证 券 研 究 报 告 卫星化学（002648）2024 年三季报点评 强推（维持） Q3 业绩符合预期，α-烯烃项目配套持续完善 目标价：25.61 元 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

公司报告 | 季报点评 三季度业绩同比提高，新项目原料有保障 1. 公司第三季度归母净利润 16.4 亿 根据公司 2024 年三季报，2024 年前三季度公司归母净利润为 36.9 亿元， 同比提高 7.6%。其中公司第三季度归母净利润为 16.4 亿，同比提高 2.1%。 我们认为其主要原因为乙烷价格持续处于低位。 2. 乙烷裂解利润环比提高 2024 年 Q3，公司原材料乙烷的均价为 16 美分/加仑，跟 2023 年 Q3 的 29 美分/加仑相比有明显的下降。根据我们计算，2024 年 Q3，乙烷-乙烯的利 润为 2687 元/吨，同比提高 605 元/吨。 除此之外，MEG 的利润也有回升，根据我们计算，2024 年 Q3，乙烯-MEG 的利润为 485 元/吨，跟 2023 年 Q3 的-230 元/吨相比，实现了扭亏为盈。 3. 公司丁辛醇项目一阶段顺利投产 2024 年 7 月 15 日，公司年产 80 万吨多碳醇项目一阶段装置经投料试生产 之后已经产出合格产品，有效解决了卫星化学 C3 一体化产业链上下游原 料配套的问题，实现 C3 产业链耦合闭环。 4. 新船订单签订，预计 2027 年 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年10月22日 卫星化学（002648.SZ） 优于大市 第三季度扣非归母净利润同比增长 32%，看好公司长期成长 2024 年第三季度扣非归母净利润同比增长 32%，业绩符合预期。2024 年前 三季度公司实现营业收入 322.8 亿元（同比+0.7%），归母净利润 36.9 亿元 （同比+7.6%），扣非归母净利润 40.9 亿元（同比+20.5%）。2024 年单三季 度公司实现营业收入 128.8 亿元（同比+9.9%，环比+21.5%），归母净利润 16.4 亿元（同比+2.1%，环比+58.4%），扣非归母净利润 18.5 亿元（同比 +32.0%，环比+58.3%），业绩符合预期，单三季度毛利率为 23.6%（同比 +2.6pcts，环比+3.0pcts），净利率为 12.7%（同比-1.6pcts，环比+3.0pcts）。 乙烷成本端价格下降明显，公司盈利稳定向好。公司是国内领先的轻烃产业 链一体化生产龙头企业。原材料方面，第三季度美国乙烷均价为 15.7 美分/ 加仑（同比-46.6%，环比-20.7%），国内丙烷 CFR 均价为 654.4 美元/吨（同 比+4. ...

Revenue and Profit - Revenue for the reporting period was RMB 12.87 billion, a 9.89% increase compared to the same period last year[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 1.64 billion, a 2.08% increase year-over-year[4] - Total revenue for the quarter reached 32.275 billion yuan, a slight increase from 32.049 billion yuan in the same period last year[18] - Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders was 3.693 billion yuan, up from 3.431 billion yuan in the previous year[20] - Comprehensive income for the period was 3.660 billion yuan, up from 3.494 billion yuan in the prior year[21] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Operating cash flow for the year-to-date was RMB 5.69 billion, up 24.72% compared to the same period last year[4] - Cash flow from operating activities was 37.861 billion yuan, up from 34.258 billion yuan in the same period last year[22] - Sales of goods and services generated 36.820 billion yuan in cash, compared to 33.273 billion yuan in the previous year[22] - Operating cash flow increased to 5.694 billion yuan, up 24.7% from 4.566 billion yuan in the previous period[23] - Investment cash outflow rose to 2.423 billion yuan, a 1% increase from 2.399 billion yuan[23] - Financing cash inflow grew to 9.119 billion yuan, up 14.2% from 7.984 billion yuan[24] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period reached 6.683 billion yuan, a 25.4% increase from 5.327 billion yuan[24] - Exchange rate impact on cash was negative 114.48 million yuan, compared to positive 78.51 million yuan in the previous period[24] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets reached RMB 67.65 billion, a 4.75% increase compared to the end of the previous year[5] - Equity attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 27.83 billion, a 9.27% increase compared to the end of the previous year[5] - Total assets increased to 67,651,935,462.95 RMB, up from 64,581,962,271.67 RMB[16] - Total liabilities amounted to 39.803 billion yuan, slightly higher than 39.089 billion yuan in the previous year[18] - Total equity attributable to parent company shareholders increased to 27.825 billion yuan from 25.465 billion yuan[18] - Short-term borrowings grew by 63.42% to 2,003,361,550.42 yuan due to increased short-term loans[8] - Long-term borrowings decreased to 9,068,556,037.08 RMB, down from 10,839,037,668.20 RMB[17] - Total current liabilities grew to 15,118,413,832.76 RMB, compared to 11,914,627,581.95 RMB[17] Earnings Per Share and Return on Equity - Basic earnings per share for the reporting period was RMB 0.49, a 2.08% increase year-over-year[4] - Diluted earnings per share for the reporting period was RMB 0.49, a 2.08% increase year-over-year[4] - Weighted average return on equity for the reporting period was 6.05%, a decrease of 0.40 percentage points compared to the same period last year[4] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) stood at 1.10 yuan, compared to 1.02 yuan in the prior year[21] Non-Recurring Items and Government Subsidies - Non-recurring gains and losses for the reporting period amounted to a loss of RMB 217.34 million[6] - Government subsidies received during the reporting period totaled RMB 18.18 million[6] - Non-operating income increased by 179.26% to 25,821,462.99 yuan due to higher external compensation received[9] Shareholder Information - Zhejiang Satellite Holding Co., Ltd. holds 34.60% of the shares, making it the largest shareholder[10] - YANG YA ZHEN, an overseas individual, holds 11.64% of the shares, making them the second-largest shareholder[10] Financial Expenses and Fair Value Changes - Financial expenses increased by 92.48% to 854,770,196.56 yuan due to higher exchange losses[8] - Fair value change losses amounted to -295,448,886.15 yuan, a decrease of 216.21% due to changes in fair value of transactional financial liabilities[8] Investments and Transactions - Transactional financial assets increased by 438.60% to 231,578,692.00 yuan due to increased investment in paper derivatives[8] - Transactional financial liabilities surged by 179.04% to 1,858,142,912.98 yuan due to increased silver leasing for catalyst carriers[8] - Investment income received decreased to 247.13 million yuan, down 7.1% from 266.16 million yuan[23] - Fixed asset investments increased to 2.121 billion yuan, up 10.7% from 1.916 billion yuan[23] Accounts Receivable and Payables - Accounts receivable rose by 62.85% to 1,041,293,383.94 yuan due to increased revenue[8] - Trade receivables rose to 1,041,293,383.94 RMB, compared to 639,438,097.89 RMB at the start of the period[15] - Prepayments increased by 70.03% to 603,401,602.65 yuan due to higher prepayments for materials[8] - Trade payables increased to 5,806,087,827.94 RMB, up from 5,037,284,130.44 RMB[17] Inventory and Current Assets - Inventory levels grew to 4,851,353,230.09 RMB, up from 4,233,443,857.76 RMB[15] - Total current assets reached 14,865,691,417.66 RMB, an increase from 12,732,908,389.32 RMB[16] Fixed Assets and Monetary Funds - Fixed assets expanded to 26,323,460,310.35 RMB, compared to 25,258,270,136.28 RMB[16] - The company's monetary funds increased to 6,898,975,671.70 RMB, up from 6,398,836,309.06 RMB at the beginning of the period[15] Employee Compensation and Taxes - Employee compensation and benefits paid increased to 980.19 million yuan, up 21.1% from 809.01 million yuan[23] - Taxes paid rose to 1.138 billion yuan, a 7.1% increase from 1.063 billion yuan[23] Dividend Payments - Dividend payments surged to 1.647 billion yuan, a 259.4% increase from 458.35 million yuan[24] Operating Costs and R&D Expenses - Operating costs decreased to 27.870 billion yuan from 28.408 billion yuan year-over-year[19] - R&D expenses increased to 1.293 billion yuan, up from 1.240 billion yuan in the previous year[19]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/化工/石油化工 证券研究报告 Borong Li br.li@htisec.com Xin Hu x.hu@htisec.com 卫星化学（002648）公司季报点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 多碳醇项目顺利投产，实现 C3 产业链耦 合闭环 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件：公司发布 2024 年半年报。2024 年 H1，公司实现营业收入 194 亿元， 同比下降 4.59%；实现归母净利润 20.56 亿元，同比增长 12.51%。 80 万吨多碳醇项目顺利投产，实现 C3 产业链耦合闭环。2024 年 7 月 15 日， 公司 80 万吨多碳醇项目一阶段装置经投料试生产后已成功产出合格产品，标 志着卫星能源三期项目一阶段一次开车成功。卫星能源三期项目一阶段的开 车成功，有效解决了卫星化学 C3 一体化产业链上下游原料配套的问题，实现 C3 产业链耦合闭环，标志着卫星化学新材料产业链进一步提质升级，核心业 务产业基础不断夯实，产业链韧性持续增强。 α-烯烃综合利用项目开工建设，打造未来新增长点。2024H1,公司 α-烯烃综合 利用 ...

证券研究报告 化学原料 2024年09月25日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | 完善轻烃一体化布局，新材料蓄力公司成长 李永磊(证券分析师) S0350521080004 | 评级：买入(维持) 董伯骏(证券分析师) S0350521080009 | 卫星化学(002648)深度报告之三： 李振方(证券分析师) S0350524080003 | | | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | lizf@ghzq.com.cn | ...

[评Ta级ble：_Ran买k]入 [Table_Authors] 翟绪丽 首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522010001 zhaixuli@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152683 资料来源：聚源数据 [市T场abl指e数_Ch走a势rt]（最近 1 年） [Tabl事e_件Su：mm公a司ry]发布 2024 年中报，报告期内实现营业收入 194.00 亿元，同 比-4.59%，实现归母净利润 20.56 亿元，同比+12.51%，其中 Q1/Q2 分 别 归 母 净 利 润 为 10.23/10.33 亿 元 ， 同 比 +46.55%/-8.51% ， 环 比 -26.73%/+1.06%。2024H1，公司毛利率为 21.08%，同比+3.57pct，净利 率为 10.58%，同比+1.38pct。 半年度业绩同比增长，Q2 单季度盈利环比小幅增长。2024Q2 单季度， 公司 C2 和 C3 产业链中多数产品的价差环比扩大，盈利能力修复。其 中，C2 产业链中的主营产品 HDPE、环氧乙烷、乙二醇、苯乙烯、DMC 的价差分别为 2114 元/吨、1682 元/吨、636 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 卫星化学（002648）深度研究报告 强推（维持） 绿色低碳先锋，创新引领成长 目标价：21.71 元 ❖ 轻烃一体化龙头，打造低碳化学新材料科技公司。卫星化学以丙烯酸及酯业务 起家，目前已形成 C2+C3 双产业链的完整布局，确立了以乙烷、丙烷等轻烃 作为原料，以低碳化学新材料作为核心产品的发展战略，构建了以功能化学品、 高分子材料及新能源材料三大产品为主导的体系，一体化竞争优势持续增强。 后续公司将加快完善绿色低碳全产业链布局，通过持续的自主研发与技术创 新，塑造烯烃产业链的新质生产力。 ❖ C2 项目：先发布局，壁垒突出，塑造长期成长曲线。当前乙烯原料多元化、 轻质化趋势明显，国内仍有较大进口替代空间。相比于传统工艺路线，乙烷裂 解工艺在乙烯收率、经济效益、投资强度、能耗及副产资源方面均具备显著优 势，核心竞争力持续增强；而美国乙烷自身供需宽松的格局又决定了乙烷价格 或长期维持相对低位，乙烷裂解价差或将延续高景气态势。公司通过前瞻布局， 在乙烷管道、乙烷出口设施及乙烷运输船等方面构建起坚实的行业护城河，占 据全产业链的先发优势，而乙烷供应链体系的高壁垒或将持续优化竞争格局。 乙烷 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 08 月 13 日 卫星化学（002648.SZ） 国内轻烃裂解一体化龙头之一，看好公司高端聚烯烃进口替代 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 37,043 | 41,487 | 45,325 | 51,612 | 60,505 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 29.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 13.9 | 17.2 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,096 | 4,789 | 5,277 | 6,533 | 8,399 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -48.5 | 54.7 | 10.2 | 23.8 | 28.6 | | ROE（%） | 14.0 | 18.8 | 17.9 | 18.6 | 19.7 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0. ...

证券代码：002648 证券简称：卫星化学 编号：20240813 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...