Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the machinery sector, indicating expected performance above the market average [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the trend of companies expanding overseas and identifies 2025 as the year of mass production for humanoid robots, presenting hardware investment opportunities [1][3]. - The easing of trade tensions between China and the US is expected to support the growth of domestic companies in overseas markets, particularly in the tool market where relocation to the US is challenging due to cost and efficiency advantages [3]. - Key companies to watch include Giant Technology, Changrun Co., Honghua Digital Science, and others, which are positioned to benefit from these trends [3][4]. Summary by Sections Recommended Stocks - The report lists preferred stocks with ratings: - Jack Co. (603337.SH) - Buy-A - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) - Buy-A - Zhejiang Rongtai (603119.SH) - Accumulate-A - Qiaocheng Ultrasonic (688392.SH) - Buy-A - Honghua Digital Science (688789.SH) - Buy-A - Tianzhun Technology (688003.SH) - Buy-A - Jiechang Drive (603583.SH) - Accumulate-A [2][10]. Industry Key Data Tracking - Forklifts: In June 2025, 137,570 units were sold, a 23.1% increase year-on-year. For the first half of 2025, sales totaled 739,334 units, up 11.7% [13]. - Excavators: June 2025 sales reached 18,804 units, a 13.3% increase. Total sales for the first half were 120,520 units, up 16.8% [14]. - Automotive Cranes: June sales were 1,649 units, down 5.28%. Total sales for the first half were 10,752 units, down 8.4% [17]. - Tower Cranes: June sales were 437 units, down 44.8%. Total sales for the first half were 2,771 units, down 38% [21]. - Loaders: June sales were 12,014 units, up 11.3%. Total sales for the first half were 64,769 units, up 13.6% [22]. - Metal Cutting Machine Tools: June production was 70,500 units, up 12.7%. Total production for the first half was 403,000 units, up 13.5% [24]. - Industrial Robots: June production was 74,764 units, up 37.9%. Total production for the first half was 379,000 units, up 35.6% [28].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.7%, with the CSI 300 also increasing by 0.7%, the STAR Market 50 up by 1.2%, the CSI 1000 up by 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.5% on Thursday [5][6] - The best-performing sectors included beauty care (+3.1%), non-ferrous metals (+2.8%), steel (+2.7%), retail (+2.6%), and non-bank financials (+2.1%), while the worst performers were banks (-1.4%), telecommunications (-0.2%), utilities (-0.1%), oil and petrochemicals (0.0%), and home appliances (+0.1%) [5][6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.8447 trillion yuan, with net inflows of 3.72 billion HKD from southbound funds [5][6] Key Recommendations Company: Guoquan (02517) - Guoquan is the largest in-home meal brand in China with 10,150 stores as of 2024, driven by a high-density store model and standardized supply [7][8] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 21.5% from 2020 to 2024, with over 51% of its stores located in lower-tier cities [7][8] - The penetration rate of prepared foods is projected to grow at a CAGR of 20.7%, reaching 15.0% by 2028, enhancing single-store revenue potential [7][8] Company: Lianlian Digital (02598) - Lianlian Digital is a leading global cross-border payment service provider with a focus on Web3 and the only company to obtain a VATP license [10][11] - The company is expected to see a revenue CAGR exceeding 30% from 2024 to 2027, with potential for growth to over 50% due to Web3 developments [10][11] - The current price corresponds to a PS ratio of 7.7x for this year, decreasing to 5.7x by 2026, with global stablecoin-related valuations ranging from 10-15x [10][11] Company: Jack Sewing Machine (603337) - Jack Sewing Machine is positioned to benefit from the recovery of the sewing equipment industry and the shift of the textile industry to Southeast Asia [12][13] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 7,113 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 16.73%, and a net profit of 1,080 million yuan [12][13] - The introduction of humanoid robots in the garment manufacturing sector could create a market space exceeding 600 billion yuan [12][13] Important Commentary Company: Hanyi Co., Ltd. (301270) - Hanyi Co., Ltd. announced the acquisition of a 39% stake in Shanghai Pidong for 67.3 million yuan, with an overall valuation of 262 million yuan [15] - This acquisition marks a strategic shift from a tool software provider to a cultural consumption ecosystem platform [15]

Company Overview - Jack Co. is a global leader in sewing equipment, maintaining the top sales position for 14 consecutive years, with sales surpassing Japan's Heavy Industries in 2021, making it the largest sewing equipment company globally [1] - The company has a strong distribution network, covering over 170 countries and regions with 8,000 dealerships by 2024, and continues to enhance profitability through a "hit product" strategy [1] Industry Insights - The global industrial sewing machine market is projected to grow from approximately $3.4 billion in 2024 to $6 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 5.9% [1] - The industry exhibits clear cyclical characteristics, with a cycle lasting 3-5 years, and is expected to rebound in 2024 due to improved domestic and international demand [1] - The market is highly concentrated, with the top three companies holding a 48% market share, and Jack Co. has strengthened its leading position since surpassing Japan's Heavy Industries in revenue [2] Competitive Advantages - Jack Co.'s core competitive advantage lies in its ability to provide scalable and digital solutions, with a focus on high-demand products like the "Quick Response King AMH2," which integrates AI features at a competitive price point [2] - The company emphasizes R&D investment, launching intelligent solutions that cover the entire sewing process, thereby creating a positive feedback loop of cost reduction, product quality improvement, and market share growth [2] Future Developments - The global apparel manufacturing industry, employing approximately 99.54 million people, faces challenges such as labor shortages and the need for quick response to small orders, driving the need for equipment automation [3] - Jack Co. plans to introduce an AI sewing machine prototype in 2024 and commence the development of a robotic sewing system in 2025, with the aim of launching humanoid robots by 2026 to lead the industry's smart upgrade [3] Financial Projections - Jack Co. is projected to achieve revenues of 7.113 billion, 7.473 billion, and 8.118 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.73%, 5.06%, and 8.63% respectively [4] - The company's net profit is expected to reach 1.08 billion, 1.208 billion, and 1.427 billion yuan during the same period, with growth rates of 32.97%, 11.80%, and 18.17% respectively [4] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 17.62, 15.76, and 13.34 for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting the company's strong market position and growth potential in the sewing equipment sector [4]

Group 1 - The report aims to summarize important weekly deep reports, significant commentary, and marginal changes within the macro strategy team of large manufacturing [1] - Core stocks identified by the team include Huada Jiutian, Shanghai Yanpu, Zhejiang Rongtai, and others [1] - The core portfolio consists of companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG Group, and others, indicating a focus on key players in the manufacturing sector [1] Group 2 - As of July 18, 2025, the best-performing indices in the last week included Communication (+8%), Pharmaceutical Biology (+4%), and Automotive (+3%) [2][13] - The top three indices in the large manufacturing sector were Changjiang Lithium Battery Equipment Index (+5%), Automotive Parts (+4%), and Automotive (+3%) [2][15] - A deep report on Xuguang Electronics highlights its leadership in domestic vacuum devices and growth potential in controllable nuclear fusion and electronic materials [4] Group 3 - The report indicates that the total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project has commenced, driving demand for construction machinery [3] - The defense sector is expected to benefit from military trade leading to strategic reassessment, particularly in regions like the Middle East [3] - The competitive landscape for vacuum arc extinguishing chambers shows a high concentration in the domestic market, with a CR2 of about 60% [5] Group 4 - The report forecasts a revenue CAGR of approximately 35% for the megawatt-level electronic tube segment from 2024 to 2027 [4] - The power equipment business is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of about 10% during the same period, driven by ongoing investments in the power grid [4] - The military business is projected to benefit from increased defense spending, with precision structural components expected to account for 58% of military revenue in 2024 [5] Group 5 - The report anticipates that the company will achieve revenues of 1.95 billion, 2.39 billion, and 3.03 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a CAGR of 24% [4] - The expected net profit for the same period is projected to be 170 million, 210 million, and 270 million yuan, with a CAGR of 39% [4] - The report highlights the company's strong position in the domestic aluminum nitride materials market, benefiting from domestic substitution trends [5] Group 6 - The report notes that the company has a high market share in the medical information technology sector, covering approximately 60% of tertiary hospitals by the end of 2024 [6] - The expected growth in the domestic medical software industry is projected at a CAGR of 11.5% from 2024 to 2029 [6] - The company is collaborating with major players like Huawei to develop a comprehensive intelligent medical information platform [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift of Chinese sewing machine manufacturers towards overseas markets due to domestic market challenges and geopolitical factors, highlighting the importance of innovation and smart manufacturing in maintaining competitiveness. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The domestic sewing machine market has seen a significant decline, nearly halving due to reduced demand from the apparel sector, while exports have continued to grow, partially offsetting this decline [3][4]. - The global sewing machine market is currently in a phase of stock competition, with the industry entering a low point after reaching a peak in 2021, but a gradual recovery is expected by the end of next year [3][4]. Group 2: International Expansion - Companies are increasingly focusing on international markets, with a notable shift towards regions like Bangladesh, which is predicted to become a major global apparel production hub [7]. - The trend of "going out" is seen as an opportunity for Chinese brands, as they adapt to local markets and face challenges such as safety and financial risks [6][7]. Group 3: Innovation and Smart Manufacturing - The article emphasizes the need for continuous innovation and upgrading within the Chinese manufacturing sector, particularly in smart manufacturing, to navigate global economic challenges [9][11]. - Jack Technology has introduced AI sewing machines that enhance the learning capabilities of sewing equipment, marking a significant step towards intelligent manufacturing [9][11]. Group 4: Industry Growth Projections - The China Sewing Machinery Association estimates that the total production of industrial sewing machines will reach approximately 6.85 million units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.32% [12]. - High-tech product exports from China have seen a growth of 9.2% in the first half of the year, with a notable increase in the share of self-owned brands [12].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic demand for sewing machines in China has significantly declined, leading companies to shift focus towards international markets to compensate for the loss in domestic sales [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The domestic sewing machine market has experienced a severe downturn, with demand nearly halved due to a decline in clothing orders and increased competition [2][5]. - In contrast, exports have been on the rise, partially offsetting the domestic market's decline, although the global sewing machine market is currently in a phase of stock competition [2][5]. - The overall sewing machine industry is expected to recover gradually by the end of next year after hitting a low point this year [2][5]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts - Companies are increasingly establishing offices in overseas markets such as Southeast Asia and Africa, transitioning from merely selling equipment to offering "equipment + services" [4][5]. - The trend of "going out" is seen as an opportunity, with Chinese brands gaining recognition in global markets, leading to a shift towards "import substitution" domestically and a trend of "big brand alternatives" internationally [4][5]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - The Chinese sewing machine industry is focusing on innovation and upgrading to remain competitive amid global economic challenges [7][8]. - The introduction of AI sewing machines by leading companies marks a significant step towards integrating advanced technology into manufacturing processes [7][8]. - The industry is also exploring new applications for sewing equipment in various sectors, such as automotive and toys, to find growth opportunities despite a contraction in clothing orders [8]. Group 4: Future Projections - The China Sewing Machinery Association estimates that the total production of industrial sewing machines will reach approximately 6.85 million units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.32% [9]. - The export market for high-tech products from China has shown consistent growth, with a 9.2% increase in the first half of this year, indicating a strong international demand for Chinese manufacturing [9][10].

Core Insights - Jack Company celebrated its 30th anniversary and launched the world's first AI sewing machine at a global technology conference in Taizhou, Zhejiang [1][2] - The company aims to build a world-class talent system and integrate industry chain resources to create the largest rapid flexible garment manufacturing platform [1] - The company is committed to investing in green energy, humanoid robots, and AI automation to support the transformation of the garment industry and achieve its "trillion Jack" goal [1] Company Developments - The company has produced its 30 millionth smart sewing machine, marking a significant milestone in its production capabilities [1] - The newly launched AI sewing machine incorporates the first deep artificial intelligence model in the industry, enhancing the learning capabilities of sewing equipment [2] - Jack Company is accelerating the industrial application of AI technology in garment manufacturing, with a focus on high-end products such as AI sewing machines, AI smart cutting equipment, humanoid robots, and unmanned template machines [2] Industry Challenges - The global garment manufacturing industry faces challenges such as industrial transfer, quality upgrades, and low willingness of young workers to engage in the sector [1][2] - The integration of motor control technology with AI and software is essential for supporting small-batch, quick-response, and customized production in the industry [2]

Macro Insights - The macro policy for the second half of the year may involve non-traditional measures, with a focus on price stability and the marginal improvement of asset prices, particularly in equity products [2][32] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive companies to reduce capital expenditures and clear excess capacity, leading to improved economic supply-demand relationships and enhanced corporate profitability [3][44] Strategy Insights - The "anti-involution" trend is identified as a key driver for a bullish market, with high-quality stocks likely to play a crucial role in pushing indices higher [3][44] - AI is recognized as a core driver of the current technological revolution, creating investment opportunities across multiple industries in the A-share market [3][44] - Key sectors to watch in July include solid-state batteries, domestic computing power, non-bank financials, defense and military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, all showing signs of marginal improvement [3][44] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3510.18, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.09% [5][7] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10696.10, with a weekly increase of 1.78% [8] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7% in June, indicating a slight recovery, while the construction PMI significantly improved to 52.8% due to accelerated infrastructure projects [12][13] - Consumer spending showed mixed results, with significant growth in automobile and home appliance sales driven by government subsidies, while other sectors like clothing and cosmetics remained weak [13][14] Industry Trends - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with declining sales and investment, leading to a negative outlook for related sectors [13][14] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to address price competition and improve product quality, particularly in the durable consumer goods sector [30][44]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The industrial sewing machine industry exhibits significant cyclicality, with Jack's performance surpassing the industry in each upcycle, establishing itself as a global leader. The company is expected to continue increasing its market share through superior product capabilities and is actively promoting automation and unmanned transformation, indicating substantial growth potential [1][6][9]. Summary by Sections Industrial Sewing Machine Industry: Cyclical Fluctuations and Demand Divergence - The industrial sewing machine industry in China has experienced two phases: a growth phase from 1999 to 2007 and a cyclical phase from 2008 to present. The current cycle began to recover in Q3 2023, with production expected to reach 6.85 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.32% [6][14]. - Domestic demand is anticipated to face pressure in 2025, while overseas markets are expected to remain supported by inventory replenishment and supply chain restructuring [6][24]. Jack's Competitive Positioning - Jack is the global leader in the industrial sewing machine market, with a market share exceeding 30%. The company has successfully implemented a "fast response king" and "over梗 king" product strategy, focusing on high-demand products to enhance efficiency and profitability [6][32][52]. - The average selling price of Jack's industrial sewing machines is projected to rise from 2,195.6 yuan/unit in 2021 to 2,481.7 yuan/unit in 2024, contributing to an increase in gross margin from 23% to 31.28% during the same period [6][38]. Future Trends and Innovations - Jack is at the forefront of the trend towards automation and unmanned production in the sewing industry, addressing labor shortages and enhancing digital transformation. The company has launched a digital integrated solution and is exploring unmanned solutions to facilitate machine replacement for human labor [7][55][60]. - The introduction of high-end AI sewing machines and robotic systems is expected to further solidify Jack's competitive edge and open new growth avenues [7][61]. Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for Jack is expected to reach 71.64 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 9.73 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% increase [8][9]. - The company's PE ratio is projected to decrease from 30.9 in 2023 to 17.1 in 2025, indicating an attractive valuation as the company continues to grow [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the humanoid robot industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [26]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot concept index increased by 6.57% from June 22 to June 27, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.61 percentage points. Year-to-date, the humanoid robot index has risen by 36.88%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 34.22 percentage points [2][11]. - Key companies in the humanoid robot sector are actively pursuing technological advancements and strategic partnerships, with significant investments being made to enhance product capabilities and market reach [4][5][22]. Weekly Market Review - The humanoid robot index saw a weekly increase of 6.57%, with notable performers including Liyuanheng, which rose by 30.89%, while Jack Co. experienced a decline of 7.67% [11][12]. - The report highlights the growth of the humanoid robot industry, with various companies announcing new product developments and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing their market positions [3][4]. Weekly Hotspots Review Policy Developments - Shandong aims to exceed a robot manufacturing industry scale of 50 billion yuan by 2027, fostering the growth of leading enterprises [3]. - Zhengzhou's AI innovation plan targets the establishment of 100 high-growth AI companies by the end of 2025, with a core industry scale exceeding 35 billion yuan [3][17]. Product and Technology Iteration - Innovations include the development of soft gel materials for robot skin that can sense pressure and temperature, and a high-resolution tactile sensing robotic hand [3][19]. - Google DeepMind introduced the Gemini Robotics On-Device model, enabling local operation of robots without internet connectivity [20]. Investment and Financing - Galaxy General completed a new round of financing amounting to 1.1 billion yuan, with total financing exceeding 2.4 billion yuan over two years [21]. - CASBOT secured nearly 100 million yuan in angel financing, while Feixi Technology completed a C round of financing in the hundreds of millions of dollars [21]. Key Company Announcements - Haier has established a robotics division focusing on both industrial and domestic service robots, with plans to evolve towards humanoid robots [4][24]. - Aon Electric has formed a robotics subsidiary, developing products applicable to service and humanoid robots [22].