Group 1 - The report highlights that the food and beverage industry is experiencing a shift from inventory reduction to capacity reduction, particularly in the liquor sector, with a focus on new products and channels for mass-market products [1][12][26] - The overall effective demand remains insufficient, with consumption structure adjustments driven by "emotional premium" and "new channel transformation" [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of new retail channels, such as instant retail, which are reshaping the value chain for brand owners, distributors, and retailers, with efficiency being a key factor [2][31] Group 2 - In the liquor sector, the report notes a significant decline in government consumption, which has dropped from 30-40% to around 5% since the introduction of the "three public consumption ban" in 2012, impacting business and mass consumption indirectly [18][21] - The report outlines the 2025 operational goals for various liquor companies, indicating a rational approach to growth targets amid industry consensus on deceleration [23][24] - The report forecasts that the market size for instant retail in the liquor sector will exceed 100 billion yuan by 2025, with significant growth observed in online sales during promotional events [32][36] Group 3 - The report indicates that the white liquor sector is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with macroeconomic cycles, supply-demand imbalances, and a lack of consumption scenarios affecting stock performance [40][41] - It highlights that the white liquor index has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a year-to-date decline of 12.1% as of June 12, 2025 [40][39] - The report suggests that the social attributes of white liquor are evolving, with younger generations favoring different social consumption patterns, such as casual gatherings and emotional consumption [26][29]

截至2025年6月18日 10:15，中证主要消费指数上涨0.26%，成分股燕京啤酒上涨6.36%，东鹏饮料上涨2.53%，今世缘上涨1.45%，青岛啤酒上涨1.44%，海大 集团上涨1.43%。消费ETF嘉实(512600)红盘蓄势。 流动性方面，消费ETF嘉实盘中成交98.23万元。拉长时间看，截至6月17日，消费ETF嘉实近1年日均成交1013.66万元。 规模方面，消费ETF嘉实近1年规模增长1.24亿元。份额方面，消费ETF嘉实近1周份额增长390.00万份。 从估值层面来看，消费ETF嘉实跟踪的中证主要消费指数最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅18.76倍，处于近1年0.4%的分位，即估值低于近1年99.6%以上的时间， 处于历史低位。 6月16日，国家统计局发布5月份经济数据。其中，5月份，社会消费品零售总额41326亿元，同比增长6.4%，达到2024年以来的最高增速。按消费类型分，5 月份，商品零售额36748亿元，同比增长6.5%，是2024年以来的最高增速；餐饮收入4578亿元，增长5.9%，是2024年4月以来的最高增速。 日前，国新办举行新闻发布会，国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司 ...

截至2025年6月18日 09:39，中证主要消费指数(000932)上涨0.82%，成分股燕京啤酒(000729)上涨3.58%，今世缘(603369)上涨2.96%，古井贡酒(000596)上涨 1.87%，山西汾酒(600809)上涨1.79%，海大集团(002311)上涨1.78%。主要消费ETF(159672)上涨0.93%，最新价报0.76元。 东海证券指出，随着气温升高，啤酒消费进入旺季，叠加消费政策提振，啤酒销量有望修复延续。燕京啤酒近日召开分析师及投资者交流会，公司表示，产 品端，1-5月U8依然保持较高增长速度。渠道端，1）线下：1>即饮：公司一方面深挖基地市场终端U8单店销量占比，另一方面，加大弱势市场的建设力 度，以百县工程、百城工程为抓手，总部与分公司共同建设拓展。2>非即饮，以提升罐化率提升为抓手发力零售渠道。2)线上：积极拥抱即时零售渠道，可 有效冲破弱势市场餐饮渠道的壁垒，近几年公司每个月都实现正增长。 从收益能力看，截至2025年6月17日，主要消费ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为24.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为5.70%，上涨月份平均收 益率为4.87%。 ...

Group 1: Industry Performance - In May, the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol reached 48.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.2%, significantly higher than the overall retail sales growth of 6.4% [1] - The strong performance in the tobacco and alcohol sector is attributed to the Labor Day holiday, which led to increased demand for social gatherings and gifts [1] Group 2: Consumer Protection and Brand Integrity - Wuliangye has issued a consumer notice addressing the issue of counterfeit products being sold on e-commerce platforms, specifically denying the existence of a product called "Light Bottle Eighth Generation Wuliangye" [2] - The statement highlights the challenges of combating counterfeit products in the alcohol industry, especially in the e-commerce era, and emphasizes the need for collaboration between brands, platforms, and regulatory bodies [2] Group 3: Company Strategy and Market Position - Yanghe Co. stated that the long-term value of the liquor industry remains unchanged despite environmental fluctuations, emphasizing the industry's resilience and essential role in Chinese life [3] - The company is implementing strategies to support distributors, manage inventory, and focus on core products and markets, reflecting a strategic approach to navigate current market pressures [3] - Yanghe's long-term growth potential is supported by its high-end product positioning and national expansion plans, with expectations of improved competitive positioning as consumer confidence recovers [3]

(Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 研究报告 Research Report 17 Jun 2025 洋河股份 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock (002304 CH) 洋河股份跟踪报告：以长期主义应对下行周期 Responding to down cycles with long-termism [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb65.88 目标价 Rmb84.00 HTI ESG 3.3-3.4-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 义利评级 A 来源 : 盟浪 . Reproduced by permission; no further distribution 市值 Rmb99.24bn / US$13.82bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$58.07m ...

截至2025年6月17日 13:49，中证主要消费指数(000932)盘中震荡。成分股方面涨跌互现，山西汾酒(600809)领涨1.79%，梅花生物(600873)上涨1.60%，洽洽 食品(002557)上涨1.48%；新诺威(300765)领跌3.06%，东鹏饮料(605499)下跌2.34%，海大集团(002311)下跌2.24%。主要消费ETF(159672)上涨0.13%，最新价 报0.75元。 东海证券指出，5月份以来，多地"禁酒令"积极落实中，针对时间、场景等的文件陆续发布，并严格执行。导致市场对白酒的担忧加剧。长期来看，新政将 推动白酒产业转型升级，通过品质创新满足更加多元化的消费需求。 该机构表示，新政落实叠加淡季需求较弱，另外近期电商补贴力度较大，导致部分高端酒批价波动下行。白酒板块估值处于底部区间，且基本面预期较低， 板块经过加速下跌后更具配置价值。白酒行业竞争加剧，分化集中趋势不变，头部酒企在品牌壁垒和战略升级中不断扩大市场份额，建议关注高端酒和区域 龙头。 从收益能力看，截至2025年6月16日，主要消费ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为24.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a bifurcation, with leading brands like Kweichow Moutai showing strong growth while others like Shede Liquor and Jiu Gui Liquor face significant declines [3][5] - The top six companies dominate over 85% of the industry's revenue and 90% of its profits, indicating a highly concentrated market [3] - The industry is at a crossroads, needing to adapt to changing consumer preferences and competition from international spirits [3][5] Industry Challenges - The liquor industry has entered a phase of slow growth, with annual increases of only 5%-8%, leading to intensified competition [5] - Price discrepancies between wholesale and retail have become a significant issue, with over 40% of distributors facing losses due to price inversions [5] - Traditional marketing strategies are failing, necessitating a shift towards deeper value-based competition [6] Changing Consumer Demographics - Only 9% of young people regularly consume liquor, compared to over 60% for wine and whiskey [7] - Female consumers now account for 29% of the market, significantly boosting the repurchase rates of fruit-flavored liquors [7] - There is a growing demand for healthier options, with searches for "healthy liquor" increasing by 103% post-pandemic [7] Consumption Trends - Traditional drinking culture is being replaced by diverse social settings, with products under 38 degrees Celsius seeing a growth rate of 31% [10] - Self-consumption is now a significant trend, making up 41% of the market, with small bottle sizes (100-150ml) growing by 67% [10] - New social contexts like outdoor camping and interest-based gatherings are emerging as growth points [10] Value Perception Shift - Young consumers are changing their evaluation criteria for liquor, with 62% willing to try non-traditional flavors and 76% willing to pay a premium for sustainable products [11] - Packaging design is becoming a crucial factor in purchasing decisions for 43% of consumers [11] Strategic Paths for Growth - Leading companies are exploring four main strategies to navigate industry changes: product innovation, cultural empowerment, technology-driven quality assurance, and global market expansion [13] - Product innovation includes a focus on lower alcohol content and health-oriented offerings, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao increasing their low-alcohol product share from 15% to 50% [14] - Cultural initiatives, such as immersive tasting experiences and collaborations with heritage brands, are enhancing emotional connections with consumers [15] - Technological advancements are being leveraged to ensure quality and transparency, with Moutai's visual system covering 85% of its production [17] - Global expansion efforts are yielding results, with liquor exports growing by 8.91% and leading companies achieving over 15% growth in overseas revenues [18] Future Competitive Landscape - The competition in the liquor market will focus on three strategic areas: capturing the young consumer mindset, health and technology integration, and establishing global standards [21] - The market for light spirits is expected to exceed 150 billion yuan by 2025, indicating a significant opportunity for brands targeting younger demographics [21] - Companies are increasingly prioritizing quality over quantity, shifting from growth-driven strategies to those focused on enhancing product value [22]

编号：2025-003 | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 关系活 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | 动类别 | | | | ☑现场参观 | | | ☑其他（股东大会） | | 活动参 | 洋河股份：张联东、陈军、李笋、尹秋明； | | 与人员 | 投资者：参加股东大会现场交流的股东及投资者 195 人 | | 时间 | 2025 年 6 月 12 日 | | 地点 | 宿迁恒力国际大酒店 | | 形式 | 现场交流 | | | 公司召开了 年度股东大会，现将股东大会现场交流的主要内容整理如下： 2024 | | | 一、对白酒行业形势的研判及未来发展的思考？ | | | 白酒是具有高度文化属性的行业，是生活产品、情感产品和情绪产品，白酒行 | | | 业具有超强的韧性、长周期性，作为消费品的本质没有改变，在国人生活中的位置 | | 交流内 | 不可替代。白酒行业会面临周期调整，但长期价值不会随环境变化而改变。 | | 容及具 | 当下大众消费、商务消费已成为白酒消费的主要来源，消费分层与理性化趋势 | | 体问答 | 显 ...

飞天茅台跌破2000元是白酒股阴跌的"导火索"。 曾经一瓶难求的飞天茅台，如今终端市场价格持续松动，批发价失守2000元大关，渠道库存压力成为行 业公开的秘密。白酒市场，尤其是高端白酒，正经历前所未有的寒潮。 近一年多来，头部白酒企业控费降本、优化营销、改善库存，多措并举并没提振市场的信心。无论是阴 跌不止的股价，还是业绩表现，都表明白酒行业仍在寻底。 白酒仍在寻底 6月16日，申万白酒指数收跌0.2%，年内下跌10.73%，并创下去年9月24日以来新低。当日早盘，贵州 茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒等头部白酒股纷纷低开，延续近期弱势走势。截至收盘，贵州茅台险守1400 元，创下2月11日以来收盘新低，五粮液、泸州老窖、洋河股份等白酒股均创年内新低或"924行情"以来 新低。 白酒股的疲态从5月中旬就已显露。申万白酒指数5月15日至今累计下跌13.25%，较2021年历史高点累 计回撤近44%。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [起始交易日期] 本年初 [截止交易日期] 最新收盘日 [車位] ~1 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the pet food and snack segments continue to show strong performance, while the liquor sector is experiencing a downturn, with concerns over inventory and demand impacting sentiment [14][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies managing supply and maintaining prices in response to market conditions, particularly in the liquor industry [14]. - E-commerce performance in snacks, health products, and pet food is expected to be strong, with a notable 16% year-on-year increase in sales for pet food across major platforms [14]. Summary by Relevant Sections Core Company Tracking - **Yanghe Co.**: Acknowledges issues and plans for deep adjustments, with inventory down 10% year-on-year. The company aims to reduce expenses and promote high-quality products [9]. - **New Dairy Industry**: Focuses on product innovation and differentiation, with a strong supply chain and a third of its milk sourced from its own farms [10]. - **Tianwei Foods**: Reports positive revenue growth in April-May, driven by improved sales and custom business growth, with a healthy inventory [11]. - **Haitian Flavor Industry**: Experiences slower shipping progress due to weak restaurant demand, but maintains a steady pace in overseas expansion [12]. - **Ximai Foods**: Achieves rapid online growth and aims for double-digit growth offline, focusing on product innovation and member engagement [12]. - **Good Idea**: Implements cost control measures and emphasizes profit assessment, with a focus on promoting specific product lines [13]. - **Kangshifu**: Faces revenue growth pressure but sees profit margin improvement due to price adjustments and raw material cost reductions [13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with new product and channel catalysts, such as Youyou Foods, New Dairy Industry, and Ximai Foods, as well as those with profit recovery potential like Good Idea [15]. - It highlights the seasonal sales improvement for brands like Qingdao Beer and Farmer Spring, and suggests monitoring opportunities in the pet food segment [15]. - Defensive stocks such as Yili and Mengniu are recommended, along with low-position opportunities in liquor companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [15]. Industry Valuation - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating market capitalization and projected earnings for the upcoming years, with Guizhou Moutai leading in market cap at 1792.5 billion [16].