Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a collective decline on September 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.15% to 3831.66 points, and the liquor sector also faced a downturn, indicating potential challenges in the industry despite the upcoming consumption peak during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [1]. Industry Summary - The liquor sector index closed at 2315.48 points, down 1.60%, with all 20 liquor stocks declining by over 1% [1]. - Major liquor companies saw significant stock price drops: Kweichow Moutai (600519) closed at 1467.96 CNY per share, down 1.68%; Wuliangye (000858) at 123.94 CNY, down 1.60%; Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) at 201.00 CNY, down 1.69%; Luzhou Laojiao (000568) at 133.70 CNY, down 2.41%; and Yanghe Brewery (002304) at 70.13 CNY, down 2.04% [1]. - According to Pacific Securities, while terminal sales are expected to recover on a month-on-month basis due to the approaching consumption peak, year-on-year sales pressure remains significant due to economic and policy factors. It is anticipated that products priced below 300 CNY will perform better than those above 500 CNY [1].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector is experiencing a shift in pricing logic, indicating that it may no longer be considered a cyclical growth stock, with future stock price gains expected to come from stable performance increments and appropriate dividends [1] Market Performance - On September 18, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3893.95 points, rising by 0.45% - The white liquor sector closed at 2344.99 points, down by 0.35%, with 17 stocks in the sector declining [1] Individual Stock Performance - Kweichow Moutai closed at 1485.40 CNY per share, down by 0.51% - Wuliangye closed at 125.15 CNY per share, down by 0.64% - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 203.29 CNY per share, down by 0.57% - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 135.39 CNY per share, down by 1.18% - Yanghe Brewery closed at 70.89 CNY per share, down by 0.98% [1] Analyst Insights - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that the pricing logic in the white liquor industry will undergo a trend change, moving away from being a cyclical growth stock [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yanghe Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating potential challenges in the market [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 17, Yanghe's stock fell by 0.29%, with a trading volume of 292 million yuan [1]. - The financing buy-in amount for Yanghe on the same day was 19.90 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 27.54 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 7.63 million yuan [1]. - As of September 17, the total financing and securities lending balance for Yanghe was 1.51 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to June 2025, Yanghe reported operating revenue of 14.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.32% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 4.34 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 45.34% [2]. Group 3: Shareholder and Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Yanghe has distributed a total of 56.34 billion yuan in dividends, with 19.66 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Yanghe was 190,700, an increase of 1.68% from the previous period [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable entities such as the China Securities White Wine Index A and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, with changes in their holdings noted [3].

来源：文轩财经 对此，文轩指数推出2025上半年白酒企业活力排名，活力是企业发展的必备条件，是创新和适应市场变化的内在能力，我们从多项数据维度评判 白酒企业的活力指数，试图探究白酒行业的一些发展趋势。 01 行业"开心"玩家越来越少了 虽然，当前白酒行业处于"量减、收平、利降"的调整期，头部企业营收增速放缓，不少酒企更是出现下跌，这更需要企业在行业逆境之中拔开云 雾！ 2025上半年，22家上市白酒企业中，6家保持了营收和净利润的双增长，包括贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒、老白干酒和金徽酒。营收 超百亿的企业共6家，包括贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖、洋河股份、古井贡酒。 以汾酒为例，其青花汾酒30·复兴版升级款采用了"微氧呼吸结构"技术，在年轻化上，注重口感创新，通过开发轻酒饮、鼓励消费者进行创意调 饮，这也开辟了新的销售场景和用户；五粮液深耕微生物、风味物质等基础研究，并积极推动智能化生产，不断巩固其品质优势。 在研发投入上2025年，主要上市酒企的平均研发费用整体看有增无减，2025年上半年，五粮液研发费用2.1亿元， 同比增长31.2%；现代生物技术 复刻老窖泥工程技术的转化应用取得突破， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the liquor industry, particularly focusing on the international expansion of Chinese Baijiu [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that while Chinese Baijiu has been exported for over 40 years, it has not truly "gone global," with only 6.9 billion yuan in exports in 2024. The report highlights the challenges and opportunities in international markets, particularly in the context of rising global influence and the presence of a significant overseas Chinese population [4][7][8]. - The report identifies the need for Baijiu companies to address consumer decision-making processes and to enhance their marketing strategies to penetrate international markets effectively [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Baijiu Going Global: A Potential New Trend? - The report discusses the historical context of Baijiu exports, noting that initial attempts were limited due to cultural and taste differences. Recent years have seen increased internationalization efforts from leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye [8][9]. - The report outlines the current state of Baijiu exports, indicating a stable export volume of around 15,000 tons, with a focus on premium products driving growth [12][18]. 2. Challenges and Opportunities - The report identifies various challenges faced by Baijiu in international markets, including differing alcohol standards, cultural barriers, and limited consumer awareness. However, it also points out new opportunities arising from China's growing global influence and the potential market among overseas Chinese [7][8][9]. 3. Pathways to Success - The report suggests that Baijiu companies should focus on understanding consumer preferences and building brand narratives to enhance market penetration. It emphasizes the importance of targeted marketing strategies in regions like East Asia, Southeast Asia, and emerging markets [7][8][9]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye, which have shown strong international strategies and brand recognition. It also highlights the potential of other companies like Fenjiu and Laojiao, which are diversifying their product offerings and improving channel management [7][8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector is currently experiencing a dual bottom phase characterized by "fundamental bottoming and low valuation," with a gradual easing of previous policy pressures and a potential weak recovery in demand driven by consumption expansion policies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On September 17, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34 points, up 0.37% [1] - The liquor sector index closed at 2353.15 points, down 1.32%, with 18 liquor stocks declining, led by Jinhui Liquor which fell by 3.23% [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Kweichow Moutai closed at 1493.00 CNY per share, down 0.47% [1] - Wuliangye closed at 125.96 CNY per share, up 0.13% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 204.45 CNY per share, down 1.89% [1] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 137.00 CNY per share, down 1.05% [1] - Yanghe Brewery closed at 71.59 CNY per share, down 0.29% [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Pacific Securities noted that the liquor sector is in a phase of "fundamental bottoming and low valuation," suggesting a potential for recovery as policy pressures ease and consumption expansion policies take effect [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a recommendation for strong brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as Shanxi Fenjiu, which has a clear growth path in a counter-cyclical environment [5]. Core Insights - The industry is currently in a phase of accelerated bottoming, transitioning from "passive clearing" to "active adjustment" due to ongoing pressures from excess supply and demand scenarios [3][5]. - The first half of 2025 saw a negative growth in revenue and net profit for major liquor companies, marking the first negative growth in this cycle [15]. - The report highlights a structural opportunity during the volume adjustment period, with market pricing increasingly favoring dividend yield and market share [3][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The white liquor industry faced challenges in the first half of 2025, including slow macroeconomic recovery and strict alcohol prohibition policies, leading to a decline in consumption scenarios and continued pressure on demand [5]. - The overall revenue and net profit for 17 major liquor companies were 2368.3 billion and 944.6 billion respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 0.4% and 0.9% [15]. Performance Analysis - In Q2 2025, the revenue and net profit for the industry were 867.2 billion and 313.4 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.7% and 7.3%, marking the first negative growth in revenue during this cycle [15]. - High-end liquor maintained positive growth, while the mid-range and regional brands experienced declines [20][22]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the market is shifting focus from short-term recovery scenarios to verifying the bottom of demand trends through year-on-year comparisons [3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the third quarter, driven by seasonal consumption events such as Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which may accelerate the bottoming process of the fundamentals [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brands with strong market positions and growth potential, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and regional leaders like Guyi Gongjiu and Jinhui Jiu [5].

Summary of Conference Call on China Spirits Industry Industry Overview - The spirits industry in China is currently facing challenges due to the ongoing impact of the anti-extravagance policy, which has affected consumer demand and retail momentum. [1][2][11] - The third quarter of 2025 (3Q25) is expected to be the trough for the industry, with a projected sales decline of 5% to 27% across various brands, excluding Moutai and Jiugui. [1][2][21] Key Points and Arguments Demand and Sales Trends - Retail momentum is anticipated to remain weak, particularly during the peak season due to fewer holiday days compared to previous years. [1] - A significant decline in retail volume is expected, with estimates of a 30% drop in August and a 15-20% decline during the peak season. [11] - The wholesale pricing remains under pressure, with notable declines in prices for key brands like Feitian Moutai and Common Wuliangye. [19][27] Shipment and Inventory Management - Spirits companies are prioritizing channel health by implementing deeper destocking and tighter shipment controls to ease distributor financing burdens. [1][2] - The trend of controlling shipments is crucial for maintaining channel inventory and supporting wholesale prices, especially for high-end spirits. [18][27] Financial Forecasts and Revisions - Sales and net profit forecasts for super-premium and upper-mid-end spirits have been revised down by up to 6% and 17% respectively for 2025E-27E. [2][42] - Despite the cautious outlook, target multiples have been raised by 9-19% to reflect a more normalized valuation level amid market re-rating. [2] Product Strategy and Market Positioning - Companies are focusing on product strategy to navigate the current market challenges, including reinforcing mid-end and mass portfolios and innovating lower-degree liquor products for younger consumers. [11] - The emphasis on residential banquets and product mix shifts is seen as a potential catalyst for recovery. [11] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - There is potential for enhancement in shareholder returns, with increased dividend payout forecasts for companies like Wuliangye. [11][43] Additional Important Insights - The anti-extravagance policy's impact is expected to gradually normalize, potentially boosting sentiment during the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday season. [11] - The affordability of high-end spirits has improved, which may support residential demand as policy headwinds ease. [31] - The spirits sector has seen a rotation towards laggards, indicating a market sentiment shift towards recovery narratives. [12][42] Conclusion - The China spirits industry is navigating a challenging environment with significant policy impacts affecting demand and pricing. However, strategic adjustments in shipment control, product offerings, and potential improvements in affordability may provide pathways for recovery in the coming years. [1][2][11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is shifting from a "business necessity" to a "lifestyle enjoyment" approach, with many companies launching lower-alcohol products to attract younger consumers and enhance market vitality [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Several major liquor companies, including Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shui Jing Fang, are actively introducing lower-alcohol products, indicating a trend towards product diversification and market adaptation [2][3]. - The market for low-alcohol liquor is projected to grow significantly, from approximately 20 billion yuan in 2020 to about 57 billion yuan in 2024, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 30% [4]. Group 2: Consumer Demographics - The primary consumer demographic for liquor is shifting, with older generations gradually exiting the market, while younger consumers, particularly those born after 1985, are becoming the main growth drivers [3][4]. - The younger generation prefers personalized, lower-alcohol, and social drinking experiences, which necessitates a strategic shift for liquor companies to engage this demographic effectively [3][5]. Group 3: Marketing and Sales Strategies - Companies need to adopt innovative marketing strategies, utilizing new media and experiential marketing to resonate with younger consumers and stimulate brand engagement [5][6]. - The current market faces challenges, including a lack of consumption scenarios for low-alcohol products and limited channel profitability, which may hinder sales unless companies implement supportive policies [5][6]. Group 4: Future Directions - Lowering alcohol content is seen as a starting point for companies to connect with younger consumers, but deeper engagement with consumer preferences and behaviors is essential for long-term success [6]. - The industry is entering a new era characterized by rational consumption attitudes, where understanding and responding to the needs of younger consumers will be crucial for driving growth [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is experiencing signs of recovery after a prolonged period of adjustment, with sales and distribution showing improvement in August due to seasonal demand and price adjustments [1][8]. Industry Performance - After nearly three months of downward adjustment, the baijiu circulation and sales have shown signs of recovery, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase in food and beverage prices in August [1]. - The sales volume and revenue in August significantly increased compared to July, with major companies like Kweichow Moutai reporting a notable rebound in sales [1][8]. - The second quarter of the year saw a deep adjustment phase for the baijiu industry, with 20 listed companies reporting that 13 experienced declines in both revenue and net profit [3][4]. Company Performance - In the second quarter, only Kweichow Moutai and Tianyoude Liquor reported year-on-year revenue growth, while most other companies, including Yanghe and Gujing Gongjiu, faced significant declines [4][5]. - The second quarter is typically a slow season for baijiu companies, but this year, the "off-season effect" returned due to high channel inventory and ineffective sales strategies [6]. - The impact of policy changes, such as the "ban on alcohol" for official receptions, has also contributed to the decline in performance for many companies [6][7]. Market Trends - The baijiu market is currently in a "clearing inventory" phase, with ongoing price reductions leading to increased sales volume, particularly in the mid-range and popular price segments [9]. - Despite the recent sales rebound, the overall market is still expected to decline compared to last year, with analysts predicting a double-digit decrease during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [9][10]. - The baijiu sector has seen a significant rebound in stock prices over the past month, with the index rising by 12.32% from August 1 to September 16, although it remains below last year's peak [10][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the upcoming holiday season may provide a window for price stabilization and potential recovery for premium liquor brands, but the overall industry may still face challenges [11][12]. - The current market sentiment is driven by a combination of low valuations and speculative investments, rather than a genuine recovery in industry health [12].