原料药短期承压，CDMO 发展向好 普洛药业(000739) ——普洛药业 2024 年年报点评 | [table_Authors] 丁丹(分析师) | 吴晗(分析师) | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-23976735 | 010-83939773 | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | | 19.55 | | dingdan@gtjas.com | wuhan024878@gtjas.com | | 上次预测: | 19.55 | | 登记编号 S0880514030001 | S0880523080005 | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 15.27 | 本报告导读： 原料药阶段性承压，CDMO 项目数及客户数持续扩容，一体化增长可期 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 11,474 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The CDMO segment is expected to become a new growth driver despite short-term pressure on the raw materials business. The CDMO segment is projected to achieve revenue of 1.884 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 6.05%, with a gross profit of 773 million yuan and a gross margin of 41.06% [3] - The pharmaceutical segment is experiencing rapid gross profit growth due to a differentiated competitive strategy, with expected revenue of 1.256 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 0.51%, and a gross profit of 764 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.02% [3] - The overall revenue for the company in 2024 is projected to be 12.022 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.77%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.031 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.29% [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve total revenue of 12.022 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.77%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.031 billion yuan, down 2.29% [9] - The company’s gross margin is anticipated to improve as the revenue share from the raw materials business declines and the shares from the CDMO and pharmaceutical segments increase [9] CDMO Segment - The CDMO segment is expected to see a revenue of 1.884 billion yuan in 2024, down 6.05%, but the number of projects is increasing significantly, with 1,601 quoted projects (up 77%) and 996 ongoing projects (up 35%) [3] - The growth in projects is expected to create a funnel model that will drive profit growth in the future [3] Pharmaceutical Segment - The pharmaceutical segment is projected to generate revenue of 1.256 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross profit of 764 million yuan, leading to a gross margin of 60.81%, an increase of 7.67 percentage points [3] - The company is focusing on differentiated competition by developing unique products and improving production efficiency [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 1.175 billion yuan and 1.392 billion yuan, respectively, due to pressures in the raw materials business and potential foreign exchange losses [3] - The current market valuation corresponds to P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The CDMO segment is expected to become a new growth driver despite short-term pressure on the raw materials business. The CDMO segment is projected to achieve revenue of 1.884 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 6.05%, with a gross profit of 773 million yuan and a gross margin of 41.06% [3] - The pharmaceutical segment is experiencing rapid gross profit growth due to a differentiated competitive strategy, with expected revenue of 1.256 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 0.51%, and a gross profit of 764 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.02% [3] - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to be 12.022 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.77%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.031 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.29% [9] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow from 11.474 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.022 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.77% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 1.055 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.031 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected recovery to 1.175 billion yuan in 2025 [1] - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 17.22 in 2023 to 15.47 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [1] Operational Insights - The company has formed a preliminary funnel model for its CDMO business, with 1,601 quoted projects in 2024, a 77% increase, and 996 ongoing projects, a 35% increase [3] - The pharmaceutical segment's gross margin is expected to improve significantly, reaching 60.81% in 2024, up by 7.67 percentage points, due to adjustments in sales models and increased production efficiency [3] - The overall gross margin of the company is anticipated to improve as the revenue share from the lower-margin raw materials business declines and the higher-margin CDMO and pharmaceutical businesses grow [9]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·化学制药 普洛药业（000739） 2024 年年报点评：原料药业务短期承压，看 好 CDMO 成为新增长极 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11474 | 12022 | 13272 | 14816 | 16624 | | 同比（%） | 8.81 | 4.77 | 10.40 | 11.63 | 12.20 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1055 | 1031 | 1175 | 1392 | 1693 | | 同比（%） | 6.69 | (2.29) | 13.92 | 18.50 | 21.61 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.90 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.19 | 1.45 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 17.22 | 17.62 | 15.47 | 13.05 | 10.73 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Su ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 12.022 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.77%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 2.29% to 1.031 billion yuan [4][5] - The CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) projects are rapidly increasing, with 1,601 quoted projects, a year-on-year growth of 77%, and 996 ongoing projects, a year-on-year growth of 35% [5] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards due to weak demand in the antibiotic sector, with expected net profits of 1.177 billion yuan and 1.374 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][5] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.022 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 23.85% and a net margin of 8.57% [4] - The CDMO business revenue for 2024 was 1.884 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 41.06% [5] - The raw material drug intermediate business revenue was 8.651 billion yuan, showing an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, while the formulation business revenue was 1.256 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.5% [6] - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.01 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.4 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 120.22 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.77%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 2.29% to 10.31 billion yuan [4][5] - The CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) business is experiencing rapid growth, with the number of projects increasing significantly. The company has 1,601 quoted projects, a 77% year-on-year increase, and 996 ongoing projects, a 35% increase [5] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, now expecting net profits of 11.77 billion yuan and 13.74 billion yuan, respectively, while maintaining a high valuation attractiveness with a current PE ratio of 15.4 for 2025 [4][5] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 120.22 billion yuan, with a net profit of 10.31 billion yuan and a gross margin of 23.85% [4] - The CDMO business generated 18.84 billion yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 41.06% [5] - The raw material drug intermediate business saw revenue of 86.51 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3%, while the formulation business generated 12.56 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.5% [6] - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 136.51 billion yuan, 155.40 billion yuan, and 177.18 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 11.77 billion yuan, 13.74 billion yuan, and 16.52 billion yuan [8]

医药生物/化学制药 普洛药业（000739.SZ） 2024 年业绩稳健增长，CDMO 项目数快速增长 2025 年 03 月 12 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/11 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 15.54 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 18.96/12.23 | | 总市值(亿元) | 181.71 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 181.65 | | 总股本(亿股) | 11.69 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 11.69 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 47.0 | 股价走势图 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 普洛药业 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2024 年前三季度业绩稳健增长，汇 兑损失有所上升—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.10.18 《2024 上半年业绩超预期，原料药板 块强劲增长—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.16 余汝意（分析师） 阮帅（分析师） yuruyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523070002 原料药业绩维持增长，司 ...

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 12.022 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.77% [3] - Net profit for the same period was CNY 1.031 billion, a decrease of 2.29% compared to the previous year [3] - The raw material drug segment generated revenue of CNY 8.651 billion, up 8.32% year-on-year, with a gross profit of CNY 1.295 billion [3] - The CDMO segment's revenue was CNY 1.884 billion, down 6.05%, with a gross profit of CNY 0.773 billion [3] - The pharmaceutical segment reported revenue of CNY 1.256 billion, a slight increase of 0.51%, with a gross profit of CNY 0.764 billion [3] R&D and Project Development - R&D investment for 2024 was CNY 641 million, a 2.66% increase year-on-year [4] - The company quoted 1,601 projects in the CDMO segment, a 77% increase, with 996 ongoing projects, up 35% [4] - There are 116 API projects, with 22 already in production and 15 in the verification stage [4] Shareholder Returns - The total amount for share repurchase and cash dividends in 2024 was CNY 6.126 billion, representing 59.41% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6] - The company has already distributed CNY 2.259 billion in dividends prior to the annual report [7] Market Strategy and Outlook - The company plans to increase the number of API DMF filings by 30-50 over the next three years to support stable growth in the API business [5] - The pharmaceutical strategy focuses on multiple products and channels, with 25 formulation projects initiated annually [5] - The company aims to enhance its CDMO capabilities and expects to reach 3,000 operational projects in 2-3 years [8] Cost and Expense Management - Employee compensation expenses increased by CNY 80 million in 2024, and fixed asset depreciation rose by CNY 120 million, impacting gross profit by approximately CNY 200 million [7] - Sales expense ratio is expected to increase with business scale expansion, while R&D expenses are projected to grow by around 10% [14] Industry Challenges and Responses - The company anticipates continued pressure on raw material prices in early 2025, with a potential recovery in the latter half of the year [11] - The competitive landscape for generic drugs is expected to intensify, but the company is focusing on differentiated products to mitigate risks [13]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 12.022 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.77% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.031 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.29% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 984 million yuan, down 4.09% [1] - Operating cash flow was 1.209 billion yuan, reflecting a strong performance with a year-on-year growth of 17.20% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.56 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 412 million yuan [1] Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Position - The company focuses on refining its raw materials business strategy, aiming to supply high-quality and competitive APIs to global pharmaceutical companies [1] - The API business showed steady progress, with a sales revenue of 8.651 billion yuan, an increase of 8.32% year-on-year [1] - The company has developed over 50 new clients, enhancing its market share in strategic products [1] Group 3: CDMO Development - Since establishing the CDMO division, the company aims to become a leading global innovative drug R&D and production enterprise [2] - The number of quoted projects reached 1,601, a year-on-year increase of 77%, with ongoing projects totaling 996, up 35% [2] - The CDMO R&D center in Boston commenced operations in September 2024, enhancing service capabilities in the North American market [2] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Business - The pharmaceutical business generated revenue of 1.256 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.51% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 764 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.02% [2] - The gross margin for the pharmaceutical business was 60.81% [2] - The company is advancing a multi-product strategy, with over 120 formulation varieties and 64 projects under research [2] Group 5: R&D Investment - R&D investment reached 641 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.66%, accounting for 5.34% of revenue [3] - The company has received approvals for 12 API varieties and 5 formulations domestically, with 2 formulations approved by the FDA [3] - A new international high-end formulation workshop is planned to enhance production capacity, currently in the design phase [3]

Group 1 - The latest institutional holding trends are becoming clearer as the earnings report season unfolds [1] - The Basic Pension Insurance Fund's 808 combination has emerged as the eighth largest shareholder of Prologis, holding 11.8004 million shares, which accounts for 1.01% of the circulating shares [1]