Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the polyester sector, recommending high-quality companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, while also suggesting attention to major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [3][33][49]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in oil prices in Q2 2025, with Brent crude averaging $66.7 per barrel, down 11.0% quarter-on-quarter and 21.5% year-on-year, impacting upstream oil and gas exploration and production [3][5][18]. - The downstream refining and chemical sector experienced a revenue drop of 10.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with net profits down 26.1% [33][35]. - The report notes a tightening supply-demand balance in the polyester sector, with expectations for improved profitability in the upcoming months as the industry enters a seasonal peak [3][51]. Summary by Sections Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - In Q2 2025, the oil and gas exploration and production sector reported revenues of 1,526.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.2% year-on-year, and net profits of 87.58 billion yuan, down 21.8% [17][19]. - The average gross margin for the sector was 20.1%, reflecting a decline due to falling oil prices [17][19]. Downstream Refining and Chemical Sector - The refining and chemical sector achieved revenues of 1,608.3 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, with net profits also down 26.1% [33][35]. - The average gross margin for this sector was 16.9%, impacted by inventory losses due to declining oil prices and weak downstream demand [33][35]. Price Trends and Margins - The report indicates that the price spread for major petrochemical products showed mixed results, with some margins improving while others contracted [12][34]. - The PTA-PX price spread was reported at 219 yuan per ton, down 21% quarter-on-quarter, indicating pressure on the PTA segment [12][34]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to expected improvements in demand and profitability [3][51]. - It also recommends monitoring major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which may benefit from cost improvements and competitive advantages [3][49].

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][12][22] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [2][12][22] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [2][12][22] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume Metrics**: On September 22, the closing price of the main contract was 11,505, up 60 from the previous day and down 200 from the same period last month; the open interest was 70,306, down 4,953 from the previous day and up 51,521 from the same period last month; the trading volume was 95,866, up 1,305 from the previous day and up 59,284 from the same period last month; the warrant quantity was 9,190, down 1,040 from the previous day and down 4,480 from the same period last month; the virtual - to - real ratio was 38.25 [3][13][23]. - **Basis and Spread Metrics**: The butadiene basis was 45, down 110 from the previous day and up 50 from the same period last month; the 8 - 9 month spread was 125, down 60 from the previous day and down 30 from the same period last month; the 9 - 10 month spread was 90, down 40 from the previous day and up 120 from the same period last month [3][13][23]. - **Price and Profit Metrics**: The Shandong market price was 11,550, down 50 from the previous day and down 150 from the same period last month; the spot processing profit was - 238; the on - screen processing profit was - 283, up 162 from the previous day and down 200 from the same period last month; the export profit was 111, up 44 from the previous day and up 124 from the same period last month [3][13][23]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price and Profit Metrics**: The CFR China price was 1,060, down 10 from the previous day and down 30 from the same period last month; the carbon tetrachloride extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 196, up 90 from the previous day and up 110 from the same period last month; the import profit was 527, up 80 from the previous day and up 197 from the same period last month; the export profit was - 896, unchanged from the previous day and up 110 from the same period last month [3][13][23]. Downstream Products - **Profit Metrics**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 1,063, up 100 from the previous day and down 50 from the same period last month; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 882, up 70 from the previous day and up 130 from the same period last month; the ABS production profit was N/A [3][13][23]. Variety Spreads - **Spread Metrics**: The Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 3,300, up 170 from the previous day and down 150 from the same period last month; the 3L - butadiene - styrene spread was 3,100, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged from the same period last month; the butadiene standard - non - standard spread was 150, down 50 from the previous day and down 50 from the same period last month; the butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged from the same period last month; the RU - BR spread was - 54,691, up 5,033 from the previous day; the NR - BR spread was - 57,881, down 51,806 from the same period last month [3][13][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry [2] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, crude oil prices experienced a decline, leading to a decrease in upstream oil and gas extraction and midstream refining profitability, while downstream polyester profitability showed signs of recovery [4][5] - The overall revenue for the oil and gas extraction and oilfield services sector in Q2 2025 was 1,526.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.1% [19][21] - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand situation in the downstream polyester sector, with expectations for improved market conditions [4] Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Prices - Brent crude oil average prices for April, May, and June 2025 were 66.5, 64.0, and 69.8 USD/barrel, respectively, with a Q2 average of 66.7 USD/barrel, reflecting an 11.0% decrease quarter-on-quarter and an 8.3% decrease year-on-year [4][20] - The report notes that gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted three times upwards and two times downwards, with total reductions of 155 CNY/ton and 150 CNY/ton, respectively [20] Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas extraction and oilfield services sector reported a total revenue of 1,526.15 billion in Q2 2025, with a net profit of 87.58 billion, marking a year-on-year decline of 21.8% [19][21] - The gross margin for the sector was 20.1%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year and 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to falling crude oil prices [19][21] Downstream Refining and Chemical Sector - The refining and chemical industry achieved a total revenue of 1,608.3 billion in Q2 2025, with a net profit of 52 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.1% [35][37] - The gross margin for the refining sector was 16.9%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, attributed to inventory losses from falling oil prices and weak downstream demand [35][37] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [4] - It also suggests that the overall oil price is expected to maintain a mid-to-high level with a "U" shaped trend, recommending companies with high dividend yields like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [2] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data**: On September 22, the closing price of the main contract was 11,505, up 60 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week; the open interest was 70,306, down 4,953 from the previous day and up 51,521 week - on - week; the trading volume was 95,866, up 1,305 from the previous day and up 59,284 week - on - week; the warrant quantity was 9,190, down 1,040 from the previous day and down 4,480 week - on - week; the virtual - to - real ratio was 38.25; the butadiene rubber basis was 45, down 110 from the previous day and up 50 week - on - week; the butadiene rubber basis (two major oil companies) was 195, down 60 from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [3]. - **Spot Data**: The Shandong market price was 11,550, down 50 from the previous day and down 150 week - on - week; the Transfar market price was 11,450, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,525, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [3]. - **Profit Data**: The spot processing profit was - 238, up 52 from the previous day and down 150 week - on - week; the futures processing profit was - 283, up 162 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week; the import profit was - 83,031, down 54 from the previous day and up 1,520 week - on - week; the export profit was 155, up 44 from the previous day and up 124 week - on - week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price Data**: The Shandong market price was 9,400, down 100 from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,200, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 week - on - week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,150, down 100 from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week; CFR China was 1,060, down 10 from the previous day and down 30 week - on - week [3]. - **Profit Data**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 196, up 90 from the previous day and up 110 week - on - week; the import profit was 527, up 80 from the previous day and up 197 week - on - week; the export profit was - 896, unchanged from the previous day and up 110 week - on - week [3]. Downstream Products - The butadiene rubber production profit was - 283, up 162 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week; the styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 1,063, up 100 from the previous day and down 50 week - on - week; the ABS production profit was N/A; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 955, up 70 from the previous day and up 130 week - on - week [3]. Price Spreads - **Inter - variety Spreads**: RU - BR was - 54,691, up 5,033 from the previous day and down 51,901 week - on - week; NR - BR was - 57,881, up 5,078 from the previous day and down 51,806 week - on - week; Thai mixed - butadiene rubber was 3,300, up 170 from the previous day and down 150 week - on - week; 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,100, up 50 from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [3]. - **Intra - variety Spreads**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 150, down 50 from the previous day and down 50 week - on - week; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the weekly price and profit data of various chemical products, including polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, and coal - chemical sectors, along with the performance of related listed companies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Foundation Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance** - **Stock Price Fluctuations**: From September 19, 2025, the Foundation Chemical Index dropped by 1.3% in the past week, rose by 2.7% in the past month, 17.4% in the past three months, 50.5% in the past year, and 23.4% since the beginning of 2025. Among related companies, Wanhua Chemical fell 3.7% in the past week, Baofeng Energy dropped 3.8%, Satellite Chemical declined 4.1%, Huaxin Chemical rose 0.2%, and New Hope Liuhe fell 3.7% [8]. - **Profit Tracking**: As of September 19, 2025, the total market value of Wanhua Chemical was 204.5 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 13 billion yuan in 2024, expected to be 13.5 billion yuan in 2025, 16.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 19 billion yuan in 2027. Similar data is provided for other companies [8]. - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average weekly prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI were 17,600 yuan/ton, 15,071 yuan/ton, and 13,694 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 179 yuan/ton, + 143 yuan/ton, and + 109 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 4,312 yuan/ton, 2,784 yuan/ton, and 2,558 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 221 yuan/ton, + 101 yuan/ton, and - 157 yuan/ton [2][8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain** - **Raw Material Prices**: The average weekly prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha were 1,348 yuan/ton, 4,273 yuan/ton, 503 yuan/ton, and 4,293 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 46 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, 8 yuan/ton, and 35 yuan/ton [2]. - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average price of polyethylene was 7,704 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton week - on - week. The theoretical profits of ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1,093 yuan/ton, 1,844 yuan/ton, and - 143 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 29 yuan/ton, 22 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 6,800 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were - 335 yuan/ton, 1,442 yuan/ton, and - 369 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 5 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average weekly prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid were 2,108 yuan/ton, 1,683 yuan/ton, 3,875 yuan/ton, and 2,344 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 21 yuan/ton, - 24 yuan/ton, - 107 yuan/ton, and + 56 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 152 yuan/ton, - 4 yuan/ton, - 316 yuan/ton, and 80 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 27 yuan/ton, - 16 yuan/ton, - 122 yuan/ton, and + 56 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2. Foundation Chemical Weekly Report - **2.1 Foundation Chemical Index Trend** No specific content about the index trend is provided, only the topic is mentioned [12]. - **2.2 Polyurethane Sector** The report shows the price trends of pure benzene, pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI, as well as the price and profit data of polymer MDI, TDI, and pure MDI [17][18]. - **2.3 Oil - Gas - Olefin Sector** It presents the price trends of MB ethane, NYMEX natural gas, East China propane, Brent crude oil, domestic steam coal, and naphtha, along with the profitability of different production processes such as ethane cracking to produce polyethylene, PDH to produce polypropylene, etc. [25][26]. - **2.4 Coal - Chemical Sector** The report shows the price trends and profitability of domestic coking coal, coke, synthetic ammonia, methanol, urea, DMF, acetic acid, and other products [42][46].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **olefin industry**, specifically discussing **ethylene** and **propylene** production and market dynamics, with insights from **Baofeng Energy** and **Satellite Chemical** [1][2][3]. Ethylene Production Insights - Global ethylene production capacity surpassed **200 million tons** in **2021**, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of **3.3%**. The main feedstock remains mixed aromatics and naphtha cracking, accounting for **65%** of production [1][2]. - China's ethylene capacity is rapidly expanding, projected to reach **54.49 million tons** by **2024**, with a CAGR of **15%** and an estimated output of **35 million tons** [1][2]. - The production methods in China primarily involve naphtha cracking and coal-to-olefins, with ethane cracking increasingly reliant on overseas supply [1][2]. - By **2025**, an additional **14.7 million tons** of global ethylene capacity is expected, with China's consumption projected to grow by **9%** to over **37 million tons** in **2024** [1][5]. Propylene Production Insights - China's total propylene capacity is expected to reach **61.69 million tons** by **2024**, reflecting a **14%** year-on-year increase, with an operating rate of approximately **70%** [1][11]. - The production methods for propylene include catalytic cracking and steam cracking, with the latter's share increasing to **29%** by **2023** [1][12]. Competitive Advantages and Market Dynamics - Satellite Chemical has a cost advantage in ethane cracking and is extending its product line to high-end products like polyethylene elastomers, enhancing value [3][16]. - Baofeng Energy is currently undervalued with a strong dividend potential, driven by coal-to-olefins projects in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, expected to catalyze growth post-2027 [3][17][18]. Future Market Expectations - The domestic ethylene market is expected to maintain strong demand, with a projected consumption of nearly **60 million tons** in **2023**, indicating significant growth potential [7]. - The anticipated increase in ethylene and propylene production capacity is expected to stabilize market prices despite the influx of new capacity [22][23]. Investment Opportunities - Baofeng Energy's valuation is considered low, with a projected PE ratio below **10** and a potential dividend yield of **7.8%** if cash flow supports a **50%** payout ratio [17][19]. - The company has significant growth potential through new projects, with the Xinjiang project alone expected to generate an additional **12 billion yuan** in profit [20][21]. Conclusion - The olefin industry, particularly ethylene and propylene, is poised for growth, with significant developments in production capacity and market dynamics. Companies like Baofeng Energy and Satellite Chemical are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, making them attractive investment opportunities [23].

Group 1 - The company has established a vision to become a world-class chemical new materials technology company [2] - The company is committed to promoting the strategy of extending, supplementing, and strengthening the industrial chain [2] - The company aims to accelerate the development towards high-end products [2]

Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical aims to become a world-class chemical new materials technology company, focusing on enhancing its industrial chain competitiveness and avoiding "involution" competition [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company is centered around creating market-competitive products, emphasizing "management leadership" and "technology leadership" [1] - It leverages its industrial chain advantages, controls core catalyst technologies, and masters proprietary production processes to develop differentiated products tailored to customer needs [1] Group 2: Product Development - In 2023, the company launched new chemical products such as neopentyl glycol and a series of new polymer product models along with domestically produced alternative additives [1] - The company is committed to providing comprehensive solutions centered around customer needs [1]

Market Overview - On September 15, the chemical raw materials sector declined by 0.16% compared to the previous trading day, with Zhenhua Co., Ltd. leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3860.5, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13005.77, up 0.63% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the chemical raw materials sector included: - Longbai Group (002601) with a closing price of 19.62, up 5.09% and a trading volume of 667,300 shares, totaling 1.314 billion yuan [1] - ST Yatai (000691) with a closing price of 7.81, up 4.97% and a trading volume of 101,400 shares, totaling 79.1972 million yuan [1] - Jinhai Titanium Industry (000545) with a closing price of 3.69, up 4.53% and a trading volume of 1,184,600 shares, totaling 435 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Zhenhua Co., Ltd. (603067) with a closing price of 17.90, down 4.33% and a trading volume of 180,800 shares, totaling 329 million yuan [2] - Sanyou Chemical (600409) with a closing price of 5.78, down 3.02% and a trading volume of 368,900 shares, totaling 216 million yuan [2] - Jinniu Chemical (600722) with a closing price of 7.09, down 2.88% and a trading volume of 319,900 shares, totaling 228 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The chemical raw materials sector experienced a net outflow of 398 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 239 million yuan [2][3] - Notable capital flows included: - Huayi Group (600623) with a net inflow of 26.8479 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Tianyuan Co., Ltd. (002386) with a net inflow of 25.0141 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Xue Tian Salt Industry (600929) with a net inflow of 21.3913 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for AI data centers is increasing, driven by high heat dissipation and high energy consumption, leading to a growing need for liquid cooling solutions [2][3]. Group 1: AI Data Center Capacity and Growth - According to Semianalysis, the global AI computing center installed capacity is expected to reach 7 GW in 2024, with further growth anticipated by 2028 [1][2]. Group 2: Liquid Cooling Solutions - The two main types of liquid cooling solutions for data centers are cold plate cooling and immersion cooling [3][4]. - Cold plate cooling can be further divided into single-phase and phase-change types, with single-phase primarily using deionized water and phase-change using fluorinated fluids [3]. - Immersion cooling liquids are categorized into synthetic oils and fluorinated liquids, with synthetic oils including hydrocarbon and silicone oils, and fluorinated liquids being ideal due to their chemical stability and low dielectric constant [4]. Group 3: Recommended Companies - For cold plate cooling, recommended companies include Haohua Technology (600378.SH), Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH), and Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379.SH) [3]. - For synthetic oils, Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) is highlighted, while for silicone oil, the recommended company is Huamao Technology (603181.SH) [4]. - For fluorinated liquids, recommended companies include Sinoma Science & Technology (300037.SZ), Juhua Co., Ltd., Hualu Group (600623.SH), and Yonghe Co., Ltd. (605020.SH) [4].