本周行情综述 风险提示 地缘政治扰动超预期；海外经济出现衰退；行业及国际政策环境变化。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 原油：本周原油快速上行，原油继续计价美伊开战风险，市场担忧伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡。我们预计当前地缘风 险溢价计价伊朗问题 8-10 美元/桶。基本面依然供过于求，前期支撑原油价格的利好寒潮以及哈萨克斯坦产量减 少的供应下降已经开始修复。同时俄乌达成停火一周协议，泽连斯基确认停止袭击俄罗斯能源设施，关注俄乌近 一步进展。地缘问题仍是市场交易核心，伊朗问题是主要焦点。我们预计伊朗问题落地前原油价格短期或继续保 持强势。如果伊朗烈度低于预期或者伊朗未发生实际冲突，交易中心重回供需则预计价格将回落。截止 1 月 29 日，WTI 现货收于 65.42 美元，环比+6.06 美元；BRENT 现货收于 72.57 美元，环比+6.6 美元。EIA1 月 23 日当 周商业原油库存环比-229.5 万桶，前值+360.2 万桶。其中库欣原油环比-27.8 万桶，前值+147.8 万桶。汽油库 存环比+22.3 万桶，前值+597.7 万桶。炼厂开工率环比-2.4%至 90.9%。美国原油库存下降，净进口量环 ...

本周行情综述 风险提示 地缘政治扰动超预期；海外经济出现衰退；行业及国际政策环境变化。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 原油：本周原油快速上行，原油继续计价美伊开战风险，市场担忧伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡。我们预计当前地缘风 险溢价计价伊朗问题 8-10 美元/桶。基本面依然供过于求，前期支撑原油价格的利好寒潮以及哈萨克斯坦产量减 少的供应下降已经开始修复。同时俄乌达成停火一周协议，泽连斯基确认停止袭击俄罗斯能源设施，关注俄乌近 一步进展。地缘问题仍是市场交易核心，伊朗问题是主要焦点。我们预计伊朗问题落地前原油价格短期或继续保 持强势。如果伊朗烈度低于预期或者伊朗未发生实际冲突，交易中心重回供需则预计价格将回落。截止 1 月 29 日，WTI 现货收于 65.42 美元，环比+6.06 美元；BRENT 现货收于 72.57 美元，环比+6.6 美元。EIA1 月 23 日当 周商业原油库存环比-229.5 万桶，前值+360.2 万桶。其中库欣原油环比-27.8 万桶，前值+147.8 万桶。汽油库 存环比+22.3 万桶，前值+597.7 万桶。炼厂开工率环比-2.4%至 90.9%。美国原油库存下降，净进口量环 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [66]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong price support from factories, with solid methionine prices rebounding [1]. - The average prices for various chemical products are provided, showing fluctuations in pricing and profitability across different segments [2]. - The report identifies key listed companies in the chemical sector, including Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and others [2]. Summary by Sections 2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trends - The report includes a weekly overview of the basic chemical index trends, indicating overall market movements [10]. 2.2 Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported as 17,543, 13,864, and 14,085 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -171, -36, and +110 CNY/ton [2]. - The gross margins for these products are 4,171, 1,493, and 2,363 CNY/ton, reflecting changes of -332, -196, and -15 CNY/ton [2]. 2.3 Oil, Coal, and Olefin Sector - Average prices for ethane, propane, thermal coal, and naphtha are reported as 1,416, 4,349, 520, and 4,074 CNY/ton respectively, with increases of +147, +52, +0, and +171 CNY/ton [2]. - The average price for polyethylene is 7,162 CNY/ton, showing a rise of +62 CNY/ton [2]. - The theoretical profits for ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking for polyethylene production are reported as 694, 1,438, and -245 CNY/ton, with respective changes of -161, +41, and -127 CNY/ton [2]. 2.4 Coal Chemical Sector - Average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,184, 1,745, 3,962, and 2,579 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -27, +5, +68, and -21 CNY/ton [2]. - The gross margins for these products are 199, 72, -92, and 445 CNY/ton, reflecting changes of -21, +1, +10, and -8 CNY/ton [2]. 2.5 Animal Nutrition Sector - Average prices for VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine are reported as 61.5, 55.1, 17.9, and 14.2 CNY/kg respectively, with changes of -0.7, +0.6, +0.3, and +0.0 CNY/kg [2].

| 华安研究 2026年2月金股组合 | 归母净利润 | （百万元 | ） | 归母净利润增速 | 营业收入 | （百万元） | 营业收入增速 | eps | pe(其余有说明 | ) | 行业 | 金股代码 | 金股 | 核心推荐逻辑 | 风险提示 | 研究员 | 报告依据 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the chemical industry, highlighting the potential benefits from the "dual carbon" policy implementation [5]. Core Insights - The "dual carbon" policy is expected to significantly impact the chemical industry, with a focus on carbon emissions control becoming a rigid constraint during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6][14]. - The report identifies that the attention towards "dual carbon" from provincial leaders has increased by 137% since September 2025, indicating a shift in focus towards carbon emissions as a critical performance metric [7][18]. - The chemical industry is anticipated to undergo structural changes, with high carbon intensity sectors facing supply constraints, while low-carbon leaders are expected to benefit from the transition [8][30]. Summary by Sections 1. "14th Five-Year Plan": Carbon Peak Closing Battle - Local carbon assessments may treat carbon emissions as an equally important rigid constraint [15]. - High carbon intensity sectors such as ammonia fertilizer, coal chemical, and chlorine-alkali are likely to face capacity constraints first [29][30]. 2. Petrochemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - The petrochemical sector is expected to undergo a transformation driven by the "dual carbon" goals, with a focus on optimizing supply and demand structures [38]. - Refining sector dynamics are shifting towards improved supply-demand balance due to stringent approval processes for new projects and the elimination of high-energy-consuming capacities [38]. 3. Basic Chemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - Coal chemical industry is projected to stabilize supply under carbon limits, driving quality improvements in the sector [3.1]. - Carbon fiber and fluorochemical sectors are expected to benefit from process optimization and green transitions [3.2][3.3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of leading companies: 1. Integrated leaders in the oil chemical sector with scale and efficiency advantages [8]. 2. Coal chemical leaders with advanced processes and low emissions [8]. 3. High-quality firms in fluorochemical and carbon fiber sectors that align with "dual carbon" goals [8].

卫星化学 20260129 摘要 卫星化学拥有完善的碳三和碳二产业链，并通过与 ET 能源公司合资， 确保了乙烷等原材料的稳定供应和成本优势，为公司发展奠定基础。 全球高端聚乙烯市场面临供给收缩，国内油头或煤头制备审批难度大， 反内卷政策或利好石化行业，中国高端聚乙烯自给率仅 65%，存在结构 性紧缺。 卫星化学通过布局阿尔法-烯综合利用项目，包括 10 万吨阿尔法-烯和 90 万吨聚乙烯装置，预计完全投产后可实现超过 330 亿元收入，显著 提升盈利能力。 卫星化学未来发展重点是完善碳三和碳二产业链，积极推进阿尔法-烯综 合利用项目，总投资 200 多亿元，并向下游扩展至 POE 等产品。 卫星化学研发投入持续增长，2024 年达 17.5 亿元，同比增长 7.69%，毛利率和净利率持续上升，资产负债率保持健康水平，经营现 金流增加，支持长期稳定发展。 全球清洁能源需求增加，卫星化学凭借低碳排放路径和副产氢气，在清 洁能源领域具备竞争优势，加大研发投入，巩固市场地位。 国内高端聚乙烯和 POE 产品高度依赖进口，茂金属聚乙烯自给率不到 20%，卫星化学进行三期、四期布局旨在提高国产化率，POE 产业链经 济 ...

1月28日，化工板块攻势不减。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘短暂震荡后迅速拉 升，而后持续高位震荡，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到3.2%，截至收盘，涨2.48%，收盘价续创2022年7 月以来新高。值得注意的是，化工ETF（516020）午后频现溢价交易，收盘溢价率更是高达0.42%，反 映买盘资金较为强势。 成份股方面，纯碱、氨纶、氮肥等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至收盘，和邦生物、浙江龙盛双双涨停， 卫星化学、华峰化学飙涨超8%，鲁西化工、桐昆股份、宝丰能源等亦涨幅居前。 消息面上，近日，工业和信息化部、国家发改委等五部门联合印发《关于开展零碳工厂建设工作的指导 意见》。自2026年起，遴选一批零碳工厂，做好标杆引领；到2027年，在汽车、锂电池、光伏、电子电 器、轻工、机械、算力设施等行业领域，培育建设一批零碳工厂；到2030年，逐步扩展至钢铁、有色金 属、石化化工、建材、纺织等行业领域，探索传统高载能产业脱碳新路径。 方正证券指出，对化企而言，一方面未来部分高能耗或高碳排放子行业的供给侧增量存量均有政策约 束，另一方面，随着碳排放权交易市场的扩围，碳配额制度有望重塑部分行业成本曲线，加速 ...

1月28日，A股三大指数表现分化，沪指再次走出"W"态势收涨0.27%，创业板指跌0.57%。行情逻辑围绕"涨价"主线展开，资源品全线走强，有色领涨两 市。全市场超3600只个股下跌，两市成交额2.97万亿元。 | 序号 代码 | | 名称 | 现价 | | 涨跌 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 159876 主 | 有色ETF华宝 | 1.324 c | 0.086 | 695% | | 2 | 159220 | 跨 港股通红利低波ETF华宝 T+0 | 0.636 c | 0.017 | 2.75% | | 3 | 516020 | 主 化工ETF | 0.993 c | 0.024 | 2.48% | | 4 | 520560 | 跨 香港大盘30ETF T+0 | 0.968 c | 0.022 | 2.33% | | 5 | 159707 | 行 地产ETF | 0.644 c | 0.013 | 2.06% | | 6 | 562080 | 策 300现金流ETF | 0.650 c | 0.013 | 2.04% | | 7 ...

证券之星消息，1月28日化学原料板块较上一交易日上涨3.58%，卫星化学领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4151.24，上涨0.27%。深证成指报收于14342.9，上涨0.09%。化学原料板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日化学原料板块主力资金净流入8.7亿元，游资资金净流出1.98亿元，散户资金净 流出6.73亿元。化学原料板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600989 | 宝丰能源 | 2.23 亿 | 8.37% | 4519.31万 | 1.70% | -2.68 Z | -10.07% | | 002648 | 卫星化学 | 1.26亿 | 4.06% | -8883.84万 | -2.87% | -3696.78万 | -1.19% | | 002601 | 龙佰隼团 | 8740.47万 | 8.34% | -5709.75万 | -5.45% | - -3 ...

来源：沪深交易所等，截至2026.1.28。 化工板块午后继续上攻！反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）盘中场内价格一度涨超3%，截 至发稿，涨2.48%。 成份股方面，和邦生物、浙江龙盛双双涨停，卫星化学大涨超9%，华峰化学、桐昆股份、鲁西化工等 亦涨幅居前。 | | | 分时 8日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 夏多 | | | | | | | | 化工ETF O | | | | 516020 | | | F9 盘机盘版 盘加 九转 图线 工具 @ D > | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1,000 | | | | 516020RZ.ETF1 13:49 於 0.993 股股 0.024(2.48%) J.90 ...