格隆汇12月31日丨卫星化学(002648.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司致力于成为世界一流的化学新材料科技 公司，公司目前的产品暂无直接用于商业航天，只为下游客户提供原材料。公司将密切关注产业发展趋 势。 ...

Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 7th this week (2025/12/22-2025/12/26) with a fluctuation of 4.23%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.35 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 0.34 percentage points [1] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with a focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [1] Synthetic Biology - The arrival of a pivotal moment in synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by the adjustment of energy structures, which may disrupt fossil-based materials and favor low-energy products [1] - Traditional chemical companies are expected to compete based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs, with successful firms leveraging green energy alternatives and integrated advantages to reduce costs [1] - The demand for bio-based materials is projected to surge, leading to potential profitability and valuation increases for leading companies in the synthetic biology sector, such as Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [1] Refrigerants - The implementation of quota policies is expected to usher in a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants, with supply entering a "quota + continuous reduction" phase starting in 2024 [2] - The demand for refrigerants is anticipated to grow steadily due to the development of heat pumps, cold chain markets, and the expansion of the air conditioning market in Southeast Asia [2] - Companies with a high quota share, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co., are expected to benefit significantly from this trend [2] Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical to the electronics industry and represent a core component of domestic industrial chain localization [2] - The domestic market faces a contradiction between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity, presenting significant domestic substitution opportunities [2] - Key players like Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand driven by integrated circuits, panels, and photovoltaics [2] Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry is becoming increasingly significant, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter low-carbon alkanes like ethane and propane [3] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are characterized by low carbon emissions, low energy consumption, and low water usage, aligning with global carbon neutrality goals [3] - Companies in the light hydrocarbon sector, such as Satellite Chemical, are expected to see a revaluation of their value as this trend continues [3] COC Polymers - The industrialization process of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs and the shift of downstream industries to domestic sources [4] - COC/COP materials are increasingly used in various applications, including mobile camera lenses and medical packaging, with a focus on high-end applications [4] - Companies like Acolyte are recommended for their potential in the COC polymer production segment [4] Potash Fertilizers - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as the industry enters a destocking cycle, with supply constraints due to Canpotex withdrawing new quotes and Nutrien announcing production cuts [5] - The demand for potash fertilizers is likely to increase as farmers respond to rising grain prices, leading to a potential reversal in potash prices [5] - Leading companies in the potash sector, such as Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, and Zangge Mining, are recommended for investment [5] MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with demand steadily improving due to the expansion of polyurethane applications [6] - The global MDI production capacity is concentrated among five major chemical giants, which control approximately 90.85% of the market [6] - Companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to benefit from the favorable supply dynamics and demand recovery in the MDI sector [6] Chemical Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included NYMEX natural gas (9.59%), PTA (8.95%), and butadiene (6.83%) [6] - The top five price decreases included pure MDI (-4.23%) and acrylic fiber (-3.45%) [6] - A total of 170 chemical companies reported production capacity impacts this week, with 6 new repairs and 10 restarts [6]

Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical experienced a decline of 0.58% in stock price on December 29, with a trading volume of 497 million yuan, indicating a significant level of trading activity and investor interest [1]. Financing Summary - On December 29, Satellite Chemical had a financing buy amount of 50.96 million yuan and a financing repayment of 66.97 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 16.01 million yuan. The total financing and securities balance reached 1.606 billion yuan [1]. - The current financing balance of 1.602 billion yuan accounts for 2.75% of the circulating market value, which is above the 70th percentile of the past year, indicating a high level of financing activity [1]. - In terms of securities lending, 9,200 shares were repaid and 3,300 shares were sold on December 29, with a selling amount of 57,100 yuan. The remaining securities lending volume was 235,400 shares, with a balance of 4.0701 million yuan, also above the 50th percentile of the past year [1]. Business Performance - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Satellite Chemical was 89,400, a decrease of 4.05% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person increased by 4.22% to 37,663 shares [2]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Satellite Chemical achieved an operating income of 34.771 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.73%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.755 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.69% [2]. Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Satellite Chemical has distributed a total of 5.733 billion yuan in dividends, with 3.026 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders of Satellite Chemical included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the third-largest shareholder, holding 234 million shares, an increase of 83.8077 million shares from the previous period. Other notable shareholders included Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and Penghua CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme ETF, with varying changes in their holdings [3].

【大宗商品公式定价原理】生意社基准价是基于价格大数据与生意社价格模型产生的交易指导价，又称 生意社价格。可用于确定以下两种需求的交易结算价： 2025年12月29日卫星化学股份有限公司乙二醇出厂对外报价3670元/吨，较上一交易日报价上调20元/ 吨，实单商谈为主。 PriceSeek评析 乙二醇，多空评分：1 卫星化学乙二醇出厂报价上调20元/吨至3670元/吨，表明现货市场供应偏紧或需求改善，利好现货价 格。结合乙二醇期货主力合约2605(2025-12-26收盘价3846元/吨，结算价3820元/吨，成交量363008手)的 近期表现，报价上调可能提振期货市场看涨情绪，预计期货价格将跟随现货呈现温和上涨趋势。 生意社12月29日讯 定价公式：结算价=生意社基准价×K＋C K：调整系数，包括账期成本等因素。 卫星化学乙二醇出厂报价上调20元/吨至3670元/吨，表明现货市场供应偏紧或需求改善，利好现货价 格。结合乙二醇期货主力合约2605(2025-12-26收盘价3846元/吨，结算价3820元/吨，成交量363008手)的 近期表现，报价上调可能提振期货市场看涨情绪，预计期货价格将跟随现货呈现温和上涨 ...

来源：中国能源网 中银证券近日发布化工行业周报：本周（12.22-12.28）国际油价持平，WTI原油期货价格收于56.74美 元/桶，收盘价周涨幅0.14%布伦特原油期货价格收于60.64美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅0.28%。宏观方面，根 据新华网消息，乌克兰总统泽连斯基称当地时间22日深夜至23日凌晨乌遭俄大规模袭击，多地能源设施 受损。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资建议 截至12月27日，SW基础化工市盈率（TTM剔除负值）为25.60倍，处在历史（2002年至今）76.58%分位 数；市净率为2.33倍，处在历史61.10%分位数。SW石油石化市盈率（TTM剔除负值）为13.17倍，处在 历史（2002年至今）37.56%分位数；市净率为1.28倍，处在历史36.98%分位数。今年以来，行业受关税 相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，十二月份建议关注：1、低估值行业龙头公司；2、"反 内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司与涨价背景下的部分新能 源材料公司。中长期推荐投资主线：1、政策加持下需求有望复苏，供给端持续优化，优秀龙头企业业 绩估值有望双提升。2、下游行业快速 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "C" investment rating for the petrochemical industry, indicating a cautious outlook for investment opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The PX supply-demand balance is expected to tighten in the first half of 2026, leading to a recovery in market conditions. The operating rate is projected to improve from 78% in 2023 to over 85% [3][11]. - The PTA industry has reached the end of its capital expenditure cycle, with no new capacity expected until mid-2027. The current industry is entering a phase of coordinated production cuts, which may reduce PX demand [11][12]. - The downstream polyester sector is gradually tightening, with expectations for improved market conditions. Recommended companies include Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [16]. Summary by Sections PX Supply and Demand - PX supply-demand is expected to be tight in the first half of 2026, with a significant recovery in market conditions anticipated. The operating rate is projected to rise from 78% in 2023 to over 85% [3][11]. - There are no large-scale new capacity plans in the short term, and maintenance seasons for domestic refineries may create temporary supply gaps [3]. PTA Industry Overview - The PTA industry's capacity increased from 46.08 million tons in 2018 to 86.02 million tons in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 11%. The current capacity accounts for about 75% of global PTA capacity [11]. - The PTA industry is expected to enter a phase of coordinated production cuts, which may weaken PX demand [11][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [16]. - The upstream exploration and development sector remains highly prosperous, with expectations for continued high capital expenditure in offshore services, recommending companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting a recovery in PX supply-demand dynamics and PTA profitability restoration [3][5]. Core Insights - The PX market is expected to see a tightening supply-demand balance, with a recovery in operating rates from 78% in 2023 to over 85% as downstream PTA production ramps up in 2024-2025. This is anticipated to lead to a significant improvement in market conditions [5][6]. - PTA production capacity in China is projected to increase from 46.08 million tons in 2018 to 86.02 million tons by 2024, accounting for 75% of global capacity. The report indicates that there will be no new capacity additions post-2026, leading to a collaborative reduction phase in the industry [13][19]. - The upstream oil sector is experiencing rising oil prices, with Brent crude futures closing at $60.64 per barrel, reflecting a 0.28% increase week-on-week. This is expected to support the profitability of refining companies [5][26]. - The polyester sector is showing mixed performance, with PTA profitability increasing while polyester filament profits are declining. The report emphasizes the need to monitor demand changes closely [19]. Summary by Sections PX Market - PX supply-demand is tightening, with a forecasted increase in operating rates to over 85% due to no new capacity additions and seasonal maintenance in early 2026 [5][6]. - The report notes that the PX price has risen to $878.87 per ton, a week-on-week increase of 5.61% [19]. PTA Market - PTA production capacity is expected to reach 71.14 million tons in 2024, a 13% year-on-year increase. The report anticipates a collaborative reduction phase starting in 2026 due to no new capacity additions [13][19]. - PTA prices have shifted from a downward trend to an upward trend, with current prices in East China averaging 4,936 RMB per ton, reflecting a 6.94% increase week-on-week [19]. Upstream Oil Sector - Brent crude oil prices have increased, with a weekly average price of $61.91 per barrel, indicating a positive trend for upstream oil companies [5][26]. - The report highlights a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., with 545 rigs reported, a decrease of 44 year-on-year, suggesting a potential impact on future oil supply [41]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in profitability [19].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the petrochemical sector, with various indices showing significant weekly gains, particularly the polyester index which increased by 8.52% [9]. Core Insights - Oil prices experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, with WTI closing at $56.74 and Brent at $63.73 as of December 26, reflecting a week-on-week increase of $0.59 and $2.30 respectively [15][17]. - The report highlights that the U.S. is focusing on economic measures against Venezuela's oil exports, while tensions in the Gulf region, particularly with Saudi airstrikes in Yemen, contribute to market volatility [17]. - The report notes that the overall oil market remains influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of a potential peace agreement impacting market sentiment [17]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The petrochemical sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.18% [9]. - The oil and gas resource index rose by 3.35%, while the refining and chemical index saw a 4.16% increase [9]. Petrochemical Subsector Overview - **Oil**: The report indicates a mixed outlook with oil prices fluctuating due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. U.S. crude oil production is reported at 13.84 million barrels per day, with a decrease in net imports [15]. - **Refining**: The average refining margin for major refineries was reported at 663.63 yuan/ton, showing an increase of 49.75 yuan/ton from the previous period [15]. - **Polyester**: The report notes that polyester production is facing challenges with profitability, as the average profit for polyester POY150D was reported at -135.19 yuan/ton [15]. - **Olefins**: Ethylene prices remained stable at 6172 yuan/ton, while propylene prices decreased by 240 yuan/ton to 5715 yuan/ton [15]. Price Tracking - The report provides detailed tracking of various petrochemical product prices, indicating significant fluctuations in margins and costs across different segments [12][14].

生意社12月25日讯 定价公式：结算价=生意社基准价×K＋C K：调整系数，包括账期成本等因素。 C：升贴水，包括物流成本、品牌价差、区域价差等因素。 生意社12月25日讯 2025年12月25日卫星化学股份有限公司乙二醇出厂对外报价3630元/吨，较上一交易日报价上调30元/ 吨，实单商谈为主。 2025年12月25日卫星化学股份有限公司乙二醇出厂对外报价3630元/吨，较上一交易日报价上调30元/ 吨，实单商谈为主。 PriceSeek评析 乙二醇，多空评分：1 乙二醇出厂报价上调30元/吨至3630元/吨，表明供应端价格走强，利好现货市场，可能反映需求改善或 成本支撑。结合乙二醇期货最新数据(如主力合约2605结算价3734元/吨，较前日上涨59元)，此举措可能 强化市场看涨预期，推动期货价格延续上涨趋势。整体对行情构成一般利好。 【大宗商品公式定价原理】生意社基准价是基于价格大数据与生意社价格模型产生的交易指导价，又称 生意社价格。可用于确定以下两种需求的交易结算价： 1、指定日期的结算价 2、指定周期的平均结算价 1、指定日期的结算价 2、指定周期的平均结算价 定价公式：结算价=生意社基准价×K＋C ...

生意社12月23日讯 生意社12月23日讯 2025年12月23日卫星化学股份有限公司乙二醇出厂对外报价3450元/吨，较上一交易日报价下调110元/ 吨，实单商谈为主。 PriceSeek评析 乙二醇，多空评分：-2 卫星化学乙二醇出厂报价下调110元/吨至3450元/吨，实单商谈为主，表明现货市场供应过剩或需求疲 软，对现货价格构成重大利空压力，可能导致价格进一步下跌。结合乙二醇期货数据(2025-12-22)，主 力合约2605收盘3735元/吨，下跌22元，成交量207007手，持仓量增加9668手，显示市场看空情绪浓 厚；现货价格低于期货，可能拖累期货价格下行，强化利空趋势。 【大宗商品公式定价原理】生意社基准价是基于价格大数据与生意社价格模型产生的交易指导价，又称 生意社价格。可用于确定以下两种需求的交易结算价： 1、指定日期的结算价 2、指定周期的平均结算价 定价公式：结算价=生意社基准价×K＋C K：调整系数，包括账期成本等因素。 C：升贴水，包括物流成本、品牌价差、区域价差等因素。 2025年12月23日卫星化学股份有限公司乙二醇出厂对外报价3450元/吨，较上一交易日报价下调110元/ 吨 ...