Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform in line with the overall market [3][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in crude oil prices in Q4 2025, with Brent crude averaging $63.1 per barrel, down 7.4% quarter-on-quarter and 14.7% year-on-year [3][4]. - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with upstream operations facing pressure while downstream profitability is showing signs of improvement [3]. - The report forecasts a tightening supply-demand balance in the polyester sector, suggesting potential for improved market conditions [3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In Q4 2025, Brent crude oil prices averaged $63.1 per barrel, with a range of $59-66 per barrel. Gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted downwards by 325 CNY/ton and 340 CNY/ton respectively [3][4]. - Key petrochemical products showed varied price movements, with notable declines in prices for polyethylene and polypropylene, down 16% and 14.2% year-on-year respectively [4]. Price Differentials - The report notes that the price differential for crude oil catalytic cracking increased to 1374 CNY/ton, up 12.5% quarter-on-quarter, while the differential for ethylene from naphtha decreased by 20.1% [5][6]. - The price differential for PX and PTA expanded, indicating improved margins in the polyester chain [5][6]. Company Performance Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies in the sector, predicting a net profit of 27 billion CNY for China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), down 16% year-on-year, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is expected to see a profit of 30 billion CNY, up 41% year-on-year [3][7]. - Other companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical are also highlighted, with expected profits of 1.7 billion CNY and 250 million CNY respectively [3][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in cost structures [3]. - It also suggests maintaining a positive outlook on offshore oil service companies like CNOOC and Haiyou Engineering, anticipating continued high demand in offshore capital expenditures [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in crude oil prices in Q4 2025, with Brent crude averaging $63.1 per barrel, down 7.4% quarter-on-quarter and 14.7% year-on-year [3]. - The report anticipates a mixed performance across the petrochemical sector, with upstream performance under pressure while downstream sectors show signs of improvement [3]. - Key companies in the industry are expected to experience varied profit margins, with some facing significant declines while others show resilience [3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - Brent crude oil price in Q4 2025 was $63.1 per barrel, down 7.5% from Q3 and 14.8% year-on-year [4]. - Key petrochemical products such as methanol and polypropylene saw price declines of 8.2% and 8.3% respectively in Q4 2025 compared to Q3 [4]. Price Differentials - The report notes that the price differential for crude oil catalytic cracking increased by 12.5% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 1374 RMB/ton [5]. - The price differential for PX-Nafta increased by 7.6% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a positive trend for certain segments [6]. Company Performance Forecasts - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is projected to have a net profit of 27 billion RMB in Q4 2025, a decrease of 16% year-on-year [3]. - Sinopec is expected to face significant impairment pressures, with a projected net profit of only 500 million RMB, down 92% year-on-year [3]. - The report forecasts a net profit of 14 billion RMB for Satellite Chemical, reflecting a 41% decline year-on-year but a 38% increase quarter-on-quarter [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co., and bottle-grade PET producers like Wankai New Materials [3]. - It suggests monitoring large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in cost structures [3]. - The report also highlights the potential of offshore oil service companies, recommending firms like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering for their strong performance outlook [3].

Core Viewpoint - The development of the Xuwei New Area is significantly driven by major projects in the petrochemical industry, aiming to establish a modern industrial system that integrates refining, new materials, and high-end manufacturing, with a projected GDP of 45 billion yuan by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2][4]. Group 1: Industrial Development - The Xuwei New Area has implemented 81 key industrial projects with a total investment of 452.7 billion yuan, achieving an actual investment of 192.2 billion yuan [2]. - The petrochemical base is expected to achieve an industrial output value of 218 billion yuan in 2023, representing a 9.3-fold increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with an annual growth rate of 60% [1]. - The area has established a complete supply chain for petrochemicals, integrating oil, gas, and coal resources, and is focusing on high-end polyethylene, high-performance resins, and specialty chemicals [5][6]. Group 2: Project Implementation - The Xuwei New Area has adopted a "chain-based" approach to strengthen its leading industrial chains and promote high-quality development through efficient project execution [3][5]. - Major projects such as the world's largest integrated refining and chemical project by Shenghong and the PTA project have been successfully launched, contributing to the area's industrial growth [3][7]. - The area has optimized production factor supply, saving companies over 200 million yuan annually in production costs through various initiatives [3]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The Xuwei New Area is focusing on attracting high-quality projects with a total investment exceeding 40 billion yuan, enhancing its industrial sustainability [3]. - The establishment of a proton automotive core component manufacturing base, with an expected annual output value of over 20 billion yuan, marks a significant step towards diversifying the area's industrial landscape [6]. - The area is also developing strategic emerging industries, including high-performance fibers and new energy materials, to transition from a single industrial focus to a more diversified economic structure [6][9]. Group 4: Competitive Positioning - The Xuwei New Area has risen from being among the top 30 potential chemical parks in China to the 8th position nationally, recognized as a national green industrial park [9]. - The collaboration among leading enterprises like Shenghong and Satellite Chemical has created a "head group army" effect, enhancing the overall growth of the petrochemical industry in the region [7][8]. - The area is striving to transform its industrial aggregation into a core urban competitiveness, aiming to join the ranks of the world's trillion-dollar petrochemical industry [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the polyester sector, particularly recommending high-quality companies in the polyester filament and bottle chip segments [6][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the cost support for polyester filament remains solid, with expectations for inventory replenishment post-holiday. The operating rate of polyester filament has significantly decreased, laying a foundation for recovery after the Spring Festival [6][7]. - Polyester filament inventory has been consistently declining since the beginning of 2026, with downstream textile raw material inventory also at low levels, indicating a strong demand for replenishment after the holiday [7][11]. - The price spread of polyester filament has improved significantly, with cost support expected to remain strong due to stable raw material prices and proactive supply adjustments [11][13]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The operating rate of polyester filament has dropped to 79.65%, down approximately 16 percentage points from previous highs, as companies conduct maintenance ahead of the holiday [6]. - Downstream textile operating rates have fallen to 25.15%, marking a low for the year, which is expected to lead to a rigid demand for inventory replenishment post-holiday [6][7]. Price Trends - As of February 6, 2026, the price spreads for polyester filament POY, FDY, and DTY are 1375, 1575, and 2475 CNY/ton respectively, indicating a recovery in price spreads since late January 2026 [11]. - The PTA price, a key raw material for polyester filament, remains high, with limited downward pressure expected, providing solid support for filament prices throughout the year [11][13]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester filament sector such as Tongkun Co., Ltd. and in the bottle chip sector like Wankai New Materials. It also suggests monitoring leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in cost structures [13][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the polyester filament industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for quality companies in this sector [5][14]. Core Insights - The cost support for polyester filament raw materials remains solid, with expectations for a post-holiday inventory replenishment trend. The industry is currently in a seasonal lull before the Spring Festival, but proactive supply adjustments are laying the groundwork for recovery after the holiday [5][6]. - As of February 6, 2026, the operating rate for downstream textile production has dropped to 25.15%, while the operating rate for polyester filament has decreased to 79.65%. This decline is attributed to seasonal maintenance and self-regulated production cuts, effectively alleviating supply pressure [5][6]. - Inventory levels for polyester filament (POY/FDY/DTY) are at historical lows, with respective days of inventory at 12.7, 15.8, and 19.4 days. Downstream raw material inventory has also fallen to a historical low of 8.74 days, indicating a clear need for replenishment post-holiday [5][7]. - The price spread for polyester filament has significantly improved since late January 2026, with POY/FDY/DTY spreads recovering to 1375, 1575, and 2475 CNY/ton respectively. The PTA cost support remains robust, with no major new PTA facilities expected to come online in 2026, suggesting a tight supply-demand balance that will continue to support filament prices [5][12]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, with the closing price on February 6, 2026, at 68.05 USD/barrel, down 3.73% from the previous week. The WTI price was 63.55 USD/barrel, down 2.55% [21]. - As of January 30, 2026, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 420 million barrels, a decrease of 3.455 million barrels from the previous week, marking a 4% decline compared to the past five years [23]. Refining Sector - The comprehensive price spread for major refined products in Singapore increased to 15.63 USD/barrel as of February 6, 2026, reflecting a rise of 6.2 USD/barrel from the previous week [60]. - The price spread for gasoline (RBOB) against WTI crude oil was 18.4 USD/barrel, up 1.8 USD/barrel from the previous week, although still below the historical average of 24.5 USD/barrel [63]. Polyester Sector - The profitability of PTA has increased, while the profitability of polyester filament has decreased. As of February 4, 2026, the average price of PX in Asia was 904.93 USD/ton, down 1.78% week-on-week [5][14]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is currently average, with expectations for gradual improvement as new production capacities are expected to taper off in the coming years [5][14].

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [5] Core Views - The report indicates that geopolitical tensions have significantly influenced oil prices, with Brent crude averaging $64.7 per barrel in January 2026, up $3.1 from the previous month, and WTI averaging $60.2 per barrel, up $2.4 [1][12] - OPEC+ has decided to continue suspending oil production increases in March 2026, maintaining a cautious approach to supply amid fluctuating geopolitical conditions [1][16] - Demand for crude oil is projected to grow between 930,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with further increases expected in 2027 [2][17] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In January 2026, Brent crude futures averaged $64.7 per barrel, while WTI averaged $60.2 per barrel, reflecting significant fluctuations due to geopolitical events [1][12] - The report highlights that U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and potential military actions against Iran have contributed to price volatility [1][12] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production cuts, with a collective reduction of 2 million barrels per day extended through the end of 2026 [16][20] - The report anticipates that the Brent crude price will stabilize between $55 and $65 per barrel in 2026, while WTI is expected to range from $52 to $62 per barrel [18][38] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in crude oil demand, with OPEC estimating a rise to 106.52 million barrels per day in 2026, up from 105.10 million barrels per day in 2025 [2][17] - The demand growth rate is expected to accelerate in 2027, with projections of 107.86 million barrels per day from OPEC [2][17] Key Company Earnings Forecast and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, and Satellite Chemical are rated as "Outperform" with respective earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [4] - CNOOC is projected to have an EPS of 2.90 in 2024 and 2.66 in 2025, while PetroChina is expected to have an EPS of 0.90 in 2024 and 0.91 in 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [1][5][4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude averaging $64.7 per barrel in January 2026, up $3.1 from the previous month, and WTI averaging $60.2 per barrel, up $2.4 [1][12] - OPEC+ has decided to continue suspending oil production increases into March 2026, maintaining a cautious approach amid seasonal factors and geopolitical uncertainties [1][16][20] - Demand for crude oil is projected to grow between 930,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with further increases expected in 2027 [2][17] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In January 2026, Brent crude futures averaged $64.7 per barrel, while WTI averaged $60.2 per barrel, reflecting a month-on-month increase [1][12] - Geopolitical events, including U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and tensions with Iran, have contributed to price volatility [1][12] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production cuts, with a collective reduction of 2 million barrels per day extended through the end of 2026 [1][20] - The report anticipates that the average Brent price will stabilize between $55 and $65 per barrel in 2026, while WTI is expected to range from $52 to $62 per barrel [3][38] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in global crude oil demand, with OPEC, IEA, and EIA estimating demand for 2026 at approximately 106.52 million, 104.83 million, and 105.10 million barrels per day, respectively [2][17] - The demand growth for 2027 is expected to be higher, with OPEC and EIA predicting increases of 134,000 and 126,000 barrels per day [2][17] Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development are rated as "Outperform" with respective earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [4][5] - CNOOC is projected to have an EPS of 2.90 in 2024 and 2.66 in 2025, while PetroChina is expected to have an EPS of 0.90 in 2024 and 0.91 in 2025 [4][5]

1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the basic chemical industry's weekly data, covering price and profit changes in multiple sectors such as polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, coal - chemical, and animal nutrition, and also tracks the stock price performance and profitability of related listed companies [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking**: - **Stock Price Changes**: The basic chemical index decreased by 2.1% in the past week, increased by 9.0% in the past month, 17.6% in the past three months, 48.7% in the past year, and 10.4% since the beginning of 2026. Among the related listed companies, New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. (002001.SZ) had a 6.8% increase in the past week, while other companies such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (600309.SH) and Baofeng Energy Group Co., Ltd. (600989.SH) had varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Profitability**: The report provides the total market value, stock price, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of related listed companies from 2024A to 2027E [8]. - **Industry Chain Data**: - **Polyurethane Industry Chain**: This week, the average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI were 17,500 yuan/ton, 13,900 yuan/ton, and 14,377 yuan/ton respectively. The corresponding weekly changes were - 43 yuan/ton, + 36 yuan/ton, and + 292 yuan/ton, and the gross margins were 4,097 yuan/ton, 1,497 yuan/ton, and 2,345 yuan/ton respectively [2][8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain**: The average prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha were 1,277 yuan/ton, 4,399 yuan/ton, 520 yuan/ton, and 4,137 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly changes of - 139 yuan/ton, + 51 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and + 63 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of polyethylene production through different processes and polypropylene production through different processes also had corresponding changes [2][8]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain**: The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid were 2,119 yuan/ton, 1,758 yuan/ton, 4,004 yuan/ton, and 2,511 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly changes of - 65 yuan/ton, + 13 yuan/ton, + 41 yuan/ton, and - 69 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross margins also changed [2]. - **Animal Nutrition Industry Chain**: The average prices of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine were 61.4 yuan/kg, 55.9 yuan/kg, 18.2 yuan/kg, and 14.3 yuan/kg respectively, with weekly changes of - 0.1 yuan/kg, + 0.9 yuan/kg, + 0.3 yuan/kg, and + 0.1 yuan/kg [2][9]. 3.2 Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **Basic Chemical Index Trend**: The report does not elaborate on the basic chemical index trend but focuses on the performance data of the index and related companies [8]. - **Polyurethane Plate**: Analyzes the price trends and price - spread situations of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI in China [16][19]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Plate**: Discusses the price trends of raw materials such as ethane, propane, natural gas, and crude oil, as well as the profitability of different processes for producing polyethylene and polypropylene [23][31][38]. - **Coal - Chemical Plate**: Covers the price and gross margin trends of coal - coking products and traditional coal - chemical products, as well as some new materials [40][45][52]. - **Animal Nutrition Plate**: Analyzes the price trends of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine [57][59][63].

Core Viewpoint - The epoxy propylene sector has experienced a significant price surge since January, with various companies seeing substantial stock price increases, driven by supply-demand dynamics and market speculation [2][3][4]. Price Increase - In January, stock prices of companies related to epoxy propylene saw remarkable increases, with Meibang Technology rising by 67.45% and Hongbaoli by 68.92% [3]. - The benchmark price of epoxy propylene reached 8200.00 yuan/ton by January 30, marking a 6.03% increase from the beginning of the month, with some periods seeing nearly a 10% rise [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price increase is attributed to changes in the supply-demand landscape, with reduced operating loads in northern regions and a positive outlook in the downstream market leading to increased purchasing activity [4][5]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain products is expected to drive a surge in orders before the April deadline, further boosting demand for epoxy propylene [5]. Market Trends - Despite the price surge, there are signs of a cooling market as purchasing sentiment declines due to high prices, leading to a potential downward adjustment in prices [6]. - The epoxy propylene industry is currently experiencing an oversupply situation, with low operating rates and expected new capacity additions by 2026 [6][7]. Demand Growth - Although there is oversupply, demand for epoxy propylene is showing slight growth, particularly in the appliance and export sectors, which is helping to sustain overall demand [7]. - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in February, with potential price rebounds later in the month as downstream factories resume operations [8].

昆仑信托助力卫星化学 完成绿色新材料生产试料 从试料业务 看见产业金融的新解法 在化工新材料产业链加速向高端化、绿色化升级的背景下，如何让金融工具真正嵌入实体产业运行逻辑，成为摆在行业面前的重要课题。 近日，昆仑信托创新构建的"信托+SPV"供应链金融模式，基础设施事业部通过管理的SPV公司与化工新材料领域头部企业浙江卫星化学实业有限公司和 金达科技股份有限公司开展合作，并顺利实现双方首次试料合作的成功落地，为产业链协同发展提供了新的金融解决方案。 龙头担当｜ 卫星化学夯实新材料产业"关键一环" 卫星化学股份有限公司是拥有原创技术优势的上市企业，也是中石油集团的重要合作客户。相较于传统原油制塑料颗粒的工艺，卫星化学采用天然气分离 的轻烃为原料，其产品的绿色优势贯穿全产业链，成品兼具低碳、低成本、高纯度的核心特性，能精准匹配金达科技的生产加工需求。 本次试料产品为聚苯乙烯，依托卫星化学的绿色产业布局，该原料供应稳定且成本可控，能帮助金达科技缓解传统石化原材料价格波动的压力，优化采购 成本与供应链管理。本次试料各环节成效良好，为双方后续深化合作奠定了坚实基础。 践行 "坚持节能降碳" 理念，聚焦绿色低碳化学新材料 ...