国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.22 龙佰集团(002601) ——龙佰集团更新点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | 分析师 ) | | | | 0755-23976795 | | | | shenwei024936@gtjas.com | | | | S0880523080006 | | | | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-----------------------------| | | | | | | | 钟浩 ( 分析师 ) | 王瑞健 ( 研究助理 ) | | 021-38038445 | 021-38031022 | | zhonghao027638@gtjas.com | wangruijian028700@gtjas.com | | S0880522120008 ...

分析师：顾敏豪 登记编码：S0730512100001 gumh00@ccnew.com 021-50586308 化学原料 钛白粉盈利提升带动上半年增长，全产业 链优势进一步巩固 ——龙佰集团(002601)中报点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告|公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 10 日 龙佰集团（002601.SZ） 钛白粉量价齐升推动业绩增长，看好公司上游钛矿布局及钪钒新材 料项目 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 24,113 | 26,765 | 29,913 | 33,856 | 37,558 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 17.2 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 10.9 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,419 | 3,226 | 3,483 | 4,326 | 5,141 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | -26.9 | -5.6 | 8.0 | 24.2 | 18.8 | | ROE （ % ） | 15.2 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 13.7 | | EPS ...

业绩稳步增长，持续深化资源和产业链优势 投资要点 事件：龙佰集团发布 2024 半年报，24H1 实现收入 138.04 亿元，同比增长 4.09%； 归母净利润 17.21 亿元，同比增长 36.40%；扣非归母净利润 16.75 亿元，同比增长 40.06%；毛利率 27.53%，同比提升 2.42pct。单季度看，24Q2 实现收入 65.10 亿元， 同比增长 3.59%，环比下降 10.75%；归母净利润 7.70 亿元，同比增长 12.85%，环 比下降 19.00%；扣非归母净利润 7.50 亿元，同比增长 16.71%，环比下降 18.88%； 毛利率 26.68%，同比下滑 0.72pct，环比下滑 1.61pct。 一年股价表现 钛白粉先涨后跌，积极应对挑战，业绩稳步增长。2024 年上半年，国内外供需钛 维持紧平衡，钛矿价格维持高位震荡。2024 年上半年，中国钛白粉市场年初多为消 化库存加之认为价格已触底，备货需求增加，钛白价格开始回升，市场迎来三连涨， 价格稳中有升；随着市场淡季来临，企业出货压力大，价格竞争压力大，加之欧盟 反倾销事件影响，欧盟地区钛白出口受限，厂家库存压力增加，二 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is a global leader in the titanium dioxide industry, with significant integrated advantages and the ability to navigate industry cycles [2] - The company has the lowest production costs in the industry, creating a strong competitive moat [3] - The company has a high dividend payout policy, with an average dividend payout ratio of 72% over the past seven years [4] - The titanium dioxide industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with the company well-positioned to benefit from future growth due to its cost advantages and capacity expansion [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.8, 4.5, and 5.3 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of 1.59, 1.90, and 2.22 yuan [9] Company Overview - The company is the world's largest titanium dioxide producer, with an annual capacity of 1.51 million tons, and also the largest sponge titanium producer with an annual capacity of 80,000 tons [2] - The company has a fully integrated titanium industry chain, from titanium ore to titanium dioxide and titanium metal/derivatives, which provides significant cost advantages [2] - The company's titanium dioxide production cost in 2023 was 10,538 yuan/ton, significantly lower than its peers, ensuring profitability even during industry downturns [3] - The company plans to expand its titanium concentrate capacity to 2.5 million tons by 2025, further reducing production costs [3] Financial Performance - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with a total dividend payout of over 14.8 billion yuan in the past seven years [4] - In 2023, the company's dividend yield was 5.25%, well above the industry average [4] - The company's revenue grew from 2.06 billion yuan in 2014 to 26.79 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 33% [21] - Net profit grew from 63 million yuan in 2014 to 3.23 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 55% [21] - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.8 billion yuan, up 4.09% YoY, and net profit of 1.72 billion yuan, up 36.4% YoY [21] Industry Overview - The global titanium dioxide industry is highly concentrated, with the top six producers accounting for 52% of global capacity [31] - China is the largest producer of titanium dioxide, with a capacity of 5 million tons in 2022, accounting for 53% of global capacity [34] - Overseas titanium dioxide capacity is declining due to environmental pressures and high labor costs, with several major producers closing plants in recent years [35] - Domestic titanium dioxide capacity in China is expected to increase by 700,000 tons in 2024 and 840,000 tons in 2025, but future growth is limited due to environmental regulations [37] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The titanium dioxide industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with most companies operating at a loss [5] - The company's cost advantages allow it to remain profitable even during industry downturns [5] - The company has 250,000 tons of unutilized titanium dioxide capacity, which will contribute to future growth [5] - Domestic demand for titanium dioxide is expected to improve, driven by recovery in downstream industries such as plastics, paper, and coatings [40] - Export demand is also expected to grow, particularly in emerging markets such as India, Brazil, and Turkey [45] Cost Advantages - The company has the lowest production costs in the industry, with a fully integrated supply chain from titanium ore to titanium dioxide [3] - The company's titanium concentrate capacity is expected to double by 2025, further reducing production costs [3] - The company's vertical integration and scale advantages allow it to maintain a significant cost advantage over its peers [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.8, 4.5, and 5.3 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of 1.59, 1.90, and 2.22 yuan [9] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 10.1x, 8.5x, and 7.3x, respectively, indicating significant upside potential [9] - The company's strong cost advantages and capacity expansion plans position it well for future growth [5][9] Risks - Economic downturn risks [10] - Significant fluctuations in product prices [10] - Delays in project construction [10] - Environmental policy restrictions [10] - Lower-than-expected progress in equity incentives [10]

证 券 研 究 报 告 龙佰集团（002601）2024 年半年报点评 强推（维持） Q2 钛白粉价差环比小幅收窄，业绩符合预期 目标价：24.45 元 当前价：16.12 元 事项： 公司 2024 年上半年实现营收 138.04 亿元，同比+4.09%，实现归母净利润 17.21 亿元，同比+36.40%。其中 Q2 实现营收 65.10 亿元，同比+3.59%/环比-10.75%， 实现归母净利润 7.70 亿元，同比+12.85%/环比-19%，业绩符合预期。 评论： 产销数据：钛白粉产销持续增长，出口增速提升较快。1）钛白粉：24H1 公司 钛白粉产量 64.96 万吨（YOY+9.70%），其中硫酸法同比+16.31%，氯化法同 比-3.07%；销量 59.96 万吨（YOY+3.70%)，其中内销占比 41.39%/出口占比 58.61%。2）海绵钛：目前公司海绵钛产能为 8 万吨，24H1 产销分别为 3.31 （YOY+29.1%）/3.08（+60.3%）万吨。3）矿产品：24H1 铁精矿产量 154.82 万吨（YOY-13.6%）、钛精矿产量 104.56 万吨（YOY+73%）。4） ...

公 司 研 究 龙佰集团（002601.SZ）：核心业务 增长较好，持续布局产业链资源 2024 年 9 月 2 日 强烈推荐/维持 龙佰集团 公司报告 龙佰集团发布 2024 年中报：公司 2024 年上半年实现营业收入 137.91 亿元， YoY+4.10%，归母净利润 17.21 亿元，YoY+36.40%。 钛白粉等核心业务增长较好，带动公司业绩增长。从收入端看，2024 年上半 年，钛白粉业务营收同比增长 6.78%至 93.85 亿元，其中钛白粉销量同比增长 3.7%至 59.96 万吨；海绵钛业务营收同比增长 21.47%至 13.19 亿元，其中海 绵钛销量同比增长 60.32%至 3.08 万吨；铁系产品、锆系产品、新能源材料业 务营收有所下滑。从利润端看，公司综合毛利率同比提升 2.42 个百分点至 27.53%，带动公司净利润增长。 钛白粉行业龙头丰富产品结构，持续布局上游矿产资源，强化产业链一体化优 势。公司钛白粉与海绵钛产能规模均居世界前列，目前拥有钛白粉产能 151 万 吨、海绵钛产能 8 万吨。上游原料矿产资源方面，公司积极建设两矿联合开发 项目，大幅提升公司控制的钒钛磁铁矿资 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/化工/基础化工材料制品 证券研究报告 龙佰集团（002601）公司半年报点评 2024 年 09 月 02 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 08[Table_StockInfo 月 29日收盘价（元）] 15.82 52 周股价波动（元） 15.12-23.20 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） 2386/2365 总市值/流通市值（百万元） 37751/37412 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《2023 年营业收入同比实现正增长，积极提 升钛精矿自给率》2024.05.12 《 2023 年 公 司 季 度 净 利 润 持 续 改 善 》 2023.10.27 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 龙佰集团 海通综指 -21.52% -11.52% -1.52% 8.48% 18.48% 28.48% 2023/8 2023/11 2024/2 2024/5 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------|------ ...

[Table_Title] 钛白粉产销量再创新高，钛精矿景气延续 ——龙佰集团（002601）2024 年中报点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------------------------------------------|-------| | 2024 | 年 08 月 30 日 | | | 研究所： 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | | 联系人 ： | 仲逸涵 S0350123070022 zhongyh@ghzq.com.cn | | 最近一年走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-----------|--------|--------------------| | 相对沪深 300 \n表现 | 表现 \n1M | 3M | 2024/08/30 \n 12M | | 龙佰集团 | -2.0% ...

公司研究 产销提升 24H1 业绩稳步增长，与四川资源合作深化上游布局 ——龙佰集团（002601.SZ）2024 年半年报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年半年度报告。2024 年上半年，公司实现营收 137.92 亿 元，同比增长 4.1%；实现归母净利润 17.21 亿元，同比增长 36.4%；实现扣非 后归母净利润 16.75 亿元，同比增长 40.1%。2024Q2，公司单季度实现营收 65.10 亿元，同比增长 3.6%，环比减少 10.8%；实现归母净利润 7.70 亿元，同比增 长 12.8%，环比减少 19.0%。 产销再创新高，24H1 业绩稳步增长。2024 年上半年，公司钛白粉业务实现营 收 93.85 亿元，同比增长 6.8%，对应毛利率同比提升 7.7pct 至 33.5%。24H1， 公司实现钛白粉销量 59.96 万吨，同比增长 3.7%，其中硫酸法钛白粉销量为 41.86 万吨，同比增加 6.2%，氯化法钛白粉销量为 18.10 万吨，同比减少 1.7%。 24H1，公司钛白粉国际销量占比同比提升 0.3pct 至 58.6%。24H1，公司生产 钛精矿 104.56 ...