Core Viewpoint - In the third quarter, the company achieved a total revenue of 11.311 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38%. The non-recurring net profit for the quarter was 1.342 billion yuan, down 28% year-on-year but up 11% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 11.311 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a 12% decline year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the third quarter was 1.011 billion yuan, which is a 38% decrease compared to the same period last year [2]. - The non-recurring net profit for the third quarter was 1.342 billion yuan, down 28% year-on-year but showing an 11% increase compared to the previous quarter [2][3]. Product and Cost Analysis - The company’s C2 route focuses on EO/EG products, with plans to launch ethanolamine production in 2024, enhancing product diversification and industry chain completeness [1][4]. - The company maintains a significant cost advantage in ethane cracking compared to oil-based routes, contributing to its profitability [1][4]. - The C3 chain, particularly the acrylic acid and ester industry chain, remains profitable, with the 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project also contributing positively to earnings [1][4]. Market Conditions and Price Dynamics - Despite maintenance activities affecting production volumes, the company benefited from a decrease in raw material prices, which improved product price spreads [3]. - In Q3, the average price of ethane in the U.S. was approximately $0.23 per gallon, down 6% quarter-on-quarter, while domestic propane prices averaged $569 per ton, down 8% [3]. - Although product prices also declined, the decrease was less significant than that of raw materials, leading to an overall expansion in product price spreads, which was a key factor in the quarter-on-quarter growth of non-recurring profits [3]. Future Outlook - The company aims to maximize industry chain benefits through efficient production operations, cost optimization, and innovation in high polymer materials [1][4]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 5.238 billion yuan, 6.381 billion yuan, and 7.898 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11.7X, 9.6X, and 7.8X [5].

Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.755 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.69% [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 alone, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.011 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 38.21% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.95% [1]

2025 年 10 月 27 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李振方 S0350524080003 lizf@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 乙烯装置检修完成，2025 年前三季度归母净利 润同比增加 ——卫星化学（002648）2025 年三季报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/10/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 卫星化学 | -2.5% | -2.1% | -0.5% | | 沪深 300 | 2.1% | 12.3% | 18.6% | | 市场数据 | 2025/10/24 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 18.24 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 15.54-23.19 | | 总市值（百万） | 61,444.10 | | 流通市值 ...

证券研究报告 卫星化学 (002648 CH) Q3 经营向好，行业景气改善可期 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 10 月 | 27 日│中国内地 | 石油化工 | 目标价(人民币): | 20.20 | 卫星化学发布三季报：Q3实现营收113.11亿元（yoy-12.15%，qoq+1.61%）， 归母净利 10.11 亿元（yoy-38.21%，qoq-13.95%）。2025 年 Q1-Q3 实现 营收 347.71 亿元（yoy+7.73%），归母净利 37.55 亿元（yoy+1.69%）， 扣非净利 42.38 亿元（yoy+3.65%）。公司 Q3 归母净利略低于我们前瞻预 期（11 亿元），主要是相关金融资产亏损导致的非经常性损益引起。但考 虑公司增量项目支持以及轻烃路线的竞争优势，我们认为公司仍有较强的竞 争实力与增长潜力。维持"增持"评级。 Q3 经营整体向好，金融资产亏损致净利环比下降 7 月 2 日美国已正式撤销针对乙烷的限制性许可要求，3 季度公 ...

10 月24 日晚，卫星化学发布2025 年三季报，实现营业总收入347.71亿元，同比+7.73%；实现归母净利 润37.55 亿元，同比增长1.69%；实现扣非净利润42.38 亿元，同比增长3.65%。其中，Q3 单季度实现营 收113.11 亿元，同比-12.15%/环比+1.61%；实现归母净利润10.11 亿元，同比-38.21%/ 环比-13.95%； 扣 非归母净利润13.42 亿元， 同比-27.63%/+11.45%。 C2 检修影响三季度业绩，扣非盈利环比改善单季度盈利来看，归母净利润同比环比下滑，主要是由于 白银租赁价格上涨导致的非经常性损益变动，扣非归母净利润环比实现增长。同时考虑到三季度有2 套 聚乙烯装置、1 套环氧乙烷/乙二醇装置及配套原料装置例行检修因素，检修时间45 天，对产销量产生 影响及导致相关费用计提，因此实际经营盈利环比改善明显。 25Q3，美国乙烷价格淡季继续下滑，丙烷价格小幅下跌。三季度乙烷均价23.13 美分/加仑，较上季度 24.11 美分/加仑环比-4.05%，丙烷均价4625.53 元/吨，环比-8.32%。Q3 主要产品价格分化，乙二醇/聚 乙烯/丙烯 ...

Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical has shown a contradictory performance in its recent quarterly report, with a 38.21% year-on-year decline in profit for Q3, yet a positive growth in net profit for the first three quarters, alongside a 16.28% increase in operating cash flow and a reduction in debt ratio [1]. Valuation Summary - The current stock price of Satellite Chemical is around 18, with a PE ratio of 9.78, significantly lower than the chemical industry average of 15. The PB ratio stands at 2.06, indicating a substantial safety margin. However, the cyclical nature of the chemical industry raises concerns about whether the company’s performance has truly bottomed out [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The company is experiencing short-term pressure but has strong long-term fundamentals, characterized by its "light hydrocarbon integration" advantage, which allows it to use ethane and propane as raw materials, reducing costs by 20%-30% compared to traditional methods. This competitive edge has helped maintain profitability amid falling chemical prices. Additionally, the company is transitioning to high-end products, being the only domestic producer of metallocene polyethylene, which commands a premium of over 30% [3][4]. Market Trends - Satellite Chemical is positioned at two significant market trends: the growth of renewable energy, particularly with its POE films used in N-type photovoltaic cells, and domestic substitution, as high-end materials like metallocene polyethylene and POE previously relied on 30% imports. The company stands to benefit from a substantial market space supported by policy initiatives [4]. Funding Signals - There is a mixed signal regarding funding, with state-owned funds like social security and pension funds increasing their holdings, indicating a long-term value outlook. Conversely, northbound funds and some public offerings are withdrawing, likely due to concerns over Q3 performance and cyclical uncertainties. This divergence suggests a potential for stock price volatility [4]. Strategic Recommendations - For aggressive investors, if the stock price breaks through the key level of 20 with increased volume, it may be worth a small position, but with a stop-loss below 18. For conservative and long-term investors, it is advisable to wait for a price correction to the 16-17 range or clear signs of product price increases and high-end project launches before gradually entering the market [4][5]. Overall Assessment - Satellite Chemical is likened to a long-distance runner with strong fundamentals in low-cost production and high-end transformation, facing challenges from cyclical downturns. Long-term prospects are supported by domestic substitution and renewable energy demand, while short-term survival through the current cycle is crucial [5].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 34.771 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.73%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.755 billion yuan, up 1.69% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 4.238 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.65% [6][9] - In Q3, the company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to the impact of maintenance on production and rising leasing prices. However, the net profit after deducting non-recurring items improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis [7][9] - The company is advancing new projects, including a high-end new materials industrial park project with a total investment of approximately 26.6 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance long-term growth potential [8][9] Financial Summary - For 2025-2027, the company’s projected net profits are 5.556 billion yuan, 8.484 billion yuan, and 10.575 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.06, 7.24, and 5.81 [9][13] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 45.648 billion yuan in 2024 to 69.952 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.6% [13][14] - The gross profit margin is projected to fluctuate, with estimates of 19.2% in 2025 and 23.9% in 2027 [13][14]

Group 1: Company Analysis - The report highlights the strong performance of Dongfang Caifu (300059.SZ), with a revenue of 11.589 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 58.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.097 billion yuan, up 50.6% year-on-year [9][10] - The company's return on equity (ROE) stands at 10.74%, an increase of 2.60 percentage points compared to the previous year [9] - The significant growth in the company's securities business, particularly in brokerage and margin financing, is attributed to the active trading environment in the capital market since Q4 2024 [9][10] Group 2: Industry Insights - The report discusses the recovery of the fund distribution business, noting that Dongfang Caifu's fund distribution scale is leading in the industry, with a total of 1.0572 trillion yuan in fund sales for the first half of 2025 [11] - The report emphasizes the resilience of the export market, with a surprising export growth rate of 6.6% in Q3 2025, indicating a robust recovery despite expectations of a decline [15] - The media industry is identified as having a favorable seasonal effect, particularly in November, suggesting a good opportunity for investment in this sector [33]

高性能催化新材料项目落地，加速打造打造低碳化学新材料科技公司。公司投资30 亿元签约高性能催 化新材料项目，通过自研科技创新推动高端化学品及新材料生产。此外，公司投资257 亿元在连云港徐 圩新区投资新建α-烯烃综合利用高端新材料产业园项目，项目一阶段目前已经全面开始建设，预计将于 2026 年投产。公司已组建了高水平研发团队，提前布局突破"卡脖子"技术难题，α-烯烃综合利用高端新 材料产业园项目向下游延伸布局高端聚烯烃、α-烯烃、聚乙烯弹性体等产品，同时公司正着力研发基于 碳氢化合物的浸没式液冷冷却液，长期成长可期。 2025 年前三季度扣非归母净利润同比增长3.7%，业绩符合预期。公司2025年前三季度实现营收347.7 亿 元（同比+7.7%），归母净利润37.6 亿元（同比+1.7%），扣非归母净利润42.4 元（同比+3.7%）。公司 2025 年单三季度实现营收113.1 亿元（同比-12.2%，环比+1.6%），归母净利润10.1 亿元（同 比-38.2%，环比-14.0%），扣非归母净利润13.4 亿元（同比-27.6%，环比+11.5%）；毛利率为21.0% （同比-2.6pcts，环比+1 ...

基础化工·化学制品 证券研究报告 | 2025年10月26日 | 证券分析师：杨林 | 证券分析师：薛聪 | | --- | --- | | 010-88005379 | 010-88005107 | | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | xuecong@guosen.com.cn | | S0980520120002 | S0980520120001 | | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 优于大市(维持) | | 合理估值 | | | 收盘价 | 18.24 元 | | 总市值/流通市值 | 61444/61405 百万元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 23.19/15.54 元 | | 近 3 个月日均成交额 | 941.30 百万元 | 市场走势 卫星化学（002648.SZ） 优于大市 检修影响第三季度利润，看好公司长期成长 《卫星化学（002648.SZ）-2025 年上半年归母净利润同比增长 33%，高端新材料成长可期》 ——2025-08-13 《卫星化学（002648.SZ）-全年归母净利润同比增长 27%，轻烃 新项目助力成长》 ——2025-03-26 核心观点 ...