电子行业 超配 （维持） MLCC 行业深度报告 深 度 供需矛盾加剧，高阶 MLCC 价格有望上扬 2026 年 3 月 25 日 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 相关报告 投资要点： 罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn 风险提示：AI需求不及预期；技术推进不及预期；行业竞争加剧。 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 SAC 执业证书编号： 电子行业指数走势 MLCC下游应用领域广泛，国产替代空间巨大。MLCC具有温度范围宽、电 容范围宽、介质损耗小、体积小、价格低等特点，广泛应用于移动终端、 高端装备、汽车、计算机、通信、家电等多个领域，目前朝向小型化、 高容化趋势发展。从全球竞争格局来看，第一梯队以日本、韩国厂商为 主，具备深厚的技术、产品、客户积累，以小尺寸、高容、高压的高附 加值产品为主，聚焦于汽车、高端智能手机、AI服务器等领域；第二、 第三梯队分别以中国台湾和中国大陆厂商为主，大陆厂商技术水 ...

电子行业 超配 （维持） MLCC 行业深度报告 深 度 供需矛盾加剧，高阶 MLCC 价格有望上扬 2026 年 3 月 25 日 罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 相关报告 投资要点： | | 供需矛盾加剧，高阶 | MLCC | 价格有望上扬 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 2. | | | | | | | MLCC | 下游应用领域广泛，国产替代空间巨大 | | 4 11 | | 图 | 1 | ：被动元件分类 | | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2 | ：被动元件下游应用占比 | | 4 | | 图 | 3 | ：被动元件产品结构 | | 5 | | 图 | 4 | ：陶瓷电容产品结构 | | 6 | | 图 | 5 | ：MLCC 结构 | | 6 | | 图 | 6 | ：MLCC 下游应用 | | 6 | | 图 | 7 | ：村田推出 006003 | 尺寸 M ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Views - The energy storage lithium battery sector is experiencing an upward trend, while Europe and North America continue to face electricity shortages [1] - The report highlights the strong demand for energy storage and the ongoing positive outlook for the industry, driven by various government policies and market dynamics [3][7] Industry Trends - The report notes significant price increases in various segments, including lithium carbonate and battery materials, indicating a robust market environment [3] - The energy storage capacity in the U.S. is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of 51% year-on-year growth in 2026 [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of new energy policies in various regions, including the U.S. and Europe, which are expected to further stimulate demand for energy storage solutions [3][19] Company Performance - Notable companies such as CATL and Tianqi Lithium are highlighted for their strong financial performance, with CATL's net profit expected to reach 72.2 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.3% [3] - The report mentions several companies with significant growth potential, including Ningde Times, Sunshine Power, and others, which are positioned well in the energy storage and lithium battery markets [3][6] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on leading companies in the energy storage and lithium battery sectors, recommending investments in firms like CATL, Yihua Lithium Energy, and others due to their strong growth prospects and market positions [3][6] - The report also indicates a favorable outlook for companies involved in the development of solid-state batteries and advanced energy storage technologies [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Views - The energy storage lithium battery sector is experiencing an upward trend, while Europe and North America continue to face electricity shortages [1] - The report highlights the strong demand for energy storage and the ongoing positive outlook for the sector, driven by various national policies and market dynamics [3][7] Industry Trends - Energy Storage: The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the development of new energy storage and flexible power sources. In Germany, the EEG 2027 draft proposes to stop fixed feed-in tariffs for small photovoltaic installations [3] - Electric Vehicles: In February, electric vehicle sales in China reached 765,000 units, with exports increasing by 115% year-on-year. The domestic battery production was 142 GWh, showing a 41% year-on-year increase [3] - Market Prices: Lithium carbonate prices remain high, with battery prices adjusting accordingly. The report notes a significant increase in the prices of various battery materials [3] Company Performance - CATL reported a net profit of 72.2 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.3% [3] - Tianqi Lithium's performance is expected to improve significantly, with a projected increase in net profit due to rising lithium prices [3] - Other companies like Ganfeng Lithium and BYD are also highlighted for their strong growth potential in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [3][4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a strong push for energy storage, with expectations of over 60% growth in global installations in 2026. It emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the energy storage and lithium battery sectors [3][4] - Key investment recommendations include CATL, Sungrow Power, and other leading firms in the energy storage and electric vehicle supply chains [3][4]

Group 1: Market Development and Product Innovation - The company has prioritized "emerging market development" as a key annual initiative, focusing on accelerating new product research and development, including high-performance products like alloy resistors and multi-layer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) [2][3] - The company has a comprehensive industry layout, integrating materials, products, and equipment, enabling it to respond promptly to customer needs and provide one-stop procurement services for electronic components [3] Group 2: Product Applications and Features - New products are designed to meet higher demands in emerging application areas, including IM and AE series MLCCs for high stability and efficiency in medium to high voltage environments, and MF and MI series alloy resistors for high power and precision applications [3] - The TLVR inductors utilize advanced materials and hot-pressing technology, offering high current capacity, compact size, and low DC resistance to meet high power density requirements [3] Group 3: Pricing and Capacity Utilization - The company adjusted prices for certain products, such as chip resistors and inductors, in response to rising raw material costs, indicating a competitive market environment [3] - The current capacity utilization rate for main products remains high, with ongoing plans to expand production capacity for MLCCs, chip resistors, and inductors to support high-end transformation [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The company is experiencing sustained high demand driven by AI technology, which is transforming the electronic information industry. The focus is on high-end transformation and the development of new growth engines through AI computing power and emerging application fields [3][4] - The company has established a strong market presence in four core areas: smart terminals, industrial control, automotive electronics, and home appliances, while also expanding into AI computing power, low-altitude economy, and energy storage [3] - The company is responding quickly to downstream demand by launching a series of targeted products in the AI computing power sector, including various types of MLCCs, resistors, and inductors that meet the high-performance requirements of AI infrastructure [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2025 at 58 billion yuan, 2026 at 69 billion yuan, and 2027 at 79 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.6 billion yuan in 2025, 4.9 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.4 billion yuan in 2027 [5] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 17.0% in 2025, 17.1% in 2026, and 14.3% in 2027, with net profit growth rates of 5.8% in 2025, 37.1% in 2026, and 30.8% in 2027 [9][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for companies such as 中芯国际 (SMIC) and 通富微电 (Tongfu Microelectronics) [2][3] Core Insights - The electronic industry is experiencing a comprehensive "inflation" phase, with multiple segments seeing price increases due to supply chain constraints and rising raw material costs [7][34] - AI demand is driving price hikes in PCB upstream materials, with significant increases in costs for electronic cloth and copper foil, leading to a new round of price increases in the CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) sector [10][17] - The MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) market is entering a price increase cycle, driven by high demand from AI servers and supply constraints from leading manufacturers [31][32] Summary by Sections 1. AI Demand Driving Price Increases in PCB Upstream Materials - The CCL industry has initiated a new round of price increases, with Japanese manufacturers announcing price hikes of over 30% for copper foil substrates and adhesive films [10] - The demand for high-end products is squeezing traditional production capacities, leading to a tighter supply-demand balance in electronic cloth [19] - The HVLP (High Voltage Low Profile) copper foil market is experiencing an expanding supply gap, enhancing the industry's pricing power [24] 2. AI Industry Driving Demand for MLCC - The MLCC sector is seeing a surge in prices, with a nearly 20% increase in spot prices for Korean MLCCs and leading manufacturers considering price hikes due to sustained high demand [31][32] - The supply-demand balance for high-end MLCCs is tight, with production rates at leading companies reaching 90-95%, indicating a potential for continued price increases [32] 3. Upstream Raw Material Price Increases and Semiconductor Price Trends - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its price increase trend due to rising raw material costs and tight supply conditions [34] - Power semiconductors are also entering a new price increase phase, with companies like 新洁能 (New Clean Energy) announcing price hikes of at least 10% due to increased manufacturing costs [34] 4. Market Review - The electronic sector saw a weekly increase of 4.02%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.94 percentage points [37] - Year-to-date, the electronic sector has risen by 14.94%, again outperforming the broader index [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for companies such as 中芯国际 (SMIC) and 通富微电 (Tongfu Microelectronics) [2][3] Core Insights - The electronic industry is experiencing a comprehensive "inflation" phase, with multiple segments seeing price increases due to rising costs and supply chain constraints [7][34] - AI demand is driving price hikes in PCB upstream materials, with significant increases in costs for electronic cloth and copper foil, leading to a new round of price increases in the CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) sector [10][17] - The MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) market is entering a price increase cycle, driven by high demand from AI servers and supply constraints from leading manufacturers [31][32] Summary by Sections 1. AI Demand Driving Price Increases in PCB Upstream Materials - The CCL industry has initiated a new round of price increases, with Japanese manufacturers announcing price hikes of over 30% for copper foil substrates and adhesive films [10] - The demand for high-end products is squeezing traditional production capacities, leading to tighter supply in electronic cloth [19] - The HVLP (High Voltage Low Profile) copper foil market is experiencing an expanding supply-demand gap, enhancing the industry's pricing power [24] 2. AI Industry Driving Demand Upward, MLCC Enters Price Increase Cycle - The MLCC sector is seeing a surge in prices, with a nearly 20% increase in spot prices and leading manufacturers considering price hikes due to sustained high demand from AI applications [31][32] - The global high-end MLCC market is currently in a state of supply-demand imbalance, with utilization rates of leading manufacturers reaching 90%-95% [32] 3. Upstream Raw Material Price Increases + AI Demand Driving Semiconductor Price Increases - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its price increase trend due to rising raw material costs and tight supply of 8-inch wafers [34] 4. Market Review - The electronic sector saw a weekly increase of 4.02%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.94 percentage points, with a year-to-date increase of 14.94% [37]

- The report discusses a **quantitative timing model based on volume signals**, which evaluates market sentiment and timing by analyzing volume trends. The model's construction involves assessing the volume levels of major indices (e.g., Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, etc.) and assigning a cautious view when volume signals are weak. As of February 27, 2026, all major indices showed a "cautious" volume timing signal[24][25] - A **momentum sentiment indicator** is introduced, which calculates the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 index with positive returns over a specific period (N days). The formula is: $ \text{CSI 300 N-day Upward Proportion} = \frac{\text{Number of CSI 300 stocks with positive returns in N days}}{\text{Total number of CSI 300 stocks}} $ This indicator is used to capture market sentiment, with higher values indicating optimism. As of February 27, 2026, the indicator was above 60%, reflecting high market sentiment[25][26][27] - A **momentum sentiment timing strategy** is applied by smoothing the momentum sentiment indicator using two moving averages (short-term and long-term). When the short-term average exceeds the long-term average, the model signals a bullish market view. Parameters used are N=230, N1=50, and N2=35. As of February 27, 2026, the short-term line was above the long-term line, maintaining a bullish outlook[27][29] - The report also introduces an **eight-moving-average sentiment indicator**, which evaluates the CSI 300 index's trend by comparing its closing price against eight moving averages (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233). The indicator assigns values based on the number of moving averages the index surpasses. If the index price exceeds more than five moving averages, the model signals a bullish view. As of February 27, 2026, the CSI 300 index was in a "sentiment prosperity zone," indicating positive sentiment[34][38] - **Cross-sectional volatility** is analyzed as a measure of alpha opportunities. The report highlights that cross-sectional volatility for CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stocks increased week-over-week, indicating an improved short-term alpha environment. Over the past quarter, cross-sectional volatility for CSI 300 and CSI 1000 was in the upper-middle range of the past six months, while CSI 500 was in the middle range[39][40] - **Time-series volatility** is also examined, showing a week-over-week decline for CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stocks, suggesting a deteriorating short-term alpha environment. Over the past quarter, time-series volatility for CSI 300 and CSI 500 was in the middle range of the past six months, while CSI 1000 was in the upper-middle range[40][43]

Group 1 - North America is experiencing a power supply imbalance, exacerbated by the rapid expansion of AI data centers, leading to a core bottleneck in regional industrial development [1] - SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cell) and MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) are positioned to address the power and circuit operation challenges in North American data centers, forming the core support for optimizing data center power systems [1] - The global SOFC market is projected to grow from approximately $1 billion in 2024 to $4.7 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.7% from 2025 to 2033 [2] Group 2 - SOFC is recognized as a key solution for high-density loads due to its high energy conversion rate, reliable power stability, rapid deployment capability, low carbon emissions, and dynamic adjustable response [2] - Bloom Energy is a leading player in the global SOFC market, reporting revenues exceeding $400 million in Q2 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 19.5% [3] - The rapid development of the AI industry is driving significant demand for MLCCs, with increased GPU sales and computational power upgrades directly influencing this demand [4] Group 3 - The global MLCC market is concentrated, with Japanese and Korean manufacturers holding a dominant position, while domestic companies like Fenghua Advanced Technology and Sanhua Group are making strides in R&D and production capacity [5] - Domestic MLCC manufacturers are expected to leverage opportunities in the server market to catch up and potentially enter the global top tier by overcoming challenges in high-end materials and processes [5]