行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 02 日 基本面持续改善，继续推荐商业航 天、两机等板块 看好 ——国防军工行业周报（2026 年第 9 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 4.77%，中证军工龙头指数上涨 3.56%，同期上证综指上 涨 1.98%，沪深 300 上涨 1.08%，创业板指上涨 1.05%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创业 板指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑赢军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周 国防军工板块 4.77%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 9 位。2、从我们构建的 军工集团指数变化来看，上周中证民参军涨跌幅排名靠前，平均涨幅为 6.63%。3、从 个股表现来看 ...

广东宏大 20260227 摘要 军工行业呈现三大投资主线：先进战机出口带动高端武器装备出海，军 转民领域关注商业航天、商用大飞机和 AI 产业链的结构性机会。 商业航天板块受益于"航天强国"战略和全国两会预期，国产链标的如 航天发展、航天电子等表现突出，市场关注后续政策催化。 国产大飞机 C919 及国产航空发动机"长江 1,000"是商用大飞机方向的 核心，3 月份的事件催化值得关注，相关标的包括航发动力、中航西飞 等。 AIDC 燃机行情受北美缺电和国内燃气轮机事件驱动，航发动力涨停带 动板块走强，应流股份、万泽股份等个股表现突出。 航空发动机与燃气轮机技术同源，均以核心机为关键，国内"两机专 项"延续核心机系列化衍生路线，形成产业共振。 广东宏大防务板块定位为第二成长曲线，围绕先进弹药装备形成全产业 链布局，未来订单、收入与利润释放值得关注。 HD-1 超音速巡航导弹对标布拉莫斯，在 2025 年印巴冲突后，巴基斯 坦对同类导弹需求抬升，为 HD-1 海外拓展提供机会。 Q&A 当前军工投研框架如何划分，三条主线分别对应哪些产业方向与核心关注点？ 当前军工投研框架可归纳为三条主线：第一条为"内装"，聚 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is expected to drive up prices for methanol, ethylene glycol, and urea, with a comprehensive price increase anticipated for chemical products after the holiday [4]. - The report highlights the impact of differentiated electricity pricing in Shaanxi, which may accelerate the exit of outdated production capacities and improve industry dynamics [4]. - The overall capital expenditure in the chemical sector is at its peak, with low inventory levels in the supply chain, suggesting a favorable environment for price increases as downstream production resumes post-holiday [4]. Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgment indicates that oil prices are expected to remain in a relatively loose range, with Brent crude projected between $60 and $75 per barrel due to delayed OPEC+ production increases and stable demand recovery [5]. - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level in the medium to long term, while natural gas costs may decrease as the US accelerates its export facility construction [5]. - The report notes that the January PPI for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year but increased by 0.4% month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector [7]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on four main areas for investment: 1. Textile and apparel chain, benefiting from high demand growth and improved supply dynamics [4]. 2. Agricultural chemicals, with stable fertilizer demand and increasing transgenic penetration supporting long-term pesticide demand [4]. 3. Export-related chemical products, as overseas inventories are at historical lows and interest rates are expected to decline [4]. 4. "Anti-involution" policies leading to accelerated clearance of outdated capacities in various sectors [4]. Key Material Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, as well as in lithium battery and fluorine materials [4].

（来源：淘金ETF） 1. 中国卫通（601698） 作为卫星通信运营国家队，手握稀缺轨位与频谱资源，是商业航天从上天到变现的关键枢纽。在低轨星 座加速组网、手机直连卫星需求爆发的背景下，卫星通信运营与数据服务成为核心增长极。凭借完整地 面站网络与高通量卫星资源，深度绑定国家星网工程，承接卫星互联网、应急通信、偏远地区覆盖等核 心订单，现金流稳定且可持续。随着商业航天规模化落地，卫星运维、数据分发、行业应用需求持续释 放，叠加政策对卫星互联网的战略支持，长期成长逻辑清晰。在空天地一体化建设浪潮中，凭借资源壁 垒与运营优势，成为商业航天运营端最具确定性的核心标的，业绩与估值具备向上空间。 2. 中国卫星（600118） 深耕卫星研制与应用全产业链，覆盖通信、导航、遥感等多领域卫星制造，是商业航天卫星制造端的核 心力量。随着低轨星座建设进入高峰期，微小卫星批量发射需求激增，卫星总装与核心部件配套迎来爆 发式增长。依托航天科技集团技术与资源优势，在卫星平台、载荷研发、总装测试等环节具备深厚积 累，深度参与国家重大航天工程与商业卫星项目。同时积极布局卫星应用服务，构建"制造+运营+数 据"闭环，拓展行业应用场景。在商 ...

经济观察网广东宏大（002683）股价异动分析。近期股价波动较为剧烈，资金面存在分歧，技术面短期 动能偏弱，同时公司基本面呈现业绩分化。 资金面与技术面从技术指标看，2月13日MACD差离值为0.617，信号线为0.794，柱状图-0.353，显示短 期动能偏弱。布林带指标显示上轨54.01元，中轨50.09元，下轨46.17元，当前股价接近中轨位置。KDJ 指标中K线64.958，D线53.457，J线87.961，处于相对高位区间。量比指标1.07，显示成交活跃度与近期 平均水平基本持平。 业绩经营情况根据国海证券研报，广东宏大2025年前三季度营业收入145.52亿元，同比增长55.92%，但 归母净利润仅增长0.54%。第三季度单季营收增长44.14%，净利润却下降36.93%，主要受新增并购贷款 和汇兑损失导致财务费用激增影响。太平洋证券指出，公司通过收购秘鲁炸药厂及南部永生，工业炸药 产能突破72.55万吨，但矿服板块毛利率下滑对整体盈利形成拖累。 综上，广东宏大股价异动是产能注入预期、资金面分歧、技术面调整与基本面业绩分化共同作用的结 果。投资者需关注公司民爆资产整合进展、军工转型效果及财务费用 ...

Core Insights - The chemical industry is at the beginning of a new prosperity cycle globally, with Chinese chemical companies showing stronger profit foundations and elasticity due to past expansions and capital expenditures [5][11][29] - Focus on cyclical chemical products, particularly those with resource attributes and potential in the real estate chain [4][5] - The demand from major economies like China and the US is expected to improve, with China's GDP projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, growing at 5.0% year-on-year [5][22] Group 1: Global and Domestic Chemical Landscape - The global chemical landscape is improving, with China's chemical sector becoming more resilient [9][12] - China's share of the global chemical market has significantly increased from 13% in 2004 to 47% in 2024, indicating its growing importance in the global chemical industry [14][29] - The capital expenditure in the global chemical sector has paused, with many overseas chemical companies reducing production, which may benefit Chinese companies [14][16] Group 2: Resource Attributes in Chemical Products - Three main resource directions are emphasized: mineral resources (like phosphate and potash), indicator resources (such as pesticides and refrigerants), and channel resources (like compound fertilizers) [5][33] - China's phosphate reserves rank second globally, with a steady increase in demand driven by both traditional fertilizer needs and emerging sectors like lithium iron phosphate for batteries [33][36] - The supply of fertilizers is expected to contract in 2025, with production of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate projected to decrease by 6.73% and 6.86% respectively [39] Group 3: Real Estate Chain Chemical Products - The market currently has low expectations for the recovery of demand in the real estate chain, but there is potential for significant improvement due to government stimulus policies [5][22] - The supply concentration of chemical products related to the real estate chain is gradually increasing, which may lead to faster and easier supply-demand improvements [5] Group 4: New Materials and Domestic Substitution - The report highlights the importance of domestic substitution and the development of new materials in line with China's strategic plans for emerging industries [7][8] - Key areas of focus include lubricating oil additives, semiconductor materials, and bio-based materials [7] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies for investment include Hualu Chemical, Xin Fengming, Yuntianhua, and others, focusing on those with strong market positions and innovative capabilities [7][8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The military trade market is experiencing long-term demand growth due to increased regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions, which are expected to persist over the next 5-10 years [1][4] - Current geopolitical conflicts include the India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, Iran, and Russia-Ukraine situations, as well as recent events in Venezuela, indicating unresolved core issues and ongoing tensions [5] Core Insights and Arguments - The absence of a "world police" due to the U.S. focusing on domestic issues under the Trump 2.0 era is leading to heightened insecurity and more regional conflicts, thus driving military trade demand [3][11] - Europe faces ongoing threats from Russia, necessitating increased military spending and autonomy [5] - In the Middle East, the failure of U.S.-Iran negotiations keeps tensions high, while countries like Japan are significantly increasing military budgets [5] - The U.S. is shifting its strategic focus towards South America, making it a new focal point for military trade [5] China's Military Trade Developments - China has made progress in international military trade orders, with potential agreements emerging from events like the Saudi Housing Exhibition [6] - Reports indicate that China has signed procurement agreements with at least six countries, including Pakistan's expected purchase of the HD-1 hypersonic missile and air defense systems [7] - Companies such as Guorui Technology and Gaode Infrared have reported significant increases in related transactions, reflecting a rise in new orders [7] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with clear military trade order expectations, such as Guangdong Hongda, Hongdu Aviation, Gaode Infrared, Inner Mongolia First Machinery, and AVIC Chengfei [9] - Companies involved in dual-use technologies, like Ruichuang Weina, Beihua Co., Optoelectronics Co., and Zhongrun Optics, are also highlighted for their strong performance [9] - Strategic recommendations include companies like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, Guorui Technology, Aerospace Nanhua, and AVIC Xifei, which have long-term growth potential [9] Strategic Military Trade Orders - The cycle for strategic military trade orders is lengthy, with significant performance improvements in listed companies expected over time [10] - Long-term investment strategies should consider the gradual replacement of Russian military trade by Chinese products, particularly high-end aircraft and air defense missiles [10] U.S. Military Strategy Characteristics - The Trump 2.0 era is characterized by increased military spending, reaching historical highs, and a focus on asymmetric warfare, including the establishment of a Space Force [12] - The U.S. is exhibiting a trend of strategic withdrawal, with a reduction in large-scale wars but an increase in regional conflicts [12] Middle East Dynamics - The Middle East is characterized by four power centers: Israel, Iran, Turkey, and Arab states, forming three main camps: anti-U.S., pro-U.S., and reformist [13] - Wealthy Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Algeria have significant military budgets and procurement needs, with Egypt also being a key military purchaser [14] Potential Military Trade Demand - Iran, as a central figure in the anti-U.S. camp, faces unresolved core issues with the U.S., while Turkey serves as a major hub for military equipment exports [15] - Potential new military trade demand in the Middle East is expected to focus on complete systems, while Europe will lean towards midstream needs like electronic components and materials [15]

深证国企ESGR（470055）指数十大成份股详情如下： 资金流向方面，深证国企ESGR（470055）指数成份股当日主力资金净流出合计8.86亿元，游资资金净 流入合计4.14亿元，散户资金净流入合计4.72亿元。成份股资金流向详情见下表： 证券之星消息，2月10日，深证国企ESGR（470055）指数报收于1743.47点，跌0.06%，成交322.75亿 元，换手率1.22%。当日该指数成份股中，上涨的有20家，广东宏大以3.72%的涨幅领涨，下跌的有28 家，中来股份以6.73%的跌幅领跌。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Belt and Road ETF managed by E Fund, which experienced a decline of 1.95% to 1.709 yuan as of the midday close on February 5, with a trading volume of 4.9066 million yuan [1] - The major holdings of the ETF include companies such as Xiaogoods City, which fell by 0.07%, Goldwind Technology, which dropped by 9.46%, and China Aluminum, which decreased by 6.77% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI State-Owned Enterprises Belt and Road Index, with a return of 74.37% since its inception on November 6, 2019, and a return of 9.89% over the past month [1] Group 2 - The fund is managed by E Fund Management Co., Ltd., with Liu Shurong as the fund manager [1] - The article provides a snapshot of the performance of various stocks within the ETF, indicating mixed results with some stocks like Dong'a Ejiao increasing by 0.20% and others like Nanjing Energy decreasing by 7.89% [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of cautious investment, noting that market risks exist [1]

Group 1 - On February 3, Guangdong Hongda's stock rose by 3.10%, with a trading volume of 416 million yuan [1] - The financing data shows that on the same day, Guangdong Hongda had a financing purchase amount of 39.08 million yuan and a financing repayment of 53.14 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 14.06 million yuan [1] - As of February 3, the total balance of margin trading for Guangdong Hongda was 1.194 billion yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 3.25% of the circulating market value, indicating a high level compared to the past year [1] Group 2 - Guangdong Hongda was established on May 14, 1988, and listed on June 12, 2012, with its main business involving civil explosive products, mining infrastructure stripping, and overall blasting scheme design [2] - The revenue composition of Guangdong Hongda includes open-pit mining (58.54%), industrial explosives (12.43%), underground mining (11.82%), chemical products (10.47%), detonating devices (2.68%), liquefied natural gas (2.39%), defense equipment (0.88%), and others (0.80%) [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Guangdong Hongda achieved an operating income of 14.552 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 653 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.54% [2] Group 3 - Guangdong Hongda has distributed a total of 2.248 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.288 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders of Guangdong Hongda included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the third-largest shareholder, holding 11.6684 million shares as a new shareholder [3] - Other notable shareholders include Guangfa Small Cap Growth Mixed Fund, which increased its holdings by 643,200 shares, and Guangfa Value Core Mixed Fund, which is also a new shareholder [3]