中信证券股份有限公司 关于长春百克生物科技股份公司 2024 年度持续督导跟踪报告 中信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"中信证券"或"保荐机构"）作为长 春百克生物科技股份公司（以下简称"百克生物"或"公司"）首次公开发行 并在科创板上市的持续督导保荐机构，根据《证券发行上市保荐业务管理办法》 《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第11号——持续督导》及《上市公司 监管指引第2号——上市公司募集资金管理和使用的监管要求》等相关规定，负 责百克生物上市后的持续督导工作，并出具本持续督导年度跟踪报告。 | 序 | 工作内容 | 实施情况 | | --- | --- | --- | | 号 | | | | 1 | 建立健全并有效执行持续督导工作制度，并针对具体的 | 保荐机构已建立健全并有效 | | | 持续督导工作制定相应的工作计划 | 执行了持续督导制度，并制 | | | | 定了相应的工作计划 | | | 根据中国证监会相关规定，在持续督导工作开始前，与 | 保荐机构已与百克生物签订 保荐协议，该协议明确了双 | | 2 | 上市公司签署持续督导协议，明确双方在持续督导期间 | 方在持续督导期间的权利和 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of several vaccine companies in China is significantly declining in 2024 due to industry policy adjustments, decreased public willingness to vaccinate, and changing market demands, leading to a challenging environment for the industry [1] Financial Performance - The average revenue of vaccine companies in 2024 is 7.131 billion yuan, down 21.63% from 9.099 billion yuan in 2023, while the average net profit is 788 million yuan, a decrease of 35.60% from 1.222 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - Companies like Zhifei Biological, Wantai Biological, and Hualan Biological reported revenue declines exceeding 50%, while Watson Biological, Baike Biological, and Jindike saw declines of over 30% [1] - Kangxino's revenue increased by over 130% due to its quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine, benefiting from the resolution of global public health events [1] Price Competition Impact - The price war among vaccine products, particularly HPV, influenza, and pneumonia vaccines, has severely impacted net profits, with Wantai Biological, Kangtai Biological, Hualan Biological, and Zhifei Biological experiencing declines of 91.49%, 76.59%, 76.10%, and 74.99% respectively [2] - Wantai Biological's revenue for 2024 is 2.245 billion yuan, down 59.25%, and its net profit is 106 million yuan, down 91.49% [6] - Watson Biological's revenue is 2.821 billion yuan, a decline of 31.41%, with a net profit of 142 million yuan, down 66.10% [6] Market Dynamics - The domestic vaccine market is becoming increasingly competitive, with many companies focusing on traditional products and facing challenges from product homogeneity and market saturation [3] - The overall vaccination rate in China is low, with only about 3% for influenza vaccines, indicating significant growth potential in the market despite current pressures [7] R&D and Innovation - Companies are increasing R&D investments, with Zhifei Biological investing 1.391 billion yuan in 2024, and several companies allocating over 20% of their revenue to R&D [8] - New vaccine technologies, including mRNA and DNA vaccines, are emerging, which could lead to breakthroughs in disease prevention and treatment [9] International Expansion - Many vaccine companies are pursuing international markets, with Kangxino and Baike Biological successfully exporting products to various countries [10][11] - Watson Biological reported overseas revenue of 570 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 98% [11] - The global human vaccine market is projected to grow significantly, with emerging markets providing opportunities for Chinese vaccine companies due to their competitive pricing [12][13]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to reduced sales of the shingles vaccine [1] - The nasal spray flu vaccine showed strong performance, while the shingles vaccine faced short-term sales pressure [1][2] - The company is actively advancing its R&D pipeline with multiple products achieving key milestones [2] - Profitability has decreased, with overall gross margin and net margin declining compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 32.6%, and a net profit of 230 million yuan, down 53.7% [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 160 million yuan, a decline of 40.0%, with a net profit of 1 million yuan, down 98.2% [1] - The shingles vaccine generated revenue of 250 million yuan, a decrease of 71.5%, while the chickenpox vaccine revenue was 840 million yuan, an increase of 2.2% [1] - The nasal spray flu vaccine revenue reached 140 million yuan, an increase of 15.4% [1] - Overall gross margin for 2024 was 85.4%, down 4.8 percentage points, and net margin was 18.9%, down 8.6 percentage points [1] R&D Progress - The company invested 160 million yuan in R&D in 2024, accounting for 12.7% of revenue [2] - Key advancements include the acceptance of the liquid nasal spray flu vaccine application, completion of Phase I clinical trials for rabies monoclonal antibody, and initiation of Phase I/II clinical trials for tetanus monoclonal antibody [2] - Clinical trial approvals were obtained for HSV-2 mRNA vaccine and Hib vaccine, while the recombinant shingles vaccine and adjuvanted flu vaccine have submitted IND applications [2] Earnings Forecast - The company projects EPS of 0.6 yuan, 0.68 yuan, and 0.75 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant decline in performance of Baike Biotech, with a sharp drop in revenue and net profit due to the poor sales of its key product, the shingles vaccine [1][2]. Financial Performance - Baike Biotech reported a 32.64% decrease in revenue and a 53.67% drop in net profit for 2024, with a staggering 98.24% decline in net profit for Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [1]. - The shingles vaccine sales plummeted by 69.8% in 2024, leading to an 80% increase in inventory and a revenue contribution of only 251 million yuan, down from its previous strong performance [1]. Market Dynamics - The shingles vaccine, priced at 1,369 yuan per dose, was expected to disrupt the market dominated by GSK's two-dose vaccine priced at 3,200 yuan, but the anticipated market response has not materialized [2]. - The pediatric vaccine segment, which constitutes 68% of Baike's revenue, is facing structural challenges due to a decline in newborn numbers and intense competition from 11 other manufacturers [3]. Competitive Landscape - The adult vaccine market is experiencing fierce price competition, particularly in categories like HPV and influenza, which is putting pressure on Baike's growth prospects [3]. - The domestic shingles vaccine market is becoming increasingly competitive, with over ten companies, including Watson Bio and Wantai Bio, developing products, indicating a potential repeat of the intense competition seen in the HPV vaccine market [4]. Strategic Initiatives - In response to these challenges, Baike Biotech is accelerating its investment in innovative pipelines, including Alzheimer's therapeutic vaccines and mRNA technology, with R&D expenditure expected to rise to 12.7% of revenue in 2024 [3]. - The company is also advancing the development of a recombinant protein vaccine to address diverse population needs, which is critical for its recovery strategy [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 23.53 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 20.83 CNY [5][8]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in sales of the shingles vaccine, a decrease in gross margin, and an increase in expense ratios. In 2024, total revenue was 1.229 billion CNY, down 32.64% year-on-year, and net profit was 232 million CNY, down 53.67% year-on-year [1][2]. - The sales revenue for the chickenpox vaccine and nasal spray flu vaccine showed stable growth, with revenues of 837 million CNY (up 2.16% year-on-year) and 141 million CNY (up 15.37% year-on-year), respectively. However, the shingles vaccine sales dropped significantly to 251 million CNY, down 71.54% year-on-year [2]. - The company is advancing its vaccine pipeline, with several projects expected to enhance performance, including the approval of a liquid nasal spray flu vaccine, which is anticipated to contribute positively to future earnings [3][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the overall gross margin was 85.42%, down 4.81 percentage points, and the expense ratio was 60.23%, up 5.84 percentage points. For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 85.27%, down 4.45 percentage points, while the expense ratio surged to 87.12%, up 20.28 percentage points [1]. - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 10.2%, 13.3%, and 11.7% for 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 4.9%, 16.7%, and 14.4% for the same period [8][10]. Vaccine Sales - The company has successfully expanded its international market presence, exporting the shingles vaccine to Colombia and the chickenpox vaccine to Afghanistan, with products now available in over 10 countries [2]. - The company is focusing on multiple vaccine development projects, including the whooping cough vaccine and rabies monoclonal antibody, which are expected to enter clinical trials in 2025 [3]. Market Position - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 8.616 billion CNY, with a circulating market capitalization of the same amount. The total share capital is 413.66 million shares [5].

Group 1: Baike Biotechnology - Baike Biotechnology's performance in Q1 2024 and Q1 2025 is expected to decline significantly, with decreases of 32.64% and 39.96% respectively, primarily due to the impact on shingles vaccine sales [1] - The company plans to enhance market awareness of the shingles vaccine, maintain its position in the chickenpox vaccine market, and expand into international markets [1] - Several R&D projects have made progress, including liquid nasal spray flu vaccines and rabies monoclonal antibodies, with an anticipated increase in R&D and sales expense ratios in 2025, followed by a gradual decrease [1] Group 2: Qinchuan Machine Tool - Qinchuan Machine Tool's operating performance in 2024 shows a significant increase in high-tech product exports, with machine tool export revenue growing by 35% year-on-year, covering regions such as Europe, South America, East Asia, and Africa [2] - The company has developed manufacturing capabilities for components suitable for humanoid robots and has initiated extensive R&D efforts, leveraging 60 years of technological advantage [2] - Qinchuan's industrial robot joint reducers feature five major series, over 40 specifications, and 140 different speed ratios, with an annual production capacity of 60,000 to 90,000 sets, serving clients like Guoshu Turing and Estun [2] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the company will focus on its core machine tool business, promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development to enhance core competitiveness and aims to become a global leader in machine tool manufacturing and precision transmission solutions [2] - Walker Gear, in the new energy sector, emphasizes high-precision gears with advantages in mature processes, low costs, and good after-sales quality [2] - Qinchuan's five-axis machining center products have four major series and over 20 models, with comprehensive performance indicators leading domestically and significantly increased market penetration [2]

Group 1: Ganyuan Food - Ganyuan Food plans to conduct in-depth research in the Southeast Asian market starting in Q4 2024, with an accelerated product export strategy in 2025 [1] - The company is addressing raw material fluctuations through advance reserves, supply chain alternatives, and increasing direct procurement [1] - The growth in accounts receivable is primarily due to the staggered impact of the Spring Festival, leading to increased receivables during peak sales periods [1] - The growth of mixed nuts and bean snacks is attributed to bulk snack channels and overseas markets [1] - A significant promotional effort in Q1 2024 resulted in lower e-commerce gross margins, but gross margins are expected to rise year-on-year in Q1 2025 [1] - Sales expenses in Q1 2025 are expected to increase due to the initiation of the Southeast Asia export strategy, including market research, product design, sales personnel costs, and new celebrity endorsement fees [1] Group 2: Lepu Medical - Lepu Medical is optimistic about future profit growth from structural heart, dermatology, and neuro-regulation businesses [2] - The company has set profit margin assessments for each business segment and is controlling costs to maintain healthy cash flow [2] - The trend of centralized procurement may moderate, with significant regional differences across provinces [2] - The impact of US-China tariffs on the company is limited, and the domestic substitution process for some products may accelerate [2] - The promotion of new cardiovascular interventional products is progressing smoothly, with a sales target for coronary interventional business set for a 10% year-on-year increase [2] - The non-invasive blood glucose meter is undergoing further testing, and the candidate drug MWN101 has completed Phase II clinical trials [2] - The brain-computer interface business is in the incubation stage, and the market share of coronary stents has not met expectations, prompting increased focus on this area [2] - The AI business will increasingly integrate with hardware devices, and opportunities exist for DSA product promotion amid US-China trade tensions [2] - The company is placing greater emphasis on the neuro-regulation pipeline due to competition in the cardiac electrophysiology sector [2] - The TAVR product aims to enhance its popularity through reasonable pricing [2] Group 3: Baike Biotech - Baike Biotech experienced significant declines in performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with decreases of 32.64% and 39.96% respectively, primarily due to the impact on shingles vaccine sales [3] - The company plans to enhance market awareness of the shingles vaccine through various methods while maintaining its position in the chickenpox vaccine market and expanding into international markets [3] - In terms of R&D, multiple projects have made progress, including liquid nasal spray flu vaccines and rabies monoclonal antibodies [3] - The company anticipates an increase in R&D investment and sales expense ratios in 2025, followed by a gradual decline [3]

Group 1: Guobo Electronics - Guobo Electronics has improved its gross margin through cost control and product structure adjustments, despite revenue fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors [1] - The company reported a normal increase in inventory as part of production reserves, with stable prices for mainstream products and good capacity utilization [1] - Guobo is actively participating in key projects and is expanding into satellite and low-altitude fields, with RF chips already applied in drone products to meet the demands of next-generation mobile communication technologies [1] Group 2: Lege Co., Ltd. - In 2024, Lege Co., Ltd. faced a challenging environment with a revenue growth of 45.33% but a net profit decline of 46.99%, primarily due to reduced non-recurring income and increased R&D investment [2] - The company has expanded its overseas warehouse operations to 662,100 square meters, serving 1,175 enterprises and shipping over 11 million items, with a capacity utilization rate of 60%-70% [2] - Lege plans to maintain steady progress in 2025, focusing on smart home and overseas warehouse dual main businesses while enhancing brand building and talent optimization [2] Group 3: Baike Biotech - Baike Biotech experienced significant declines in performance in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, with decreases of 32.64% and 39.96% respectively, mainly due to the impact on shingles vaccine sales [3] - The company aims to enhance market awareness of the shingles vaccine and solidify its position in the chickenpox vaccine market while expanding into international markets [3] - Baike anticipates an increase in R&D investment and sales expense ratios in 2025, followed by a gradual decrease [3] Group 4: Mona Lisa - Mona Lisa is facing multiple challenges in 2024 due to changes in trade environments and real estate adjustments, leading to a 16.34% decline in sales volume and revenue [4] - The company has seen a 20.72% decrease in operating costs, primarily due to lower direct material and fuel costs, and has implemented cost reduction and efficiency measures [4] - Looking ahead to 2025, the industry faces challenges from weakened demand, but urbanization and stock housing renovations present new opportunities [4]

Core Insights - The core issue for the company is the significant decline in sales of the shingles vaccine, which has led to a substantial drop in overall performance for 2024 and Q1 2025 [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 1.229 billion yuan and 232 million yuan, representing declines of 32.64% and 53.67% respectively [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 162 million yuan and 1.0643 million yuan, with declines of 39.96% and 98.24% respectively [1] Vaccine Sales Analysis - The shingles vaccine generated revenue of 251 million yuan in 2024, a significant drop of 71.54% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 96.08% [2] - Production of the shingles vaccine was 898,600 doses, but only 200,400 doses were sold, leading to a 79.97% increase in inventory [2] - The decline in sales is attributed to low public awareness of the disease and vaccine, resulting in decreased market demand [2] Market Challenges - The company faces challenges from declining birth rates, price adjustments of similar products, and increased competition from new market entrants [3] - Despite slight revenue increases from chickenpox and nasal flu vaccines, the overall market capacity is shrinking due to lower birth rates [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to expand its adult vaccine market and is investing in R&D for new products, including Alzheimer's therapeutic vaccines and other vaccines [3] - In 2024, R&D investment was 156 million yuan, accounting for 12.7% of revenue [3] Market Potential - The domestic shingles vaccine market is currently characterized by limited competition, with only GSK's Shingrix and the company's shingles vaccine approved for sale [4][5] - The market penetration for shingles vaccines among individuals over 50 is low, indicating significant growth potential as public awareness increases [6][7]