Group 1 - The epoxy propylene sector experienced a decline of 3.41%, ranking among the top losers in the market, with notable declines in stocks such as Hongqiang Co., which hit the daily limit down, and others like Hongbaoli, Yida Co., and Bohai Chemical [1][2] - The sector saw a net outflow of 9.23 billion yuan in principal funds, with 18 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 6 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 30 million yuan. Hongbaoli led the outflow with 5.56 billion yuan, followed by Hangjin Technology, Wanhua Chemical, and Hongqiang Co. [2][3] - The top stocks with net inflows included Satellite Chemical, Zhongchumai, and Shida Shenghua, with inflows of 332.33 million yuan, 2.50 million yuan, and 1.99 million yuan respectively [2][3] Group 2 - The top losers in the epoxy propylene sector included Hongbaoli (-8.60%), Hangjin Technology (-3.77%), and Hongqiang Co. (-9.98%), with significant trading volumes and turnover rates [2][3] - The overall market sentiment reflected a bearish trend, with various sectors such as sodium-ion batteries and transgenic technology also experiencing declines, indicating a broader market pullback [2]

Core Viewpoint - The peroxide industry in China has shown stable growth, driven by increasing demand from downstream sectors such as chemicals, plastics, rubber, and textiles, with the market size expected to reach 14.152 billion RMB in 2024 [1][9]. Industry Definition and Classification - Peroxides are compounds containing peroxide groups (-O-O-), characterized by their ability to form covalent bonds with other atoms or groups, leading to diverse structures and properties [2]. Industry Chain Overview - The peroxide industry chain includes upstream raw material supply, midstream production, and downstream applications. Upstream involves basic chemical raw materials like hydrogen and oxygen, while midstream focuses on the production processes. Downstream applications span various sectors, including chemical reactions, textile bleaching, and environmental treatment [4][5]. Development History - The Chinese peroxide industry has evolved over 70 years, transitioning from reliance on imports to developing a domestic production system. The industry has moved from a growth phase to an innovation stage, emphasizing technological advancements and integration into emerging sectors [6][9]. Current Market Analysis - The global peroxide market is projected to reach 40.757 billion RMB in 2024, with significant growth in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China, which is a major consumer and producer [8][9]. China's peroxide demand is expected to reach 1.15 million tons in 2024, reflecting a 6.8% year-on-year increase [12]. Key Enterprises in the Industry - Major players include: - **LUXI Chemical**: Dominates the industrial-grade hydrogen peroxide market with a focus on low-cost production [16]. - **Strong Functional Chemicals**: Specializes in organic peroxides, leveraging safety control technologies [16]. - **Yake Technology**: Focuses on electronic-grade hydrogen peroxide, achieving a purity of ≥99.999% [18]. - **Aladdin Biochemical**: Serves the research market with high-purity peroxide products [16]. - **Satellite Chemical**: Expands into hydrogen peroxide production using by-products from ethylene projects [16]. Future Development Trends - The industry is moving towards high-end products, driven by increasing performance requirements in sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals [20]. - There is a strong emphasis on green and environmentally friendly production methods, with a focus on reducing pollution and developing biodegradable products [21]. - Strict safety regulations are shaping the industry, necessitating enhanced safety measures and management practices [22].

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas industry index has shown mixed performance, with a recent increase in the short term but a decline year-to-date, indicating potential volatility in the sector [2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Oil and Gas Industry Index has increased by 3.53% over the past month, decreased by 1.60% over the past three months, and has declined by 5.61% year-to-date [2]. - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of listed companies involved in oil and gas exploration, equipment manufacturing, transportation, sales, refining, and primary petrochemical production [2]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten weighted companies in the index are: China National Petroleum (10.4%), China National Offshore Oil (9.84%), Sinopec (9.41%), Guanghui Energy (5.08%), and others [2]. - The index is primarily composed of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (70.84%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (29.16%) [2]. Group 3: Sector Allocation - The index's holdings are allocated as follows: Energy (61.28%), Materials (20.68%), Industrials (15.13%), Financials (1.82%), and Utilities (1.09%) [2]. Group 4: Index Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [3]. - In special circumstances, the index may undergo temporary adjustments, such as removing companies that are delisted or have undergone mergers or acquisitions [3]. Group 5: Related Funds - Public funds tracking the oil and gas industry include: Guotai China Securities Oil and Gas Industry Link A, Guotai China Securities Oil and Gas Industry Link C, and Guotai China Securities Oil and Gas Industry ETF [3].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with prices and spreads still stabilizing, while demand is expected to improve with government policies aimed at economic recovery [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry is experiencing a bottoming phase, with most chemical prices and spreads still in a stabilization process [1] - Domestic capacity is gradually being released, leading to a significant slowdown in supply growth [1] - The report suggests focusing on sectors with relatively certain demand, such as agricultural chemicals and the civil explosives industry benefiting from western development [1] Group 2: Key Recommendations - Emphasis on long-term value of leading companies in the chemical sector, as core assets are expected to see profit and valuation recovery [1] - Recommended leading companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Huafeng Chemical, Longbai Group, Yangnong Chemical, New Hecheng, Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Hengli Petrochemical, and Rongsheng Petrochemical [1] Group 3: Subsector Insights - Agricultural chemicals show rigid demand, with steady growth in grain planting area and recovery in compound fertilizer volume and profit [2] - The civil explosives industry is driven by domestic demand, particularly in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet, with increasing concentration benefiting leading companies [2] Group 4: New Material Opportunities - The domestic replacement of chemical new materials is accelerating due to trade tariffs and anti-monopoly pressures [3] - Key areas include adsorption separation materials, lubricating oil components, OLED materials, and high-end photoresists, with specific companies recommended for investment [3] Group 5: Price Recovery Potential - Certain sectors may see profit improvements as supply growth slows and policy constraints are anticipated, particularly in organic silicon and spandex industries [4] - The petrochemical sector may present strategic opportunities following a potential bottoming of oil prices, with recommendations for strategic layouts in refining and downstream polyester filament industries [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook based on expected economic recovery and demand improvement [1]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with 2024 revenues projected to reach CNY 2,219.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.66%, while net profit is expected to decline by 8.18% to CNY 108.87 billion [6][26]. - The oil and petrochemical sector is anticipated to maintain stable revenues and profits, with 2024 revenues estimated at CNY 7,941.40 billion, a decrease of 2.81%, and net profit expected to grow by 0.58% to CNY 372.14 billion [1][26]. - The report highlights that 23 out of 33 sub-industries in the basic chemical sector experienced revenue growth in 2024, with significant increases in chlor-alkali and textile chemicals [6][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry is experiencing a decline in profitability, with gross and net profit margins at 16.27% and 5.13%, respectively, both down from 2023 [26]. - The report notes that the industry has been in a continuous decline in profitability from 2022 to 2024, but signs of stabilization are emerging [26]. Sub-Industry Performance - In 2024, chlor-alkali and textile chemicals showed the highest profit growth rates at 262.84% and 125.27%, respectively [15][26]. - Conversely, non-metallic materials and other plastic products faced significant profit declines of 79.24% and 67.49% [15][26]. Quarterly Analysis - For Q4 2024, the basic chemical industry reported revenues of CNY 565.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.15%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.90% [6][7]. - Net profit for Q4 2024 was CNY 14.16 billion, down 10.73% year-on-year and 51.03% quarter-on-quarter [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in rapidly developing downstream sectors, particularly in new materials, energy security, and policy-driven demand recovery [1][26]. - Recommended companies include China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and various technology firms in the semiconductor and new energy materials sectors [1][26].

Group 1 - The epoxy propylene concept declined by 0.43%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with major declines seen in Hongqiang Co., Huitong Technology, and Hongbaoli [1] - Among the concept stocks, Bohai Chemical, Zhongchumai, and Yida Co. saw the largest increases, with respective gains of 5.85%, 3.37%, and 3.32% [1] - The main funds in the epoxy propylene concept experienced a net outflow of 1.022 billion yuan, with 15 stocks seeing net outflows, and 7 stocks with outflows exceeding 10 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The stock with the highest net outflow was Hongbaoli, with a net outflow of 801 million yuan, followed by Hongqiang Co., Wanhua Chemical, and Sinochem International [1] - The stocks with the highest net inflow included Bohai Chemical, Satellite Chemical, and China Chemical, with net inflows of 32.42 million yuan, 22.65 million yuan, and 6.02 million yuan respectively [2] - The trading volume and turnover rates varied significantly among the stocks, with Hongbaoli showing a turnover rate of 41.09% and Hongqiang Co. at 45.78% [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential revaluation of phosphate rock value due to ongoing supply-demand tensions, with increasing demand for phosphate fertilizers and lithium iron phosphate batteries [6][4]. - The chemical industry is expected to enter a restocking cycle in 2025, driven by low inventory levels and improving profitability among leading chemical companies [5][27]. - The report emphasizes the expansion of phosphate production capacity by Batian Co., which is set to increase its phosphate rock extraction capacity to 2 million tons per year [4][6]. Summary by Sections Core Target Tracking - The report tracks key companies in the chemical sector, including Batian Co., which is expanding its phosphate production capacity significantly [4][6]. - It also notes the performance of various chemical products, with a focus on price increases for butadiene and polyester filament due to favorable market conditions [10][14]. Market Observation - The chemical sector has shown a relative performance of 6.7% over the past month, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2]. - The report indicates that the chemical industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with several companies poised for growth due to favorable market dynamics [5][27]. Data Tracking - The report provides detailed tracking of price movements for key chemical products, including butadiene, polyester filament, and various fertilizers, indicating a general upward trend in prices [10][12][17]. - It also highlights the current chemical industry sentiment index at 93.10, reflecting a positive outlook for the sector [6][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with low-cost expansion capabilities, such as Wanhua Chemical and various tire manufacturers, as well as those benefiting from rising product prices [5][7]. - It emphasizes the importance of high dividend yield companies in the chemical sector, particularly state-owned enterprises with stable financials [8][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, suggesting investment opportunities in key companies [3][5]. Core Insights - The EIA has continuously revised down its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, now predicting an average of $66 and $59 per barrel respectively. The forecast for US natural gas prices is $4.1 and $4.8 per million British thermal units for the same years [6][7]. - Global oil demand growth is expected to remain stable, with IEA projecting increases of 740,000 and 760,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 2026 respectively. OPEC forecasts a demand increase of 1.3 million and 1.28 million barrels per day for the same years [10][11]. - On the supply side, OPEC is expected to contribute additional production, with EIA forecasting a global oil production increase of 1.38 million and 1.3 million barrels per day for 2025 and 2026 respectively [15][18]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $65.41 per barrel, a 2.35% increase week-on-week. WTI futures rose by 2.41% to $62.49 per barrel [25]. - The US oil rig count decreased to 576, down by 2 from the previous week and down 28 year-on-year [38][41]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin increased to $12.72 per barrel, while the US gasoline crack spread rose to $27.41 per barrel [6][19]. - The report anticipates improved refining profitability as oil prices adjust, with a gradual recovery expected as economic conditions improve [6][19]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have risen, while PTA profitability has declined. The report notes that the overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a potential improvement expected as new capacities come online [6][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong. It also suggests investing in companies with high dividend yields like China National Petroleum and CNOOC [21][22]. - For the downstream polyester sector, companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [21][22].

证券研究报告 基础化工周报：尿素价格回升 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年05月18日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【聚氨酯板块】本周纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业均价为17620/16300/11718元/吨，环比分别+345/+1150/+693元/ 吨，纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业毛利分别为4280/3880/458元/吨，环比分别+98/+855/+607元/吨。 ◼ 【油煤气烯烃板块】①本周乙烷/丙烷/动力煤/石脑油均价分别为1374/4514/531/4145元/吨，环比分别+17/-91/- 9/+130元/吨。②本周聚乙烯均价为7897元/吨，环比+28元/吨，乙烷裂解/CTO/石脑油裂解制聚乙烯理论利润分别 为1157/1897/114元/吨，环比分别+15/+42/-90元/吨。③本周聚丙烯均价为7200元/吨，环比+0元/吨， PD ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the petrochemical industry [9] Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a downturn in revenue and net profit due to pressures from real estate and infrastructure, as well as global trade tensions, but the industry is nearing historical lows in terms of profitability [2][6] - There is a notable divergence in profitability among sub-industries, with downstream processing, coal chemical, and gas chemical sectors showing positive growth, indicating structural investment opportunities [2][6] - Key investment opportunities are identified in high-quality growth, growth potential, and high dividend yield sectors [2][7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance Overview - The petrochemical sector's revenue and net profit are projected to decline in 2024 and Q1 2025, with overall revenue for 2024 estimated at approximately 8,210.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.02% year-on-year, and net profit at about 395.0 billion yuan, down 0.54% [21][22] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be around 200.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.14% decline, with net profit decreasing by 4.43% [21][22] Sub-Industry Analysis - The performance of various sub-sectors in 2024 shows mixed results: - Petrochemical (-0.54%) - Oil and gas services and equipment (-7.61%) - Energy extraction (4.87%) - Oil and gas storage and sales (-35.41%) - Traditional refining (-19.10%) - Private refining (-38.09%) - Coal and gas chemicals (19.21%) - Downstream processing (117.14%) [6][22] - In Q1 2025, the performance continues to vary: - Petrochemical (-4.43%) - Oil and gas services and equipment (18.13%) - Energy extraction (-2.48%) - Oil and gas storage and sales (-2.43%) - Traditional refining (-28.31%) - Private refining (-9.55%) - Coal and gas chemicals (65.79%) - Downstream processing (55.26%) [6][22] Investment Focus - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: 1. Gradual recovery in the industry, favoring quality leading companies with rising volumes and prices [7] 2. Opportunities in high-end materials and technology import substitution, particularly in POE and ethylene technology [7] 3. Stable cash flow and high dividend yields, particularly in central and state-owned enterprises, which may see a revaluation [7][8] Recommended Stocks - Key stocks to focus on include: - High-quality growth: Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Zhongman Petroleum, New Natural Gas, and Guanghui Energy - High-end material import substitution: AkzoNobel and Dingjide - Beneficiaries of coal chemical investments in regions like Xinjiang and Shanxi: Aerospace Engineering - Recovery plays: Huajin Co., Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Hengyi Petrochemical - High dividend stocks: CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec [8]