Group 1 - The company, Milkwater (SH 603713), announced that as of the disclosure date, the total external guarantee balance of the company and its subsidiaries is approximately RMB 4.608 billion, which accounts for 106.72% of the company's most recent audited net assets attributable to shareholders [1][1][1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Milkwater is as follows: logistics accounts for 51.39%, trading accounts for 48.08%, and other businesses account for 0.53% [1][1][1] - As of the time of reporting, Milkwater has a market capitalization of RMB 9.5 billion [1][1][1]

| 证券代码：603713 | 证券简称：密尔克卫 | 公告编号：2025-091 | | --- | --- | --- | | 转债代码：113658 | 转债简称：密卫转债 | | 密尔克卫智能供应链服务集团股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 密尔克卫智能供应链服务集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2025 年 10 月 29 日发布公司 2025 年第三季度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地 了解公司 2025 年第三季度经营成果、财务状况，公司计划于 2025 年 11 月 17 日 13:00-14:00 举行 2025 年第三季度业绩说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 一、说明会类型 本次投资者说明会以网络互动形式召开，公司将针对 2025 年第三季度的经 营成果及财务指标的具体情况与投资者进行互动交流和沟通，在信息披露允许的 范围内就投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 （二）会议召开地点：上证路演中心 （三）会议召开 ...

| 证券代码：603713 | 证券简称：密尔克卫 | 公告编号：2025-090 | | --- | --- | --- | | 转债代码：113658 | 转债简称：密卫转债 | | 密尔克卫智能供应链服务集团股份有限公司 关于为控股子公司提供担保的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： | | | 被担保人名称 | 下简称"密尔克卫供应链"） | | 上海密尔克卫供应链管理有限公司（以 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 担 保 | 对 | 本次担保金额 | 8,145.00 | 万元 | | | 象一 | | 实际为其提供的担保余额 | 8,145.00 | 万元 | | | | | 是否在前期预计额度内 | | 是 □否 | □不适用：_________ | | | | 本次担保是否有反担保 | | □是 否 | □不适用：_________ | | 担 保 | 对 | 被担保人名称 | 宝华"） | 万元 | 镇江宝华物流有限公司（以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has signed a contract with Bank of Communications Co., Ltd. Shanghai Minhang Branch to provide a guarantee of up to RMB 81.45 million for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Shanghai Milkway Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Guarantee Details** - The guarantee amount is capped at RMB 81.45 million, with the company assuming joint liability [1] - This guarantee falls within the company's estimated guarantee limit for the year 2025, having been approved by the fourth board meeting and the 2024 annual general meeting [1] - **Current Guarantee Status** - As of the announcement date, the total external guarantee balance for the company and its subsidiaries is RMB 460.81 million, which represents 106.72% of the company's most recent audited net assets [1] - There are no overdue guarantees reported [1]

Market Overview - The logistics sector increased by 0.36% on November 6, with ST Xuefa leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4007.76, up 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13452.42, up 1.73% [1] Top Gainers in Logistics Sector - ST Xuefa (002485) closed at 4.94, up 5.11% with a trading volume of 89,700 shares and a turnover of 44.11 million yuan [1] - *ST Yuanshang (603813) closed at 31.15, up 4.95% with a trading volume of 9,205 shares and a turnover of 27.98 million yuan [1] - Jiayou International (603871) closed at 14.54, up 3.64% with a trading volume of 128,200 shares and a turnover of 186 million yuan [1] Top Losers in Logistics Sector - Xiamen Xiangyu (600057) closed at 8.39, down 3.12% with a trading volume of 489,700 shares and a turnover of 409 million yuan [2] - Huami Duhai (920351) closed at 26.55, down 2.82% with a trading volume of 23,000 shares and a turnover of 6.14 million yuan [2] - Changjiang Investment (600119) closed at 8.74, down 2.78% with a trading volume of 75,400 shares and a turnover of 6.60 million yuan [2] Capital Flow in Logistics Sector - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 94.34 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 65.24 million yuan [2] - The main stocks with significant net inflows included SF Holding (002352) with 64.23 million yuan and Shanghai Yashi (603329) with 23.05 million yuan [3] Detailed Capital Flow Analysis - SF Holding (002352) had a main net inflow of 64.23 million yuan, but retail and speculative investors saw net outflows of 33.92 million yuan and 30.31 million yuan respectively [3] - Shanghai Yashi (603329) had a main net inflow of 23.05 million yuan, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 19.25 million yuan [3] - New Ning Logistics (300013) recorded a main net inflow of 18.31 million yuan, while retail investors had a net outflow of 12.91 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Milkway experienced a decline of 2.02% on November 4, with a trading price of 57.61 yuan per share and a total market capitalization of 9.11 billion yuan. The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 14.10% but has faced recent declines over the past five and twenty trading days [1]. Company Overview - Milkway Intelligent Supply Chain Service Group Co., Ltd. is located in Shanghai and was established on March 28, 1997. It was listed on July 13, 2018. The company specializes in providing comprehensive logistics services, focusing on freight forwarding, warehousing, and transportation, and has expanded into chemical product distribution [1]. - The main revenue composition of the company includes: 48.08% from MCD unique distribution, 24.02% from MGF global freight forwarding, 17.40% from MWT integrated warehousing and distribution, 9.96% from MGM global mobility, and 0.53% from other services [1]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, Milkway reported a total revenue of 10.67 billion yuan for the first nine months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.70%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 525 million yuan, which represents a 7.04% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 444 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 288 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Milkway was 11,300, a decrease of 9.63% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 10.66% to 14,034 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the third-largest shareholder with 11.31 million shares, a decrease of 1.33 million shares from the previous period. New shareholder Qianhai Kaiyuan Public Utilities Stock holds 6.10 million shares [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector is showing resilience in demand, with a "de-involution" trend leading to price increases, which is expected to enhance corporate profitability. Long-term positive competition opportunities are anticipated in the e-commerce express delivery market [14] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in the oil transportation market anticipated in Q4 2025 [14] - The shipbuilding sector is in the early stages of a green renewal cycle, with demand driven by shipping market recovery and green updates. The shipbuilding market is expected to see improved activity as various constraints ease [14] - The aviation sector is projected to see Q3 performance as a signal for a long-term market upturn, with stable demand growth and cost improvements expected [14] - The supply chain logistics sector is expected to see performance elasticity from the transformation of logistics parks in South China, with a focus on high dividends and value reassessment [15] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The "Tongda" companies reported Q3 2025 performance with improved single-ticket profits, reflecting the impact of price increases. YTO, Shentong, and Yunda's revenues were 18.27 billion, 13.55 billion, and 12.66 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.73%, 13.62%, and 3.29% [5] - YTO's business volume reached 7.721 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.0%, while Shentong and Yunda's volumes were 6.515 billion and 6.417 billion pieces, with year-on-year growth of 10.7% and 6.6% [5] Shipping - VLCC TCE rates surged to $125,000/day, a 10-year high, driven by tightening capacity and increasing demand [7] - The SCFI index rose by 10.5% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in container shipping rates [8] - The BDTI index increased by 8.47% week-on-week, reflecting rising oil tanker rates [9] Aviation - Global passenger demand grew by 3.6% in September 2025, with a load factor of 83.4% [10] - China National Airlines plans to purchase up to 10 A350F freighters, with a total value of approximately $4.65 billion [11] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were stable from October 20 to 26, with rail freight at 79.224 million tons, a 1.37% decrease [12] - Sichuan Chengyu reported Q3 2025 revenue of 1.96 billion yuan, a 1.52% year-on-year decline, but net profit increased by 8.96% [13]

Core Viewpoint - Milkyway has established itself as a leading specialized chemical supply chain service provider in China, showcasing significant investment value through its comprehensive service capabilities across the entire industry chain [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Milkyway achieved a revenue of 10.67 billion, ranking 2nd in the industry, while the top competitor, Sinotrans, reported a revenue of 47.787 billion [2] - The net profit for the same period was 622 million, placing Milkyway at the top of the industry rankings, outperforming Sinotrans's net profit of 484 million [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Milkyway's debt-to-asset ratio stood at 73.63%, significantly higher than the previous year's 61.59% and above the industry average [3] - The gross profit margin was recorded at 11.37%, slightly up from 11.08% year-on-year, but still below the industry average of 24.94% [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 9.63% to 11,300, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder increased by 10.66% to 14,000 [5] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited held 11.3135 million shares, a decrease of 1.3328 million shares from the previous period [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts from Shenwan Hongyuan project that Milkyway's revenue will grow by 11.7% year-on-year, with net profit expected to increase by 7% in the first three quarters of 2025, despite pressure on Q3 profits [5] - Huayuan Securities notes that the integrated trade strategy is showing results, with total assets growing and distribution business expanding, anticipating an upward turning point in performance as the chemical cycle bottoms out [6]

Core Insights - Milkyway reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 11.7% for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating steady business expansion, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 7%, showing a slowdown in growth [1] - The company's Q3 2025 single-quarter net profit declined by 3.51% year-on-year, reflecting pressure on profits despite the overall positive trend [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the improving gross margins in its chemical logistics, warehousing, distribution, and sales businesses due to the reversal of the "involution" trend in the chemical industry [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue reached 10.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 525 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.04% [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025E-2027E is 672 million, 818 million, and 1.026 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 11, and 9 times [1] Strategic Outlook - The company continues to implement its overseas expansion strategy, which is expected to enhance its long-term development prospects [1] - The overall outlook remains positive, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the company's performance and growth potential [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 11.7% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit growth of 7%, indicating a slight slowdown in performance [5] - The company is expected to benefit from improvements in gross margins across its chemical logistics, warehousing, distribution, and sales businesses due to a favorable market environment [5] - The company continues to pursue an overseas expansion strategy, which is anticipated to enhance its long-term growth prospects [5] - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits of 672 million, 818 million, and 1,026 million for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 14, 11, and 9 [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 12,118 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.3% [4] - For 2025, total revenue is expected to reach 13,815 million, with a growth rate of 14.0% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 672 million in 2025, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year growth [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 4.25 yuan [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.4% in 2024 to 11.6% in 2025 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 11.2% in 2025 to 14.0% in 2026 [4]