Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant afternoon rally on January 20, with the Chemical ETF (516020) reaching an intraday high of 1.7% before closing up 0.85% [1] - Key stocks in the sector included Sanhe Tree, which surged over 9%, and Luxi Chemical, which rose over 8%, along with several others like Satellite Chemical and Hengli Petrochemical, which increased by more than 4% [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with four other departments, issued guidelines on January 19 to promote the construction of zero-carbon factories, aiming to extend this initiative to the petrochemical and chemical industries [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities noted that by 2025, a turning point in policy and capital expenditure is expected, with the "anti-involution" concept providing a positive outlook for industry profitability and healthier long-term development [3] - The restructuring of supply and demand dynamics, along with the upgrading of industry attributes, is prompting a reevaluation of traditional chemical companies' values [3] - Huaxin Securities indicated that the overall performance of the chemical industry remains weak, with mixed results across sub-sectors, influenced by past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants have outperformed expectations [3] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co., allowing investors to capitalize on strong investment opportunities [4] - The remaining 50% of the ETF's holdings are diversified across leading stocks in sub-sectors like phosphate fertilizers, fluorine chemicals, and nitrogen fertilizers, providing comprehensive exposure to the chemical sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical ETF Tianhong (159133) is experiencing significant capital inflow and positive market performance, driven by macroeconomic factors and industry dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 20, 2026, the chemical ETF Tianhong (159133) recorded a transaction volume of 6.5777 million yuan, with the underlying index rising by 0.46% [1]. - The ETF has seen a net subscription of 20 million shares within the first half hour of trading, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - The ETF's latest scale and share count have reached new highs since its inception, with a total net inflow of 312 million yuan over the past 14 days [2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The Tianhong ETF tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, focusing on various sub-sectors within the Chinese chemical industry, including chemical raw materials and manufacturing [2]. - The chemical sector is experiencing a rebound, supported by macroeconomic factors such as an unexpected rise in PMI and a stronger yuan, which reduces import costs [2]. - The industry is witnessing a reduction in capital expenditure, with a shift towards "de-involution" strategies that help mitigate risks of oversupply [2][3]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Recent data shows that 44.1% of 170 tracked chemical products have seen price increases, with notable rises in lithium carbonate, ABS, and epoxy propane [3]. - The dual forces of supply-side contraction and demand-side growth, driven by national policies and external economic conditions, are expected to support a cyclical recovery in the chemical industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing significant negative impacts on its non-operating income due to the fair value changes of financial assets and liabilities, which are exacerbated by the rising silver prices [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's non-operating income related to financial assets and liabilities has been consistently negative, with increasing losses each quarter [1] - The surge in silver prices is expected to further worsen the non-operating losses in the fourth quarter [1] Group 2: Operational Insights - The company has been questioned about the typical lease duration for silver, indicating a focus on operational practices related to silver leasing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current trends in the chemical industry, focusing on price movements, supply and demand dynamics, and investment opportunities in undervalued leading companies amid a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and changing market conditions [1][4][8]. Industry Dynamics - In the week of January 12-18, 49 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 20 experienced declines, and 31 remained stable. The average monthly price of 49% of products rose compared to the previous month [3]. - The average price of WTI crude oil futures increased by 0.54% to $59.44 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 0.66% to $63.76 per barrel during the same week [4]. - As of January 9, U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.753 million barrels per day, a decrease of 58,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 272,000 barrels year-on-year. Total U.S. oil demand was 21.009 million barrels per day, up by 178,200 barrels from the previous week [4]. Price Movements - The price of butadiene rose by 4.04% to 9,663 yuan per ton as of January 18, with a month-on-month increase of 25.98% but a year-on-year decrease of 20.8%. The production of butadiene was 109,300 tons, down 2.85% from the previous week [5]. - Epoxy propane prices increased by 8.84% to 8,620 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year rise of 9.88%. The market operating rate was 65.38%, reflecting a 1.51% increase from the previous week [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - As of January 18, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the SW basic chemical sector is 14.68, at the 59.64% historical percentile, while the price-to-book ratio is 1.54, at the 40.20% historical percentile. The SW oil and petrochemical sector has a TTM P/E ratio of 13.44, at the 39.81% historical percentile [8]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on undervalued leading companies, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the growing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials amid rising prices [2][8]. - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, with a focus on sectors like semiconductor materials, OLED materials, and new energy materials [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the average prices of pure MDI, polymerized MDI, and TDI in the polyurethane industry were 17,843 yuan/ton, 14,014 yuan/ton, and 14,188 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 200 yuan/ton, 157 yuan/ton, and 290 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits also declined [2]. - In the oil - gas - olefin sector, prices of raw materials such as ethane, propane, etc. had different changes this week. The average prices of polyethylene and polypropylene increased, and the theoretical profits of different production routes also changed accordingly [2]. - In the coal - chemical industry, the average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid had slight fluctuations, and their gross profits also changed slightly [2]. - In the animal nutrition products sector, the average prices of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine had minor changes this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking** - The Basic Chemical Index had a weekly increase of 0.9%, a monthly increase of 12.3%, a quarterly increase of 12.9%, an annual increase of 44.7%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.0% as of 2026/1/16. Different chemical companies had different performance in terms of stock price changes and earnings. For example, Wanhua Chemical's stock price decreased by 0.8% this week, while Baofeng Energy's increased by 5.2% [8]. - The report also provided data on the total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of relevant companies from 2024A to 2027E [8]. - **Industry Chain Data** - **Polyurethane Industry Chain**: The average prices and gross profits of pure MDI, polymerized MDI, and TDI decreased this week. Their respective seven - year quantiles were 51%, 45%, and 65% for prices, and 71%, 49%, and 71% for gross profits [8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain**: - **Raw Material Prices**: The average prices of ethane, propane, NYMEX natural gas, Brent crude oil, and naphtha had different changes. Their ten - year quantiles also varied [8]. - **Profit Comparison of Different Routes**: The single - ton profits of different production routes for polyethylene and polypropylene had different changes compared to the previous week, the beginning of the year, and the same period last year [8]. - **C2 and C3 Plates**: The average prices and price differences between products and raw materials in the C2 and C3 plates had different changes, with different ten - year quantiles. For example, the price of ethylene decreased by 90 yuan/ton, and the price difference between HDPE and ethylene increased by 353 yuan/ton [10]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain**: - **Coal - Coke Products**: The average prices of coking coal and coke decreased, and the gross profit of coke was - 47 yuan/ton, with a 3 - yuan decrease [10]. - **Traditional Coal - Chemical Products**: The average prices and gross profits of synthetic ammonia, methanol, urea, DMF, and acetic acid had different changes, with different seven - year quantiles [10]. - **New Materials**: The average prices and gross profits of DMC, oxalic acid, octanol, adipic acid, caprolactam, PA6, and PA66 had different changes, with different seven - year quantiles [10]. - **Animal Nutrition Products Industry Chain**: The average prices of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine changed slightly, with different ten - year quantiles [10]. 2. Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trends**: The report did not provide specific content in the text, only the title. - **2.2 Polyurethane Sector**: The report presented the price trends of pure MDI, polymerized MDI, and TDI in China, as well as their price - spread situations [16][18][20]. - **2.3 Oil - Gas - Olefin Sector**: It showed the price trends of raw materials such as MB ethane, NYMEX natural gas, East China propane, Brent crude oil, domestic steam coal, and naphtha, and the profit situations of different production routes for polyethylene and polypropylene [24][27][29]. - **2.4 Coal - Chemical Sector**: The report presented the price trends and gross profit situations of coal - coke products, traditional coal - chemical products, and new materials in the coal - chemical industry [40][46][51]. - **2.5 Animal Nutrition Products Sector**: It showed the price trends of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine [55][59][61].

Group 1 - The company aims to become a world-class chemical new materials technology company [2] - The POE and other new materials projects are progressing steadily and are in line with the company's expectations [2] - For specific details, the company refers to its regular announcements [2]

Group 1 - The chemical raw materials sector increased by 2.58% on January 14, with Junzheng Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4126.09, down 0.31%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14248.6, up 0.56% [1] - Junzheng Group's stock price rose by 10.10% to 5.67, with a trading volume of 5.943 million shares [1] Group 2 - The main funds in the chemical raw materials sector saw a net inflow of 750 million yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 576 million yuan [2] - The trading data indicates that Junzheng Group had a net inflow of 825 million yuan from main funds, representing 24.89% of its trading volume [3] - Red Star Development also attracted significant main fund inflow of 93.98 million yuan, accounting for 6.96% of its trading volume [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the chemical industry, specifically recommending leading companies in the light hydrocarbon sector, such as Satellite Chemical [4]. Core Insights - Ethane prices have continued to decline, reaching 1277 RMB/ton as of January 9, with a week-on-week decrease of 3.10% [4]. - Natural gas prices have significantly dropped by 29.02% week-on-week, while ethylene and liquid chlorine prices remained stable [4]. - The report anticipates that despite fluctuations, ethane prices will continue to decline due to a loose supply-demand balance, with expectations for recovery in downstream demand this year [4]. - The report highlights the historical price percentiles for key downstream products, indicating they are currently in a mid-low percentile range [4]. Price Trends of Major Products and Raw Materials - As of January 9, the latest prices for polyethylene, epoxy ethane, polyester monomer, ethylene glycol, and styrene are 6534, 5750, 8200, 3829, and 6796 RMB/ton respectively, with varying week-on-week changes [16][18]. - The report notes that the price of polypropylene has slightly increased by 1.79% week-on-week, while acrylic acid prices remained stable [33][36]. - Brent crude oil prices were recorded at 61.08 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%, and natural gas prices at 3.02 USD/MMBtu, down 29.02% [41][44]. Price Differentials - As of January 9, the price differentials for ethylene-ethane, ethylene glycol-ethylene, and other product pairs have shown various changes, with some differentials widening [62][65]. - The ethylene-ethane differential increased by 1.30%, while the ethylene glycol-ethylene differential decreased by 8.40% [70][74]. Competitive Landscape and Downstream Demand - The report indicates that the ethylene-naphtha differential is -1301 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.04% [87]. - The cost advantages of ethane cracking over other routes have been emphasized, particularly with the recent decline in ethane prices [90].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral outlook on the oil and chemical industry for 2026, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their performance and market conditions [10]. Core Insights - OPEC+ has decided to continue its production cuts, with a focus on cautious and flexible adjustments based on market conditions. The group has reaffirmed its commitment to compensate for overproduction since January 2024, which is expected to support oil prices in the short term [2][5]. - The downstream polyester sector is tightening in supply and demand, with expectations for improvement in market conditions. Key recommendations include high-quality companies in polyester filament and bottle-grade materials [10]. - The report highlights that oil prices are expected to stabilize, with a limited downside, and suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and improving operational quality [10]. Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ has confirmed a pause in its planned production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day for February and March 2026 due to seasonal demand weakness. The group emphasizes the need for full compensation for overproduction since January 2024 [2][5]. - The actual production for Q1 2026 is expected to be lower than nominal quotas, with adjustments in compensation plans leading to a reduction of 0.1-0.2 million barrels per day compared to nominal quotas [5]. Price Trends - As of January 9, 2026, Brent crude oil futures closed at $63.34 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.26%. WTI futures rose to $59.12 per barrel, up 3.14% [14]. - The report notes that the average price for Brent and WTI for the week was $61.55 and $57.66 per barrel, respectively, indicating slight fluctuations in the market [14]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from improved cost structures and competitive advantages [10]. - It also highlights the offshore oil service sector, suggesting continued optimism for companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering due to high capital expenditures in offshore exploration [10]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the U.S. oil production for January 2, 2026, was 13.81 million barrels per day, showing a slight decrease from the previous week but a year-on-year increase of 330,000 barrels per day [23]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased to 544, down 2 from the previous week and down 40 year-on-year, indicating a potential slowdown in exploration activities [25]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the oil and chemical sector, detailing market capitalization, earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for companies like China National Petroleum and Hengli Petrochemical [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment rating due to clear short-term support from the oil supply side [2][3]. Core Insights - OPEC+ continues to pause production increases, with a focus on compensating for overproduction since January 2024, which strengthens short-term supply support [2][3]. - The upstream sector is experiencing rising oil prices, while day rates for self-elevating drilling rigs are declining, indicating a mixed outlook for drilling services [2][13]. - The refining sector shows a decrease in overseas refined oil crack spreads, while olefin spreads are increasing, suggesting a potential improvement in refining profitability [2][47]. - The polyester sector is witnessing a decline in PTA profitability but an increase in polyester filament profitability, indicating a need for close monitoring of demand changes [2][10]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $63.34 per barrel, up 4.26% week-on-week, while WTI futures rose 3.14% to $59.12 per barrel [13]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.83 million barrels to 419 million barrels, which is 3% lower than the five-year average [14]. - The number of active U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 544, down 2 rigs from the previous week and down 40 rigs year-on-year [27]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $11.04 per barrel, down $4.15 from the previous week [49]. - The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread increased to $15.4 per barrel, up $1.3 from the previous week, but still below the historical average of $24.5 per barrel [52]. - The olefin sector shows a positive trend with an increase in the ethylene-crude oil spread, indicating potential profitability improvements [57]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have declined, with the average price in East China at 5069.25 CNY per ton, down 0.75% week-on-week [2]. - The polyester filament POY spread increased to 905 CNY per ton, up 17 CNY from the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in profitability [2][10]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with expectations for gradual improvement as new capacity comes online [2][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to tightening supply and demand conditions [10]. - It suggests monitoring large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which may benefit from improved cost structures and competitive advantages [10]. - The upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with recommendations for offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Offshore Engineering [10].