Group 1 - The tourism and scenic area sector increased by 0.71% on February 4, with Caesar Travel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] - Key stocks in the tourism sector showed various performance, with Caesar Travel closing at 6.47, up 3.69%, and Xi'an Tourism at 10.53, up 3.54% [1] Group 2 - The tourism sector experienced a net outflow of 65.82 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 132 million yuan [2] - Notable stocks with significant fund flows included Caesar Travel with a net inflow of 73.92 million yuan from main funds, but a net outflow from retail investors of 58.75 million yuan [3] - Yunnan Tourism had a net inflow of 14.19 million yuan from main funds, with a net outflow of 8.36 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The civil aviation sector is expected to see record-high passenger transport volumes during the Spring Festival [2]. - The report highlights optimism for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to the upcoming holiday and improved vacation policies [4]. - The report suggests selecting short-term outperformers in the gold sector as the recent surge in gold prices may be ending [4]. - AI applications and undervalued new consumption sectors are also recommended for investment [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report notes a significant increase in domestic flight ticket bookings, with over 7.16 million tickets reserved as of January 29, 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 16% [4]. - International flight bookings also show slight growth, with over 1.72 million tickets reserved [4]. Retail Sector Insights - The report cites a Bain & Company report indicating a 3% to 5% contraction in China's personal luxury goods market in 2025, although this represents a significant improvement compared to the previous year's decline [4]. Company Announcements - Cai Bai Co. expects a net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [4]. - Lai Shen Tong Ling anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB for 2025, compared to a loss of 184 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Yu Garden Co. expects a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 125 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Cuihua Jewelry forecasts a net profit of 21 million to 31 million RMB for 2025, a decrease of 85.69% to 90.31% compared to the previous year [4]. Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks across various sectors, including: - Hotels: Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, JinJiang Hotels [4]. - Duty-free: China Duty Free Group [4]. - Scenic spots: Emei Mountain A, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism [4]. - Gold sector: Cai Bai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, Lao Pu Gold [4]. - AI and new consumption: Kangnait Optical, Huatu Shanding, Tianli International Holdings [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to see record-high passenger transport volumes in civil aviation [2]. - The report highlights optimism for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to improved vacation policies and anti-monopoly measures in online travel agencies (OTAs) [4]. - The report suggests selecting short-term outperformers in the gold market, as the recent surge in gold prices may be ending [4]. - AI applications and undervalued new consumption sectors are also recommended for investment [4]. Industry Updates - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, urging local governments to enhance policy design and support measures [4]. - As of January 29, 2026, domestic flight ticket bookings for the Spring Festival exceeded 7.16 million, with a daily average increase of approximately 16% year-on-year [4]. - Retail sector insights indicate a 3% to 5% contraction in China's personal luxury goods market in 2025, showing signs of recovery compared to a significant decline in 2024 [4]. Company Performance Forecasts - Cai Bai Co. expects a net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [4]. - Lai Shen Tong Ling anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB for 2025, compared to a loss of 184 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Yu Garden Co. forecasts a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 125 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - The report includes various companies with "Accumulate" ratings, such as Zhou Dafu, Cai Bai Co., and others, with detailed profit forecasts and valuation metrics [5].

Core Viewpoint - The tourism and scenic spots sector experienced a rise of 1.31% on January 29, with Emei Mountain A leading the gains, while the overall market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.16% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.3% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The tourism and scenic spots sector saw a notable increase, with Emei Mountain A closing at 13.78, up by 4.16% [1] - Other significant gainers included Lingnan Holdings at 12.84, up by 3.97%, and Huangshan Tourism at 12.26, up by 3.11% [1] - The overall trading volume for Emei Mountain A was 259,700 shares, with a transaction value of 354 million yuan [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The tourism and scenic spots sector had a net inflow of 24.06 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 82.52 million yuan [2] - Conversely, speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 107 million yuan [2] - The individual stock capital flow data indicates that Lingnan Holdings had a main fund net inflow of 27.80 million yuan, while Emei Mountain A had a net inflow of 24.35 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - Emei Mountain A is experiencing a recovery in visitor traffic, supported by shareholder rewards during the off-peak season, with expectations for improved capacity [1] Group 1: Visitor Traffic and Shareholder Rewards - The scenic area received 126,166 visitors during the three days of New Year's Day (January 1-3, 2026), with ticket sales of 83,391 and complimentary tickets of 42,775, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.88% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - A shareholder reward program running from December 1, 2025, to January 31, 2026 (excluding statutory holidays) offers discounts on tickets, cable cars, hotels, and hot springs, which is expected to boost visitor traffic in December and January during non-holiday periods [1] Group 2: Capacity and Financial Performance - Improvements in transportation and capacity are anticipated, which is expected to elevate long-term visitor traffic [1] - The company continues to provide cash dividends to shareholders, reflecting strong cash flow quality and a commitment to shareholder returns, which also enhances capital efficiency and investor return certainty, providing some support for valuation [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak revenue in 2025, adjustments have been made to the EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.45, 0.54, and 0.61 yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.63 and 0.69 yuan for 2025-2026 [1] - Based on comparable companies, the target price for 2026 is set at 17.28 yuan, applying a 32 times PE ratio, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Emei Mountain A is experiencing a recovery in visitor traffic, supported by shareholder rewards during the off-peak season, with expectations for improved capacity [1] Group 1: Visitor Traffic and Shareholder Rewards - During the New Year holiday from January 1 to January 3, 2026, the scenic area received 126,166 visitors, a 20.88% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Shareholder reward activities from December 1, 2025, to January 31, 2026, excluding statutory holidays, are expected to boost visitor traffic in December and January during non-holiday periods [1] Group 2: Capacity and Long-term Outlook - Improvements in transportation and capacity are anticipated, which will likely enhance long-term visitor traffic [1] - The company continues to provide cash dividends to shareholders, reflecting strong cash flow quality and a commitment to shareholder returns, which also aids in improving capital efficiency and investor return certainty [1] Group 3: Financial Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak revenue in 2025, the company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.45, 0.54, and 0.61 yuan, down from previous estimates of 0.63 and 0.69 yuan for 2025-2026 [1] - Based on comparable companies, the target price for 2026 is set at 17.28 yuan, applying a 32x PE ratio, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The strategic positioning of "service consumption" has been enhanced, expected to become a core engine for driving domestic demand. The State Council's meeting on January 16 emphasized the implementation of consumption-boosting actions and the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, providing a clear direction for consumption development in 2026 and the 14th Five-Year Plan [6] - During the Spring Festival travel season (February 2 - February 14, 2026), domestic flight ticket bookings exceeded 7.54 million, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The total expected passenger transport volume for civil aviation during the Spring Festival is projected to reach a historical high of 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [6] - The recovery of dining consumption in Q4 2025 was significantly stronger than that of retail goods, indicating a resurgence in service consumption. From October to December 2025, the year-on-year growth rates for dining revenue were 3.8%, 3.2%, and 2.2%, respectively, while retail goods growth rates were 2.8%, 1.0%, and 0.7% [6] Summary by Sections - **Recent Industry Performance**: Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown relative returns of 5.35% over one month, 7.38% over three months, and a decline of 3.0% over twelve months. Absolute returns were 6.42%, 8.38%, and 19.81% respectively [4] - **Policy Support**: The government has introduced policies to encourage service consumption, including optimizing school holiday arrangements to promote student well-being, which is expected to boost service consumption growth [6] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on listed companies in the dining, hotel, and tourism sectors, including China Duty Free Group, Shouhang Hotel, Jinjiang Hotels, and others, as they are likely to benefit from the positive trends in service consumption [6]

客流回暖，股东回馈拉动淡季，运力有望 改善 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到 25 全年收入偏弱，运力和交通还需一定时间释放，我们调整 2025-2027 年 EPS 预测为 0.45/0.54/0.61 元（此前为 25-26 年为 0.63/0.69 元），根据可比公司 26 年 32 倍 PE 对应目标价 17.28 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 若宏观出行需求不及预期、极端天气/运力约束影响旺季接待，或茶业等新业务推进与盈 利转化慢于预期，可能导致收入与利润修复不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,045 | 1,013 | 973 | 1,034 | 1,090 | | 同比增长 (%) | 142.3% | -3.0% | -4.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 135 | 218 | 230 | 285 | 334 | | 同比增长 (%) | 168.4% | 61 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.28 yuan based on a 32x PE ratio for 2026 [3][10][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a recovery in visitor traffic, supported by shareholder return policies that are boosting off-season performance. Improvements in transportation capacity are expected to enhance long-term visitor numbers [2][9]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards due to anticipated weak performance, with EPS estimates revised to 0.45, 0.54, and 0.61 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][10]. - The company has completed a board restructuring and is advancing its tea tourism strategy, which is expected to provide additional revenue streams [9]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financials are as follows: - Revenue (million yuan): 1,045 in 2023, 1,013 in 2024, 973 in 2025, 1,034 in 2026, and 1,090 in 2027, with a year-on-year growth of 142.3% in 2023, but a decline of 4.0% in 2025 [5][14]. - Operating profit (million yuan): 135 in 2023, increasing to 334 in 2027, with a significant growth of 168.4% in 2023 [5][14]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company (million yuan): 228 in 2023, projected to reach 323 in 2027, reflecting a growth of 256.2% in 2023 [5][14]. - EPS: 0.43 in 2023, expected to stabilize at 0.45 in 2025 and grow to 0.61 in 2027 [5][14]. - Gross margin: 49.7% in 2023, expected to improve to 51.6% by 2027 [5][14]. - Net margin: 21.8% in 2023, projected to increase to 29.6% in 2027 [5][14].

Group 1 - The company, Emei Mountain A, announced the establishment of Sichuan Emei Xueya Tea Industry Co., Ltd. during the 151st meeting of its fifth board of directors scheduled for December 19, 2025 [2] - The company has completed the business registration procedures for Sichuan Emei Xueya Tea Industry Co., Ltd. and obtained the registration notice and business license from the Emeishan Administrative Approval Bureau [2]