2025年中国带状疱疹疫苗行业洞察报告：免 疫需求扩容 + 政策红利加持背景下，百克生 物率先获批，国产疫苗如何承接市场？ Expanding immunization demand and supportive policy tailwinds, how can local vaccines capture the market opportunity in 2025? 2025年において、免疫需要の拡大と政策面の追い風を背景に、国 産ワクチンはどのように市場機会を取り込めるのか 报告标签：带状疱疹疫苗、减毒活病毒疫苗、重组亚单位疫苗，mRNA病毒疫苗，自复制 RNA疫苗 主笔人：梁坤媛 研究报告 2025/12 报告提供的任何内容（包括但不限于数据、文字、图表、图像等）均系头豹研究院独有的高度机密性 文件（在报告中另行标明出处者除外）。 ，任何人不得以任何方式擅自 复制、再造、传播、出版、引用、改编、汇编本报告内容，若有违反上述约定的行为发生，头豹研究 院保留采取法律措施、追究相关人员责任的权利。头豹研究院开展的所有商业活动均使用"头豹研究院 "或"头豹"的商号、商标，头豹研究院无任何前述名称之外的其他分 ...

Group 1 - The company plans to advance the Phase III clinical trial of its liquid nasal spray influenza vaccine for the age group of 18-59 in 2026 [1] - The company aims to accelerate the development of its HSV-2 mRNA vaccine to strengthen its mRNA technology platform [1]

Core Viewpoint - Changchun High-tech, a leading company in the growth hormone industry, is experiencing a significant decline in net profit, with a forecasted drop of 91.48% to 94.19% for 2025 compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, Changchun High-tech reported a revenue of 9.807 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.165 billion yuan, down 58.23% year-on-year [1] - The peak net profit for Changchun High-tech was 4.532 billion yuan in 2023, but it fell by 43% in 2024, indicating a continuing downward trend into 2025 [1] - The company anticipates a net profit of 150 million to 200 million yuan for 2025, marking a substantial decline from previous years [1] Group 2: Market and Product Dynamics - The sales of growth hormones are influenced by the number of adolescents and newborns, with increased competition also impacting performance [2] - Changchun High-tech's long-acting growth hormone and related products have been included in the new national medical insurance directory, effective January 1, 2026, with a price reduction of approximately 75% [2] - The company has adjusted its sales policies and pricing in response to industry policy changes and market conditions, which has contributed to reduced revenue and net profit [2] Group 3: Subsidiary Performance - Changchun High-tech's subsidiary, Baike Biological, is expected to report a net loss of 220 million to 280 million yuan for 2025, marking its first loss since going public, primarily due to intensified competition and decreased vaccination willingness [3] - The sales revenue of the shingles vaccine from Baike Biological has already seen a decline of 71.54% in 2024, continuing to be negatively affected in 2025 [4] - Factors affecting the shingles vaccine sales include public awareness of the disease, vaccination willingness, and increased market competition, leading to unsold inventory and returns [4]

Core Viewpoint - The performance forecasts for A-share vaccine companies in 2025 reveal significant industry adjustments, with major players like Zhifei Biological, Wantai Biological, and Baike Biological reporting losses, while companies like CanSino and Watson Biologics achieve growth through innovative products and overseas market expansion [1][2]. Industry Overview - The vaccine industry is facing multiple pressures, including price wars, shrinking demand, and product homogenization, which are forcing companies to shift from channel-driven to innovation-driven strategies [1][4]. - The overall profitability of the industry has sharply declined, with Zhifei Biological expecting its first annual loss since its listing, projecting a net loss of 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 630% to 780% [1][2]. Company Performance - Zhifei Biological, Wantai Biological, and Baike Biological have all transitioned from profit to loss due to various factors, including price cuts and inventory issues [1][2]. - CanSino has turned a profit in 2025, with a projected net profit of 24.5 million to 29 million yuan, benefiting from the strong sales of its four-valent meningococcal vaccine, which accounts for 90% of its revenue [2][6]. - Watson Biologics has seen a 35% year-on-year increase in overseas vaccine exports, achieving a net profit of 16 million to 19 million yuan, reflecting its ability to counter domestic declines [2][7]. Market Dynamics - The ongoing price war is compressing profit margins, with significant price drops observed in various vaccine categories, such as the HPV vaccine and flu vaccine, leading to reduced gross margins for companies [4][8]. - Demand for vaccines is declining due to a falling birth rate and low vaccination rates among adults, exacerbating the industry's growth challenges [4][5]. Strategic Shifts - Companies are increasingly focusing on innovation and overseas expansion as key strategies to navigate the current market challenges [5][9]. - The inclusion of the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program is expected to stabilize market demand but will also pressure companies to reduce costs and innovate further [8][9]. Future Outlook - 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for the vaccine industry in China, with a shift towards high-quality development and a focus on core competencies and innovation [9]. - The industry is expected to gradually recover as innovative products are launched, overseas markets are expanded, and public awareness of vaccination increases [9].

Core Insights - The performance forecasts for A-share vaccine companies in 2025 reveal significant industry adjustments, with major players like Zhifei Biological, Wantai Biological, and Baike Biological reporting losses, while companies like CanSino and Watson Biologics achieve growth through innovative products and overseas market expansion [1][2][5] Industry Overview - The vaccine industry is facing multiple pressures, including price wars and shrinking demand, leading to a significant contraction in profitability [5][6] - The continuous price competition has compressed profit margins, with HPV vaccines and flu vaccines reaching historical lows in pricing, impacting overall industry profitability [5][6] - The decline in birth rates has reduced the core vaccination population for children's vaccines, while adult vaccine uptake remains low due to vaccine hesitancy [5][6] Company Performance - Zhifei Biological is expected to report its first annual loss since its listing, with a projected net loss of 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 630% to 780% [1] - Wantai Biological and Baike Biological also shift from profit to loss, with projected net losses of 330 million to 410 million yuan and 220 million to 280 million yuan, respectively [1] - CanSino is projected to turn a profit with a net income of 24.5 million to 29 million yuan, benefiting from the strong sales of its quadrivalent meningococcal vaccine [2] - Watson Biologics expects a net profit of 160 million to 190 million yuan, driven by a 35% increase in overseas vaccine exports [2] Market Dynamics - The industry is experiencing severe product homogeneity, leading to intensified competition among companies in popular vaccine segments like HPV and shingles [6] - Companies overly reliant on agency models are facing challenges, as seen with Zhifei Biological, which has a high dependency on agency products [6] - Inventory and cash flow pressures are evident, with companies like Zhifei Biological and Wantai Biological facing significant inventory write-downs [6] Innovation and Opportunities - Companies with unique innovative products are achieving performance rebounds, with CanSino's quadrivalent vaccine capturing over 90% market share [7] - The overseas market is becoming a crucial growth point, with Watson Biologics exporting to 24 countries and CanSino's inhaled vaccine gaining market share in Southeast Asia and Latin America [8] - The inclusion of the bivalent HPV vaccine in the national immunization program is expected to stabilize market demand while also compressing profit margins for companies [9] Future Outlook - 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for the vaccine industry to transition towards high-quality development, with a focus on innovation and overseas market expansion [10] - The industry is expected to gradually emerge from the adjustment period as innovative products are launched and vaccination awareness increases among residents [10] - The China Vaccine Industry Association has initiated measures to curb irrational price competition, aiming for a more rational pricing environment in the future [10]

Market Overview - The biopharmaceutical sector increased by 1.27% on February 3, with Wanzhe Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] Stock Performance - Wanzhe Co., Ltd. (000534) closed at 30.65, with a rise of 10.01% and a trading volume of 313,500 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 921 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included ST Weiming (002581) with a 5.01% increase, closing at 7.55, and Nearshore Protein (688137) with a 4.84% increase, closing at 44.20 [1] Capital Flow - The biopharmaceutical sector experienced a net outflow of 255 million yuan from institutional investors and 153 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 408 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks showed that Wanzhe Co., Ltd. had a net outflow of 50.83 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 15.59 million yuan [3] Individual Stock Analysis - Eurolin Biotech (688319) had a net inflow of 21.61 million yuan from institutional investors, while ST Weiming (002581) saw a significant net inflow of 13.51 million yuan [3] - Conversely, major outflows were noted in Wanzhe Co., Ltd. and other stocks, indicating varied investor sentiment across the sector [3]

1月29日，百克生物跌0.73%，成交额6441.15万元。两融数据显示，当日百克生物获融资买入额669.49 万元，融资偿还1143.39万元，融资净买入-473.91万元。截至1月29日，百克生物融资融券余额合计2.10 亿元。 融资方面，百克生物当日融资买入669.49万元。当前融资余额2.09亿元，占流通市值的2.49%，融资余 额低于近一年10%分位水平，处于低位。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 截至9月30日，百克生物股东户数1.08万，较上期增加7.23%；人均流通股38216股，较上期减少6.74%。 2025年1月-9月，百克生物实现营业收入4.74亿元，同比减少53.76%；归母净利润-1.58亿元，同比减少 164.76%。 分红方面，百克生物A股上市后累计派现2.35亿元。近三年，累计派现1.94亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，百克生物十大流通股东中，南方中 ...

Group 1 - The Nipah virus outbreak in West Bengal, India has led to confirmed cases and significant market reactions, particularly in vaccine and diagnostic sectors, with several stocks experiencing price surges [1][2] - The Nipah virus, first identified in 1998, has a high fatality rate exceeding 40% and lacks effective treatments, which raises public health concerns and market volatility [2][3] - Despite initial market enthusiasm, the lack of confirmed cases in China and the limited geographical impact of the outbreak have resulted in a significant stock price correction for related companies [1][4] Group 2 - Companies like Capbio, Zhijiang Bio, and others have developed Nipah virus testing products, but the overall demand for testing has not increased significantly due to the outbreak, leading to continued financial pressure on these firms [4][10] - The medical testing industry, previously buoyed by COVID-19 testing, is now facing declining revenues as demand decreases, with many companies reporting substantial losses [9][10] - The vaccine sector is also under pressure, with companies like Zhifei and Watson facing intense competition and declining sales, leading to significant financial challenges [15][20] Group 3 - The overall performance of companies in the vaccine and diagnostic sectors is expected to remain under pressure due to economic cycles, increased competition, and regulatory changes affecting pricing and profitability [12][20] - The Nipah virus outbreak has not translated into increased orders for testing products from domestic companies, indicating a lack of substantial market opportunity arising from the situation [12][22] - Investors are advised to be cautious, as the Nipah virus may not provide the expected boost to the performance of the medical testing and vaccine industries, which are already struggling with profitability [22]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market saw a significant rise in vaccine stocks, driven by the outbreak of the Nipah virus in West Bengal, India, which has a high mortality rate and no available vaccine [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Hualan Vaccine and Jindike both reached the daily limit of 20% increase, while Zhifei Biological rose over 15%, Kangle Health over 13%, and CanSino over 12% [1]. - Other notable increases included Watson Bio with a rise of over 10%, Kangtai Bio by nearly 7%, and Wantai Bio by almost 6% [1]. - The total market capitalization for Hualan Vaccine is 14 billion, Jindike is 3.11 billion, and Zhifei Biological is 47.7 billion [2]. Group 2: Year-to-Date Performance - Year-to-date, Hualan Vaccine has increased by 25.28%, Jindike by 24.96%, and Kangle Health by 36.15% [2]. - Zhifei Biological has a year-to-date increase of 5.67%, while Watson Bio has risen by 32.24% [2]. - Kangtai Bio's year-to-date increase stands at 16.59%, and Wantai Bio at 4.47% [2]. Group 3: Industry Context - The Nipah virus outbreak has prompted the Thai Civil Aviation Authority to implement comprehensive screening for flights from West Bengal to prevent the virus from entering Thailand [1]. - Jindike has acknowledged awareness of the Nipah virus news but stated that the company does not have related products [1].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market saw a significant rise in vaccine stocks due to the outbreak of the Nipah virus in West Bengal, India, which has a high mortality rate and no available vaccine [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Vaccine stocks such as Hualan Biological, Gendik, and Zhifei Biological experienced substantial gains, with Gendik hitting the 20% limit up, Zhifei Biological rising over 15%, and Kangle Health increasing by over 13% [1] - Other notable increases included CanSino Biologics up by over 12%, Watson Biotech by over 10%, and Kangtai Biological by over 7% [1] Group 2: Company Specifics - Gendik acknowledged awareness of the Nipah virus news but stated that the company does not have related products [1] - The total market capitalization of leading vaccine companies includes Zhifei Biological at 477 billion, Watson Biotech at 230 billion, and CanSino Biologics at 192 billion [2]