to "Buy," raising the target price from HKD 12.1 to HKD 15.9, despite negative investment sentiment in the container shipping industry expected until the end of 2025 [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - Citigroup believes that the risk-reward outlook for shipping companies in the Asia-Pacific region is positive [1] - China COSCO Shipping Holdings has a net cash per share of HKD 12, providing a strong financial foundation [1] - The impact of weak domestic transportation demand in China and pressure from U.S. port fees is gradually diminishing [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The container shipping industry is expected to face negative sentiment due to concentrated demand in the first half of 2025 and the restoration of traffic through the Suez Canal [1] - An anticipated increase in freight rates is expected in the first half of 2026, driven by inventory replenishment demand in Western economies and managed supply [1] - The current valuation of Asia-Pacific shipping companies is attractive, with projected price-to-book ratios ranging from 0.6 to 0.8 times [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the container shipping industry, particularly focusing on the implications of the reopening of the Red Sea and the Suez Canal for major shipping lines like Maersk and CMA CGM [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Service Resumption**: Maersk and CMA CGM have announced a return to the trans-Suez route, indicating improved stability in the Red Sea. This marks a significant shift since major shipping lines suspended operations in December 2023 [1]. 2. **Impact on Container Shipping**: The reopening of the Red Sea could lead to a reduction of approximately 10% in TEU-mile shipping demand on shorter routes, which may negatively affect earnings for container shipping companies, particularly COSCO Shipping Holdings [3][6]. 3. **Earnings Forecasts**: Under a scenario where the Red Sea reopens, COSCO Shipping Holdings could see a potential shift from profit to loss, with estimated net profit dropping to Rmb7 billion in 2026 from Rmb17.3 billion in the base case [9]. 4. **Free Cash Flow Analysis**: The free cash flow for COSCO is projected to be close to break-even in 2026, with a potential cash burn of Rmb16 billion annually in a worst-case scenario involving a price war due to increased capacity [6][9]. 5. **Market Reactions**: The Suez Canal traffic rates are expected to gradually improve, reaching normal levels by the second half of 2026, which could influence shipping rates positively [1][2]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Sector Impact**: The container shipping sector, particularly COSCO Shipping Holdings, is expected to face the largest negative impact from the reopening of the Red Sea, while the impact on ports is anticipated to be much lower [2]. 2. **Tanker Demand**: The reopening of the Red Sea is expected to have a limited impact on crude and product tanker demand, reducing it by only 2% [10]. 3. **Earnings Upside for Ports**: COSCO Shipping Port could benefit from a 2% earnings upside if the Red Sea reopens and rerouting stops [10]. 4. **Market Cap vs. Net Cash Position**: There is a significant gap projected between COSCO's net cash position and its current market cap, indicating potential undervaluation or risk [11]. Conclusion - The reopening of the Red Sea and the resumption of services by major shipping lines could significantly alter the landscape of the container shipping industry, with COSCO Shipping Holdings facing substantial risks. Investors should closely monitor these developments as they could lead to major shifts in earnings and cash flow for affected companies [3][6][9].