评级标准 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|---------------------------------|------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------|---------------------------------|---------------------|---------| | [Table_Money] 资产负债表（百万元） 2023A | | | 2024E 2025E | | 2026E 利润表（百万元） 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E | | | | | | 流动资产 7232.50 8266.55 9600. ...

6 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|------------------|------------|-------| | 营业收入（百万元） | | 6,806 | 7,708 | 8,674 | 9,663 | | 增长率（ %） | | -1.1 | 13.3 | 12.5 | 11.4 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | | 803 | 1,091 | 1,263 | 1,451 | | 增长率（%） | | -17.8 | 35.9 | 15.8 | 14.9 | | 每股收益（元） | | 1.58 | 2.15 | 2.49 | 2.86 | | PE | | 24 | 17 | 15 | 13 | | PB | | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | | 资料来源： Wind ，民生证券研究院预测；（注：股价为 | | 2024 | 年 4 月 30 | 日收盘价） | | [Table_Aut ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 41.23 CNY over the next six months, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 35.45 CNY [5][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a rapid revenue growth of 36.39% year-on-year in Q1 2024, achieving a revenue of 1.822 billion CNY. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 35.15% to 240 million CNY, with a non-recurring net profit growth of 55.80% [15][16]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to a reduction in procurement costs for sunflower seeds and an increase in the proportion of gift box sales, which positively impacted the gross margin, rising to 30.43% [16]. - The company is actively expanding its distribution channels, having added over 200 new distributors in county and township markets in 2023, and plans to continue this expansion [15][16]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 6.806 billion CNY in 2023 to 7.631 billion CNY in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.04% expected through 2026 [17]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 802.7 million CNY in 2023 to 1.045 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 30.20% [17]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.58 CNY in 2023 to 2.06 CNY in 2024, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20x for 2024 [15][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [10] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2024 revenue and profit that exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 681 million and a net profit of 80 million for 2023, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.9% and 15.1% respectively [9][11] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability for 2024 due to declining raw material costs and improved operational efficiency [12][13] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 6.81 billion and a net profit of 803 million, with a projected revenue of 7.73 billion and a net profit of 1.06 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.5% [15] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 30.1%, with a net margin of 13.8%, indicating a recovery from the previous year's lower margins [15] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 2.10, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.9 [15] Revenue and Profitability Drivers - The company has been focusing on expanding its distribution channels, particularly in rural areas and online platforms, which is expected to drive double-digit revenue growth in 2024 [13] - The shift in product mix towards higher-end offerings has contributed to an increase in average selling prices, supporting revenue growth despite volume declines in certain product categories [11][12]

证券代码：002557 证券简称：洽洽食品 洽洽食品股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2024-004 □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 投资者关系活动 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 类别 □现场参观 电话会议 □其他： （请文字说明其他活动内容） 参与单位名称 具体参与单位名称及人员姓名见附件。 及人员姓名 时间 2024年4 月30日 地点 公司会议室 公司接待人员 董事、副总经理、董事会秘书陈俊，证券事务代表杜君 姓名 主要内容： 一、一季度的销售费用率有提升，渠道的支持政策有没有什么变化？ 回答：公司一季度的销售费用率有所提升，主要是年货节期间在市场上 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|--------|-------|-------|-------| | [Table_Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 6883 | 6806 | 7589 | 8417 | 9284 | | 增长率（ % ） | 15.0% | -1.1% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 10.3% | | EBITDA （百万元） | 1220 | 989 | 1455 | 1680 | 1928 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 976 | 803 | 1107 | 1297 | 1499 | | 增长率（ % ） | 5.1% | -17.8% | 37.9% | 17.1% | 15.6% | | EPS （元 / 股） | 1.93 | 1.58 | 2.18 | 2.56 | 2.96 | | 市盈率（ P/E ） | 25.88 | 21.98 | 16.23 | 13.8 ...

食品饮料 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 05-0406-0407-0408-0409-0410-0411-0412-0401-0402-0403-0404-04 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 洽洽食品 沪深300指数（收益率） 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 熊智超 (8621)23297818× xiongzc@swsresearch.com 葵花子业务稳健，坚果业务高增。考虑春节错期影响，23Q4+24Q1 公司合计实现收入 41.49 亿，同比增长 8%。我们预计 23Q4+24Q1 葵花籽业务仍保持正增长。24Q1 分产 品看，我们预计 24Q1 瓜子同增超 20%，坚果业务因去年低基数影响，实现高双位数增长。 分月份来看，预计一月份受益于春节旺季备货以及去年低基数影响，实现高增，春节后主 要以消化库存为主。 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 信息披露 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第 3 页 共 3 页 简单金融 成就 ...

2023 年报点评：毛利率边际改善，分红率再 提升 2024 年 04 月 30 日 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·休闲食品 买入（首次） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2023 年全年：实现营收 68.1 亿元，同比-1.1%；归母净利润 8.0 亿元， 同比-17.8%；扣非净利润 7.1 亿元，同比-16.2%。 ◼ 春节错期收入承压，坚果增长延续。分产品来看，23 年坚果类/葵花子/ 其 他 产 品 分 别 实 现 营 收 17.53/42.70/7.16 亿 元 ， 同 比 +8.00%/- 5.36%/+1.51%。外部需求疲软，公司 23Q3 主动控货，23Q4 春节错期致 使收入承压，坚果全年延续增长。 2023 年：公司 23 年实现归母净利率 11.80%，同比-2.38pct，扣非净利 率 10.43%，同比-1.88pct。23 年实现毛利率 26.75%，销售费用率 9.06%， 毛销差 17.7%，同比-4.09pct，主因 2023 年全年瓜子原材料成本同比上 涨拖累。管理/研发/财务费用率分别为 4.25%/0.95%/-1.01%，同比0.7 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|--------|-------|-------|-------| | | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入 ( 百万 ) | 6,806 | 7,697 | 8,643 | 9,610 | | 同比增速 (%) | -1.1% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 11.2% | | 归母净利润 ( 百万 ) | 803 | 1,066 | 1,250 | 1,438 | | 同比增速 (%) | -17.8% | 32.8% | 17.3% | 15.0% | | 每股盈利 ( 元 ) | 1.58 | 2.10 | 2.47 | 2.84 | | 市盈率 ( 倍 | ) 22 | 16 | 14 | 12 | | 市净率 ( 倍 ) | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 休闲食品 2024 年 04 月 30 日 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------| | | | ...

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 买入（维持评级） 4 月 29 日公司发布 2024 年一季报，报告期内公司实现营业收入 18.22 亿元，同比+36.39%；实现归母净利润 2.40 亿元，同比 +35.15%；扣非归母净利润 2.21 亿元，同比+55.80%。 食品饮料组 分析师：刘宸倩（执业 S1130519110005） liuchenqian@gjzq.com.cn 联系人：陈宇君 chenyujun@gizg.com.cn 1.《洽洽食品公司点评：需求+成本集中承压，24 年有望 改善》, 2024.4.26 2.《洽洽食品公司点评： 动销环比改善，期待利润修 复》, 2023.10.27 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|--------|---------|--------|--------|--------| | 公司基本情况（人民币） \n项目 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 (百万元) | 6,883 | 6,806 ...