Investment Rating - Investment advice indicates a sector recovery catalyzed by recent CPI data, focusing on growth and supply-demand inflection points [5][16]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer goods growth, particularly in beverages, snacks, and food ingredients, while also highlighting structural opportunities in the baijiu sector [5][16]. - CPI data shows a positive trend with October CPI year-on-year at +0.2% and core CPI at +1.2%, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [6][16]. - The baijiu industry is undergoing accelerated clearing, with expectations for improved sales and inventory adjustments leading into 2026 [7][16]. - Consumer goods are expected to benefit from stabilization and recovery, with a focus on low valuation and high dividend stocks [8][16]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended baijiu stocks include Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory, Gujing Distillery, and stable targets like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [5][16]. - Beverage growth is highlighted with recommendations for Eastroc Beverage and Nongfu Spring, alongside low valuation stocks like China Foods and Tingyi [5][16]. - Snack and food ingredient stocks recommended include Bailong Chuangyuan, Yankershop Food, and Three Squirrels [5][16]. - Beer recommendations include Yanjing Brewery and Tsingtao Brewery, while condiment stocks like Haitian Flavoring & Food are also suggested [5][16]. Baijiu Sector Insights - The baijiu sector is experiencing a significant adjustment, with industry destocking still in progress and a focus on promotional sales for 2026 [7][16]. - Recent sales data from JD.com shows a +18% year-on-year increase in liquor sales during the Double 11 shopping festival, indicating a positive market response [7][16]. Consumer Goods Outlook - Consumer goods are expected to see growth as the mainline, with structural differentiation evident in beverages, snacks, and health products [8][16]. - The report notes that companies with product innovation and channel expansion will have growth advantages, particularly in the context of recent service and non-food price recoveries [8][16].

Group 1 - The food ETF (515710) showed weak performance with a decline of 0.32% and a trading volume of 54.66 million yuan as of November 17 [1] - Leading stocks in the food sector included Tianwei Food, Lianhua Holdings, and Kweichow Moutai, with increases of 2.06%, 1.37%, and 0.65% respectively [1] - Conversely, Dongpeng Beverage, Yunnan Energy Investment, and Yanghe Distillery experienced declines of 3.02%, 2.34%, and 2.33% respectively [1] Group 2 - The white liquor industry is undergoing a destocking phase, with expectations of recovery in demand and economic revival by Q4 2025 [2] - The trend towards healthier snacks is evident, with categories like konjac continuing to benefit, and leading companies are expected to gain from this trend [2] - The dairy product demand is gradually recovering, with raw milk prices potentially stabilizing [2] Group 3 - The food ETF and its linked funds passively track a segmented food index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yanghe Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in stock price and financial performance, with significant decreases in revenue and net profit year-on-year, indicating potential challenges in the market [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, Yanghe Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 18.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.26% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.98 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 53.66% [2]. - The company's stock price has dropped 13.24% year-to-date, with a 4.35% decline over the past five trading days [1]. Stock Market Activity - On November 17, the stock price fell by 2.06%, trading at 68.44 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 103.10 billion yuan [1]. - The net outflow of main funds was 24.77 million yuan, with significant selling pressure observed [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 13.97% to 164,100, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 16.24% to 9,180 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 56.34 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 19.66 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable entities such as the China Securities Finance Corporation and various ETFs, with changes in their holdings indicating shifts in institutional interest [3].

Core Insights - The overall retail price of major products in the Chinese liquor industry remains stable, with some brands experiencing price increases [1] Price Changes - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ saw a price increase of 6 yuan per bottle, marking its third consecutive day of price rise [1] - Xijiu Junpin increased by 4 yuan per bottle, continuing its second day of growth [1] - Qinghua Fen 20 and Shuijing Jian'nanchun both experienced a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [1] - Guizhou Moutai Feitian's price decreased slightly by 1 yuan per bottle [1] Price Table Summary - Guizhou Moutai Feitian (53°/500ml) priced at 1840 yuan, down by 1 yuan [3] - Wuliangye Pu Wu 8th generation (52°/500ml) priced at 863 yuan, down by 470 yuan [3] - Qinghua Fen 20 (53°/500ml) priced at 382 yuan, up by 1 yuan [3] - Guojiao 1573 (52°/500ml) priced at 878 yuan, unchanged [3] - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ (52°/550ml) priced at 578 yuan [3] - Xijiu Junpin (52°/500ml) priced at 658 yuan [3]

Group 1 - The overall retail price of major Chinese liquor brands has increased, with leading products like Moutai and Yanghe experiencing significant price hikes of 5 CNY and 8 CNY per bottle respectively [1] - The valuation of the liquor sector is currently at a relatively low level, with the food and beverage index at the 17th percentile and the liquor index at the 23rd percentile since 2005 [1] - The combined dividend yield of liquor stocks has reached 3.74%, outperforming the 2.54% and 2.21% yields of the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index respectively [1] Group 2 - The second quarter of 2026 is expected to stabilize, with a potential turning point in the third quarter as inventory clears and demand recovers, leading to a rebound in wholesale prices [2] - Yanghe Co. is recognized as a major national liquor producer, owning two famous Chinese liquor brands, Yanghe and Shuangguo [3] - Shui Jing Fang is noted as a well-known high-end liquor brand in China, representing a typical example of strong aroma liquor [4]

Summary of Conference Call on Dairy and Beverage Industry Industry Overview - The dairy industry is experiencing a continuous capacity reduction, with expectations for supply-demand balance improvement by mid to late 2026, leading to potential stabilization in milk prices. As of October, milk prices remained stable at 2.94 yuan per kilogram, with a production loss of approximately 0.2 yuan per kilogram and a loss rate of about 5% [2][2][2]. Key Points on Dairy Companies New Dairy Industry - New Dairy reported a strong performance in October, continuing the trend from Q3, with double-digit growth in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt. The company is expanding into new channels, achieving significant revenue from collaborations, and is expected to meet its profit margin targets ahead of schedule by 2026 [4][4][4]. Mengniu Dairy - Mengniu's Q3 results met expectations, with stable market share following price reductions on its flagship product. The company anticipates stable revenue and profit margin growth through 2026, with a relatively low valuation providing investment flexibility [5][5][5]. Yili Group - Despite weak overall demand, Yili's low-temperature milk and other segments showed positive growth, with low-temperature white milk exceeding 20% growth. The company is expected to stabilize its liquid milk business by 2026, benefiting from diversified product offerings and channels [6][7][6][7]. Miao Ke Lan Duo and Youran Dairy - Miao Ke Lan Duo is experiencing rapid growth in the B-end market, with significant C-end product launches. The company is expanding its deep processing of dairy products, which is expected to improve profitability. Youran Dairy is increasing fresh milk supply with stable prices, supporting profits, and is projected to enhance profitability further with a reduction in livestock numbers [8][8][8]. Beverage Industry Insights Master Kong - Master Kong's beverage business saw a slight decline in Q3, but the drop has narrowed in October. The company expects to stabilize its beverage business next year, with a focus on promotional activities and potential price adjustments for its one-liter products [9][10][9][10]. Nongfu Spring - Nongfu Spring's water business experienced double-digit growth in October, with its sugar-free tea brand capturing nearly 80% market share. The company is expected to maintain steady revenue and profit growth, making it a strong long-term investment choice [10][10][10]. Dongpeng Beverage - Dongpeng Beverage reported a nearly 30% growth rate, with ambitious annual targets. The company shows significant growth potential from a valuation perspective [10][10][10]. Investment Recommendations - The dairy sector is recommended for investment due to expected improvements in profitability and market conditions by 2026. Companies like Mengniu, Yili, and New Dairy are highlighted for their growth potential and stable valuations [5][7][4][4]. - In the beverage sector, Master Kong and Nongfu Spring are noted for their resilience and growth prospects, making them attractive investment options [9][10][10].

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨洋河股份（002304.SZ） [Table_Title] 洋河股份 2025 年三季报点评：主动纾压，静待 改善 [Table_Author] 董思远 徐爽 朱梦兰 石智坤 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490520030001 SAC：S0490522050003 SAC：S0490522090002 SFC：BQK487 SFC：BVF934 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 洋河股份发布 2025 年三季报：公司 2025 年前三季度实现营业收入 180.90 亿元，同比下降 34.26%；归属于上市公司股东净利润 39.75 亿元，同比下降 53.66%。2025 年单三季度实现营 业收入 32.95 亿元，同比下降 29.01%；归属于上市公司股东净利润-3.69 亿元，同比下降 158.38%。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_scodeMsg2] 洋河股份（002304.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 洋河股份 2025 2] ...

Core Insights - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 1.2% on November 14, with Gujing Gongjiu leading the drop [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, down 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13216.03, down 1.93% [1] Liquor Sector Performance - Gujing Gongjiu's stock price fell by 2.95% to 161.60, with a trading volume of 30,700 shares and a transaction value of 503 million [2] - Luzhou Laojiao decreased by 2.58% to 139.62, with a trading volume of 94,700 shares and a transaction value of 1.345 billion [2] - The overall liquor sector saw a net outflow of 978 million from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 487 million [2][3] Individual Stock Movements - Major stocks like Moutai and Wuliangye also experienced declines, with Moutai down 0.94% to 1456.60 and Wuliangye down 0.82% to 120.21 [1] - The stock of Shunxin Agriculture fell by 0.38% to 15.92, with a trading volume of 79,700 shares [1] - The net inflow from retail investors was notable in stocks like Jinzhongzi Liquor, which saw a net inflow of 966.04 million despite a decline in major funds [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the liquor industry, specifically for companies like Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu [4]. Core Insights - The liquor industry serves as an economic lubricant, with its revenue growth closely aligned with GDP growth and the sales expenses of A-share listed companies [2]. - Long-term price trends for Moutai are expected to fluctuate around one-third of urban residents' average disposable income, indicating a strong correlation between consumer purchasing power and liquor prices [2]. - Short-term demand for liquor reflects economic fluctuations and expectations, with product prices closely related to macroeconomic indicators such as PPI and excavator sales [3]. Summary by Sections Economic Indicators and Liquor Demand - The liquor industry is influenced by macroeconomic indicators, with PPI, excavator sales, and industrial profits reflecting business consumption demand, while CPI and disposable income indicate consumer purchasing needs [1]. - The correlation between liquor demand and economic activity suggests that tracking forward-looking indicators can provide insights into price and performance expectations [1]. Long-term and Short-term Price Dynamics - Moutai's price is expected to rise steadily within a reasonable range of residents' income levels, with historical data showing a strong relationship between Moutai prices and disposable income [2]. - In the short term, liquor prices are expected to respond to economic conditions, with a notable correlation between Moutai's wholesale price and PPI trends [3]. Investment Recommendations - As of mid-November, the wholesale price of Moutai is around 1,660 RMB, down 25% year-on-year, indicating a potential bottoming signal for the sector [3]. - Recommended stocks for investment include stable performers like Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Guizhou Moutai, with a focus on companies that have long-term growth potential [3].

Core Points - The company was awarded the title of "2025 Green Manufacturing Benchmark Enterprise" at the "Light Industry Technology Innovation and Green Development Conference" held in Nanjing [1] - The company's "Digital Smart Energy Management Technology for Liquor Enterprises" was included in the "Directory of Advanced Technologies for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction in Key Areas of Light Industry (2025 Edition)" [1] Group 1 - The selection of green manufacturing benchmark enterprises is organized by the China Light Industry Federation to promote the green low-carbon transformation of the industry and establish leading enterprises in green development [1] - The evaluation process included self-assessment by enterprises, targeted recommendations, expert reviews, and comprehensive recognition [1] Group 2 - The company adheres to the green development philosophy and actively promotes the "1257" dual carbon strategy, increasing investment in energy conservation and environmental protection [3] - The company has achieved significant results in new technology research, energy structure optimization, water resource protection, and resource recycling [3] Group 3 - The company has established the first zero-carbon workshop in the liquor industry and has been certified through a carbon management system [4] - The company was recognized as a leader in carbon peak by being included in the 2024 list of China's industrial carbon peak leaders and has received honors as an ESG demonstration enterprise [4] - The company has developed a carbon neutrality practice path suitable for the Chinese liquor industry, setting a benchmark for the industry's green low-carbon transformation [4]