环球市场动态 日 银 如 期 维 持 利 率 不 变 股 票 周五中国市场震荡升高，商业航天 板块再度爆发，大盘股仍承压；欧 洲股市涨跌不一，科技与国防板块 仍是市场焦点；美股企稳，特朗普 政治担忧告一段落，市场重新聚焦 重点企业财报。 外 汇 / 商 品 上周五日元兑美元逼近 160关口后 强劲反弹，创下去年 8 月以来最大 单日涨幅；市场认为日本可能出手 稳定汇率，且不排除获得美方罕见 协助，今早亚洲盘美元兑日元下跌 0.7%王 154.7 水平，现货黄金突破 5,080 美元，现货白银突破 108 美 元，同创历史高位。 固 定 收 益 上周日本债券收益率飙升、扰乱全 球固定收益市场之后，市场再次将 焦点转回美元与日上。美国国债上 周五跟随日债收涨，收益率下降 1- 2 个基点。受英国德国 PMI 推动， 欧债收益率普遍上涨。市场关注地 缘政治紧张局势，美债今天开盘小 幅上涨。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2026 年 1 月 26 日 ▪ 日银今年 1 月如期维持政策利率不变，上调 2025-2026 两财年的增长预测 ...

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector continues to experience a downturn, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a decline of 1.39% as of the latest report [1][2] - Major stocks in the sector, particularly in the liquor category, have seen significant drops, with Yanghe Distillery falling nearly 9% and other brands like Gujinggongjiu and Shuiwangfang dropping over 2% [1][2] - The recent performance reflects broader market trends, indicating a challenging environment for the food and beverage industry [1][3] Group 2 - The addition of new shipping warehouses in Nanjing and Beijing by "i Moutai" is a strategic response to increased order volumes and winter logistics challenges, enhancing customer experience [3] - The food and beverage sector's valuation is currently at a historical low, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 19.39, suggesting a potential opportunity for investment [3][4] - Analysts predict a market trend where sectors like snacks and dairy are favored due to clear growth prospects, while the liquor sector is expected to stabilize as demand increases with the upcoming Spring Festival [3][4] Group 3 - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) is heavily invested in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with significant allocations to brands like Moutai and Yili [4] - The ETF provides a way for investors to gain exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector, with a focus on high-quality stocks [4][5] - Recent reports suggest that the liquor industry is showing signs of weak recovery, with potential for valuation improvement as economic conditions gradually enhance [4]

展望后市，中信建投指出，从月度数据与市场表现来看，跨年行情或呈现"成长先行、白酒蓄力"的鲜明 特征。当前市场资金更倾向于布局零食、乳业等景气度明确、弹性更高的赛道，这类板块在政策支持与 产业趋势共振下，月度数据持续改善，成为跨年行情的核心驱动力。而白酒板块则处于"磨底蓄力"阶 段，随着春节临近，终端备货需求逐步启动，近期头部酒企批价企稳、库存回落的边际变化已开始显 现，预计春节后随着消费场景修复与需求集中释放，白酒或将迎来估值修复行情。 1月26日，吃喝板块继续回调，反映吃喝板块整体走势的食品饮料ETF华宝（515710）开盘后震荡下 行，截至发稿，场内价格跌1.39%。 成份股方面，白酒跌幅居前。截至发稿，洋河股份大跌近9%，古井贡酒、水井坊、金徽酒、酒鬼酒等 多股跌超2%，拖累板块走势。 | | | 分财 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 更多 | | | | | | F9 盘前盘新 盘加 九种 图纸 工具 (0 2 | | 食品饮料ETF华室 ① | | 515710 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在1月26日呈弱 势分化。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为8889元，较昨日下跌4元。市场在经历结构 性调整后，终端均价波动收窄，多数核心单品延续振荡走势，显示行业仍处于再平衡阶段。今日市场四涨 五跌一平。上涨端，青花郎领涨11元/瓶，已连续四天走升；五粮液与梦之蓝M6+分别上涨4元/瓶、3元/瓶 形成腰部支撑；青花汾20微涨1元/瓶。下跌端，精品茅台回调8元/瓶；习酒君品和古井贡古20均下跌5元/ 瓶；飞天茅台受i茅台平台常态化供应影响，环比下跌4元/瓶；国窖1573微跌1元/瓶；水晶剑南春价格与昨 日持平。 | 中国知名白酒大单品 圈 | 市场真实成交终端价 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品名/规格 | 今日价格(元) | 較昨日(元) | | 贵州茅台酒 (飞天) | 1647/瓶 | -4元 | | 53度/500ml | | | | 贵州茅台酒(精品) | 2348/瓶 | -8元 | | 53度/500ml | | | | 五粮液普五八代 | 806/瓶 | 4元▲ | | 52度 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, particularly on premium brands like Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also highlighting the potential of other brands such as Wuliangye and Jinjing Wine [2][7]. Core Insights - The liquor market is undergoing a restructuring phase, with expectations of a double-digit decline in sales year-on-year for Q1 2026, but a potential stabilization in Q2 and a turning point in Q3 [2][7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the liquor sector by the end of 2026 and into 2027, driven by improved fundamentals and valuation [2][7]. - The consumer goods sector is showing structural improvements, with competition shifting from price to quality, leading to a gradual balance in supply and demand [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.41% last week, with liquor down 2.80%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.25 percentage points [6]. - Notable stock performances included a 19.59% increase for Haoxiangni and a 14.32% rise for Wancheng Group [6]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report highlights the price stability of Moutai, with a current price of 1560 RMB per bottle, up 20 RMB from the previous week, indicating a positive trend in pricing [8][27]. - The report notes that Moutai's pricing has found a bottom, reducing downward risks significantly, and anticipates a potential increase in sales volume as the Spring Festival approaches [8]. 3. Industry Events and Updates - The report mentions the upcoming IPO of Mingming Hen Mang, a leading snack retail chain, which is expected to catalyze the snack sector [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain management and digitalization in enhancing competitive advantages for companies like Mingming Hen Mang [10]. 4. Valuation Table - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is currently at 19.27x, with a premium rate of 10%, while the liquor sector's dynamic PE stands at 17.50x, indicating a zero premium [27].

当下白酒行业正经历深度调整的"寒冬"：动销疲软、利润下滑、库存高企，国家统计局数据显示，2025 年1月至10月，中国白酒产量为290.2万千升，较去年同期下降11.5%。量、价、利齐跌的态势印证了行 业系统性调整的严峻性。 在这场存量绞杀与出清浪潮中，洋河股份并未陷入被动承压，而是凭借数十年积淀的70万吨原酒硬实 力，以品质为矛、以变革为盾，在行业底部构筑起差异化竞争壁垒，为2026年发展之路积蓄了充足底 气。 穿越寒冬的品质硬实力 在白酒行业，"酒是陈的香"从来不是一句口号，而是历经市场检验的行业铁律。当下行业洗牌加速，原 酒储备的战略价值被推至前所未有的高度，而这正是洋河穿越周期、筑牢竞争壁垒的核心底气，更是其 最深厚的品质护城河。 为什么这份原酒储备同行难以复制？因为它是自然禀赋与时光积淀的双重结晶。宿迁产区的生态优势孕 育了独特酿酒微生物群落，百年窖池的微生物积淀赋予原酒独特风味，再加上数十年持续储酒的战略定 力，三者叠加形成的稀缺资产，既非短期投入可实现，也难以通过外购基酒复刻，最终成为洋河以品质 硬实力立足行业的核心护城河。 当下多重因素叠加导致行业竞争加剧，中小酒企因原酒不足收缩产能、妥协品质 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Australian wine market is reshaping the Chinese imported wine market after a year and a half of absence, with a significant initial increase in imports followed by a decline in sales due to inventory issues and economic pressures [2] - The low-alcohol beverage category is rapidly growing, appealing to younger consumers, but faces challenges such as brand homogenization and declining repurchase rates [2] - The white liquor industry is experiencing a shift in market dynamics, with top brands competing fiercely and some companies facing their first quarterly negative growth in nearly a decade [4] - New beverage products are emerging, with brands like Xiaojin Wine and Guoli Fang successfully capturing market share through innovative approaches [5] - The industry is expected to return to rationality in 2026, focusing on consumer needs and product quality, while smaller companies may face elimination [6] Industry Environment - The Australian wine market is seeing a resurgence in China due to the removal of anti-dumping taxes, but initial sales have not met expectations, leading to inventory issues and price reductions [2] - The low-alcohol market is projected to grow from 20 billion yuan in 2020 to 57 billion yuan by 2024, but faces challenges in brand differentiation and consumer loyalty [2] - The white liquor market is undergoing structural changes, with companies like Shanxi Fenjiu surpassing others in revenue, indicating a competitive landscape [4] - The introduction of innovative products is crucial for the industry's transformation, with a focus on low-alcohol and health-oriented offerings [5] - The industry is moving towards a more rational approach, emphasizing product quality and consumer experience, as it transitions from a bubble phase to a healthier growth period [6] Top Brand Dynamics - Guizhou Zhenjiu is upgrading its "Dazhen" product to enhance quality and market positioning, aiming to compete with top brands like Moutai [8] - Wuliangchun is celebrating its 30th anniversary with a marketing campaign that deepens emotional connections with consumers [9] - Xifengjiu is focusing on quality and cultural empowerment to drive its revival in the competitive white liquor market [10] - Moutai is launching a new product structure to meet diverse consumer needs and stabilize its market presence [14] - Niulanshan is evolving its product strategy to maintain its position in the mass market while enhancing emotional connections with consumers [18]

新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在1月25日迎来 结构性回升。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为8893元，较昨日上涨20元，并创下近五 日新高。市场在前期小幅盘整后，终端均价呈现阶段性修复，但核心单品走势持续分化，显示行业仍处于 结构性调整阶段。 今日市场呈现六涨四跌的分化格局。上涨产品中，精品茅台环比上涨16元一马当先，五 粮液普五八代上涨10元，均为支撑均价上行的主要动力；国窖1573上行6元/瓶；青花郎上涨4元/瓶；洋河 梦之蓝M6+与水晶剑南春均微涨1元/瓶，走势平稳。下跌产品方面，习酒君品下跌6元/瓶；青花汾20下跌5 元/瓶；飞天茅台受i茅台平台常态化供应影响，终端价格承压，环比微跌4元/瓶；古井贡古20下跌3元/瓶， 整体波动幅度收窄。 | 中国知名白酒大单品 | 市场真实成交终端价 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品名/规格 | 今日价格(元) | 较昨日(元) | | 贵州茅台酒 (飞天) | 1651/瓶 | -4元 | | 53度/500ml | | | | 贵州茅台酒 (精品) | 2356/瓶 | 1 ...

【导读】洋河股份公布现金分红回报规划（2025年度-2027年度） 中国基金报记者郑俊婷 1月23日晚间，洋河股份（证券代码：002304）连发3条重要公告，分别指向2025年业绩预告、现金分红回报规划、高管人事调整。 其中，现金分红回报规划尤为引人注目。洋河股份表示，在满足《公司章程》利润分配政策的前提下，2025年度-2027年度，公司每年度现金分红总额不 低于当年实现归母净利润的100%。 2025年第四季度减亏 根据业绩预告，洋河股份预计2025年实现归母净利润21.16亿元-25.24亿元，同比下降62.18%-68.30%。 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 股东的净利润 | 盈利: 211,578 万元-252,356 万元 | 盈利:667,338.86 万元 | | | 比上年同期下降:62.18%-68.30% | | | 扣除非经常性损 益后的净利润 | 盈利: 185,318 万元-226,096 万元 | 盈利:683,523.56 万元 | | | 比上年同期下降:66.92%-72.89% | | | 基本每股收 ...

2025 年第四季度减亏 根据业绩预告， 洋河股份 预计 2025 年实现归母净利润 21.16 亿元 -25.24 亿元，同比下 降 62.18%-68.30% 。 【导读】洋河股份公布 现金分红回报规划（ 2025 年度 -2027 年度） 中国基金报记者 郑俊婷 1 月 23 日晚间， 洋 河股 份（证券代码： 0 0230 4 ）连发 3 条重要公告，分别指向 2025 年业绩预告、现金分红回报规划、高管人事调整。 其中，现金分红回报规划尤为引人注目。洋河股份表示，在满足《公司章程》利润分配政策 的前提下， 2025 年度 -2027 年度，公司每年度现金分红总额不低于当年实现归母净利润的 100% 。 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 股东的净利润 | 盈利: 211,578 万元-252,356 万元 | 盈利:667,338.86 万元 | | | 比上年同期下降:62.18%-68.30% | | | 扣除非经常性损 益后的净利润 | 盈利: 185,318 万元-226,096 万元 | 盈利:683,523.56 万元 | ...