Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent stock performance and financial metrics of Foster, indicating a positive trend in stock price and trading volume [1] - As of November 5, Foster's stock price increased by 2.01% to 16.24 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 42.366 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, Foster's stock has risen by 11.69%, with a 3.05% increase over the last five trading days and a 12.00% increase over the last 60 days [1] Group 2 - Foster's main business includes the research, production, and sales of solar cell encapsulants, polyamide hot-melt adhesive films, and solar cell backsheets, with solar cell encapsulants accounting for 90.65% of revenue [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Foster reported operating revenue of 11.788 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 22.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 688 million CNY, down 45.34% year-on-year [2] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 9.54% to 64,900, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 10.55% to 40,208 shares [2] Group 3 - Foster has distributed a total of 3.669 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.361 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3] - The top ten circulating shareholders as of September 30, 2025, include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the third-largest shareholder, holding 70.465 million shares, a decrease of 25.378 million shares from the previous period [3] - New shareholders include Huaxia Energy Innovation Stock A, which entered the top ten circulating shareholders list, holding 12.0046 million shares [3]

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 11 月 4 日 603806.SH 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 15.70 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 《福斯特》20250422 《福斯特》20241111 《福斯特》20240415 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电力设备：光伏设备 证券分析师：武佳雄 jiaxiong.wu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300523070001 证券分析师：顾真 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 8.9 0.0 7.3 (15.8) 相对上证综指 (12.3) (1.9) (3.4) (36.4) 发行股数 (百万) 2,608.74 流通股 (百万) 2,608.74 总市值 (人民币 百万) 40,957.20 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 507.97 主要股东 (32%) (21%) (10%) 1% 12% 23% Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 S ...

Core Insights - As of October 31, a total of 129 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have experienced net financing inflows for five consecutive days or more [1] - The stock with the longest consecutive net inflow is CITIC Bo, which has seen net buying for 14 trading days [1] - Other notable stocks with significant consecutive net inflows include Daimai Co., Weichuang Electric, Foster, Zhenhua Technology, Honghua Digital, Aosaikang, Dongcheng Pharmaceutical, and Huace Navigation [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 11.788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.32%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 688 million yuan, down 45.34% year-on-year [1]. - The price of EVA particles, a key raw material, has increased by approximately 16% since early August 2025, which is expected to improve the profitability of the company's film business in the fourth quarter of 2025 [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas production capacity for photovoltaic films to meet the high demand in emerging markets, aiming to stabilize its global market share [3]. - The electronic materials segment is experiencing rapid growth due to the recovery in consumer electronics and the acceleration of AI applications, positioning the company for a new growth cycle [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.682 billion yuan, 19.128 billion yuan, and 22.002 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of -12.9%, 14.7%, and 15.0% [4][5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.001 billion yuan in 2025, 1.624 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.260 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -23.5%, 62.3%, and 39.2% respectively [4][5]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 41X, 25X, and 18X, respectively [4][5].

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Photovoltaic Industry Industry Overview - The report focuses on the photovoltaic (PV) industry in China, tracking monthly supply and demand dynamics, inventory levels, and cash gross profit margins and EBITDA profit margin trends for covered companies [1][2]. Key Points Pricing and Valuation - As of October, the market pricing for 2026 is projected at RMB 58/kg for polysilicon, RMB 1.8/piece for wafers, RMB 0.66/W for modules, and RMB 13/m² for PV glass. The forecasted prices are significantly lower at RMB 42/kg, RMB 1.3/piece, RMB 0.67/W, and RMB 10/m² respectively [2][12]. - The average stock price of covered companies faces a potential downside risk of 34% based on current valuations [2]. Industry Dynamics - The industry is experiencing "anti-involution" measures, with new regulations stating that pricing cannot fall below production costs, which may only slightly improve the pricing outlook for polysilicon compared to the lows seen in June [2]. - Downstream companies are expected to reduce prices to expand market share amid weak demand, despite the need to cut costs [2]. Supply and Inventory Trends - As of October, polysilicon inventory increased by 7% month-over-month to 275 GW, with approximately 150 GW at polysilicon plants, 110 GW at wafer plants, and 15 GW in futures contracts [3]. - PV glass manufacturers saw a significant increase in inventory days, rising 63% to 25 days (equivalent to 40 GW) due to sluggish shipment volumes [3]. - Production cuts are progressing slowly, with a projected 6% decrease in monthly polysilicon output for November and December due to seasonal price peaks in the Midwest [3]. Export and Demand - Exports of battery cells and modules decreased by 10% and 4% month-over-month to 11 GW and 28 GW respectively, primarily due to the end of peak demand seasons in overseas markets [3]. - The global demand for modules in September decreased by 6% year-over-year to 43 GW, although cumulative demand for the first nine months of 2025 increased by 30% to 525 GW [14][19]. Profit Margins - The cash profit margins for upstream sectors remained stable, while downstream margins further declined [5][6]. - The cash gross profit margin for Tier 1 polysilicon is reported at 37%, while the margins for cells and modules are negative, indicating significant pressure on profitability [6]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the potential for further increases in silver prices, which could impact downstream pricing acceptance due to its significant share (30%-40%) of non-silicon processing costs [3]. - The anticipated increase in production capacity for PV glass may exacerbate inventory issues if demand does not recover [3]. Conclusion - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is currently facing challenges with pricing, inventory management, and profitability. The outlook remains cautious, with potential risks to investment returns highlighted by the significant downside in stock valuations and the need for strategic pricing adjustments in response to market conditions [2][3][5].

Core Viewpoint - Foster is a leading global enterprise in photovoltaic packaging materials, primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of solar cell encapsulation films and other related products, showcasing differentiated advantages in technology and scale [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Foster achieved a revenue of 11.788 billion yuan, ranking 3rd in the industry, surpassing the industry average of 4.392 billion yuan and the median of 2.26 billion yuan [2] - The main business composition includes photovoltaic encapsulation films at 7.215 billion yuan, accounting for 90.65% of total revenue, and photosensitive dry films at 325 million yuan, accounting for 4.08% [2] - The net profit for the same period was 668 million yuan, ranking 1st in the industry, exceeding the industry average of 51.964 million yuan and the median of 20.0225 million yuan [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Foster's debt-to-asset ratio was 19.74%, down from 23.52% year-on-year and significantly lower than the industry average of 49.56%, indicating strong solvency [3] - The gross profit margin for the same period was 11.09%, lower than the previous year's 15.56% but higher than the industry average of 6.43% [3] Group 3: Executive Compensation - Chairman Lin Jianhua's salary for 2024 is 753,600 yuan, a decrease of 145,800 yuan from 2023 [4] - General Manager Zhou Guangda's salary for 2024 is 785,700 yuan, down 66,200 yuan from 2023 [4] Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 9.54% to 64,900 [5] - The average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder increased by 10.55% to 40,200 [5] - Notable changes among the top ten circulating shareholders include a decrease in holdings by Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Guangfa High-end Manufacturing Stock A [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - According to Guojin Securities, Foster's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 11.788 billion yuan, with a net profit of 688 million yuan, highlighting competitive improvements in the photovoltaic encapsulation film market [5] - Pacific Securities noted that the overseas layout is showing results, with the second phase of the Thailand project contributing to increased overseas revenue [6] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 1.09 billion, 1.82 billion, and 2.65 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the photovoltaic sector [4]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant price recovery and profit restoration due to supply-side reforms, particularly in the polysilicon segment, which is crucial for the entire supply chain [4]. - A joint platform involving 17 major companies is expected to be established by the end of 2025, aimed at addressing supply-side issues and preventing disorderly expansion in the industry [4]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw notable profit recovery for companies like Daqo New Energy and GCL-Poly Energy, marking an end to a prolonged period of losses [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The photovoltaic sector is undergoing supply-side reforms with a focus on polysilicon, which is essential for controlling costs and profit distribution across the supply chain [4]. - The establishment of a joint platform is a key step in addressing the oversupply and price wars that have plagued the industry [4]. Market Performance - Following the announcement of the joint platform, the photovoltaic sector saw a significant stock price increase, with companies like LONGi Green Energy and Trina Solar reaching new highs [2][4]. - The price recovery in the polysilicon market has led to improved profitability for several companies, indicating a positive trend for the industry [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on polysilicon companies such as Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, and GCL-Poly Energy as key investment opportunities [4]. - Additionally, companies in the BC segment like Aiko Solar and LONGi Green Energy are highlighted for their potential independent market performance [4]. - As the supply-side reforms progress, attention is also drawn to auxiliary material companies like Foster and Xinyi Glass, which may benefit from the overall recovery in the sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report rates the photovoltaic industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [4]. Core Insights - The establishment of a joint platform involving 17 major companies is expected to accelerate supply-side reforms in the polysilicon sector, which is crucial for addressing the industry's overcapacity and price wars [4]. - The "anti-involution" initiative has led to significant price recovery and profit restoration across the industry, with companies like Daqo New Energy and GCL-Poly Energy reporting a return to profitability in Q3 2025 [4]. - The report suggests that the joint platform will be completed by the end of 2025, supported by top-level policies, industry self-discipline, and technological advancements, which will further stabilize prices and profits [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant shift with the formation of a joint platform aimed at addressing supply-side issues, particularly in polysilicon production [4]. - The industry has faced severe price competition leading to losses, but recent collaborative efforts are expected to restore profitability [4]. Company Analysis - Key companies to watch include: 1. Polysilicon leaders: Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, and GCL-Poly Energy [4]. 2. Companies with independent alpha performance: Aiko Solar and LONGi Green Energy [4]. 3. Companies in auxiliary materials: Foster and Xinyi Glass, which are expected to benefit from the overall recovery in the sector [4]. Financial Metrics - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, highlighting their market capitalization and projected net profits for 2025 and beyond [5]. - For instance, Tongwei Co. has a market cap of 112 billion yuan with a projected net profit of -5.23 billion yuan for 2025, while Daqo New Energy is projected to recover to a profit of 1.36 billion yuan in 2026 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant drop in Q3 performance compared to the previous year and quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.788 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 688 million, down 45% year-on-year [1] - In Q3, the company recorded revenue of 3.929 billion, a year-on-year decline of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12%, with a net profit of 192 million, down 42% year-on-year but up 103% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Operational Analysis - Q3 shipments slightly decreased, with fluctuations in raw material and film product prices impacting profitability; the company’s Q3 sales gross margin was 8.89%, down 2.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company’s market share in film products remained stable despite a 5% quarter-on-quarter decline in film shipments, totaling 722 million square meters in Q3 [2] - The competitive landscape in the photovoltaic film sector is improving, with the company maintaining profitability while other second and third-tier companies are reducing capacity or exiting the market [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is leading in overseas capacity expansion, with the second phase of its Thailand facility producing 250 million square meters of film, expected to enhance overseas shipments and solidify profitability [3] - The company is advancing technology research and development for new products, including XBC, HJT, thin-film batteries, and perovskite modules, aiming to improve profitability through differentiated products [3] - The company’s photoresist film business is entering a performance release phase, with Q3 sales reaching 50 million square meters, indicating a continuous growth trend [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 1.09 billion, 1.82 billion, and 2.65 billion, respectively, highlighting significant profitability advantages in film products and an improving competitive landscape [4] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to recover, driven by reduced internal competition, while the photoresist film and other electronic materials businesses are entering a high-growth phase [4]

Group 1 - Foster's board meeting was held on October 29, 2025, to review the Q3 2025 report and other documents [1] - For the first half of 2025, Foster's revenue composition was as follows: 92.85% from the photovoltaic industry, 4.86% from electronic materials, 0.89% from textiles, 0.71% from other businesses, and 0.39% from other industries [1] - As of the report date, Foster's market capitalization was 41.1 billion yuan [2]