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大家好,欢迎来到电话会议动物证券研究所提醒您本次电话会议仅面向机构投资者或受邀客户第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点 所有信息或所表述的意见均不构成对具体证券在具体价位具体时点具体市场表现的判断或投资建议未经合法授权严禁录音转发及相关解读涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留追究法律责任的权利感谢您给予的理解和配合谢谢 各位投资者大家周末愉快我是动物证券袁李感谢大家在周五的晚上还收听我们的电话会那我们的再动燃气系列呢今天是第四场聊一聊蓝天燃气因为在开篇的时候呢其实我跟国瑜老师就有把顺架的最新情况价格改革的情况呢给各位做分享那我们知道燃气板块它的一个核心逻辑呢其实就是 兼具价格改革带来的盈利能力的稳定回升和未来的可持续成长尤其是在现金资产的表现上面来讲我们认为当前在各个大类的公用板块中间的性价比也是非常高的如果说火电板块前期有演绎盈利能力在政策推动之下趋于稳定的逻辑的话我认为染气其实是可以复制 火电的这个逻辑的并且如果我们从成长性上面来看的话还能看到燃气比较优越的成长属性在清洁能源尤其是工商业这端渗透率极低的一个情况之下其实对标全球水平工商业这块的用气量的占比是有两到三倍以上的大幅的提升空间所以燃气我先重复一下就是对于整 ...

收盘价(元) 13.32 沪深 300 指数 3,640.36 流通市值(亿元) 33.07 每股净资产(元) 5.74 毛利率(%) 20.01 资产负债率(%) 38.70 环保及公用事业 分析师：陈拓 登记编码：S0730522100003 chentuo@ccnew.com 天然气业务稳健增长，维持高分红 证券研究报告-年报点评 增持(维持) 发布日期：2024 年 05 月 17 日 蓝天燃气发布 2023 年年报及 2024 年一季报，2023 年公司实现营业收 入 49.47 亿元，同比增长 4.06%；实现归母净利润 6.06 亿元，同比增 长 2.33%；加权平均净资产收益率 16.58%。2023 年第四季度公司实 现营业收入 13.97 亿元，同比增长 9.03%；实现归母净利润 1.06 亿元， 同比增长 1.92%。 2024 年第一季度公司实现营业收入 15.82 亿元，同比增长 8.46%；实 现归母净利润 2.03 亿元，同比增长 1.94%。 2024 年一季度，公司经营业绩延续了增长，但归母净利润增速低于营 业收入增速，主要由于公司营业收入同比增加 11.38%，高于营业收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark in the next six months [3][21]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit for Q1 2024, with revenue reaching 1.582 billion yuan, up 8.46% year-on-year, and net profit at 203 million yuan, up 1.94% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [2][3]. - The gradual implementation of natural gas pricing policies across various regions is expected to benefit the company, as residential price differences are anticipated to recover [11][21]. - The company has committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% from 2023 to 2025, with a 2023 payout ratio of 97.13%, reflecting a dividend yield of 6.3% [21]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 4.947 billion yuan in 2023, 5.146 billion yuan in 2024, 5.430 billion yuan in 2025, and 5.667 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.06%, 4.02%, 5.52%, and 4.38% respectively [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 606.31 million yuan in 2023, 654.05 million yuan in 2024, 689.40 million yuan in 2025, and 707.50 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 2.33%, 7.87%, 5.41%, and 2.63% [1]. - The report anticipates earnings per share (EPS) to be 0.88 yuan in 2023, 0.94 yuan in 2024, 1.00 yuan in 2025, and 1.02 yuan in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.33, 13.60, and 13.25 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][21].

2024 年第一季度报告 证券代码：605368 证券简称：蓝天燃气 河南蓝天燃气股份有限公司 2024 年第一季度报告 单位：元 币种：人民币 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 本报告期比上年同期增减 变动幅度(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 1,581,736,259.77 | 8.46 | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 | 202,678,791.66 | 1.94 | | 归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常 | 196,287,854.15 | -0.29 | | 性损益的净利润 | | | | 经营活动产生的现金流量净额 | 55,071,988.61 | -29.02 | | 基本每股收益（元/股） | 0.29 | 0.00 | 1 / 12 2024 年第一季度报告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示 公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证季度报告内容的真实、准确、完整，不存 在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 公司负责 ...

盈利预测与投资建议。预计 2024-2026 年公司归母净利润分别 6.6 亿元/6.9 亿 元/7.1亿元，对应 EPS 分别为 0.95元/0.99元/1.02元，首次覆盖给予"持有" 评级。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------|---------------------------------|--------|--------| | | | | | | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 4946.80 5225.39 5399.40 5510.14 | | | | 增长率 | 4.06% | 5.63% | 3.33% | 2.05% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | | 606.31 659.86 688.60 706.87 | | | | 增长率 | 2.37% | 8.83% | 4.35% | 2.65% | | 每股收益 EPS （元） | | 0.88 0.95 0.99 1.02 | | | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 15.66% | 15.59% | 15.00% | 14 ...

Company Overview - The company is a leading city gas operator in Henan Province, with a business layout covering the midstream and downstream of the gas industry chain [41][87] - The company has a robust midstream pipeline business, leveraging its extensive network of branch pipelines in Henan to sell natural gas to downstream distributors and industrial users [123][145] - The downstream city gas business operates under exclusive franchise rights, distributing natural gas to residential and industrial users in designated areas [128] - The company has a strong track record of revenue and profit growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.06% in total revenue and 15.33% in net profit attributable to the parent company from 2018 to 2023 [128] Financial Performance - The company's total revenue increased from 21.25 billion yuan in 2020 to 24.90 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 4.0% [26] - Net profit attributable to the parent company grew from 607 million yuan in 2023 to an estimated 725 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 5.4% [93] - The company's gross margin for pipeline natural gas business remained stable, ranging from 12.05% to 15.51% from 2020 to 2022 [26] - The company's free cash flow has been strong, with EBIT-adjusted free cash flow increasing from 3.33 billion yuan in 2018 to 6.33 billion yuan in 2023 [19] Industry Analysis - Henan Province has significant potential for natural gas demand growth due to its low urbanization rate and rapid urbanization progress [6][20] - The natural gas penetration rate in rural areas of Henan is much lower than in urban areas, indicating substantial growth potential as rural infrastructure improves [14][165] - The Henan Development and Reform Commission projects that natural gas demand in the province will increase to 200 billion cubic meters by 2025, up from 128 billion cubic meters in 2022 [7][116] - National policies strongly support the development of natural gas as a key bridge in China's energy transition, with targets set for urban gas penetration rates by 2025 [172] Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from its monopoly position in pipeline transportation, which provides strong bargaining power and cost control capabilities [11][123] - The company has diversified gas sources, including stable supplies from PetroChina, Sinopec, and low-cost coalbed methane from Shanxi, which enhances its cost competitiveness [43][179] - The company's strong cost control is reflected in its stable gross margins for midstream pipeline business, which increased from 0.16 yuan/cubic meter in 2020 to 0.45 yuan/cubic meter in 2022 despite rising upstream costs [9][124] - The company's asset turnover efficiency is high, with accounts receivable turnover and inventory turnover rates consistently outperforming industry averages [114] Future Outlook - The company has announced a generous dividend policy, committing to a dividend payout ratio of at least 70% for the next three years (2023-2025) [3][53] - The company's IPO and convertible bond projects are expected to bring additional growth, with most IPO projects already reaching their intended use and convertible bond projects set to be operational by 2024-2025 [62][75] - The company's downstream city gas business is expected to benefit from price adjustments in residential gas tariffs, with potential for further price increases in other cities following the lead of Xuchang City [45][104] - The company's profit is expected to be further boosted by the resumption of coalbed methane supply, with a potential profit increase of 0.55 billion yuan if 2.5 billion cubic meters of coalbed methane is supplied [44][181] Valuation and Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 51.64 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.39%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.73% [53][75] - The company's 2024 estimated PE ratio is 15x, with a target price of 14.40 yuan, based on its stable operations, high dividend policy, and strong performance in 2023 [75][92] - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its strong midstream cost control, potential profit growth from coalbed methane supply, and downstream business expansion [75][92]

| --- | --- | |--------------------------|--------| | | | | | | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ,LF) | 5.44 | | 资产负债率 (%,LF) | 41.94 | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 692.83 | | 流通 A 股 ( 百万股 ) | 248.28 | 《蓝天燃气(605368)：分红比例底线 提升至 70%，安全边际增强》 2023-11-17 2023-10-30 东吴证券研究所 1 / 6 公司发布2023年年度报告，2023年公司实现营业收入49.47亿元，同比增长4.06%； 归母净利润 6.06 亿元，同比增长 2.33%；扣非归母净利润 5.94 亿元，同比增长 1.59%； 加权平均 ROE 同比降低 1.67pct，至 16.58%。拟向全体股东每股派发现金股利 0.85 元 （含税），分红比例达 97.13%。 2023 年公司实现营业收入 49.47 亿元，同比增长 4.06%。公司归母净利润 6.06 亿 元，同比增长 2.33%，不及我们预期，主要系 2023 年国内天然气市场供给较 2022 年宽 松 ...

2023 年年度报告 公司代码：605368 公司简称：蓝天燃气 河南蓝天燃气股份有限公司 2023 年年度报告 1 / 211 2023 年年度报告 重要提示 一、 本公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证年度报告内容的真实性、准确性、 完整性，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 二、 公司全体董事出席董事会会议。 三、 中兴财光华会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）为本公司出具了标准无保留意见的审计报告。 四、 公司负责人黄涛、主管会计工作负责人赵永奎 及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）马昕声 明：保证年度报告中财务报告的真实、准确、完整。 五、 董事会决议通过的本报告期利润分配预案或公积金转增股本预案 经公司第六届董事会第二次会议审议通过，公司董事会拟以 2023 年度权益分派实施时的股权登 记日登记的总股本为基数，向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 8.5 元（含税）,剩余未分配利润暂 不分配，结转下一年度。 六、 前瞻性陈述的风险声明 √适用 □不适用 本年度报告涉及未来计划、发展战略等前瞻性陈述，不构成公司对投资者实际承诺，敬请投资者 注意投资风险。 七、 是否存在 ...

本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 红利标杆 公司发布 2023 年年度报告，业绩稳健增长。全年公司实现营业收入 49.47 亿元，同比增长 4.06%；实现归母净利润 6.06 亿元，同比增长 2.33%；加权平均净资产收益率达到 16.58%。 公司始终致力于为所有股东创造价值，具有高分红传统，2020- 2022 财年，公司现金分红比例分别为 69.51%、54.97%、83.55%。 据 2023 年年报披露，此次公司拟每 10 股派发现金红利 8.5 元（含 税），以截至 2024 年 3 月 24 日公司总股本 6.93 亿股计算，公司 2024 年拟派发现金红利总额为 5.89 亿元，分红比例高达 97.13%， 按照 2024 年 3 月 25 日收盘价计算，公司股息率达到 6.2%。2023 年 11 月，公司发布未来三年股东分红回报规划，明确 2023-2025 年每年现金分红比例不低于净利润的 70%。主业稳健叠加高分红， 公司投资价值凸显。 公司拥有河南省内稀缺的天然气长输管网资产，近年来积极从中 游向下游城市燃气业务延伸，逐步形成"长输管网+城燃"中下游 一体化布局 ...