Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing significant transformation in 2025, facing challenges such as high channel inventory and weak terminal sales, while also experiencing new opportunities driven by changing policies, consumption patterns, and scenarios [2][3] - The market is seeing a shift towards product innovation targeting younger consumers, with low-alcohol beverages and fruit-flavored wines becoming popular among Generation Z [2] - The industry is also accelerating its international expansion, moving from product export to cultural export, as domestic growth slows [2] Price Trends - The retail prices of liquor in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area have shown a clear trend of "overall decline, weak peak seasons, and increasing differentiation" [4][6] - Over half of the monitored products in the Bay Area have experienced price declines, including high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a significant pressure on the price points [6][10] - The price of high-end products has collectively "cooled down," with many products in the 1,000 yuan price range facing substantial pressure, leading to a significant gap between listed and actual transaction prices [6][10] Regional Analysis - In Guangzhou, the liquor market has continued to show price declines and frequent fluctuations, reflecting a deepening adjustment trend [8][9] - Shenzhen's liquor prices have shown stability in offline channels, acting as a "price ballast," while online channels have seen significant price drops [12][15] - In Foshan, the price trends are characterized by a "two-tier" differentiation, with stable products maintaining their prices while others experience significant volatility [16][17] - Dongguan's liquor market has shown structural differentiation in price trends, with high-end products under pressure and mid-range products adopting flexible pricing strategies [19][21] Market Dynamics - The collective price adjustments in the Bay Area are driven by a combination of macroeconomic pressures, industry cycles, and channel transformations [22][23] - The current market pressure stems from a cooling demand for consumption, particularly in business and banquet settings, alongside a shift in consumer preferences [22] - The evolution of channels, particularly the rise of instant retail platforms, has increased price transparency and intensified competition among channels [23] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "low-price" trend in the short term, with the upcoming Spring Festival being a focal point for potential sales recovery [24] - However, significant price rebounds are unlikely until consumer confidence is restored and channel inventories are effectively reduced [24] - The industry is likely to see a shift from price wars to competition based on brand strength, product innovation, and refined channel management [24]

中国银河（601881）证券发布研报称，12月食品饮料指数有所回调，判断主要原因为中秋错期导致11月 度动销数据环比略有放缓，以及2026年春节备货期较晚或导致Q4报表端收入增速面临一定压力。板块 内部来看，零食、调味品与预加工食品指数实现小幅正收益。展望2026年，该行仍然维持此前判断，新 消费仍具持续性但内部将会轮动，而传统消费有望迎来底部改善。 头部酒企定调2026年战略，逆周期调节与长期变革并行 截至2025年12月23日，食品饮料行业跌幅3.1%，相对于全A指数的超额收益为-4.9%，在31个子行业中 排名第28，排名相较于11月有所下降。半数子板块上涨，其中零食、调味发酵品、预加工食品涨幅靠 前，分别为+3.6%、+3.0%、+2.6%。 1)逆周期调节，主要酒企均提到短期行业将持续面临周期下行的客观压力，因此将维护价格体系、稳定 渠道利润空间视为重点工作，具体措施包括大力发展高渠道利润率的大单品、加大费用投放提升经销商 积极性。2)推进长期变革，一是需求端继续培育新产业（300832）客群、年轻客群;二是产品端开发符 合新消费趋势的产品(例如茅台省属配方酒、五粮液（000858）低度酒、汾酒竹叶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a shift in the zodiac liquor market for the Year of the Horse in 2026, with a notable decrease in enthusiasm compared to previous years, indicating a more rational approach from companies amidst industry adjustments and changing consumer perceptions [5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major liquor companies, including Wuliangye, Yanghe, and Luzhou Laojiao, have launched zodiac liquor products for the Year of the Horse, but the market appears less vibrant than in previous years [3][4]. - The number of companies participating in the zodiac liquor market is expected to decrease by at least 30% compared to previous years, as the market becomes dominated by leading brands, raising entry barriers [6][9]. - The market is transitioning from a speculative investment focus to a cultural consumption perspective, driven by changing consumer attitudes and a need for differentiation in product offerings [7][8]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing taste and gifting scenarios over investment potential, indicating a shift back to the core values of consumption [8][9]. - The demand for unique and culturally rich products is rising, as consumers show signs of fatigue towards homogenized designs and offerings in the zodiac liquor market [9][10]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The zodiac liquor market faces challenges such as product homogenization, supply-demand imbalances, and the risk of value bubbles, necessitating deeper cultural engagement and innovation from companies [9][10]. - Companies are encouraged to develop strong cultural narratives and product matrices to establish independent value systems and consumer bases, moving away from reliance on leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic liquor industry is actively launching zodiac-themed products for the upcoming Year of the Horse in 2026, but the market appears less enthusiastic compared to previous years, indicating a shift in consumer sentiment and market dynamics [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Activity - Major liquor companies such as Wuliangye, Yanghe, and Luzhou Laojiao have already released their zodiac-themed products for 2026, with various pricing strategies and limited editions [3][4]. - Specific product launches include Tianyoude's limited edition of 1,000 bottles, Luzhou Laojiao's offerings priced at 888 yuan, and Wuliangye's zodiac liquor debuting on JD.com [3][4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The zodiac liquor market is experiencing a "cooling down" phase, contrasting sharply with the previous years' frenzy of new product launches and market excitement [4][6]. - A significant reduction in the number of companies participating in the zodiac liquor market is anticipated, with estimates suggesting a decrease of at least 30% compared to previous years [4][5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The previous investment and collectible appeal of zodiac liquors is diminishing, as consumers are now prioritizing taste and gifting scenarios over speculative value [6][7]. - The shift in consumer demand is pushing the zodiac liquor market to refocus on cultural and emotional values rather than purely investment-driven motives [7][8]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - The zodiac liquor market faces challenges such as product homogenization, supply-demand imbalances, and the risk of value bubbles [8][9]. - Companies need to innovate beyond simple design replication and engage in deeper cultural storytelling and regional integration to differentiate their products [8][9]. Group 5: Future Directions - The future success of zodiac liquors will depend on companies' abilities to develop long-term capabilities, including cultural narrative, direct consumer engagement, pricing strategies, and product lifecycle management [9][10]. - Emphasizing cultural significance and scarcity will be crucial for achieving market success in the evolving landscape of the zodiac liquor market [10].

随着2026年农历丙午马年的脚步临近，中国白酒行业的"赛马场"已率先热闹起来。12月24日，北京商报 记者统计发现，目前包括五粮液、洋河股份、泸州老窖在内的多家酒企均已在不同渠道发布2026年农历 丙午马年生肖酒产品。尽管诸多酒企针对生肖酒市场推出新品，但相较于往年而言却略显"冷清"。 生肖酒市场在年末上演"固定戏码"，其背后是文化、收藏、社交与投资等多重价值的交织。如今，在行 业处于深度调整期与消费理念更迭的共同交织下，这场没有硝烟的"酒马大战"或将面临新挑战。 开赛即"降温" 一匹骏马，从文化图腾变身为瓶身艺术撬动价值数百亿的收藏市场。北京商报记者统计发现，目前包括 五粮液、洋河股份、古井贡酒等头部企业均抢先发布2026年农历丙午马年生肖酒产品。 10月，天佑德马年生肖纪念酒正式上市，限量1000坛；泸州老窖推出"泸州老窖2026农历丙午马年礼 酒"（规格1.2L，优惠价888元）和定位高端的"国窖1573定制酒马青云"（规格1.573L，券后价5888元） 两款产品。11月，舍得酒业推出马年生肖酒限量10万盒，官方标价598元；剑南春携手中国国家博物馆 推出限量3万瓶的丙午马年生肖纪念酒，定价1099元 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is experiencing systemic opportunities driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and increasing residents' income levels, which are expected to enhance consumption capabilities [1][2] - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with expectations of entering an EPS killing phase by 2025, while high-end liquor brands like Moutai and Lao Jiao are recommended for investment [1][4] - The dairy industry has completed supply-demand adjustments, with anticipated increases in demand for milk powder and liquid milk due to fertility and income policies, highlighting companies like Yili and New Dairy as potential recovery opportunities [1][5] - The snack food sector is benefiting from the "lipstick effect," new channels, and health trends, with recommendations for companies such as Salted Fish, Wei Long, Wan Chen Food, and Qiaqia Food [1][6] - The beverage sector is seeing a clear trend towards health, with non-traditional channels gaining market share, making high-growth companies like Dongpeng Beverage noteworthy [1][7] Key Insights and Arguments - The central economic work conference in 2026 will prioritize expanding domestic demand, which is expected to lead to a series of policies stimulating consumption, positively impacting the food and beverage industry [2] - The food and beverage sector has faced significant changes in volume, price, and channel structure over the past six years, with varying performances across sub-sectors [3] - The liquor sector is expected to see marginal improvements in 2026, driven by policies aimed at boosting business and government consumption [4] - The dairy sector is projected to enter a recovery phase, with increased demand anticipated due to supportive policies [5] - The snack food market is expected to gradually recover, supported by rising incomes and new retail channels [6] Additional Important Content - Cost fluctuations are a significant factor affecting the performance of consumer goods companies, with some agricultural product costs declining, providing investment opportunities [9] - The planting area for sunflower seeds is expected to recover, leading to a projected 10% decrease in the cost of sunflower seeds, which will positively impact Qiaqia Food's gross margin [10][11] - The konjac market is facing supply-demand imbalances, with high prices expected to ease in 2026, alleviating cost pressures for companies like Wei Long and Salted Fish [12] - The sugar molasses market is currently at low prices, providing strong support for Angel Yeast's profitability [13] - Innovative companies are leveraging product and channel innovations to drive growth, with notable examples including Nongfu Spring and Uni-President [14] - Efficient supply chain management is crucial for companies, with Dongpeng Beverage demonstrating strong performance in this area [15] Future Outlook - Dongpeng Beverage is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2026 through strategic measures and product innovations [16] - Wan Chen is enhancing store quality and accelerating store openings, which is expected to improve profitability in the snack food sector [17][18] - Hai Tian Flavoring has implemented efficiency improvements under new management, resulting in revenue and profit growth exceeding industry averages [19] - The restaurant industry is expected to see a mild recovery, with companies like Yihai International and Tianhe Flavoring showing potential for improvement [20][21] - In the liquor sector, companies like Yanghe and Budweiser are expected to benefit from product and channel improvements, leading to potential breakthroughs in performance [22][23][25] - Gan Yuan Food is focusing on expanding e-commerce and high-end membership stores, with a stable development outlook [26][27] - Overall, companies in the food and beverage sector are expected to experience gradual recovery and growth, making them worthy of investor attention [28]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is entering a phase of rapid performance clearing, with expectations of a weak recovery in demand as policy pressures ease and consumption expansion policies take effect [1] Industry Summary - The three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3940.95 points, up 0.53% [1] - The liquor sector closed at 2196.49 points, with a slight increase of 0.18%, although 13 liquor stocks experienced declines [1] - The current industry valuation is low, and pessimistic expectations are fully priced in, indicating a clearer direction for industry clearing and a more defined bottom [1] Company Summary - Kweichow Moutai (600519) closed at 1400.90 CNY per share, down 0.49% [1] - Wuliangye (000858) closed at 109.28 CNY per share, down 0.40% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) closed at 175.60 CNY per share, down 0.96% [1] - Luzhou Laojiao (000568) closed at 119.94 CNY per share, down 0.38% [1] - Yanghe Brewery (002304) closed at 62.10 CNY per share, down 0.06% [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market has seen a significant increase in the retail prices of its top ten products, indicating a strong festive consumption atmosphere [1][2] - The overall price for a bundled sale of these ten products reached 9131 yuan, marking a daily increase of 56 yuan, the highest single-day rise recently [1] - The market is experiencing a broad upward trend driven by holiday demand, with premium products like Moutai leading the price increases [1][2] Price Movements - Moutai's premium product price increased by 32 yuan per bottle, reflecting strong demand for high-end gifts and banquet needs ahead of the holidays [1][2] - Other notable price changes include: - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ up by 11 yuan per bottle - Gujing Tribute Wine up by 7 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Lang and Xijiu Junpin up by 6 yuan and 5 yuan per bottle respectively, with Qinghua Lang achieving three consecutive days of price increases [1] - Some products experienced minor price adjustments, such as Wuliangye down by 5 yuan and Feitian Moutai down by 3 yuan [1] Market Dynamics - The surge in Moutai prices is linked to recent news about the company's "quantity control" measures, which have led to a reduction in the supply of non-standard products by 30%-50% [2] - There is a noted shortage of certain Moutai products, leading to increased market speculation and consumer purchasing behavior, further driving up prices as the double festival approaches [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market has seen a significant increase in the retail prices of the top ten products, indicating a strong festive consumption atmosphere, with the total price for a packaged set reaching 9131 yuan, up 56 yuan from the previous day, marking a recent single-day high in price increase [1][6][7] Price Movements - The price of premium Moutai increased by 32 yuan per bottle, leading the market surge, reflecting strong demand for high-end gifts and banquet needs ahead of the holidays [7] - Other notable price increases include: - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: up 11 yuan per bottle - Gujing Gong 20: up 7 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Lang: up 6 yuan per bottle - Xijiu Junpin: up 5 yuan per bottle - Guojiao 1573 and Shuijing Jian Nan Chun: both up 2 yuan per bottle [7][9] - Some products experienced minor price adjustments, with Wuliangye Pu 58th generation down 5 yuan, Feitian Moutai down 3 yuan, and Qinghua Fen 20 down 1 yuan, which are considered normal fluctuations [7] Market Dynamics - The data for the "Liquor Price Reference" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide objective and traceable market price data [2][7] - The recent price surge for premium Moutai is linked to supply control measures announced by the company, which have led to a reduction in the availability of non-standard products by 30%-50%, creating a sense of scarcity and driving up prices as demand increases during the holiday season [2][7]

Group 1 - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.3% on December 23, with Huangtai Liquor leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3919.98, up 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13368.99, up 0.27% [1] - Notable individual stock performances include ST Yanshi with a closing price of 3.62, up 4.93%, and Kweichow Moutai at 1407.86, down 0.03% [1] Group 2 - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 743 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 418 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for major liquor stocks varied, with Wuliangye recording a transaction amount of 1.248 billion yuan and Luzhou Laojiao at 866 million yuan [1][2] - The stock performance of various companies showed a downward trend, with notable declines in shares such as Shede Liquor down 1.39% and Gujing Gongjiu down 1.35% [2] Group 3 - The main fund inflow and outflow data indicates that ST Yanshi had a net inflow of 5.177 million yuan, while Yilite experienced a significant outflow of 5.646 million yuan [3] - The data reflects a mixed sentiment among investors, with retail investors showing a positive net inflow in several stocks despite the overall sector decline [3] - The analysis of fund flows highlights the varying investor interest, with some stocks like Laobai Ganjiu seeing a net outflow of 12.036 million yuan from main funds [3]