证券研究报告|公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 10 日 龙佰集团（002601.SZ） 钛白粉量价齐升推动业绩增长，看好公司上游钛矿布局及钪钒新材 料项目 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 24,113 | 26,765 | 29,913 | 33,856 | 37,558 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 17.2 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 10.9 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,419 | 3,226 | 3,483 | 4,326 | 5,141 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | -26.9 | -5.6 | 8.0 | 24.2 | 18.8 | | ROE （ % ） | 15.2 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 13.7 | | EPS ...

业绩稳步增长，持续深化资源和产业链优势 投资要点 事件：龙佰集团发布 2024 半年报，24H1 实现收入 138.04 亿元，同比增长 4.09%； 归母净利润 17.21 亿元，同比增长 36.40%；扣非归母净利润 16.75 亿元，同比增长 40.06%；毛利率 27.53%，同比提升 2.42pct。单季度看，24Q2 实现收入 65.10 亿元， 同比增长 3.59%，环比下降 10.75%；归母净利润 7.70 亿元，同比增长 12.85%，环 比下降 19.00%；扣非归母净利润 7.50 亿元，同比增长 16.71%，环比下降 18.88%； 毛利率 26.68%，同比下滑 0.72pct，环比下滑 1.61pct。 一年股价表现 钛白粉先涨后跌，积极应对挑战，业绩稳步增长。2024 年上半年，国内外供需钛 维持紧平衡，钛矿价格维持高位震荡。2024 年上半年，中国钛白粉市场年初多为消 化库存加之认为价格已触底，备货需求增加，钛白价格开始回升，市场迎来三连涨， 价格稳中有升；随着市场淡季来临，企业出货压力大，价格竞争压力大，加之欧盟 反倾销事件影响，欧盟地区钛白出口受限，厂家库存压力增加，二 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is a global leader in the titanium dioxide industry, with significant integrated advantages and the ability to navigate industry cycles [2] - The company has the lowest production costs in the industry, creating a strong competitive moat [3] - The company has a high dividend payout policy, with an average dividend payout ratio of 72% over the past seven years [4] - The titanium dioxide industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with the company well-positioned to benefit from future growth due to its cost advantages and capacity expansion [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.8, 4.5, and 5.3 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of 1.59, 1.90, and 2.22 yuan [9] Company Overview - The company is the world's largest titanium dioxide producer, with an annual capacity of 1.51 million tons, and also the largest sponge titanium producer with an annual capacity of 80,000 tons [2] - The company has a fully integrated titanium industry chain, from titanium ore to titanium dioxide and titanium metal/derivatives, which provides significant cost advantages [2] - The company's titanium dioxide production cost in 2023 was 10,538 yuan/ton, significantly lower than its peers, ensuring profitability even during industry downturns [3] - The company plans to expand its titanium concentrate capacity to 2.5 million tons by 2025, further reducing production costs [3] Financial Performance - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with a total dividend payout of over 14.8 billion yuan in the past seven years [4] - In 2023, the company's dividend yield was 5.25%, well above the industry average [4] - The company's revenue grew from 2.06 billion yuan in 2014 to 26.79 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 33% [21] - Net profit grew from 63 million yuan in 2014 to 3.23 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 55% [21] - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.8 billion yuan, up 4.09% YoY, and net profit of 1.72 billion yuan, up 36.4% YoY [21] Industry Overview - The global titanium dioxide industry is highly concentrated, with the top six producers accounting for 52% of global capacity [31] - China is the largest producer of titanium dioxide, with a capacity of 5 million tons in 2022, accounting for 53% of global capacity [34] - Overseas titanium dioxide capacity is declining due to environmental pressures and high labor costs, with several major producers closing plants in recent years [35] - Domestic titanium dioxide capacity in China is expected to increase by 700,000 tons in 2024 and 840,000 tons in 2025, but future growth is limited due to environmental regulations [37] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The titanium dioxide industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with most companies operating at a loss [5] - The company's cost advantages allow it to remain profitable even during industry downturns [5] - The company has 250,000 tons of unutilized titanium dioxide capacity, which will contribute to future growth [5] - Domestic demand for titanium dioxide is expected to improve, driven by recovery in downstream industries such as plastics, paper, and coatings [40] - Export demand is also expected to grow, particularly in emerging markets such as India, Brazil, and Turkey [45] Cost Advantages - The company has the lowest production costs in the industry, with a fully integrated supply chain from titanium ore to titanium dioxide [3] - The company's titanium concentrate capacity is expected to double by 2025, further reducing production costs [3] - The company's vertical integration and scale advantages allow it to maintain a significant cost advantage over its peers [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.8, 4.5, and 5.3 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of 1.59, 1.90, and 2.22 yuan [9] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 10.1x, 8.5x, and 7.3x, respectively, indicating significant upside potential [9] - The company's strong cost advantages and capacity expansion plans position it well for future growth [5][9] Risks - Economic downturn risks [10] - Significant fluctuations in product prices [10] - Delays in project construction [10] - Environmental policy restrictions [10] - Lower-than-expected progress in equity incentives [10]

证 券 研 究 报 告 龙佰集团（002601）2024 年半年报点评 强推（维持） Q2 钛白粉价差环比小幅收窄，业绩符合预期 目标价：24.45 元 当前价：16.12 元 事项： 公司 2024 年上半年实现营收 138.04 亿元，同比+4.09%，实现归母净利润 17.21 亿元，同比+36.40%。其中 Q2 实现营收 65.10 亿元，同比+3.59%/环比-10.75%， 实现归母净利润 7.70 亿元，同比+12.85%/环比-19%，业绩符合预期。 评论： 产销数据：钛白粉产销持续增长，出口增速提升较快。1）钛白粉：24H1 公司 钛白粉产量 64.96 万吨（YOY+9.70%），其中硫酸法同比+16.31%，氯化法同 比-3.07%；销量 59.96 万吨（YOY+3.70%)，其中内销占比 41.39%/出口占比 58.61%。2）海绵钛：目前公司海绵钛产能为 8 万吨，24H1 产销分别为 3.31 （YOY+29.1%）/3.08（+60.3%）万吨。3）矿产品：24H1 铁精矿产量 154.82 万吨（YOY-13.6%）、钛精矿产量 104.56 万吨（YOY+73%）。4） ...

证券代码：002601 证券简称：龙佰集团 公告编号：2024-057 龙佰集团股份有限公司 关于公司股东股份解除质押的公告 备注：河南银泰投资有限公司、汤阴县豫鑫木糖开发有限公司系谭瑞清先生 控制的法人。 三、备查文件 一、股东股份解除质押基本情况 二、股东股份累计质押情况 截至公告披露日，上述股东及其一致行动人所持质押股份情况如下： | | | | | | | | 已质押股份 | | 未质押股份 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 占其 | 占公 | 情况 | | 情况 | | | 股东名称 | 持股数量 （股） | 持股 比例 （%） | 本次解除质 押前质押股 份数量（股） | 本次解除质 押后质押股 份数量（股） | 所持 股份 比例 | 司总 股本 比例 | | 占已 | 未质押 | 占未 质押 | | | | | | | | | 已质押股 | | | | | | | | | | | | 份限售和 | 质押 | 股份限 | | | | | | | | | | 冻结数量 ...

二、股东股份累计质押情况 截至公告披露日，上述股东及其一致行动人所持质押股份情况如下： | | | | | | | | 已质押股份 | | 未质押股份 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 占其 | 占公 | 情况 | | 情况 | | | 股东名称 | 持股数量 | 持股 | 本次质押前 | 本次质押后 | 所持 | 司总 | | 占已 | 未质押 | 占未 | | | | 比例 | 质押股份数 | 质押股份数 | 股份 | 股本 | 已质押股 | 质押 | 股份限 | 质押 | | | （股） | （%） | 量（股） | 量（股） | 比例 | 比例 | 份限售和 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 股份 | 售和冻 | 股份 | | | | | | | （%） | （%） | 冻结数量 | | | | | | | | | | | | （股） | 比例 | 结数量 | 比例 | | | | | | | | | | （%） | （股） | （%） | | 谭瑞清 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Longbai Group [2] Core Views - Longbai Group's core business, particularly in titanium dioxide and sponge titanium, has shown good growth, contributing to the company's overall performance [2] - The company is actively expanding its upstream mineral resources to strengthen its integrated supply chain advantages [2] - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2024-2026, predicting net profits of 36.15 billion, 42.25 billion, and 48.77 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.52, 1.77, and 2.05 [2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, Longbai Group achieved revenue of 137.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.10%, and a net profit of 17.21 billion, up 36.40% year-on-year [2] - The titanium dioxide business revenue grew by 6.78% to 93.85 billion, with sales volume increasing by 3.7% to 599,600 tons [2] - Sponge titanium revenue increased by 21.47% to 13.19 billion, with sales volume rising by 60.32% to 30,800 tons [2] Production Capacity and Resource Development - Longbai Group is a leading player in the titanium dioxide industry, with a production capacity of 1.51 million tons for titanium dioxide and 80,000 tons for sponge titanium, ranking among the top globally [2][3] - The company is developing joint mining projects to significantly enhance its controlled resources of vanadium-titanium magnetite, laying a solid foundation for future raw material supply [2] Strategic Partnerships - Longbai Group has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Sichuan Natural Resources Group to collaborate in various fields, including mining, vanadium-titanium industry, and titanium concentrate trade [2]

证券代码：002601 证券简称：龙佰集团 公告编号：2024-055 龙佰集团股份有限公司 关于回购公司股份的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 截至 2024 年 8 月 31 日，公司通过股份回购专用证券账户以集中竞价方式累 计回购公司股份 9,441,100 股，占公司目前总股本的 0.3956%，最高成交价为 18.30 元/股，最低成交价为 15.32 元/股，成交总金额为 159,981,571 元（不含交易费用）。 本次回购符合相关法律法规的要求，符合既定的回购股份方案。 二、其他事项说明 公司回购股份的时间、回购股份的数量、回购股份价格及集中竞价交易的委 托时段等均符合《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 9 号——回购股份》 的相关规定，具体说明如下： 龙佰集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2024年6月17日召开的第八 届董事会第十二次会议，审议通过了《关于回购公司股份方案的议案》，同意公 司使用自有资金以集中竞价的方式回购公司股份，回购股份的种类为公司已发行 的人民币普通股（A股）股票，将用于股权激励或员工持 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 13.792 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.10%. The total profit reached 2.114 billion yuan, up 34.96%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.721 billion yuan, increasing by 36.40% [5][6]. - The company sold 599,600 tons of titanium dioxide in the first half of 2024, a growth of 3.70% year-on-year, with domestic sales accounting for 41.39% and international sales for 58.61% [5]. - The company continues to strengthen its integrated supply chain layout, with titanium dioxide production capacity of 1.51 million tons per year and sponge titanium capacity of 80,000 tons per year, ranking among the top globally [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 26.794 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9%. The net profit is expected to be 3.226 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 5.6% [7][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.59 yuan, with a projected growth in net profit to 3.795 billion yuan in 2024, representing a growth of 17.6% [7][9]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 26.7% in 2023 to 28.0% in 2024, indicating a positive trend in profitability [9][10]. Strategic Developments - The company signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Sichuan Resources Group, which includes collaboration in mining rights and resource development [6]. - The company has made significant investments in expanding its production lines, including a 400,000-ton chloride titanium dioxide production line and various green manufacturing projects [5][6].

[Table_Title] 钛白粉产销量再创新高，钛精矿景气延续 ——龙佰集团（002601）2024 年中报点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------------------------------------------|-------| | 2024 | 年 08 月 30 日 | | | 研究所： 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | | 联系人 ： | 仲逸涵 S0350123070022 zhongyh@ghzq.com.cn | | 最近一年走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-----------|--------|--------------------| | 相对沪深 300 \n表现 | 表现 \n1M | 3M | 2024/08/30 \n 12M | | 龙佰集团 | -2.0% ...