新技术革命的不确定性，到底不确定在哪里？ 我接触过很多企业，从传统制造业到互联网公司，大家的困惑一般都集中在四个层面: 1、技术方向的模糊性： 最近跟朋友们聊天，聊的最多的话题是该如何管理新技术革命引发的不确定性。 其实仔细想想，这些年新技术革命，例如AI、大数据、云计算等，像潮水一样涌过来，我明显感觉 到：今天的企业，面临的不是有没有机会的问题，而是能不能在不确定性里站稳的问题。 我常和企业家说："以前我们怕'黑天鹅'，现在'黑天鹅'成了常态，以前拼的是'踩准封口'，现在拼的 是'在风力站得住'。" 新技术带来的不确定性，不是某一个环节的问题，而是从战略到组织、从人才到文化的全面冲击。咱们 得先看清楚不确定性长什么样，再想怎么应对。 新技术太多，每个领域都在快速迭代，企业根本不知道哪条路能走通。 比如前两年大家都在押注元宇宙，现在发现很多场景只是"概念"； 今年AI大模型火了，但90%的企业连"怎么用AI降本增效"都没搞明白。 技术的"不确定性"，本质是"投入和回报的周期"变得不可预测——投错了方向，可能血本无归；投对 了，也可能被更先进的技术快速淘汰。 2、市场需求"跳跃性"： 技术会直接重塑用户需求。 ...

Group 1 - The correct policy is to understand and engage with China rather than isolate it, as emphasized by Tony Blair [1][4] - Blair highlighted that China's economic development over the past decades is one of the most remarkable changes in human history, establishing a solid foundation for its status as a global power [4] - Many economies, particularly in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, prefer to maintain good relations with China rather than take sides [4] Group 2 - Blair believes that by the middle of this century, the global landscape may consist of three superpowers: the United States, China, and potentially India, necessitating regional integration for other countries to maintain influence [5] - He stressed the importance of regional groups like the European Union and ASEAN in enhancing their global roles [5] - Blair pointed out that Europe must strengthen its defense and economic capabilities to be a key player on the international stage [6] Group 3 - The current geopolitical situation presents an opportunity for Europe to develop its military capabilities, as reliance on external forces is insufficient [6] - In terms of economic competitiveness, Europe lags behind in emerging technologies, particularly in the AI sector, where the U.S. and China lead [6][7] - Blair remains cautiously optimistic about Europe's ability to enhance its competitiveness through necessary reforms, despite skepticism from external observers [7] Group 4 - Blair emphasized that the world is undergoing a new technological revolution, comparable to the Industrial Revolution of the 19th century, which will reshape key sectors like healthcare and education [8] - He warned that emerging technologies, such as AI, have dual-use characteristics, presenting both opportunities and risks, making governance a significant challenge for the 21st century [8]