Core Viewpoint - The company has signed a contract with Bank of Communications Co., Ltd. Shanghai Minhang Branch to provide a guarantee of up to RMB 81.45 million for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Shanghai Milkway Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Guarantee Details** - The guarantee amount is capped at RMB 81.45 million, with the company assuming joint liability [1] - This guarantee falls within the company's estimated guarantee limit for the year 2025, having been approved by the fourth board meeting and the 2024 annual general meeting [1] - **Current Guarantee Status** - As of the announcement date, the total external guarantee balance for the company and its subsidiaries is RMB 460.81 million, which represents 106.72% of the company's most recent audited net assets [1] - There are no overdue guarantees reported [1]

Market Overview - The logistics sector increased by 0.36% on November 6, with ST Xuefa leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4007.76, up 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13452.42, up 1.73% [1] Top Gainers in Logistics Sector - ST Xuefa (002485) closed at 4.94, up 5.11% with a trading volume of 89,700 shares and a turnover of 44.11 million yuan [1] - *ST Yuanshang (603813) closed at 31.15, up 4.95% with a trading volume of 9,205 shares and a turnover of 27.98 million yuan [1] - Jiayou International (603871) closed at 14.54, up 3.64% with a trading volume of 128,200 shares and a turnover of 186 million yuan [1] Top Losers in Logistics Sector - Xiamen Xiangyu (600057) closed at 8.39, down 3.12% with a trading volume of 489,700 shares and a turnover of 409 million yuan [2] - Huami Duhai (920351) closed at 26.55, down 2.82% with a trading volume of 23,000 shares and a turnover of 6.14 million yuan [2] - Changjiang Investment (600119) closed at 8.74, down 2.78% with a trading volume of 75,400 shares and a turnover of 6.60 million yuan [2] Capital Flow in Logistics Sector - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 94.34 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 65.24 million yuan [2] - The main stocks with significant net inflows included SF Holding (002352) with 64.23 million yuan and Shanghai Yashi (603329) with 23.05 million yuan [3] Detailed Capital Flow Analysis - SF Holding (002352) had a main net inflow of 64.23 million yuan, but retail and speculative investors saw net outflows of 33.92 million yuan and 30.31 million yuan respectively [3] - Shanghai Yashi (603329) had a main net inflow of 23.05 million yuan, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 19.25 million yuan [3] - New Ning Logistics (300013) recorded a main net inflow of 18.31 million yuan, while retail investors had a net outflow of 12.91 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Milkway experienced a decline of 2.02% on November 4, with a trading price of 57.61 yuan per share and a total market capitalization of 9.11 billion yuan. The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 14.10% but has faced recent declines over the past five and twenty trading days [1]. Company Overview - Milkway Intelligent Supply Chain Service Group Co., Ltd. is located in Shanghai and was established on March 28, 1997. It was listed on July 13, 2018. The company specializes in providing comprehensive logistics services, focusing on freight forwarding, warehousing, and transportation, and has expanded into chemical product distribution [1]. - The main revenue composition of the company includes: 48.08% from MCD unique distribution, 24.02% from MGF global freight forwarding, 17.40% from MWT integrated warehousing and distribution, 9.96% from MGM global mobility, and 0.53% from other services [1]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, Milkway reported a total revenue of 10.67 billion yuan for the first nine months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.70%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 525 million yuan, which represents a 7.04% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 444 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 288 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Milkway was 11,300, a decrease of 9.63% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 10.66% to 14,034 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the third-largest shareholder with 11.31 million shares, a decrease of 1.33 million shares from the previous period. New shareholder Qianhai Kaiyuan Public Utilities Stock holds 6.10 million shares [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector is showing resilience in demand, with a "de-involution" trend leading to price increases, which is expected to enhance corporate profitability. Long-term positive competition opportunities are anticipated in the e-commerce express delivery market [14] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in the oil transportation market anticipated in Q4 2025 [14] - The shipbuilding sector is in the early stages of a green renewal cycle, with demand driven by shipping market recovery and green updates. The shipbuilding market is expected to see improved activity as various constraints ease [14] - The aviation sector is projected to see Q3 performance as a signal for a long-term market upturn, with stable demand growth and cost improvements expected [14] - The supply chain logistics sector is expected to see performance elasticity from the transformation of logistics parks in South China, with a focus on high dividends and value reassessment [15] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The "Tongda" companies reported Q3 2025 performance with improved single-ticket profits, reflecting the impact of price increases. YTO, Shentong, and Yunda's revenues were 18.27 billion, 13.55 billion, and 12.66 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.73%, 13.62%, and 3.29% [5] - YTO's business volume reached 7.721 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.0%, while Shentong and Yunda's volumes were 6.515 billion and 6.417 billion pieces, with year-on-year growth of 10.7% and 6.6% [5] Shipping - VLCC TCE rates surged to $125,000/day, a 10-year high, driven by tightening capacity and increasing demand [7] - The SCFI index rose by 10.5% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in container shipping rates [8] - The BDTI index increased by 8.47% week-on-week, reflecting rising oil tanker rates [9] Aviation - Global passenger demand grew by 3.6% in September 2025, with a load factor of 83.4% [10] - China National Airlines plans to purchase up to 10 A350F freighters, with a total value of approximately $4.65 billion [11] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were stable from October 20 to 26, with rail freight at 79.224 million tons, a 1.37% decrease [12] - Sichuan Chengyu reported Q3 2025 revenue of 1.96 billion yuan, a 1.52% year-on-year decline, but net profit increased by 8.96% [13]

Core Viewpoint - Milkyway has established itself as a leading specialized chemical supply chain service provider in China, showcasing significant investment value through its comprehensive service capabilities across the entire industry chain [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Milkyway achieved a revenue of 10.67 billion, ranking 2nd in the industry, while the top competitor, Sinotrans, reported a revenue of 47.787 billion [2] - The net profit for the same period was 622 million, placing Milkyway at the top of the industry rankings, outperforming Sinotrans's net profit of 484 million [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Milkyway's debt-to-asset ratio stood at 73.63%, significantly higher than the previous year's 61.59% and above the industry average [3] - The gross profit margin was recorded at 11.37%, slightly up from 11.08% year-on-year, but still below the industry average of 24.94% [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 9.63% to 11,300, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder increased by 10.66% to 14,000 [5] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited held 11.3135 million shares, a decrease of 1.3328 million shares from the previous period [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts from Shenwan Hongyuan project that Milkyway's revenue will grow by 11.7% year-on-year, with net profit expected to increase by 7% in the first three quarters of 2025, despite pressure on Q3 profits [5] - Huayuan Securities notes that the integrated trade strategy is showing results, with total assets growing and distribution business expanding, anticipating an upward turning point in performance as the chemical cycle bottoms out [6]

Core Insights - Milkyway reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 11.7% for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating steady business expansion, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 7%, showing a slowdown in growth [1] - The company's Q3 2025 single-quarter net profit declined by 3.51% year-on-year, reflecting pressure on profits despite the overall positive trend [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the improving gross margins in its chemical logistics, warehousing, distribution, and sales businesses due to the reversal of the "involution" trend in the chemical industry [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue reached 10.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 525 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.04% [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025E-2027E is 672 million, 818 million, and 1.026 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 11, and 9 times [1] Strategic Outlook - The company continues to implement its overseas expansion strategy, which is expected to enhance its long-term development prospects [1] - The overall outlook remains positive, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the company's performance and growth potential [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 11.7% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit growth of 7%, indicating a slight slowdown in performance [5] - The company is expected to benefit from improvements in gross margins across its chemical logistics, warehousing, distribution, and sales businesses due to a favorable market environment [5] - The company continues to pursue an overseas expansion strategy, which is anticipated to enhance its long-term growth prospects [5] - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits of 672 million, 818 million, and 1,026 million for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 14, 11, and 9 [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 12,118 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.3% [4] - For 2025, total revenue is expected to reach 13,815 million, with a growth rate of 14.0% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 672 million in 2025, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year growth [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 4.25 yuan [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.4% in 2024 to 11.6% in 2025 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 11.2% in 2025 to 14.0% in 2026 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Milkwell has seen a 5% increase in stock price, reaching 60.47 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 9.562 billion CNY [1] - Milkwell specializes in integrated logistics services for the chemical supply chain, offering services such as freight forwarding, warehousing, and transportation, with a revenue composition that includes 48.08% from MCD distribution, 24.02% from MGF global freight, 17.40% from MWT integrated warehousing and distribution, and 9.96% from MGM global mobility [1] - The company is located in Shanghai and was established on March 28, 1997, with its listing date on July 13, 2018 [1] Group 2 - According to data, the Fuguo Fund has a significant holding in Milkwell, with the Fuguo Vision Value Mixed A fund holding 32,000 shares, representing 2.82% of the fund's net value, ranking as the tenth largest holding [2] - The Fuguo Vision Value Mixed A fund has a total scale of 35.4991 million CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 11.61%, ranking 5658 out of 8154 in its category [2] - The fund manager, Pu Shilin, has been in position for nearly 7 years, with the fund's best return during his tenure being 145.54% and the worst being -21.53% [3]

New Consumption - The company Ruyuchen (003010.SZ) reported a 73% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in its proprietary brands [2][10] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.14 billion yuan, an 85% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 105 million yuan, up 82% [2][10] - The proprietary brand business accounted for 55.1% of total revenue, with brands like Zhanjia and Feicui maintaining high growth rates [11][12] Metal New Materials - Xiamen Tungsten (600549.SH) exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, with revenue of 12.82 billion yuan, a 39.3% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 810 million yuan, up 109.9% [15][16] - The tungsten and molybdenum segment saw significant profit growth due to rising tungsten prices, with Q3 profits reaching 1.06 billion yuan, a 98.3% increase year-on-year [16][18] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for cobalt lithium in the energy new materials sector, with a 45% year-on-year increase in sales volume [17][18] Transportation - Milkewei (603713.SH) reported a 2.1% increase in revenue to 3.64 billion yuan in Q3 2025, although net profit decreased by 3.5% to 173 million yuan [20][21] - The company's integrated logistics strategy is showing results, with total assets growing by 41.42% year-on-year, indicating rapid expansion in distribution business [21][23] - The gross margin improved to 11.2%, driven by optimization in distribution product categories [21][22] Machinery/Building Materials - Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ) experienced a revenue decline of 10.76% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit down 13.52% [25][26] - The company reported a slight improvement in performance due to investment gains, with a gross margin of 43.04% in Q3 [26][27] - The company is facing challenges in operational performance despite a healthy cash flow situation [27][28] Overseas/Education Research - Tiangong International (00826.HK) is transitioning from a cutting tool manufacturer to a leader in high-end materials, focusing on powder metallurgy and titanium alloy sectors [34][35] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in high-value sectors such as aerospace and consumer electronics [36][38] - The powder metallurgy technology is seen as a key platform for entering strategic new materials and high-end manufacturing markets, potentially enhancing both performance and valuation [37][38] North Exchange - Jianbang Technology (920242.BJ) reported a 9% year-on-year revenue increase to 586 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, despite facing credit loss provisions [39][40] - The company is expanding its product offerings in the automotive electronics sector and has initiated production at its Thailand factory [41][42] - Future growth is anticipated from the development of optoelectronic hybrid interconnection products and a focus on non-automotive components [42]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The effectiveness of the integrated logistics strategy is becoming evident, with anticipation for a recovery in chemical demand [5][6] - The company's Q3 revenue showed a slight increase of 2.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.5% [6] - The total assets increased by 41.42% year-on-year, indicating rapid expansion in distribution business [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 9,753 million RMB - 2024: 12,118 million RMB (24.26% growth) - 2025E: 13,311 million RMB (9.84% growth) - 2026E: 15,303 million RMB (14.96% growth) - 2027E: 17,192 million RMB (12.35% growth) [5][7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 431 million RMB in 2023 to 862 million RMB in 2027, with a growth rate of 31.04% in 2024 [5][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 2.73 RMB in 2023 to 5.45 RMB in 2027 [5][7] Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its cash flow significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities reaching 940 million RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, compared to -160 million RMB in the same period last year [6] - The net operating cycle is approximately 50 days, a reduction of 3 days year-on-year, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6] Strategic Developments - The logistics network is continuously optimized, with significant progress in building hazardous chemical support and expanding into lower-tier markets [6] - The company has successfully developed clients in three major sectors: new energy, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, indicating a diversified client base [6]