智通财经APP获悉，东兴证券发布研报称，2025年，化工品价格指数小幅震荡下行，化工行业仍处于低 景气阶段，但目前全球能源类成本已从高位回落，同时，从供给、需求、库存角度看，行业已出现积极 变化。展望2026年国内化工行业，供需格局有望改善，建议关注行业景气有望回升的子行业，如钛白 粉、部分农药品种、化纤、制冷剂等；资本开支和研发共同驱动中长期增长的龙头企业；受益于需求增 加或国产替代持续推进的部分高端化工新材料，如电子化工材料、高端陶瓷材料等。 从需求端来看，国内制造业需求弱复苏，新兴领域或带来增量；此外，大规模设备更新、消费品以旧换 新等具体政策，也有助于拉动汽车、家电产业链相关化工品的需求。因此国内部分化工子行业的供需格 局有改善趋势，看好钛白粉、部分农药品种、化纤、制冷剂等子行业的供需格局有望逐步好转。 (2)资本开支和研发共同驱动中长期增长的龙头企业。经历供给侧改革之后，国内化工行业的集中度已 经有了较大的提升。未来，受到环保、安全、能耗等政策限制，化工行业资本开支向龙头集聚，投资方 向主要是聚焦原有产品产能扩张、围绕产业链向下游高附加值产品延伸、或通过研发驱动向更多高壁垒 的精细化学品和新材料领域 ...

化工行业：行业有望底部回暖，供需格局 或迎积极变化 2025 年 12 月 18 日 看好/维持 化工 行业报告 ——化工行业 2026 年策略报告 | | | 投资摘要 我国化工行业景气有望底部回暖，行业供需格局预期改善。2025 年，化工品价格指数小幅震荡下行，化工行业仍处于低景 气阶段，但目前全球能源类成本已从高位回落，同时，从供给、需求、库存角度看，行业已出现积极变化。具体来说，供给 端化工行业投资增速持续放缓，反内卷政策引导行业自律，叠加海外老旧化工品产能退出力度加大，供给端压力有所减轻； 需求端传统需求弱复苏，新兴产业有望带来增量；库存端去库存周期结束，已现小幅补库迹象。综合来看，在行业供需格局 预期改善的背景下，我国化工行业景气有望边际改善。 展望 2026 年，随着化工品供需格局改善，以及原油、煤炭等大宗原材料价格回落、行业成本压力有所缓解，我们认为处于 中游的化工行业景气度有望改善，并迎来布局良机。我们建议重点关注以下三大投资方向： （1）供需格局有望改善、行业景气有望回升的子行业。结合前述我们对于国内化工供给和需求格局的分析，我们认为，从 供给端来看，受到行业竞争加剧、市场价格下行、投资回 ...

Core Insights - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with expectations of gradual recovery driven by global economic growth and demand increase [2][5][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side dynamics, noting the retreat of foreign investment and the slowdown of domestic capacity expansion, which may lead to a turning point for the industry [2][5][36] - Key recommendations include focusing on cyclical resilient and growth sectors such as industrial silicon, organic silicon, PTA, spandex, caprolactam, soda ash, and chlor-alkali, as well as high-demand products like refrigerants and potassium fertilizers [2][5][6] Demand Side Analysis - The chemical industry is closely tied to global economic performance, with a projected global GDP growth of 3.09% in 2026, driven mainly by developing countries like India [22][25] - China's GDP growth is expected to be 4.16% in 2026, indicating robust domestic demand [22][25] - Emerging sectors such as new energy and AI are expected to drive material consumption, with significant growth in electric vehicle sales and energy storage capacity anticipated [27][29] Supply Side Dynamics - The report highlights the challenges faced by foreign chemical giants due to rising energy costs and increased competition, leading to significant profit declines [36][41] - Major foreign companies are closing high-cost production facilities in Europe, which may create opportunities for domestic players [36][41][47] - Domestic chemical companies are experiencing pressure on investment returns, leading to a slowdown in capital expenditure growth and a pause in new capacity plans [49] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on cyclical resilient products and growth sectors, with specific attention to high-quality companies that possess competitive advantages [6][36] - The potential for price increases or stable prices with volume growth in bottom-tier products is emphasized, particularly in industrial silicon and organic silicon [6][36] - The report also identifies opportunities in the tire and civil explosives sectors, particularly as companies expand internationally [7][36] Emerging Opportunities - New material sectors, including humanoid robots and AI materials, are highlighted as areas of potential growth, driven by domestic policy support and the need for localized supply chains [8][36] - The report notes the increasing importance of domestic production capabilities in high-end materials due to international trade tensions [8][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [5] Core Views - The political bureau meeting emphasized the implementation of more proactive macro policies and the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, which is expected to provide a clearer reversal signal for the chemical industry at the bottom of the cycle [2][3] - The chemical industry is currently at a historical low valuation, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.2, indicating significant upside potential [2][18] - The report highlights the importance of supply-side optimization and the potential for price recovery in industries with high concentration and low profitability [3][20] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights of the Week - The report discusses the impact of the geopolitical situation on oil prices, with Brent oil closing at $61.28 per barrel, down $2.47 (-3.9%) from the previous week [17] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown unexpected recovery, which has increased attention on the chemical sector [18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The chemical sector index decreased by 2.2% in the week, ranking 26th among 31 industry sectors [24] - Year-to-date, the chemical sector index has increased by 25.0%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 9.0% [24][27] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the chemical sector, 97 stocks rose while 325 fell during the week [32] - The top gainers included companies like Bluestar Technology (+18.1%) and Qiaoyuan Co. (+15.2%) [34] 4. Key Investment Themes - **Theme One**: Focus on upstream resource assets with strong profit certainty, such as phosphorus and sulfur [19] - **Theme Two**: Emphasis on supply-side optimization and price elasticity in sectors like organic silicon and PTA [20] - **Theme Three**: Attention to low-valued leading companies in the sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hengli Petrochemical [22] - **Theme Four**: Investment in new productive forces aligned with green energy and semiconductor materials [23]

龙佰集团的前身是一家经营困难的地方国企，产品线涵盖硫酸铝、锆盐和当时排名全国六七十位的钛白 粉。公司改制完成后，企业的未来发展方向曾一度困扰管理层。 "我们看到所有色彩的差异性，都需要一个共同的'底色'作为基础。钛白粉恰恰是目前遮盖率最好的白 色无机颜料。"龙佰集团董事长和奔流在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示。 在钛产业的赛道上，从作为世界色彩"底色"的钛白粉，到支撑航空航天、海洋工程与高端制造的高性能 金属材料海绵钛，一家来自河南焦作的企业——龙佰集团在专注与创新中，坚持内涵式增长与外延式扩 张双轮驱动，如今已经成长为相关领域的龙头企业。 面对外界对于公司市值重回千亿元目标的质疑，和奔流掷地有声地表示："虽有压力，但坚信任何企业 的发展，绝非阶梯式，而是波浪式前进。""十五五"期间，龙佰集团将围绕"全球钛基材料产业领导 者"的目标，聚焦主业，以更加开放的姿态拥抱全球市场。 深耕主业持续创新 "从一家名不见经传的地方企业走向全国，走向世界，创新始终是我们发展的核心驱动力。"和奔流说。 "我们通过认真研判，认为钛白粉在未来的国民经济发展中会有很大的应用前景。因此，放弃发展硫酸 铝，放缓发展锆盐，集中全部资源重点发 ...

● 本报记者 李嫒嫒 "从一家名不见经传的地方企业走向全国，走向世界，创新始终是我们发展的核心驱动力。"和奔流说。 龙佰集团的前身是一家经营困难的地方国企，产品线涵盖硫酸铝、锆盐和当时排名全国六七十位的钛白 粉。公司改制完成后，企业的未来发展方向曾一度困扰管理层。 "我们通过认真研判，认为钛白粉在未来的国民经济发展中会有很大的应用前景。因此，放弃发展硫酸 铝，放缓发展锆盐，集中全部资源重点发展钛白粉。"和奔流坦言，"在这一发展过程中，外部'多彩世 界'的诱惑从未间断，但我们全部拒绝了。" 如今，龙佰集团已建立起全球领先的产能体系——钛白粉年产能达151万吨，海绵钛年产能达8万吨，均 位居全球首位。公司构建起从钛矿采选加工，到钛白粉、钛金属制造，再到衍生资源综合利用的完整绿 色产业链。 龙佰集团不断创新，提升工艺技术路线，率先引进国外大型沸腾氯化法钛白粉生产技术，成功实现了从 技术引进，到完全自主掌握核心知识产权，再到消化吸收再创新的跨越。 "2015年9月18日，我们通过三年的努力实现了大型沸腾氯化法钛白粉在焦作的生产，奠定了中国钛白粉 和海外钛白粉并驾齐驱的基础，为中国真正的钛产业时代的到来夯实基础。"和奔 ...

大象新闻记者 刘译丹 通讯员 杨雯雯 "低碳龙佰"战略，让龙佰集团实现生态效益与经济效益的协同增长，实现"绿色溢价"，让低碳成为龙佰 集团参与国际市场竞争的新名片。此外，龙佰集团还向下游客户提供碳足迹数据，将碳中和从成本中心 与环境责任确立为驱动企业增长、塑造竞争优势的核心战略。 本次会议汇聚行业主管部门、龙头企业及专家代表，围绕行业运行、技术创新、绿色转型等议题展开研 讨，进一步凝聚共识。 以"提质增效+协同共生"破局行业转型 在致辞中，和奔流直指行业痛点：2025年，中国钛白粉行业已进入转型关键期，虽在工艺升级、绿色改 造上取得进展，但原料与环保成本高企、供需失衡、同质化竞争压力、叠加国际贸易壁垒等挑战，正倒 逼行业从"规模增长"转向"价值提升"。为此，他提出两大破局方向：一是锚定提质增效，筑牢发展根 基。他呼吁企业聚焦工艺优化与产品升级，加快氯化法工艺、硫酸法产能升级改造，开发高附加值专用 产品；同时将合规经营作为底线，布局碳足迹管理与国际标准适配，夯实进军高端市场基础。二是深化 协同共生，凝聚行业合力。面对系统性风险，"单打独斗"已难以为继，需构建"价值共建、责任共担、 利益共享"的行业新生态：共护市 ...

作者：Sogear 11月26日，产能位居世界第一的龙佰集团（002601.SZ）宣布对旗下所有雪莲牌钛白粉产品价格进行调整，国内市场每吨上调700元，国际市场每吨上调100 美元。 在行业龙头龙佰集团的带动下，安纳达（002136.SZ）、钛能化学（002145.SZ）、道恩钛业、东佳集团、金海钛业等二十余家国内企业迅速跟进，提价范围 基本与龙佰集团保持一致。据大宗商品报价平台生意社数据，截至2025年11月底，国内硫酸法金红石型钛白粉报价达12900-13900元/吨之间，锐钛型钛白粉 报价达12000-12500元/吨之间。 钛白粉 成本高压下的"被动"涨价 钛白粉是重要的精细化工原料，主要应用于涂料、塑料、橡胶、油墨、造纸等领域。其生产工艺主要包括硫酸法和氯化法，钛精矿和硫酸是两大核心原料。 进入2025年，受全球供应链扰动、主要产地政策调整及海运成本持续高企影响，钛精矿价格始终在高位运行。据百川盈孚数据，截至2025年11月，46%钛精 矿价格稳定在2400元/吨左右，同比上涨超过15%。 2025年下半年以来，原料硫磺价格暴涨导致硫酸采购成本普遍攀升至900-1000元/吨历史高位。对于安纳达等拥 ...

Core Viewpoint - Titanium dioxide, known as titanium white, is a key chemical product and a barometer of economic development, with China holding significant influence in this sector, particularly through Longbai Group, which has become a global leader in titanium dioxide production [3][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Longbai Group, formerly known as Baililian, transformed into the largest titanium dioxide manufacturer in China after acquiring Longmang Titanium Industry in 2016 for 9 billion yuan, marking a significant merger in the industry [4]. - The acquisition allowed Longbai Group to control the entire supply chain from vanadium-titanium magnetite to titanium concentrate and titanium dioxide, enhancing its cost control capabilities [4][5]. - As of 2023, Longbai Group's titanium dioxide production capacity reached 1.51 million tons, surpassing international competitors and establishing it as the largest producer globally [5]. Group 2: Production and Cost Advantages - Longbai Group employs both sulfate and chloride processes for titanium dioxide production, with a focus on the more efficient chloride process, which is encouraged by the state [5]. - The company has a significant cost advantage, with production costs approximately 1,000 yuan per ton lower than its peers, providing a buffer during industry downturns [5][6]. - The innovative "sulfur-chlorine coupling" model recycles waste acid from the sulfate process, further reducing production costs and addressing environmental concerns [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Despite its strong production capacity and low costs, Longbai Group faced a decline in performance due to macroeconomic pressures and supply-demand imbalances, with a 6.9% year-on-year drop in revenue to 19.45 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders fell significantly by 34.7% to 1.67 billion yuan, with the third quarter alone seeing a 65.7% drop in net profit [10][12]. - The decline in profitability was primarily driven by falling titanium dioxide prices, despite record production and sales volumes [12]. Group 4: Market Challenges and Strategic Response - Longbai Group's international revenue decreased by 10.8% in the first half of 2025 due to anti-dumping investigations and high tariffs imposed by the EU, India, and Brazil [16][17]. - In response, the company is shifting its export focus to emerging markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, where demand is strong and trade barriers are lower [17]. - Longbai Group has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, distributing nearly all profits to shareholders, reflecting its commitment to returning value to investors [17].

东吴证券发布研报称，预计2025-2026年磷矿石新增需求482、612万吨，动储领域为主力。磷矿规划产 能与实际落地产能存在较大差距，主要原因是产能需要爬坡时间，且供给受环保安全事件影响程度较 大。看好兼具磷矿资源与磷酸铁产能的一体化企业。 价格展望 磷矿石：2024年我国磷矿石产能开工率58%，有效产能开工率95%。该行预计2025、2026年磷矿石供需 整体平衡，产能开工率57%、54%，而有效产能开工率92%、88%，仍保持较高水平。低品位磷矿石价 格可能略有承压，高品位磷矿石价格将维持高位。 磷酸铁：该行预计磷酸铁供需偏紧张，行业有效产能开工率已在2025Q3开始回暖，假设2025、2026年 磷酸铁有效产能开工率为60%、80%，我国磷酸铁仍存在供需缺口(2024年，我国磷酸铁有效产能开工率 仅有48%)。随着下游磷酸铁锂企业盈利能力修复，磷酸铁景气度有望回暖。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 需求端 磷矿石：2024年我国磷矿石需求量11320万吨，该行预计2025、2026年磷矿石需求量11802、12414万 吨，实际新增需求量482、612万吨，其中新兴领域的需求增长，而传统领域的需求下降。1)新 ...