Overall Industry Review - The food and beverage sector significantly underperformed the market, with a year-to-date decline of -0.62%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 15.0 percentage points [7][11] - The snack sector showed strong performance with a year-to-date increase of 28.88%, driven by channel expansion and a total revenue growth of 30.97% in the first three quarters of 2025 [11] - The beverage sector, particularly soft drinks, benefited from travel demand and low-price, high-frequency consumption, achieving a revenue and profit growth in double digits [11][14] Alcoholic Beverages - The liquor sector exhibited weak performance, with a decline in sales and prices, particularly for white liquor, which saw a year-on-year revenue drop of -5.83% and a net profit decline of -6.93% in the first three quarters of 2025 [11][44] - The overall white liquor sector's revenue decreased by -5.8% and net profit by -6.9% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant drop in Q3, where total revenue fell by -18.4% [44] - The report indicates that the white liquor industry is in a prolonged adjustment phase, with the current downturn lasting 57 months, marking the longest adjustment period in history [35][40] Future Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of boosting domestic demand in 2026, with expectations for policy support to stimulate recovery [3] - The report suggests focusing on sectors with low bases for recovery, such as frozen foods and beverages, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery and new product opportunities [3][4] - The report highlights the potential for structural opportunities in the food and beverage sector, particularly in overseas markets and cost improvements, recommending companies like Anqi Yeast and Mijiu Group for their overseas expansion strategies [4][34] Investment Strategies - The report identifies four key investment themes for 2026: opportunities in overseas markets, cost benefits, new product launches, and value-for-money consumption [4] - Companies with strong platform capabilities and innovative products, such as Dongpeng Beverage and Wancheng Group, are recommended for their potential in the beverage sector [4] - The report also emphasizes the importance of identifying companies that can adapt to a low-inflation, low-confidence environment by offering high-value products [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [21]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for liquor is showing weak recovery, with a year-on-year decline of over 20% during the New Year period, although there is a slight month-on-month improvement from November and December [4]. - The report notes that the high-end liquor prices are under pressure, with a decline of over 10% for high-end products and 5-10% for mid-range products, while the mass consumption segment remains resilient [4]. - The report anticipates a narrowing of the decline in demand for the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations of a double-digit decline but less severe than during the New Year [4]. - The report emphasizes that the pricing for high-end liquor will remain under pressure, with expectations of continued marginal declines in prices [4]. Industry Overview - The liquor industry consists of 20 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 288.22 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 288.18 billion yuan [1]. - The report provides a comparative performance analysis, indicating absolute performance declines of -6.0% over one month, -1.4% over six months, and -9.9% over twelve months [2]. Company Feedback and Strategies - Moutai is focusing on market-oriented transformation and has introduced a digital platform to stimulate consumer demand [5]. - Wuliangye is emphasizing sales growth and market order maintenance, with a strategy to enhance market share in the 800 yuan price range [5]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to increase subsidies and rebates to ensure consumer affordability while maintaining its brand position [5]. - Shanxi Fenjiu is focusing on key markets and maintaining growth momentum for its premium products [5]. - Yanghe is adjusting its sales strategies based on terminal orders and distributor inventory, with a focus on maintaining reasonable inventory levels [5]. - Jinsiyuan is experiencing growth in its mass price segment, which is expected to continue contributing to overall growth [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that pessimistic factors have been priced in, and as the Spring Festival approaches, demand is expected to recover, particularly for Moutai and Gujing [4]. - The report recommends focusing on Moutai for its high certainty and dividend yield, while also highlighting Gujing as a key player in the mass price segment [4].

Core Viewpoint - Today, 11 stocks received buy ratings from institutions, with Tian Ci Materials having its rating upgraded and Min Sida and China National Foreign Trade being newly covered by institutions [1] Group 1: Institutional Ratings - A total of 13 buy ratings were issued today, covering 11 stocks, with Tian Ci Materials and Guizhou Moutai receiving the highest attention, each having 2 buy ratings [1] - Among the stocks rated, 6 provided future target prices, with 5 stocks showing an upside potential exceeding 20%. Guizhou Moutai has the highest upside potential at 82.33%, with a target price of 2600.00 yuan set by Huachuang Securities [1][2] - Other stocks with significant upside potential include Qibin Group and Shiji Information, with upside potentials of 73.03% and 30.30% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The average increase for stocks with buy ratings today was 2.96%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index. Ten stocks saw price increases, with Min Sida, Qibin Group, and Shiji Information leading the gains at 8.72%, 5.06%, and 4.52% respectively [1] Group 3: Individual Stock Ratings - Guizhou Moutai received a strong buy rating from Huachuang Securities with a target price of 2600.00 yuan and a latest closing price of 1426.00 yuan [2] - Min Sida was rated as "Increase" by GF Securities with a target price of 54.34 yuan and a latest closing price of 44.49 yuan [2] - Tian Ci Materials received buy ratings from both CITIC Securities and Western Securities, with a latest closing price of 48.04 yuan [2]

来源：翠鸟资本 净值不上不下，反弹力度有限，持有人开始频繁问一个问题：白酒到底还行不行？ 在很多普通投资者的记忆里，白酒指数曾经是一条清晰而省心的赛道。不用选股，不用判断公司治理， 只要我国消费升级存在，白酒龙头就会走出趋势。 招商中证白酒指数LOF就是这一轮逻辑下的典型代表之一，但是，当时间拉长到最近几年，这种熟悉的 安全感正在被反复消耗。 站在今天回看这只产品的阶段性表现，它并不是突然失效，而是被完整地拖进了一个行业与估值同步消 化的周期里。 下跌时间长 从阶段性数据看，招商中证白酒指数基金A份额的表现给人的第一感受是：乏力。 截至2025年12月26日，产品近3个月下跌5.91%。近1年下跌11.27%，近2年下跌20.14%，近3年下跌 36.15%。 这组数据的特点很清晰：下跌时间长，反弹幅度弱。 即便在近6个月内实现0.72%的微弱正收益，也很难给投资者带来明显的信心修复。 但同时也要看到，这并不是一只出现极端回撤或结构性失控的产品，而是一种典型的行业横盘期指数表 现。 什么情况？ 这意味着可以得出一个非常直接的结论：招商中证白酒指数的表现，本质上就是几家核心白酒公司的加 权组合。 当茅台、五粮液 ...

长江证券研报指出，洋河股份持续去库存，未来有望轻装上阵。受需求端波动的影响，行业整体面临一 定的压力，从历史来看，降低增速预期、维护渠道健康是缓解库存周期波动的正解。当前公司积极协助 经销商去化库存，渠道逐步回归健康良性，未来有望轻装上阵，再度起航。预计公司2025/2026年EPS为 2.25/2.66元，对应最新PE为27/23倍，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the recent slight rebound in the retail prices of China's top ten liquor products, indicating a stabilization after a period of decline [1][5]. Price Trends - The overall retail price for the top ten liquor products reached 9081 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan from the previous day, suggesting a potential market recovery [1][5]. - The market exhibited a trend of more price increases than decreases, with notable price rises for several products, including: - Qinghua Lang increased by 10 yuan per bottle, leading the market [6]. - Guojiao 1573 rose by 4 yuan per bottle, marking its fifth consecutive day of price increases [6]. - Qinghua Fen 20 and Wuliangye Pu 58th generation both saw increases of 2 yuan per bottle [6]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ experienced a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [6]. - Conversely, some products saw price declines, with: - The price of the premium Moutai dropping by 8 yuan per bottle [6]. - Xijiu Junpin decreased by 5 yuan per bottle [6]. - Feitian Moutai fell by 3 yuan per bottle [6]. Data Collection Methodology - The data for the "Liquor Price Reference" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, ensuring a comprehensive and objective representation of market prices [2][6]. Industry News - On January 4, Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. issued a warning regarding fraudulent recruitment information circulating online, falsely using the Moutai name and claiming direct sales at 1169 yuan, which the company has not authorized [2][6].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chinese liquor market, particularly the top ten baijiu products, has shown signs of price stabilization after a period of decline, with a slight rebound in retail prices observed on January 5 [1][5]. Price Trends - The overall retail price for the top ten baijiu products reached 9081 yuan, reflecting a minor increase of 3 yuan compared to the previous day, indicating a potential stabilization after hitting new lows [1][5]. - The market is experiencing a recovery pattern with more products increasing in price than decreasing. Notably, Qinghua Lang saw a significant increase of 10 yuan per bottle, leading the market [6]. - Other products that increased in price include Guojiao 1573 (+4 yuan), Qinghua Fen 20 (+2 yuan), and Wuliangye Pu 58th generation (+2 yuan). Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ saw a slight increase of 1 yuan [6][8]. - Conversely, the prices of some products have decreased, with the premium Moutai dropping by 8 yuan, Xijiu Junpin down by 5 yuan, and Feitian Moutai down by 3 yuan [6][8]. Data Collection Methodology - The data for the "Liquor Price Reference" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. This aims to provide an objective and traceable representation of the market prices for well-known baijiu [2][6]. Industry News - On January 4, Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. issued a warning regarding false recruitment information circulating online, claiming to offer Moutai at 1169 yuan. The company clarified that it has not authorized any such offers and is cooperating with authorities to address the issue [2][6].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chinese liquor market, particularly the top ten baijiu products, has shown signs of price stabilization after a period of decline, with a slight rebound in retail prices observed on January 5 [1][5]. Price Trends - The overall retail price for the top ten baijiu products reached 9081 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan from the previous day, indicating a potential stabilization after hitting new lows [1][5]. - The market is experiencing a recovery pattern with more products increasing in price than decreasing. Notably, Qinghua Lang saw a significant increase of 10 yuan per bottle, leading the market [6]. - Other products that increased in price include Guojiao 1573 (+4 yuan), Qinghua Fen 20 (+2 yuan), and Wuliangye Pu 58th generation (+2 yuan). Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ saw a minor increase of 1 yuan [6][8]. - Conversely, products that decreased in price include the premium Moutai, which fell by 8 yuan, Xijiu Junpin by 5 yuan, and Flying Moutai by 3 yuan [6][9]. Data Collection Methodology - The data for the "Liquor Price Reference" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The aim is to provide objective and traceable data on the market prices of well-known baijiu [2][6]. Industry News - On January 4, Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. issued a warning regarding false recruitment information circulating online, claiming to offer Moutai at 1169 yuan. The company clarified that it has not authorized any such offers and is cooperating with authorities to address the issue [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese white liquor market has shown signs of stabilization with a slight rebound in retail prices after a period of decline, indicating a potential recovery in market sentiment [1]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten white liquor products ended a continuous decline on January 5, with a total price of 9081 yuan for a bundled sale, reflecting a 3 yuan increase from the previous day [1]. - The market is experiencing a recovery pattern with more products increasing in price than decreasing, suggesting a structural rebound [1]. Notable Price Changes - Qinghua Lang saw a strong performance with a price increase of 10 yuan per bottle, leading the market [1]. - Guojiao 1573 has increased by 4 yuan per bottle, marking its fifth consecutive day of price increases [1]. - Other products with price increases include Qinghua Fen 20 and Wuliangye Pu 58, both up by 2 yuan per bottle, and Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ with a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Conversely, the price of the premium Moutai has decreased significantly, with the boutique version down by 8 yuan, and the Flying Moutai down by 3 yuan per bottle [1][3].

◎记者 时娜 上市公司的回购增持热潮持续至2026年。2026年1月4日，东诚药业、世纪华通等上市公司发布回购股份 计划，宁德时代、美的集团、潍柴动力、蓝思科技等多家深市龙头公司也披露了回购进展情况，英派斯 等公司披露增持计划实施情况，以"真金白银"传递信心，夯实公司价值投资基础。此外，多家上市公司 近日宣布向投资者派发"大红包"。 股份回购是上市公司优化股权结构、提升股东回报的重要抓手。2026年伊始，便有深市上市公司发布股 份回购计划。 东诚药业1月4日公告，计划以集中竞价交易方式回购股份，金额不低于1亿元（含），不超过2亿元 （含），用于实施股权激励和/或员工持股计划。回购价格不超过18.00元/股。 2025年以来，深市上市公司积极回应号召、立足自身发展，持续掀起"真金白银"的回购、增持、分红热 潮，多措并举提升投资者回报，为资本市场健康发展注入强劲动力。 上市公司下"红包雨" 据上海证券报记者不完全统计，2025年12月31日至2026年1月4日晚，仅深市就有15家公司披露半年度或 三季度分红实施公告，相关分红将于2026年1月陆续到账。 其中，天赐材料公告，公司2025年前三季度利润分配预案已获2 ...