Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term operational pressure but is focusing on long-term development through channel adjustments and product upgrades [1][3] - The company reported a revenue of 27.52 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%, and a net profit of 8.58 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year [1] - The company is actively restructuring its product offerings and enhancing brand value, particularly in high-end segments [3][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.64 billion yuan, a significant decline of 44.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 630 million yuan, down 73.0% year-on-year [1][2] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 66.2%, down 8.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to external environmental impacts [2] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 13.6%, a decrease of 14.2 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by rising expense ratios [2] Product and Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on product structure upgrades, particularly in its "Dream" series, and is adjusting its sales strategies to stabilize dealer confidence [1][3] - The company is enhancing its brand positioning by emphasizing the quality and rarity of its aged products, particularly in the high-end market [3][6] Market Outlook - The company anticipates continued pressure on sales and inventory clearance into 2024, with expectations of a gradual recovery post-inventory digestion [3][6] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 indicate a decline in sales, with expected revenues of 29.82 billion yuan in 2024, down 10.0% year-on-year, and a slight recovery in 2026 [4][6] Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 5.71 yuan for 2024, 5.58 yuan for 2025, and 6.10 yuan for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 14, and 13 respectively [3][4][6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 27.52 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.58 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 4.64 billion yuan, a significant decline of 44.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 630 million yuan, down 73.0% year-on-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company is undergoing a deep adjustment of its distribution channels to strengthen long-term development. In Q1 2024, the "Hai Zhi Lan" and "Meng 6+" products showed rapid growth. In Q2, the factory price of "Meng 6+" was raised, maintaining brand momentum. In Q3, sales weakened, prompting the company to adjust its collection requirements and focus on product structure upgrades [2]. - The company is enhancing its brand through high-quality expressions and emphasizing the scarcity value of aged liquor, aiming to establish a high-end brand benchmark [4]. Financial Metrics - In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 66.2%, down 8.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to external environmental impacts and a decline in product structure. The sales expense ratio increased by 12.3 percentage points to 27.8%, and the management expense ratio rose by 4.3 percentage points to 10.3% [3]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 13.6%, down 14.2 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the impact of rising expense ratios and a lack of revenue scale support [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects to continue reducing inventory at a slower pace, with sales volume projected to decline by 15.0% in 2024, followed by a 10.0% decline in 2025, before a slight recovery in 2026 [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 is 5.71 yuan, 5.58 yuan, and 6.10 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14x, 14x, and 13x [4][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.641 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 44.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 631 million yuan, down 73.03% year-on-year, which was below previous expectations [2][7]. - The company is currently facing high internal and external pressures, and Q4 is expected to continue adjustments, with hopes for improvement after inventory digestion [2][7]. - The company announced a cash dividend rate of no less than 70% and a total amount of no less than 7 billion yuan (including tax), which supports an estimated dividend yield of approximately 4.4% for 2024 [2][7]. - Given the guaranteed dividend, the investment value is maintained [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 27.516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.14%, and a net profit of 8.579 billion yuan, down 15.92% year-on-year [7]. - The Q3 gross margin was 66.24%, a decrease of 8.63 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to promotional discounts [7]. - The company expects revenues for 2024-2026 to be 29.029 billion yuan, 29.015 billion yuan, and 29.101 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.048 billion yuan, 8.061 billion yuan, and 8.097 billion yuan [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The estimated P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 15, 15, and 15 respectively [7][8]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 127.174 billion yuan [5]. - The current price per share is 84.63 yuan [5]. Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a cash dividend policy with a minimum payout ratio of 70%, which is expected to support investor confidence [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in Q3 2024, with total revenue of 46.41 billion yuan, down 44.82% year-on-year, and net profit of 6.31 billion yuan, down 73.03% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [1][2]. - The company is undergoing an accelerated adjustment to alleviate market pressure, focusing on inventory reduction and channel adjustments due to intense competition and weak demand in the industry [2][3]. - Profitability has been notably impacted by rising expense ratios, with a gross margin of 66.24%, down 8.63 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 13.61%, down 14.23 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 275.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.14%, and a net profit of 85.79 billion yuan, down 15.92% year-on-year [1]. - Q3 2024 saw a total revenue of 46.41 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.31 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline compared to the previous year [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - The revenue decline in Q3 was attributed to intensified competition in the Jiangsu market and overall weak industry demand, leading to a focus on inventory clearance [2]. - The sales cash collection in Q3 was 64.2 billion yuan, down 33.5% year-on-year, indicating pressure on cash flow [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downwards to 83.9 billion yuan, 84.6 billion yuan, and 89.7 billion yuan, representing reductions of 17.8%, 22.2%, and 22.6% respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14 for the forecasted years, with a projected dividend payout of 70 billion yuan for 2024, yielding a dividend rate of approximately 5.8% [4].

公司报告 | 季报点评 调整已至，静待改善 事件：2024Q3 公司营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 46.41/6.31/4.56 亿元（-44.82%/-73.03%/-81.41%）。 Q3 业绩低于预期，中高端和宴席市场有所承压。产品看：我们预计或因 为宴席渠道推广效果不及预期+中高端价位需求偏弱，我们预计中高档酒 承压。公司积极调整经营节奏，强化宴席等渠道，重视开瓶开箱及库存指 标，坚持深耕大本营、深度全国化，省外整体表现优于省内。 利润率受结构和费用影响，合同负债环比提升。 ①24Q3 公司毛利率/净利率分别同比变动-8.63/-14.38 个百分点至 66.24%/13.52%。 ②销售费用持续增加。24Q3 期间费用率增长明显，其中销售费用率/管理 费用率 / 财 务 费 用 率 分 别 同 比 +12.27/+4.26/-0.38 个 百 分 点 至 27.75%/10.26%/-2.62%。 ③合同负债环比提升，现金流有承压。24Q3 经营性现金流同比-65.31%至 14.15 亿元；合同负债同比/环比-9.98%/+26.11%至 49.66 亿元；税金及附加 占比同比+1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5][8] Core Insights - The company has experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2024, with revenue down 44.82% year-on-year and net profit down 73.03% [1][2] - The company is undergoing a deep adjustment in its market and product strategy, focusing on national market expansion and optimizing sales strategies [2] - Despite current challenges, the company's brand and channel capabilities are expected to support future growth, with a projected dividend yield of 5.8% providing a safety margin for investors [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 27.516 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.14% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.579 billion yuan, down 15.92% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.641 billion yuan and a net profit of 631 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 44.82% and 73.03%, respectively [1][2] - The company's sales net profit margin decreased by 14.39 percentage points to 13.52%, and gross profit margin decreased by 8.63 percentage points to 66.24% in Q3 2024 [2] Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 29.052 billion yuan, 27.221 billion yuan, and 28.419 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.951 billion yuan, 7.210 billion yuan, and 7.670 billion yuan [5][6] - The expected EPS for the same years is 5.28 yuan, 4.79 yuan, and 5.09 yuan, with P/E ratios of 15, 17, and 16, respectively [5][6]

洋河股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 002304） 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证 2024 年 11 月 02 日 报 告 基本数据 2024-11-01 当前股价（元） 80.52 总市值（亿元） 1213 总股本（百万股） 1506 流通股本（百万股） 1503 52 周价格范围（元） 72.16-121.7 日均成交额（百万元） 563.26 公 司 研 究 主动调整高质量，蓄势春节保进度 —洋河股份（002304.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 市场表现 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 洋河股份 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《洋河股份（002304）：开启改 革调整，强化分红回报》2024-09- 01 2、《洋河股份（002304）：聚焦七 个方面，深度全国化四步走》2024- 06-10 3、《洋河股份（002304）：业绩稳 健提升，市场运作策略清晰》2024- 04-29 2024 年 10 月 30 日，洋河股份发布 2024 年三季报。 投资要点 ▌业绩表现承压，盈利能力下降明显 主动降速调整，业绩承压明 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年11月01日 洋河股份（002304.SZ） 中性 第三季度加速调整，收入及净利润降幅环比扩大 2024 年第三季度公司收入同比-45%，归母净利润同比-73%。2024 年前三季度 公司实现营业总收入 275.2 亿元，同比-9.1%；实现归母净利润 85.8 亿元， 同比-15.9%；其中第三季度实现营业总收入 46.4 亿元，同比-44.8%；实现 归母净利润 6.31 亿元，同比-73.0%。第三季度公司加速释放渠道风险，收 入、净利润降幅环比 2024Q2 进一步扩大。 第三季度集中释放渠道风险，表内营收降幅较大。第三季度白酒行业需求进一 步走弱，省内市场竞争加剧，公司顺势降低经销商回款要求，同步减少出货 以缓解渠道库存压力，表内营收大幅下滑。单 Q3 看，中秋国庆动销期间公 司加大 M6+/水晶梦宴席政策、买赠力度，以价换量，稳固省内份额，实际 动销或好于表观；省内市场天之蓝、海之蓝预计同比降幅更大，主因产品处 于生命周期后段、同时大众价位竞争加剧导致动销偏慢。省外市场海之蓝消 费基础较好，预计表现好于省内。 货折力度加大、费用支出刚性，单三季度净利率降幅较大。2024 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——洋河股份 2024Q3 业绩点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.01 调整延续，静待回暖 洋河股份(002304) 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|-----------------------|-------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 訾猛 ( 分析师 ) | 李耀 ( 分析师 ) | | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38675854 | | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | liyao022899@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880520090001 | | 本报告导读： 2024Q3 公司业绩低于预期，深度调整延续；考虑到 ...