Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Yanghe Co. is navigating through a challenging environment in the liquor industry, focusing on inventory reduction and price stabilization while adapting to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yanghe Co. achieved revenue of 14.796 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.344 billion yuan [1]. - The company's contract liabilities at the end of the reporting period reached 5.878 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.26%, indicating a recovery in confidence among distributors [3]. Group 2: Industry Context - The liquor industry is experiencing a phase of "stock competition," with a notable shift towards rational consumption and a preference for quality and cost-effective products [3]. - The market for light bottle liquor has been growing, with projections indicating it will exceed 200 billion yuan in 2025, particularly in the 50-100 yuan price range, which is expected to grow over 40% [6]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Yanghe Co. has implemented a "bottle opening" policy to control volume and stabilize prices for key products like Meng Liu+ and Hai Zhi Lan, aiming to assist in inventory reduction and stimulate sales [3]. - The company has launched the seventh generation of Hai Zhi Lan and developed the Yanghe Daqu high-end light bottle liquor, targeting the 50-80 yuan market segment with a focus on quality and value [6][7]. Group 4: Product Development - The seventh generation of Hai Zhi Lan has improved its quality by increasing the proportion of aged liquor while maintaining its price point, reinforcing its position as a "billion-dollar product" [7]. - Yanghe Co. emphasizes quality as a core value, with stringent standards in raw material selection and production processes to enhance consumer drinking experiences [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The strategic adjustments made by Yanghe Co. are seen as effective, positioning the company for potential growth despite ongoing industry challenges [7]. - The company holds significant production capacity, including 700,000 tons of base liquor and 230,000 tons of high-end storage, which are expected to support its long-term development [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategic adjustments of Yanghe Co., highlighting its focus on quantity control and price stability in response to the ongoing adjustments in the liquor industry, with an emphasis on the growth of the light bottle liquor market and the introduction of new products [2][5][9]. Industry Overview - The liquor industry is currently in a "stock competition" phase, characterized by a rational demand for high-end liquor and increased pressure on mid-range prices, while the mass consumption market shows a dual trend of "quality upgrade" and "cost-performance pursuit" [4][5]. - The industry is experiencing a continuous decline in overall market sentiment, with a trend towards concentration and differentiation as rational consumption becomes more prevalent [5][6]. Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yanghe Co. reported revenue of 14.796 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.344 billion yuan, indicating a proactive approach to managing performance amid industry challenges [2]. - The company has begun to lower its growth expectations since the second half of 2023 to address high channel inventory and price inversion issues, positioning itself as a leader in the industry [6][7]. Strategic Adjustments - Yanghe Co. has implemented a policy of quantity control and price stability for its main products, such as Meng Liu and Hai Zhi Lan, to help reduce inventory and stimulate sales [7]. - The company reported a 49.26% year-on-year increase in contract liabilities, indicating a recovery in confidence among distributors [7]. Product Development - The light bottle liquor market has been growing, with expectations to reach 200 billion yuan in 2025, particularly in the 50-100 yuan price range, which is projected to grow over 40% [9]. - Yanghe Co. has launched the seventh generation of Hai Zhi Lan and developed the Yanghe Daqu high-line light bottle liquor, targeting the mass consumption market with a focus on quality and cost-effectiveness [9][10]. Quality and Brand Strategy - The company emphasizes quality as its lifeline, maintaining strict standards in raw material selection and brewing processes to enhance consumer experience [10]. - The strategic adjustments made by Yanghe Co. have shown early signs of success, indicating potential for future growth despite ongoing industry adjustments [10].

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector continues to rise, with the Food ETF (515710) experiencing a maximum intraday increase of 1.3% and closing up 0.81%, marking three consecutive days of gains [1] - Major stocks in the liquor sector saw significant gains, with Jiugui Liquor hitting the daily limit, Shede Liquor rising by 6.25%, and Yanghe Distillery increasing by 5.36% [1] - The overall performance of the food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from ongoing consumption promotion policies, particularly for liquor companies [3] Group 2 - The food ETF (515710) is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.06, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - Despite recent price increases, the liquor sector is still considered undervalued, providing a good entry point for investors [3][4] - The market anticipates a recovery in demand for liquor during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which may help mitigate the decline in sales observed in the second quarter [4] Group 3 - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the CSI sub-index for the food and beverage industry, with approximately 60% of its holdings in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks [4] - Key stocks in the ETF include major brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili, indicating a strong focus on established players in the market [4] - The ETF provides a way for investors to gain exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector, particularly in the liquor segment [4]

Core Insights - The company, Yanghe Co., Ltd., reported a significant decline in financial performance for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 14.796 billion yuan, down 35.32% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.344 billion yuan, down 45.34% [1][3] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2025 was 14.796 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.32% compared to 22.876 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.344 billion yuan, down 45.34% from 7.947 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - Gross margin was 75.02%, a slight decrease of 0.44% year-on-year, while net margin fell to 29.3%, down 15.66% [1] - Total expenses (selling, administrative, and financial) increased by 40.29%, amounting to 2.866 billion yuan, which constituted 19.37% of total revenue [1] - Earnings per share dropped to 2.88 yuan, a decline of 45.34% from 5.28 yuan in 2024 [1] Operational Challenges - The decline in revenue was attributed to a downturn in the white liquor market, affecting both sales volume and revenue [3] - Financial expenses surged by 62.62% due to reduced bank deposits and lower interest income [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 69.85%, reflecting reduced cash inflow from sales [3] Industry Outlook - The white liquor industry is characterized by strong cultural attributes and is expected to maintain its long-term value despite facing cyclical adjustments [6] - The industry is shifting towards rational consumption, emphasizing quality and value creation for consumers [7] - Yanghe Co., Ltd. aims to enhance brand value and product quality while adapting to changing consumer trends, particularly among younger demographics [7] Investment Sentiment - Analysts project that the company's performance for 2025 will yield a net profit of approximately 5.044 billion yuan, with an average earnings per share estimate of 3.35 yuan [4] - The company has seen increased holdings from various funds, indicating a potential positive sentiment among institutional investors [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is undergoing a significant transformation in marketing strategies while managing inventory effectively amidst a challenging market environment [7] - The company has reported a substantial decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue down 35.32% year-on-year and net profit down 45.34% year-on-year [7] - The report emphasizes the company's proactive measures to adjust its operations, including the launch of new products to stabilize its market position [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 33,126 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 10.04% [1] - The forecast for 2024 shows a decline in revenue to 28,876 million RMB, a decrease of 12.83% [1] - By 2025, revenue is expected to drop further to 20,161 million RMB, reflecting a significant decline of 30.18% [1] - The company's net profit for 2023 is estimated at 10,016 million RMB, with a growth of 6.80% [1] - The net profit is projected to decrease to 6,673 million RMB in 2024, down 33.37% [1] - For 2025, the net profit is expected to further decline to 3,996 million RMB, a decrease of 40.12% [1] - The report anticipates a dynamic dividend yield of over 6.5% based on the company's commitment to distribute at least 70% of its net profit as dividends from 2024 to 2026 [7] Market and Operational Insights - The company is focusing on reducing inventory and enhancing sales strategies in response to ongoing market pressures [7] - The report notes a significant drop in sales for both mid-range and regular products, with declines of 36.52% and 27.24% respectively in the first half of 2025 [7] - The company is also adjusting its distribution strategy, with a focus on strengthening its presence in key markets while reducing the number of distributors in less profitable regions [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is undergoing adjustments and is expected to improve in the future, with management changes and a focus on controlling inventory and stabilizing prices [7] - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 14.796 billion yuan (down 35% year-on-year) and net profit of 4.344 billion yuan (down 45% year-on-year) [4][5] - The company is focusing on high-quality adjustments and is expected to gradually release positive effects from reforms [7] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.729 billion yuan (down 44% year-on-year) and a net profit of 707 million yuan (down 63% year-on-year) [4][5] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 73.32%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, while the net profit margin decreased by 10 percentage points to 18.84% [5] - The company’s sales return in Q2 2025 was 2.573 billion yuan (down 48% year-on-year), indicating significant pressure on cash flow [5] Sales and Market Dynamics - The company’s white liquor revenue for H1 2025 was 14.494 billion yuan (down 35% year-on-year), with sales volume of 78,200 tons (down 32% year-on-year) [6] - The average price per ton was 185,400 yuan (down 5% year-on-year), with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue of 12.672 billion yuan (down 37% year-on-year) [6] - Revenue from the domestic market was 7.121 billion yuan (down 26% year-on-year), while revenue from the external market was 7.392 billion yuan (down 43% year-on-year) [6] Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.42 yuan, 2.60 yuan, and 2.89 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 31, 28, and 26 times [7][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 14.796 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 35.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.344 billion yuan, down 45.3% year-on-year [6] - The report predicts that the net profit for 2025-2027 will be 5.03 billion yuan, 5.05 billion yuan, and 5.39 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -24.6%, 0.4%, and 6.8% [6] - The company’s dividend policy indicates a minimum annual dividend of 7 billion yuan for 2025-2026, implying a dividend yield of 6.5% [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 28.876 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -12.8% [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 72% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 10.1% [5] - The company reported a net profit margin of 18.95% in Q2 2025, a decrease of 9.63 percentage points year-on-year [6] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from liquor sales was 14.494 billion yuan, down 35.4% year-on-year, with sales volume at 78,200 tons, a decrease of 32.4% [6] - The average price per ton of liquor was 185,000 yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year [6] - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 12.67 billion yuan, down 36.5%, while ordinary liquor revenue was 1.84 billion yuan, down 27.2% [6] Cash Flow and Liabilities - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q2 2025 was -1.92 billion yuan, with cash received from sales down 47.5% year-on-year [6] - The company's contract liabilities and other current liabilities at the end of Q2 2025 amounted to 6.101 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous quarter [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 14.796 billion yuan, down 35.32% year-on-year, and net profit at 4.344 billion yuan, down 45.34% year-on-year [2] - The company is in a phase of inventory destocking and has shown a strong intention to clear risks, with a notable increase in contract liabilities [4] - The company has implemented strict supply controls for its premium products, which has contributed to the decline in sales [5] - The company’s performance in its home province is stronger than in other regions, reflecting its brand strength and channel capabilities [6] - The decline in profitability is primarily attributed to increased expense ratios, which have diluted earnings despite stable product margins [7][8] Financial Summary - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected revenues revised down to 19.975 billion yuan for 2025, and net profits adjusted to 4.427 billion yuan for the same year [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast has been lowered to 2.94 yuan for 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25, 20, and 19 for 2025-2027 [9] - The company’s gross margin is projected to decline slightly to 71.9% in 2025, with net profit margins expected to be around 22.2% [10]

政策影响下报表风险充分释放，分红规划明确。25H1 公司焕新推出第七代海之蓝并上线省内市场，借 势"苏超"热潮，在宿迁队冲击四强之际启动"豪赠计划"，于江苏省内十三市投放60 万瓶100ml 装新品强 化培育；同时公司上线洋河大曲高线光瓶酒，依托行业唯一"真实年份"认证及59 元/500ml 的极致性价 比，与京东达成战略合作，预售48 小时即破万瓶。我们认为，行业调整期酒企应聚焦核心市场，强化 渠道梳理与消费者培育以稳固份额。当前洋河报表风险进一步释放，后续应重点关注产品升级及渠道改 革成效，夯实发展基础以备新一轮发展。分红方面，公司24 年发布的分红回报规划表示2024-2026 年度 保底每年分红70 亿元，对应当前市值，股息率达到6.65%。 盈利预测与投资建议：我们认为公司历经深度改革和调整周期，关注财报业绩探底过程及后续去库后的 边际改善，预计公司25-26 年实现营收235.94/241.51 亿元，同比-18.3%/+2.4%，预计25-26 年实现归母 净利润50.44/50.97 亿元，同比-24.4%/+1.0%，给予"推荐"评级。 风险提示：消费复苏不及预期，新品推广不及预期，区域市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yanghe Co., Ltd. reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, leading to a decision not to distribute cash dividends or issue new shares [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 14.80 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.32% year-on-year [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.34 billion yuan, down 45.34% compared to the previous year [2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 4.23 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 46.71% [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 616 million yuan, a drop of 69.85% [2]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both 2.88 yuan, down 45.34% [2]. - The weighted average return on equity was 8.54%, down 5.67% from the previous year [2]. Asset and Equity Position - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were 61.26 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.03% from the end of the previous year [2]. - Net assets attributable to shareholders were 48.93 billion yuan, down 5.15% [2]. Product Performance - Revenue from high-end liquor was 12.67 billion yuan, a decline of 36.52% year-on-year [3]. - Revenue from ordinary liquor was 1.84 billion yuan, down 27.24% [3]. - The company produced 48,900 tons of liquor and sold 78,200 tons, with inventory at 16,300 tons, representing declines of 51.63%, 32.35%, and 33.96% respectively compared to the previous year [4]. Distribution Network - As of June 30, 2025, the number of distributors was 8,609, a decrease of 257 from the end of 2024, with a reduction of 268 distributors outside Jiangsu province [5]. - The number of distributors within Jiangsu province increased by 11 to 3,010 [5]. Leadership Changes - The current chairman, Gu Yu, took office less than a month after the resignation of former chairman Zhang Liandong due to work adjustments [6]. - Gu Yu was elected as the chairman of the board on July 21, 2025, with a term aligned with the current board [7].