2025 年 05 月 25 日 茅台定海神针稳，新消费延续高景气度 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 食品饮料(申万) 0.4 5.8 -7.0 沪深 300 2.5 -1.1 7.8 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业周报：关注茅台 股东大会，小食品持续向好》2025- 05-19 2、《食品饮料行业周报：降息"靴 子落地"，利好市场情绪提振》 2025-05-11 3、《食品饮料行业周报：年报季顺 利收官，五一白酒需求符合预期》 2025-05-06 ▌ 一周新闻速递 行业新闻：1）贵州公示 6.6 亿元酒类投资项目；2） 1-4 月 贵州酒饮茶工业增加值增长 4.7%；3） 1-4 月葡萄酒进口额 增长超 26%； 公司新闻 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 关注渠道和品类红利，继续推荐劲仔食品 ——食饮行业周报（2025 年 5 月第 3 期） 投资要点 食饮观点：当前食饮板块关注"食品板块品类红利"、"零食企业会员商超 等新渠道驱动"、"保健品新热点"等三方面的新消费投资机会，传统消费 优选业绩见底有望向上标的。我们维持此前强调的"在内需避风港钓鱼"观 点，并强调该阶段应该重点布局行业龙头个股；白酒板块 2025 年或为新旧 周期转换年，关注基本面业绩较好或公司改革有望见成效的龙头标的；大众 品短期关注零食公司或在山姆等会员店上架新品的投资机会，推荐劲仔食 品、盐津铺子，关注有友食品，持续推荐品类红利、零售变革大年和成本周 期带来的食饮投资机会。 白酒板块：白酒板块当前仍处低位，且一季报或为全年低点，当前位置持续 推荐，优选品牌势能较强、库存更早出清、目标增速合理的酒企。当前存在 关税等外部不确定性，以白酒为代表的内需配置价值彰显，政策及地产企稳 催化下或迎白酒结构牛市，推荐攻守兼备两条主线。重视"势能延续"、"低 基数修复"两条主线：①势能延续的确定性：高端酒推荐贵州茅台/五粮液， 次高端及区域酒推荐古井贡酒/山西汾 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is focusing on three new consumer investment opportunities: "category dividends in the food sector," "new channel drivers such as snack companies in membership supermarkets," and "new hotspots in health products." Traditional consumption is expected to see performance bottoming out and potentially rising [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies in the industry during this phase, particularly in the liquor sector, which may experience a transition year in 2025. Attention should be given to companies with good fundamentals or those undergoing effective reforms [1][2] - The report continues to recommend leading stocks in the food and beverage sector, highlighting companies such as Jin Zai Food, Yili, and Salted Pudding, among others, as key investment opportunities [2][24] Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector is currently focusing on "category dividends," "new channel drivers," and "health product hotspots" as investment opportunities. The report maintains a positive outlook on leading companies in the sector [1][2][24] - Recommended stocks include Jin Zai Food, Yili, Salted Pudding, Dongpeng Beverage, Miaokelando, Wancheng Group, Guming, Mixue Group, Anjixin Food, Qingdao Beer (A+H), Lihai Food, Three Squirrels, Babi Food, and Xianle Health, with a focus on leading companies [2][24] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently at a low point, with the first quarter potentially being the lowest point for the year. The report recommends focusing on brands with strong momentum and reasonable growth targets [2][16] - The report highlights two main lines of investment: "momentum continuation" and "low base recovery." High-end liquor recommendations include Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while mid-range and regional liquor recommendations include Guqingongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu [2][17] - The report notes that the liquor sector may enter a structural bull market driven by policy and real estate stabilization [16][17] Market Performance - From May 19 to May 23, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.18%, while other liquor categories increased by 8.69% and frozen foods by 3.89%. The liquor sector saw a decline of 2.78% [3][29] - Specific liquor companies showed varied performance, with Jinzhongzi Jiu and Huangtai Jiu seeing slight increases, while Shanxi Fenjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu experienced significant declines [4][29] Company Updates - Jin Zai Food is highlighted as a key recommendation due to its clear growth path with major products and potential in new channels. The company is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025 [19][21] - Guizhou Moutai is focusing on five key areas for development in 2025, including strengthening its core business and building an ESG ecosystem [7][8] - Other companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Yanghe are also focusing on expanding their market presence and enhancing brand value [10][11]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 25 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：白酒行业逐步施压，餐供龙头边际修复 投资建议：1、白酒：2025 年目标理性，行业逐步施压，权重龙头配置价 值凸显，建议关注" 优势龙头、红利延续、强势复苏"三条主线：1）优势 龙头，头部酒企份额持续提升：贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒； 2）红利延续，高确定性区域酒：迎驾贡酒（洞藏大单品红利）、今世缘（江 苏格局红利）等；3）受益复苏与风险偏好提升，弹性标的：泸州老窖、 水井坊、舍得酒业、老白干酒、港股珍酒李渡、酒鬼酒等。2、大众品： 餐供空间广阔龙头修复，松鼠生态大会拓展边界，建议寻找高成长与强复 苏两条主线：1）高景气或高成长逻辑：盐津铺子、好想你、东鹏饮料、 燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、三只松鼠、百润股份、有友食品等，港股农夫山泉、 华润饮料、卫龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏改善：青岛啤酒、海天味业、 新乳业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、仙乐健康、安井食品、立高食 品等，港股 H&H 国际控股等。 白酒：龙头理性，行业释压。本周多家酒企召开股东大会和业绩说明会。 2025 年稳字当头、降速发展和长期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yanghe Co., Ltd. is facing significant financial difficulties, with declining revenues and profits, marking a stark contrast to its competitors in the liquor industry [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Yanghe reported revenue of 28.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.673 billion yuan, down 33.37% [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw Yanghe enter a loss, with a net loss of 1.905 billion yuan and a revenue drop of 52.17% to 1.36 billion yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, the decline continued, with revenue down 31.92% to 11.066 billion yuan and net profit down 39.93% to 3.637 billion yuan [1] Market Position - Among five liquor companies with market capitalizations exceeding 100 billion yuan, Yanghe is the only one with declining performance, yet it has the highest valuation at 23.84 times earnings [1] - The company's market capitalization has decreased significantly, from a peak of 3,960 billion yuan to 1,014 billion yuan [1] Sales and Inventory - Yanghe's sales volume in 2024 was 139,100 tons, a decline of 16.3% year-on-year, with inventory increasing by 16.38% to 45,600 tons [1] - Sales revenue in the domestic market fell by 11.43% to 12.748 billion yuan, while revenue from outside the province decreased by 14.35% to 15.4998 billion yuan [1] Strategic Response - To address these challenges, Yanghe plans to strengthen quota management for its flagship product, Dream Blue M6+, and has launched the seventh generation of Sea Blue while optimizing product quality [1] - The company is also actively pursuing a "true vintage" strategy by introducing handcrafted vintage wines [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with a focus on long-term growth strategies. The sales of mid-to-high-end liquor are under pressure, and both domestic and external markets are in a period of adjustment [2][4] - The company has significantly increased its national advertising expenses, which has led to a temporary strain on cash flow. The gross and net profit margins have decreased year-on-year [3] - Despite the current challenges, the company is expected to benefit from policy catalysts that may restore liquor demand, and it has a high dividend yield, indicating potential for recovery [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 288.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.83%, with a net profit of 66.73 billion yuan, down 33.37% [10] - For 2025, the revenue growth is projected to decline by 13.23%, with a net profit decrease of 14.63% [12] Product and Market Performance - The company's mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor revenues for 2024 were 243.17 billion yuan and 39.31 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 14.79% and 0.49% [2] - The sales volume of liquor decreased by 16.30%, while the average price per ton increased by 3.93% [2] Cost and Expenses - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 2.09 percentage points to 73.16%, and the net profit margin fell by 7.16 percentage points to 23.09% [3] - The company increased its advertising and promotional expenses significantly, with national advertising costs rising by 96.10% to 800 million yuan [3] Cash Flow and Dividends - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 46.29 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.49% year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 25.36 billion yuan, down 47.72% [3] - The total dividend for 2024 was 7 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 104.9% and a dividend yield of 6.8% [3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast, expecting revenue growth rates of -13.23%, 2.65%, and 3.27% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 3.78, 3.94, and 4.11 yuan per share, respectively [4]

Industry Dynamics - In the first four months of 2025, the production of liquor in China decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, totaling 1.308 million kiloliters, with April's production at 281,000 kiloliters, down 13.8% year-on-year [3] - The national liquor price index fell by 0.03% in mid-May, with premium liquor prices dropping by 0.06%, indicating market adjustment pressures due to weak high-end consumption and intensified competition [3] - Retail sales of tobacco and liquor in China increased by 5.8% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, reaching 230.5 billion yuan [4] - Guizhou province announced three liquor investment projects totaling 660 million yuan and a 5 billion yuan project for the production of sauce-flavored liquor [4] Company Dynamics - Guizhou Moutai launched the 2025 Moutai Friends Carnival, attracting nearly 500 participants to experience Moutai's culture and production processes [6] - The first 2025 China Yibin Wuliangye Wedding Festival was held, promoting cultural integration with innovative experiences [6] - Three liquor companies, Yanghe, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Guojingong, held annual performance briefings, focusing on market strategies and product launches [7] - Moutai's shareholders approved a profit distribution plan for 2024, with a cash dividend of 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 34.671 billion yuan [7] - Shede Liquor is accelerating its production expansion project, which includes 23 sub-projects aimed at enhancing production capacity by 2027 [7] - Anhui Yingjia Gongjiu set a revenue target of 7.6 billion yuan for 2025, expecting a 3.49% year-on-year growth [8]

证券之星食品饮料行业周报：2025年5月19日-2025年5月23日，沪深300指数下跌0.18%，申万食品饮料指数下跌 0.92%。前五大上涨个股分别为：会稽山（601579）、ST岩石、古越龙山（600059）、ST加加（002650）、天味食 品（603317）。 机构观点 开源证券本周观点(含个股)： 推荐组合：山西汾酒（600809）、贵州茅台（600519）、西麦食品（002956）(1)山西汾酒：汾酒短期面临需求压 力，但中期成长确定性较高。汾牌产品结构升级同时杏花村、竹叶青同时发力，全国化进程加快。(2)贵州茅台：公 司将深化改革进程，以更加务实的姿态，强调未来可持续发展。公司分红率提升，此轮周期后茅台可看得更为长 远。(3)西麦食品：燕麦主业稳健增长，线下基本盘稳固，新渠道开拓快速推进。原材料成本迎来改善，预计盈利能 力有望提升。 浙商证券本周建议(含个股)： 【港股食饮】建议关注：青啤H、华润啤酒、百威、蒙牛乳业、卫龙美味、悠然牧业、康师傅、统一等。 【白酒板块】建议关注α相对强&享受一定价位β红利的白酒龙头酒企：①强α主线：山西汾酒/贵州茅台/今世缘 （603369）等；②顺周期β主线： ...

近期，由《每日经济新闻》举办的2025第十届中国酒业资本论坛暨中国酒业金樽奖颁奖典礼在成都举行。论坛上，《每日经济新闻》和清华大学经济管理学 院中国企业研究中心联合发布了"2025中国酒业上市公司品牌价值榜TOP30"，上榜企业合计品牌价值达16578亿元。此活动旨在帮助上榜酒企更清晰地了解 企业品牌发展状况，为其动态跟踪品牌的投资绩效和提升品牌管理效率提供参考。论坛现场为古越龙山、山西汾酒、金徽酒等3家上榜品牌价值增幅前三的 企业，颁发了"2025中国酒业上市公司品牌活力奖"。 2025中国酒业上市公司品牌价值榜TOP30 此次榜上有名的泸州老窖、山西汾酒、口子窖均注册了".商标"域名，其中山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司还为其多个品牌注册了".商标"域名，如："汾酒.商 标"、"竹叶青.商标"、"杏花村.商标"，建立了与商标品牌名称一致的互联网入口，方便与消费者在互联网上建立直接连接。 酒类名企在中文域名选择上不约而同的将商标品牌与域名保持一致性，让品牌价值与域名价值发挥两者明显的协同效应，体现了域名价值与品牌价值的相辅 相成。一方面，高品牌价值企业的域名更具辨识度和商业价值，例如"泸州老窖.商标"域名的潜在 ...

文|酒讯 方圆 5月18日，新修订后的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》（下称《条例》）正式印发，其中明确工作 餐不得提供高档菜肴，不得提供香烟，不上酒。 这份"禁酒令"再一次引发市场热烈反响。资本市场，白酒股股价在5月19日集体走低，被一部分人解读 为受"禁酒令"影响而造成的波动。 公务用酒禁令从2012年中央八项规定以来，通过地方细化、行业延伸、执行强化，已经形成了多层次、 常态化的制度体系，如今新《条例》只是在原有规定基础上进一步明确细则和重申原则。 公务用酒在一条条禁令的削减下不断收缩市场占比，可以预见，这个曾经占据白酒消费市场半壁江山的 用酒场景，或将逐步退出历史舞台。 01、公务用酒的"一生" 公务用酒在中国酒业发展史上一直有着特殊的意义。在古代，它甚至长期具备着重要的政治属性。 "温酒斩华雄""青梅煮酒论英雄""李白斗酒诗百篇"在历史长河中如同古人"晒朋友圈"一般稀松平常，但 实际上酒文化很长一段时间内都是政治的一部分。 自商周时期起，酒就作为祭祀礼仪的核心载体，而后随着粮食酿酒的出现，酒水被纳入国家管理体系， 历朝历代都有专司酒水买卖的官职设置，如周有酒正、汉有酒丞、齐有酒吏、梁有酒库丞、隋唐宋 ...