Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in the pig farming and pet food industries, highlighting potential growth opportunities and ongoing challenges in supply and pricing [2][4][6]. Pig Farming - The pig farming sector is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with the average price of live pigs at 11.60 CNY/kg as of November 20, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.11% [29][30]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased, with a reported month-on-month decline of 0.77% in October, indicating ongoing supply pressures [20][6]. - Profitability remains a concern, with losses reported at -135.90 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and -234.63 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of November 21 [33][38]. Poultry Farming - The poultry sector is seeing a rise in white chicken prices, with an average price of 7.15 CNY/kg as of November 21, up 0.42% week-on-week [39][36]. - The outbreak of avian influenza in overseas markets is creating uncertainty in the supply chain, which may benefit the white feather chicken industry in the long term [36][37]. Animal Health - The animal health industry is expected to rebound as demand for biological products increases, driven by a recovery in livestock profitability and inventory levels [44]. - Recent developments in vaccine research, particularly for African swine fever, are anticipated to stimulate interest in the sector [44]. Seed Industry - The prices of key agricultural commodities such as wheat and corn have shown slight increases, with wheat averaging 2505 CNY/ton and corn at 2280 CNY/ton as of November 21 [47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing food security and promoting the adoption of biotechnology in the seed industry [47]. Pet Industry - The pet food market is experiencing robust growth in domestic sales, with e-commerce sales up 19% year-on-year in October [55]. - Notable performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival indicates a strong market presence for domestic brands, with significant sales increases reported for several companies [56]. - Export figures for pet food show a decline, with October exports at 772 million CNY, down 15.9% year-on-year, but the impact of tariff disruptions is expected to be limited [54][52].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for pork is expected to support prices as the year-end peak season approaches, despite a decline in prices due to overproduction and accelerated culling of sows [3][12] - The suspension of imports of Japanese seafood is beneficial for the domestic aquaculture sector, as it reduces competition and supports local prices [4][18] - The pet industry is experiencing growth driven by consumer upgrades and increased domestic production, with significant market potential projected for the coming years [22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The culling of breeding sows has accelerated, with the national average price of live pigs at 11.62 yuan/kg as of November 21, 2025, down 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.75% year-on-year [11][12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 128.81 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week [11] - Cold weather is expected to boost pork consumption, providing support for prices during the peak season [12] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to accelerated culling of sows. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [22] - The feed sector is benefiting from strong demand, with domestic production expected to improve due to recovery in livestock numbers [22] - The pet market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic brands due to rising consumer preferences and tariff barriers [22] Market Performance (November 17-21) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% and the agricultural index down 3.45% [24] - The fishery sector led gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongshui Fishery (+61.05%) and others [24][30] Price Tracking (November 17-21) - The average price of live pigs was 11.64 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets increased to 19.15 yuan/kg [35] - The price of corn futures rose slightly to 2183.00 yuan/ton, while soybean meal futures decreased to 2427.00 yuan/ton [46][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing decline in pig prices leading to increased losses in breeding, with a focus on accelerated capacity reduction. The supply pressure for fat pigs remains significant, and the seasonal price increase is not materializing, which may further accelerate capacity reduction in the industry [2][3]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with recommendations to focus on leading companies with growth certainty. The core brands of listed companies performed well during the promotional period, and the logic of increasing market share continues to be validated [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the pig breeding industry, suggesting that the downward cycle is nearing its end, with a potential upward turning point expected in 2026. The report also notes that the pet economy remains a core growth area, with expectations for continued market share growth among leading companies [2][3]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 3.4%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 3.8%. The top five gainers included Zhongshui Fishery (61.0%), Quanyin High-Tech (27.4%), and Guolian Aquatic Products (22.5%) [3][10]. Pig Breeding - The report indicates a decline in breeding enthusiasm due to rising costs and high utilization rates of existing facilities. The average selling price of pigs was reported at 11.61 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.43% but a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous week. Losses for self-breeding sow enterprises reached 96.61 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 24.66 yuan [2][3][11]. Pet Food - October data showed a decline in both the export value and volume of pet food from China, with a total export value of 772 million yuan (approximately 109 million USD), reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%. Despite this, the domestic pet food market is viewed as a high-certainty growth area, with strong sales during the "Double Eleven" event [2][3]. Chicken Breeding - The report notes that the prices of white feather broiler chicks and chicken meat have remained stable, with the average selling price of broiler chicks at 3.35 yuan per chick. The supply of white feather chickens is expected to remain ample in 2025, with potential demand recovery in 2026 [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that in Q3 2025, the profitability of listed pig companies has significantly declined due to falling pig prices and rising raw material costs, while the cost variance within the industry remains substantial, leading to an expansion of cost advantages for high-quality pig companies. The overall demand is showing signs of recovery in the later cycle, suggesting a potential increase in pig prices in 2026 due to accelerated sow capacity reduction [1][2]. Group 1: Swine Farming - In Q3 2025, the profitability of 18 listed pig companies dropped to 5.54 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 71% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 38% [2]. - The cost variance in the industry remains significant, with high-quality pig companies further enhancing their cost advantages [2]. - The operational cash flow of listed pig companies continues to improve, while capital expenditures remain low and debt ratios are high [2]. - The report anticipates an acceleration in sow capacity reduction, which may elevate the average pig price in 2026 [2]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, with additional attention on Shennong Group, Dekang Agriculture, Dongrui Co., and COFCO Joycome [2][5]. Group 2: Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken market is expected to see an increase in the import of grandparent stock chickens in 2024, but it will not return to pre-disruption levels until 2025 [3]. - The supply of parent stock chickens is expected to tighten in the second half of 2025, impacting the supply of commercial chickens in 2026 [3]. - The yellow feather chicken sector is experiencing a reduction in parent stock numbers to historically low levels, which may support future price increases [3]. - Recommended companies in poultry farming include San Nong Development for white feather chickens and Lihua Food for yellow feather chickens [3][5]. Group 3: Post-Cycle Demand - The demand for feed in the swine and poultry sectors is gradually recovering, leading to a notable improvement in feed demand [4]. - The demand for aquaculture feed is also expected to rise as the aquaculture sector recovers [4]. - The report forecasts continued demand growth for livestock feed in Q4 2025, while aquaculture feed demand may enter a seasonal decline [4]. - Recommended companies for feed include Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from overseas expansion [4][5]. - In the animal health sector, demand is recovering due to sustained profitability in the downstream farming sector, with major animal health companies expected to see improved profitability [4]. Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and attention on BioStock and Reap Biological [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of identifying and capturing turning points in the agricultural sector in 2026, focusing on core indicators and finding entry points within a relatively reasonable valuation range [1] Group 1: Swine Breeding - The swine breeding sector is expected to benefit from changes in supply and demand, with a continued emphasis on a balanced approach of offense and defense [1] - The investment opportunities in the swine breeding sector arise from changes in production capacity affecting pig price expectations, with a recommendation to focus on major players like Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), as well as smaller companies like Tiankang Biological (002100) and Shennong Group (605296) [1] - Despite a generally pessimistic outlook on pig prices based on current data, there is potential for changes within the industry that could lead to investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Pet Food - The pet food sector is characterized by sustained growth and significant market share expansion potential, with export growth serving as a shield for performance and the development of proprietary brands as a spear for future market share increases [2] - The report suggests that companies in the pet food industry should focus on maintaining or exceeding growth expectations for their proprietary brands while leveraging multi-brand operations [2] - Key companies to watch in the pet food sector include Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891), Guibao Pet (301498), and Petty (300673), with additional attention on Yuanfei Pet (001222) [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective decline in the three major indices, with the agricultural sector showing strong performance in certain stocks, such as Luoniushan, which rose over 7% [1] - The newly launched Tianhong Agricultural ETF (512620) closely tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, covering sectors like breeding and agrochemicals, and includes leading agricultural companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region government announced a plan to modernize agricultural facilities, aiming to renovate 30,000 acres and add 20,000 acres of modern agricultural production by the end of 2028 [1] Group 2 - Zhongjin Company highlighted that policy support and technological innovation will be key drivers for the future development of the planting industry chain, with a positive outlook on investment opportunities in leading agricultural enterprises [2] - The company believes that under the paradigm shift and the trend of stronger players becoming stronger, leading enterprises possess greater development potential [2]

融资方面，牧原股份当日融资买入7070.12万元。当前融资余额50.21亿元，占流通市值的1.91%，融资 余额低于近一年30%分位水平，处于低位。 融券方面，牧原股份11月20日融券偿还4.01万股，融券卖出5000.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 24.11万元；融券余量40.97万股，融券余额1975.64万元，超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 资料显示，牧原食品股份有限公司位于河南省南阳市卧龙区龙升工业园区,香港铜锣湾希慎道33号利园1 期19楼1920室，成立日期2000年7月13日，上市日期2014年1月28日，公司主营业务涉及生猪的养殖销 售、生猪屠宰。主营业务收入构成为：生猪98.68%，屠宰、肉食产品25.30%，饲料原料1.63%，其他 0.49%。 11月20日，牧原股份跌0.47%，成交额8.24亿元。两融数据显示，当日牧原股份获融资买入额7070.12万 元，融资偿还8365.94万元，融资净买入-1295.83万元。截至11月20日，牧原股份融资融券余额合计 50.41亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，牧原股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流 ...

Market Overview - The aquaculture sector declined by 0.69% on November 20, with Yike Food leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the aquaculture sector included: - Luoniushan (000735) with a closing price of 8.70, up 7.27% on a trading volume of 1.32 million shares and a turnover of 1.134 billion [1] - Fucheng Co. (600965) closed at 6.06, up 3.41% with a trading volume of 654,700 shares and a turnover of 401 million [1] - Huaying Agriculture (002321) closed at 3.60, up 2.56% with a trading volume of 3.57 million shares and a turnover of 1.309 billion [1] - Major decliners included: - Yike Food (301116) closed at 13.29, down 5.41% with a trading volume of 420,100 shares and a turnover of 549 million [2] - ST Tianshan (300313) closed at 9.40, down 5.24% with a trading volume of 68,000 shares and a turnover of 67 million [2] - Xiangjia Co. (002982) closed at 14.91, down 3.12% with a trading volume of 54,400 shares and a turnover of 81.7 million [2] Capital Flow - The aquaculture sector experienced a net outflow of 47.59 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 60.96 million [2] - Conversely, speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 109 million [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Luoniushan (000735) had a net inflow of 16.6 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 1.48 million [3] - Fucheng Co. (600965) experienced a net inflow of 57.81 million from institutional investors, with a significant outflow of 54.22 million from retail investors [3] - Yike Food (301116) had a net outflow of 17.90 million from institutional investors [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price remains weak, and the logic of destocking may gradually strengthen. The price of pigs is currently at 11.85 yuan/kg, with the industry facing losses [3][18] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation. The report anticipates that under the influence of capacity control policies, pig prices may stop falling and rebound earlier than expected [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality development in the industry, with a clear direction for capacity control policies. Companies that lead in cost and connect with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine sector is experiencing fluctuations, with DeKang Agriculture leading the gains at +9% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, and futures prices are rising, but the stock market has not reacted [3][18] - The report emphasizes the need for solution-oriented enterprises as the industry policy shifts towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [4][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector continues to face a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the price of broiler chickens at 3.50 yuan/kg and chick prices at 3.60 yuan each. The report suggests that integrated enterprises may increase their market share due to losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [5][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the domestic industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization. The company is expected to achieve growth beyond expectations [6][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a strong concentration of leading brands, with the top five brands remaining stable. The report notes that the competition among leading brands is intensifying, leading to potential pressure on profit margins, but sales growth remains high [9][21] - The report predicts that the market concentration will increase, with the CR5 expected to reach nearly 40% in the next five years [11][23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's November supply and demand report did not exceed expectations, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices. The report indicates that domestic soybean inventories are high, and the supply remains sufficient [13][25] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, with agricultural product processing performing the best at +6.40% [26]

Group 1 - The three major indices collectively rose, with the agriculture sector showing significant gains, as evidenced by the 0.73% increase in the China Securities Agriculture Index [1] - A new agriculture-focused ETF, Tianhong (512620), is set to launch on November 21, tracking the China Securities Agriculture Index and covering sectors such as breeding and agrochemicals, featuring leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on November 13 to promote the revitalization of the seed industry, emphasizing the need for high-quality development and self-sufficiency in seed technology [1] Group 2 - Guosheng Securities highlights that the revitalization of the seed industry is crucial for advancing new agricultural productivity, with significant breakthroughs in biotechnology expected to reshape the industry landscape [2] - Guoxin Securities anticipates that by 2026, leading companies in the pig and poultry breeding chains will strengthen, shifting investment focus from capital expenditure to cash flow generation [2] - The official capacity regulation is expected to enhance cash flow for leading enterprises in the pig industry, while the poultry sector is projected to see limited supply fluctuations, benefiting from demand recovery [2]