| 2026 | | 年 月 03 | 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究所： | | | [Table_Title] | | 证券分析师： | | 陈晨 | 港口煤价本周止跌上涨， S0350522110007 | | | | | chenc09@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 张益 | S0350124100016 淡季的价格韧性打开旺季空间 | | | | | zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 徐萌 | S0350125070001 | | | | | xum02@ghzq.com.cn ——煤炭开采行业周报 | 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2026/03/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | 13.1% | 22.1% | 29.5% | | 沪深 300 | -2.0% | -0.0% | 14.9% | 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业 1-2 月数据全面解读：供需存缺口， 整体 ...

海外煤价传导显现，看涨煤价 [Table_ReportTime] 2026 年 3 月 22 日 证券研究报告 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 刘波： 煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 海外煤价传导显现，看涨煤价 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 22 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http ...

煤炭 2026 年 03 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《中东局势催化油价，煤化工将持续 受益—行业周报》-2026.3.15 《中东局势短期难以结束，煤价有望 持续催化—行业点评报告》-2026.3.9 《三月煤矿复产增多，中东局势有望 持续催化煤价—行业周报》-2026.3.1 煤炭开启新一轮上行，焦煤板块低位攻守兼备 ——行业周报 王高展（分析师） 程镱（分析师） wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 本周要闻回顾：煤炭开启新一轮上行，焦煤板块低位攻守兼备 动力煤方面：动力煤价格微跌，截至 3 月 20 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 735 元/吨，环比上涨 6 元/吨，前期已经完成了我们估算的第四目标价格区间，即 800-860 元区间。目前煤价已经恢复至我们预期的煤电盈利均分线 750 元附近， 并保持窄幅波动。我 ...

海外煤价传导显现，看涨煤价 [Table_ReportTime] 2026 年 3 月 22 日 证券研究报告 刘波： 煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 海外煤价传导显现，看涨煤价 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 22 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报（2026 年第 11 期） 本周煤价企稳回升，前 2 月火电水泥需求同比转正 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-22 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]沈涛 SAC 执证号：S0260523030001 SFC CE No. AUS961 010-59136686 shentao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 安鹏 SAC 执证号：S0260512030008 SFC CE No. BNW176 021-38003693 anpeng@gf.com.cn 分析师： 宋炜 SAC 执证号：S0260518050002 SFC CE No. BMV636 021-38003691 songwei@gf.com.cn -10% -1% 8% 16% 25% 34% 03/25 06/25 08/25 10/25 01/26 03/26 煤炭开采 沪深300 [Tab ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, with specific recommendations for various companies [2][14]. Core Insights - The domestic supply contraction is the main driver for the upward shift in coal prices, supported by overseas factors and increased demand from coal chemical industries [6][8]. - The report forecasts that coal prices will stabilize and fluctuate within the range of 800-1000 RMB/ton, with limited adjustment potential due to low inventory and rising non-electric demand [8][9]. - The coal chemical sector is expected to see significant growth, with coal consumption projected to reach 304 million tons in 2023, increasing to 362 million tons by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 11.5% [9][10]. Summary by Sections Company Performance and Recommendations - Recommended companies include: 1. High spot price elasticity stocks: Jinko Coal, Shanxi Coal International, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Huayang Co., and Yanzhou Coal [14]. 2. Industry leaders with stable performance: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [14]. 3. Beneficiaries of nuclear power growth: CGN Mining [14]. - The report highlights that the coal sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 5.4% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's decline of 0.7% [15][18]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a significant increase in coal demand due to high European gas prices and the restart of coal-fired power plants in Europe, which has led to a rise in international coal prices [6][8]. - Domestic coal supply is expected to continue contracting, with approximately 200 million tons of capacity still pending replacement and environmental approval, posing a risk of further reductions [8][9]. Coal Chemical Industry Growth - The report emphasizes the rapid growth of the coal chemical sector, with ongoing projects expected to consume approximately 243 million tons of coal, and potential future projects could double this demand [9][10]. - The increase in chemical product prices and the geopolitical focus on energy security are expected to accelerate the approval and construction of new coal chemical projects [9][10]. Price Trends and Inventory - As of March 13, coal prices at Qinhuangdao Port were reported at 731 RMB/ton, reflecting a weekly decrease of 14 RMB/ton, while prices in various production areas showed mixed trends [10][12]. - The report indicates that the average daily coal consumption in power plants has decreased, leading to an increase in available days of coal supply [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Views - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and logistical bottlenecks in Russia have led to a suspension of coal exports from Russia, significantly impacting global coal trade dynamics and prices [2]. - The report highlights a substantial increase in shipping costs for coal from the Far East to China, with freight rates rising by 17%-27% in the last week of February [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of performance in annual reports, recommending companies with strong performance such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Shenhua Energy [3]. Summary by Sections Global Energy Price Review - As of March 13, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $103.14 per barrel, up $10.45 (+11.27%) from the previous week. WTI crude oil futures settled at $98.71 per barrel, up $7.81 (+8.59%) [1]. - Natural gas prices in Northeast Asia saw a decline, with spot prices at $20.01 per million British thermal units, down $1.17 (-5.50%) [1]. - Coal prices varied, with European ARA port coal at $124.00 per ton, down $5.50 (-4.25%), while Newcastle port coal rose to $138.00 per ton, up $4.60 (+3.45%) [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3]. - It also highlights companies in the smart mining sector like Keda Control and those undergoing turnaround like China Qinfa [3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that global coal prices are reacting strongly to geopolitical tensions, with prices in Western Europe rising from $105 per ton to $125-130 per ton, and Newcastle high-calorific coal prices increasing to $130 per ton [2][3]. - The report indicates that the logistics costs are expected to rise due to rerouting of shipping routes to avoid conflict zones, impacting overall coal supply and pricing [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and logistical bottlenecks in Russia have led to a suspension of coal exports from Russia, significantly impacting global coal trade dynamics and prices [2] - The report highlights a substantial increase in shipping costs for coal from the Far East to China, with freight rates rising by 17%-27% in the last week of February [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of performance in annual reports, recommending companies such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3] Summary by Sections Global Energy Price Review - As of March 13, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $103.14 per barrel, up $10.45 (+11.27%) from the previous week; WTI crude oil futures settled at $98.71 per barrel, up $7.81 (+8.59%) [1] - Natural gas prices in Northeast Asia saw a decline, with spot prices at $20.01 per million British thermal units, down $1.17 (-5.50%) [1] - Coal prices showed mixed trends, with European ARA coal prices at $124.00 per ton, down $5.50 (-4.25%), while Newcastle coal prices rose to $138.00 per ton, up $4.60 (+3.45%) [1] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the suspension of Russian coal exports is due to logistical constraints, including railway restrictions and shipping delays, which have led to increased shipping costs and reduced supply [2] - The report indicates that global coal prices have reacted sharply to geopolitical tensions, with prices in Western Europe rising from $105 to $125-130 per ton, and Newcastle coal prices increasing to $130 per ton [2] Key Stocks - The report recommends a buy rating for several companies, including: - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.46 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 9.40 [6] - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) with an EPS forecast of 2.95 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 13.70 [6] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.44 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 10.20 [6] - Other companies to watch include Peabody (BTU), Jin Coal Industry, and Lu'an Environmental Energy, among others [3]

Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to transition from a loose supply-demand balance to a tighter one in 2026, driven by limited domestic production growth and declining export expectations from Indonesia, alongside improved demand prospects [5][80] - Geopolitical tensions are anticipated to support energy prices and coal demand, leading to potential profitability and valuation elasticity in the coal sector [5][80] Market Dynamics - Domestic port coal prices have slightly declined, while international coal prices remain strong. The CCI5500 index for thermal coal is reported at 736 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB/ton week-on-week [5][11] - Domestic production prices for thermal coal have generally decreased, with significant drops in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia regions [11] - The coal mining capacity utilization rate has increased to 84.1%, indicating a recovery in production levels [20] Industry Insights - The coal industry index has risen by 5.4% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.2 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has increased by 26.5% [80] - The demand for thermal coal is expected to be supported by chemical coal needs due to geopolitical tensions, despite a seasonal decline in demand as temperatures rise [81] - The focus on energy security and the transition to cleaner energy sources is emphasized in the recently released 14th Five-Year Plan, which aims to enhance coal production capacity and improve energy efficiency [83][84] Key Companies - Leading companies with strong price elasticity and value include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, China Coal Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Shenhua Energy [5] - Companies positioned for thermal coal elasticity include Jinko Energy, China Power Investment Corporation, and Yancoal Australia [5] - High-growth companies identified include Baofeng Energy, Huayang Co., and Xinjie Energy [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with domestic coal prices under pressure due to increased import costs and geopolitical tensions affecting shipping rates [4][7] - The report highlights that while the coal price has shown a downward trend recently, there is potential for recovery driven by high international energy prices and domestic demand in the coming months [7][14] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of March 13, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 729 RMB/ton, a decrease of 14 RMB/ton week-on-week [14] - Production capacity utilization in the western regions increased by 4.72 percentage points week-on-week, attributed to the resumption of operations in small and medium-sized coal mines [14] - The daily consumption of the six major power plants increased by 47,000 tons week-on-week [14] - The price difference between domestic and Australian thermal coal has widened to -42 RMB/ton as of March 12 [14] 2. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate for coking coal mines increased by 1.16 percentage points to 85.7% week-on-week [5] - The average daily crossing volume at Ganqimaodu port was 1,378 cars, an increase of 50 cars week-on-week [5] - The price of main coking coal at ports is 1,570 RMB/ton, down 10 RMB/ton week-on-week [41] 3. Coke - The production capacity utilization rate for coking plants increased by 0.04 percentage points to 74.1% week-on-week [6] - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased to -3 RMB/ton, down 20 RMB/ton week-on-week [65] - The inventory of independent coking plants decreased week-on-week, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics [62] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite coal remains stable, with no significant changes reported [82] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report identifies several key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, recommending a "Buy" rating for these stocks based on their strong fundamentals and growth potential [9]