Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The overall performance in the first half of 2025 was stable and met expectations, with a slight decline in cable car passenger numbers due to weather conditions, but a record high revenue in Q2 2025 demonstrated robust operational performance [5] - The company achieved revenue of 378 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 95 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.86%, which aligns with expectations [5] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 has been adjusted to 232 million, 260 million, and 280 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.1, 18.8, and 17.5 [5] Financial Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a historical high revenue of 215 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.04%, and a net profit of 60 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.26% [5] - The company’s cable car and performance business saw a decline in visitor numbers, with a total of 3.088 million visitors in H1 2025, down 4.6% year-on-year, while the hotel business exceeded expectations with revenue growth [5] - The revenue from the Lijiang He Fu Hotel was 61.64 million yuan, up 5.5% year-on-year, and the revenue from the Diqing Shangri-La Hotel was 14.56 million yuan, up 25.1% year-on-year [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 808 million yuan in 2024 to 932 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 1%, 1%, 8%, and 6% respectively [3][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 211 million yuan in 2024 to 280 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -7%, 10%, 12%, and 8% respectively [3][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.38 yuan in 2024 to 0.51 yuan in 2027 [3][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that new regulations in Xi'an aim to manage the pricing of monopolistic transportation services in scenic areas, such as shuttle buses and cable cars, to prevent forced charges on tourists [1][2] - The regulations have received positive feedback, with many hoping that other scenic areas will follow suit to address the chaotic situation surrounding shuttle services [1][2] - A survey indicated that from January to July 2024, there were over 30,000 consumer complaints related to shuttle services in scenic areas, highlighting the widespread issue of forced charges [1][2] Group 2 - The regulations specifically prohibit mandatory use of shuttle services for the route from parking lots to scenic area entrances, which is a clear guideline, but the complexity of many scenic areas' practices complicates enforcement [1][2] - Some scenic areas have been reported to artificially extend the distance from the entrance to core attractions, making it difficult for consumers to discern legitimate needs from exploitative practices [2] - The issue of shuttle services is characterized by a lack of transparency, where tourists appear to have a choice but are often compelled to pay, raising concerns about the industry's reputation if not addressed [2][3] Group 3 - The problems stem from systematic design flaws in scenic area planning, where shuttle services have become an invisible consumption trap, leading to dissatisfaction among tourists [3] - Effective governance of these issues requires not only assessing price fairness and demand but also scrutinizing the planning details of scenic areas to eliminate unnecessary demands and prevent forced consumption [3]

Core Viewpoint - The tourism industry, once expected to thrive, is now facing significant challenges, highlighted by the bankruptcy of Qinghai Tourism Investment Group and the struggles of various tourism companies despite an increase in domestic travel and spending [2][3][4][8]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Qinghai Tourism Investment Group and its subsidiaries have filed for bankruptcy, shocking the tourism sector [3]. - The company, which aimed for significant growth and public listing, mismanaged its resources, leading to a loss of 4.8 billion in registered capital [4]. - 44 listed companies in the tourism sector reported their Q1 earnings, with 25 experiencing negative revenue growth, accounting for 56.8% of the total [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Major airlines like China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China reported substantial losses in Q1, with losses of 747 million, 995 million, and 2.044 billion respectively [7]. - Despite a 26.4% increase in domestic travel and an 18.6% rise in spending, the tourism industry is struggling financially [8][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The tourism market is saturated, with an increase in A-level scenic spots and travel agencies, yet average income has dropped by nearly 40% [31]. - Online travel platforms like Ctrip and Tongcheng are thriving, with Ctrip reporting a net profit of approximately 4.3 billion in Q1, showcasing the "shovel effect" where service providers profit while actual tourism businesses struggle [28][30]. Group 4: Shifts in Consumer Behavior - The tourism industry is transitioning to a 2.0 era, where experiential value is prioritized over mere scarcity of resources [46][50]. - Successful attractions like Jiuhua Mountain and Disney have capitalized on immersive experiences, contrasting with traditional scenic spots that fail to adapt [39][41]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Many tourism platforms are likely to face severe financial difficulties or bankruptcy if they cannot adapt to the changing market dynamics and consumer preferences [55][56]. - The current environment suggests a need for a significant restructuring within the tourism sector to eliminate ineffective players and allow successful entities to thrive [58][59].

Group 1 - The tourism industry is facing significant challenges, exemplified by the bankruptcy of Qinghai Tourism Investment Group and its subsidiaries, which had ambitious plans for investment and listing [1] - A total of 44 listed tourism companies reported their Q1 earnings, with 25 of them showing negative revenue growth, accounting for 56.8% of the total [1] - Despite an increase in domestic travel and spending, with 1.794 billion trips taken and total spending of 1.8 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, the tourism sector is struggling financially [4] Group 2 - Qinghai Tourism Investment Group had substantial natural, policy, and financial resources but mismanaged them, leading to bankruptcy within a decade [5][7] - Other state-owned tourism platforms are also experiencing difficulties, with Zhangjiajie Tourism Group reporting a revenue of 58.99 million yuan and a net loss of 31.25 million yuan in Q1 [8] - The tourism market is oversaturated, with a significant increase in A-level scenic spots and travel agencies, yet average income has decreased by nearly 40% [14] Group 3 - Online travel platforms like Ctrip and Tongcheng are thriving, with Ctrip reporting a net profit of approximately 4.3 billion yuan in Q1, highlighting the "shovel effect" in the tourism market [13] - Successful tourist attractions focus on enhancing visitor experience, as seen with Jiuhua Tourism and Disney, which reported significant profit increases [18][17] - The transition from a resource-based tourism model to an experience-driven model is crucial for survival in the current market, as traditional models are failing [20][21]

Summary of the Conference Call for Xiyu Tourism Industry Overview - The tourism industry in Xinjiang is experiencing a growth rate of approximately 10% in 2025, aligning with initial expectations, particularly during peak seasons such as the Dragon Boat Festival and local ethnic festivals [3][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Revenue and Consumer Behavior**: Despite an increase in visitor numbers, the average spending per visitor has slightly decreased. The proportion of spending on dining and accommodation is relatively low, while secondary consumption categories, such as boat rides and cable car usage, have seen a decline in growth relative to visitor numbers [2][4] - **Shareholder Actions**: The controlling shareholder plans to increase their stake by up to 1.35% to strengthen actual control over the company and avoid triggering a mandatory takeover bid. The second-largest shareholder, Changji State Investment, currently has no plans to buy or sell shares [2][6][7] - **Management Changes**: Recent changes in the management team of the cultural tourism group are internal adjustments and will not affect the strategic direction. The group aims to accelerate its strategic layout and control over Xiyu Tourism [2][8] - **Summer Season Preparations**: The company is actively preparing for the summer peak season by enhancing marketing efforts for the Tianshan Tianchi scenic area and ensuring operational safety and service quality [2][9] - **Secondary Consumption Strategies**: To address pressures on secondary consumption, the company will strengthen coordination with tour guides and travel agencies, and increase promotional efforts for projects like cable cars and space capsule camps through social media platforms [2][10] - **Low-altitude Economy Initiatives**: The company is exploring opportunities in the low-altitude economy and has reported to the regional development and reform commission to seek policy support and flight operation permits. However, the commercialization timeline remains uncertain due to the lack of established regulations at the national level [2][11] - **Winter Tourism Plans**: For 2025, the company has not yet finalized its winter tourism plans but intends to continue its collaboration with the World Ice Sailing Championship to promote winter activities at Tianshan Tianchi [2][12] - **Addressing Transportation Bottlenecks**: The company acknowledges existing bottlenecks in transportation and accommodation during the peak tourist season and plans to expand self-driving tour options to mitigate these issues [2][5][13] - **Future Investment Directions**: The company will focus on stabilizing its core scenic area, Tianshan Tianchi, while exploring project collaborations in other areas such as Kashgar and Sayram Lake [2][14] - **Cost Management**: Future labor costs are expected to rise, but the company aims to manage these through improved operational efficiency. Equipment maintenance costs are stable due to effective management practices [2][15] - **External Expansion Plans**: The company is pursuing external expansion through project collaborations, aligning with its strategic goals, but this will take time to implement [2][16] - **Shareholder Return Plans**: The company has a clear plan for share buybacks and has distributed dividends in three of the past five years, with intentions to continue rewarding investors as conditions allow [2][18][19] - **Asset Integration Timeline**: There is currently no specific timeline for asset integration within the group [2][20] Additional Important Information - The company is focusing on enhancing its marketing strategies and operational management to ensure a successful peak season while navigating challenges in consumer spending and operational bottlenecks [2][9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The tourism and scenic spots industry in China has shown robust growth in 2024, with significant increases in revenue and net profit, driven by rising domestic and international travel demand [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In 2024, 22 listed tourism and scenic companies achieved a total revenue of 35.423 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.34%, and a net profit of 1.673 billion yuan, up 7.19% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw 23 listed tourism and scenic companies generate 7.342 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 3.45% year-on-year growth [4]. Group 2: Market Trends - There is a growing interest among foreign tourists in Chinese culture and natural scenery, which is expected to create more opportunities for listed tourism companies [1]. - The "May Day" holiday in 2025 is projected to reach peak travel activity since 2023, indicating a strong recovery in the tourism sector [4]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Companies like Tianfu Culture Tourism and Xiangyuan Culture Tourism reported revenue growth exceeding 30% in the first quarter of 2025 [6]. - Tianfu Culture Tourism plans to enhance its core competitiveness by expanding its cultural tourism offerings and integrating film and tourism [7]. Group 4: Inbound Tourism Growth - The inbound tourism market is experiencing a surge, with a 61% increase in foreign visitors in 2024, recovering to over 90% of 2019 levels [9]. - The "May Day" holiday saw a 173% year-on-year increase in inbound travel orders, highlighting the sector's recovery [9]. Group 5: Policy Impact - Recent policy changes, including optimized tax refund measures for outbound tourists, are expected to enhance the inbound tourism experience and stimulate demand [10].