2026 年 02 月 10 日 开源晨会 0210 其 他 研 究 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | 5.175 | | 综合 | 4.699 | | 传媒 | 3.499 | | 电子 | 2.974 | | 计算机 | 2.883 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 石油石化 | 0.207 | | 银行 | 0.358 | | 食品饮料 | 0.373 | | 农林牧渔 | 0.422 | | 家用电器 | 0.468 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 本周（2026.2.2-2026.2.6）电子行业指数跌 3.73%，其中半导体跌 3.02%。光学光 电子跌 0.07%，消费电子跌 4.19%；海外科技方面，特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什担 任美联储主席，美股呈现剧烈动荡，费城半导体涨 0. ...

行 业 研 究 2026 年 02 月 09 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -38% -19% 0% 19% 38% 58% 77% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 电子 沪深300 相关研究报告 《靶材：提价趋势渐成，有望持续演 绎 —行业点评报告》-2026.2.5 《美股存储业绩超预期，海内外 CSP 持续加码 AI 资本支出—行业周报》 -2026.2.1 《被动元件：成本端驱动涨价潮，高 端需求开启新周期—行业点评报告》 -2026.1.26 关注半导体自主可控和涨价连锁反应 ——行业点评报告 | 陈蓉芳（分析师） | 陈瑜熙（分析师） | | --- | --- | | chenrongfang@kysec.cn | chenyuxi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790524120002 | 证书编号：S0790525020003 | chenyuxi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525020003 特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席，美股呈现剧烈动荡 合肥长鑫 2025 年底发布招股说明书，我们预计 2026 年长鑫长存扩产将会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent price hikes in passive components, led by major players like Yageo and Walsin, indicate a significant shift in the market driven by supply-demand imbalances and rising raw material costs, particularly in high-end sectors like AI and electric vehicles [1][4][19]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Yageo announced a price increase of 15%-20% for certain resistor products starting February 1, marking its third price adjustment in a short period [1]. - Walsin and Panasonic also announced price hikes of around 20% and 15%-30% respectively for various passive components, reflecting a broader trend among major manufacturers [1][2]. - Smaller manufacturers in China, such as Fenghua Advanced Technology and Shunluo Electronics, have also followed suit with price adjustments ranging from 5%-30% across multiple product categories [2][3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The passive component market is experiencing supply tightness, with lead times extending and some distributors pausing quotes due to uncertainty in price adjustments [3][4]. - Rising costs of raw materials, particularly precious metals like silver and palladium, have significantly increased production costs for passive components, with estimates suggesting a 20%-30% rise in production costs [5][6]. - Capacity constraints are exacerbated by major manufacturers shifting focus to high-end products, leading to a structural shortage in the mid-range market [7][8]. Group 3: Demand Drivers - The demand for passive components is being driven by the rapid growth of AI and electric vehicles, with AI servers requiring significantly more MLCCs than traditional servers [10][11]. - The automotive sector is also a major growth area, with electric vehicles using up to three times more passive components compared to traditional vehicles, creating a favorable environment for price increases [11][12]. - The overall market for passive components in China is projected to grow from 1237.65 billion yuan in 2023 to 2583.59 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.09% [13]. Group 4: Market Structure Changes - The current price hikes reflect a structural change in the passive components market, with high-end products experiencing significant demand while traditional consumer electronics face challenges [15][19]. - Domestic manufacturers in China are beginning to capture more market share, particularly in high-end segments, as they improve their technology and production capabilities [19][20]. - The geopolitical landscape and supply chain diversification are providing opportunities for Chinese manufacturers to enter high-end markets, as global players face capacity and delivery challenges [19][24]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The passive components market is expected to continue evolving, with AI and automotive electronics driving demand for high-value products [25][26]. - Companies need to focus on high-capacity, miniaturized, and reliable products to meet the changing market demands and maintain competitiveness [25][26]. - Collaboration across the supply chain will be crucial for manufacturers to overcome technical challenges and align with market needs [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The recent price hikes in passive components, driven by supply-demand imbalances and rising raw material costs, indicate a significant transformation in the market dynamics of the passive components industry [6][9][12]. Price Adjustments - Yageo announced a price increase of 15%-20% for certain resistor products starting February 1, reflecting its position as a market leader with an 18% global market share [2]. - Other companies, including Walsin Technology and Panasonic, have also announced price hikes for various passive components, with increases ranging from 15% to 30% [2][3]. - The price adjustments are widespread, with many small and medium-sized manufacturers in China also raising prices by 5%-20% across multiple product categories [3]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The price increases are primarily driven by rising costs of raw materials such as silver, copper, and aluminum, which have seen significant price surges, with silver prices increasing over 140% in 2025 [7][9]. - The production costs for passive components have risen by 20%-30% due to these raw material price increases, prompting manufacturers to pass on costs to customers [7][9]. - Capacity constraints are exacerbating the situation, as many Japanese manufacturers have shifted focus to high-end products, reducing supply in the mid-to-low-end market [8][9]. Demand Drivers - The demand for passive components is being driven by the rapid growth of AI and electric vehicle markets, with AI server motherboards requiring significantly more MLCCs than traditional servers [10][11]. - The demand for passive components in electric vehicles is also increasing, with the number of MLCCs used per vehicle rising dramatically compared to traditional vehicles [10][11]. - The overall market for passive components in China is projected to grow from 1237.65 billion yuan in 2023 to 2583.59 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.09% [12]. Market Structure Changes - The current price hikes reflect a structural change in the passive components market, with high-end products for AI servers and electric vehicles experiencing significant demand while traditional consumer electronics face challenges [14][17]. - Domestic manufacturers are beginning to capture more market share, with companies like Walsin Technology and Sunlord Electronics seeing increased orders and expanding their production capabilities [18][19]. - The shift towards high-end products presents opportunities for domestic manufacturers to enter the supply chains of larger companies, especially as global manufacturers face capacity and delivery challenges [22][23].

点击右边 阅读原文 了解更多详情 2026年第一季度存储器价格全面上涨，各类产品季增幅度将创历史新高 根据Tr endFor c e集邦咨询最新存储器产业调查，2026年第一季AI与数据中心需求持续加剧全球 存储器供需失衡，原厂议价能力有增无减，Tr endFor c e集邦咨询据此全面上修第一季DRAM、 NAND Fl a sh各产品价格季成长幅度， 预估整体Conventional DRAM合约价将从一月初公布 的季增55-60%，改为上涨90-95%，NAND Flash合约价则从季增33-38%上调至55-60% ，并 且不排除仍有进一步上修空间。 | | 4025 | 1Q26E revised | | --- | --- | --- | | PC DRAM | DDR4&DDR5 blended: up 38~43% | DDR4&DDR5 blended: up 105~110% | | Server DRAM | DDR4&DDR5 blended: up 53~58% | DDR4&DDR5 blended: up 88~93% | | Mobile DRAM | LPDDR4X: up ...

Core Insights - The MLCC industry is experiencing strong growth driven by demand from AI servers and automotive electronics [1] - The trend towards miniaturization, high capacitance, and high voltage MLCCs is being propelled by the increasing penetration of advanced driver assistance systems in the automotive sector [1] - In the AI server sector, the rising demand for computing power is leading to higher requirements for power and energy consumption metrics, resulting in increased usage of high-capacitance, high-temperature MLCCs [1] Industry Trends - The demand for MLCCs in electric vehicles is estimated to be around 20,000 to 30,000 units per vehicle, while AI servers require more than ten times the amount of MLCCs compared to standard servers [1] - According to statistics from Taiwan's largest passive component distributor, the NVL36 cabinet requires approximately 234,000 high-end MLCCs, and the NVL72 cabinet requires about 441,000 MLCCs [1] - This trend is reshaping the supply-demand dynamics of the MLCC industry and is driving strong demand for small particle size high-end powder materials [1]

机构：全球智能手机单季度平均售价首次突破400美元关口 2月5日，根据Counterpoint Research最新报告，2025年第四季度，全球智能手机市场收入同比增长 13%，达到1430亿美元，创单季度历史新高。同时，在高端化趋势持续推进以及物料清单（BOM）成 本上升的双重推动下，智能手机平均售价（ASP）同比增长8%，首次在单季度内突破400美元。出货量 同比增长5%，整体表现仍较温和，表明随着越来越多消费者选择更高价位的设备，市场增长继续以"价 值扩张"而非"规模扩张"为主。（智通财经） 上交所公布2026年春节休市安排 2月5日，上交所公布2026年春节休市安排：2月15日（星期日）至2月23日（星期一）休市，2月24日 （星期二）起照常开市。另外，2月14日（星期六）、2月28日（星期六）为周末休市。 机构：2026年MLCC市场两极分化 实体AI推动高端需求 据TrendForce集邦咨询消息，2026年第一季度全球MLCC市场出现两极分化。实体AI应用的落地激发了 高端MLCC需求，推动日、韩大厂产能满载，订单量显著增长。然而，中低端MLCC市场因原材料成本 上升和需求疲软，尤其在消费电子 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2026 年 2 月 4 日 晨会纪要 风险提示： 对上述事件发展趋势的点评，存在由于经济增长、行业竞争、销售不及预期等 变化，而不如预期的可能。 证书编号：S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、产业综合组： 全球最大的被动元件厂商日本村田制作所公布了最新的季度财报。2025年10-12 月的第三财季，主力产品电容营收增加 12.2%至 2391 亿日元，电感/EMI 滤波器 营收增加 9.5%至 564 亿日元。该季度电容订单 2681 亿日元，同比增长 29.4%。 订单额与销售额的比连续 5 个季度高于"1"。公司表示针对 MLCC 等电子元件 在 AI 服务器领域需求增长的情况，2026 年能否满足需求将成为重大课题。目前 公司尚未讨论涨价事宜，但认为应根据市场行情进行审慎考量。总体看，全球 被动元件的需求已明显加速，而国内被动元件公司的 PE 估值整体在 30~40 倍， 相对其它电子产业链估值偏低，因此我们看好 ...

Memory - South Korea's core technology product exports showed a positive trend in January 2026, with memory exports increasing by 154% year-on-year, driven by price hikes and strong server-related demand [3] - Samsung and SK Hynix are expected to see significant revenue growth in Q1 2026, with projections of 178% and 233% year-on-year increases, respectively [3] - NAND chip exports surged by 366%, indicating robust demand in the memory sector [3] Autonomous Driving/Physical AI - Google's Project Genie, powered by Genie 3, aims to create interactive worlds through user-generated content, marking a significant step towards AGI [5][6] - Waymo plans to raise approximately $16 billion, with a target valuation of nearly $110 billion, highlighting the increasing investment interest in autonomous driving technology [6][7] Robotics - Tesla's Optimus robot is set for a key release in Q1 2026, with significant upgrades aimed at mass production [8][9] - Yushin Robotics anticipates delivering around 55,000 robots in 2025, with nearly 50% of orders coming from overseas markets [10][11] AI Computing Power - NVIDIA's CEO clarified that the company's planned investment in OpenAI will be gradual, not reaching the previously mentioned $100 billion [14] - Oracle aims to raise $45-50 billion to expand its cloud infrastructure, driven by demand from major clients like AMD and Meta [14] AI Applications - Tencent is increasing its investment in AI, with its app Yuanbao leveraging community marketing strategies to enhance user engagement and market penetration [37] - The global PCB market is expected to double in size by 2026-2027, driven by the demand for AI servers and high-performance materials [38] Liquid Cooling - Fositek's revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 46% from 2025 to 2028, driven by advancements in liquid cooling technology [26][27] - The liquid cooling segment is expected to exceed 50% of revenue by 2026, indicating a strong market trend towards efficient cooling solutions [29] PCB - The global PCB market is experiencing robust growth, with a significant increase in demand driven by AI services and high-performance computing [30][31] - Companies like WUS and Zhen Ding Technology are positioned to benefit from the ongoing upgrade cycle in AI infrastructure [34][35]

(责任编辑：徐自立) 中国经济网北京1月29日讯 三环集团(300408.SZ)今日收报50.16元，跌幅4.17%。 三环集团2025年10月14日盘中股价一度达到55.12元，创历史新高。 中泰证券股份有限公司研究员王芳、刘博文2025年10月30日发布研报《三环集团(300408)：前三 季度稳健增长 看好MLCC/SOFC业务持续突破》称，维持三环集团"买入"评级。 华西证券股份有限公司研究员单慧伟2025年10月30日发布研报《三环集团(300408)2025年三季度 业绩点评：业绩符合预期 多轮驱动打开成长天花板》称，维持三环集团"买入"评级。 ...