2025 年 06 月 23 日 开源晨会 0623 ——晨会纪要 | 沪深300 | 及创业板指数近1年走势 | | | 吴梦迪（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | | 创业板指 | | wumengdi@kysec.cn | | 64% | | | | 证书编号：S0790521070001 | | 48% | | | | 观点精粹 | | 32% | | | | 总量视角 | | 16% | | | | | | 0% | | | | 【宏观经济】科技与民生类支出提速——5 月财政数据点评-20250620 | | -16% | | | | 【策略】箱体震荡的突破契机，及当下的配置思路——投资策略周报-20250621 | | 2024-06 | 2024-10 | 2025-02 | | 【金融工程】稀土产业板块的资金行为监测——金融工程定期-20250620 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | | | | | | | | 行业公司 | | 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | | | | 【商贸零售】618 电商高质增长，强品牌龙头及新锐功效品牌突围—— ...

农林牧渔 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 (8621)23297818× zhujy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 06 月 22 日 关注宠物食品 618 销售表现，降重出栏延 续猪价偏强震荡 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.6.16-2025.6.22） 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 3.1%，沪深 300 下跌 0.5%。个股涨幅前五名：邦基科技（24.7%）、晨光生物 （13.4%）、ST 天山（4.2%）、ST 景谷（3.8%）、中牧股份（2.6%），跌幅前五名：安德利（-18.7%）、中宠股 份（-13.4%）、晓鸣股份（-11.3%）、辉隆股份（-10.7%）、佩蒂股份（-10.0%）。投资分析意见：猪价预 ...

25 年"618"结束，宠物经济持续兑现高景气。根据京东"618"战报，超400 个宠物品牌商家销售额同比增 长超100%，宠物成交用户同比增长32%、新晋养宠用户同比增长39%。宠食方面，基于各品牌销售额表 现，各宠食品类排名如下：（1）猫干粮TOP10：皇家、麦富迪、网易严选、渴望、蓝氏、天然百利、 爱肯拿、弗列加特、诚实一口、冠能；（2）狗干粮TOP10：皇家、麦富迪、伯纳天纯、疯狂小狗、爱 肯拿、渴望、网易严选、蓝氏、冠能、凯锐思；（3）猫零食/湿粮TOP5：麦富迪、蓝氏、顽皮、弗列 加特、网易严选；（4）狗零食/湿粮TOP5：麦富迪、爵宴、疯狂小狗、ZEAL、顽皮。 本周猪价上涨。根据博亚和讯，6 月20 日全国外三元生猪均价为14.22 元/kg，周环比上涨1.43%，15 公 斤仔猪均价31.85 元/公斤，周环比下跌3.16%。根据涌益咨询数据，本周商品猪出栏均重为128.28kg， 周环比下跌0.54kg，全国冻品库容率为14.04%，环比上升0.15pct。库存去化顺畅，均重保持快速下降。 猪价跌破14 元/公斤后，多省二次育肥进场情绪提升，市场流通猪源减少，屠宰企业采购有一定难度， 支撑 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 22 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《6 月 USDA 农产品报告上调全球玉 米、水稻、小麦产量，维持全球大豆 产 量 预 期 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》- 2025.6.17 《CPI 连续 4 月同比下行，政策多维 消费升级叠加关税壁垒，宠物板块国货崛起逻辑持续强化。推荐：乖宝宠物、 中宠股份、佩蒂股份。 发力提振 2025H2 猪价—行业周报》- 2025.6.15 《5 月大猪出栏释放，2025H2 猪价不 悲观—行业点评报告》-2025.6.12 10 供给收缩已至支撑猪价上行，618 宠物食品龙头表 现亮眼 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 ...

农林牧渔行业 超配（维持） 农林牧渔行业双周报（2025/6/6-2025/6/19） 行 业 能繁母猪有望持续去化 2025 年 6 月 20 日 投资要点： 风险提示：疫病大规模爆发，价格下行，自然灾害，市场竞争加剧等。 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 所 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn SW农林牧渔行业跑输沪深300指数。2025年6月6日—2025年6月19日，SW 农林牧渔行业下跌1.11%，跑输同期沪深300指数约0.22个百分点；细分板 块中，仅养殖业录得正收益，上涨1.51%；种植业、动物保健、农产品加 工、渔业和饲料均录得负收益，分别下跌2.15%、2.77%、3.51%、4.15%和 4.92%。估值方面，截至2025年6月19日，SW农林牧渔行业指数整体PB（整 体法，最新报告期，剔除负值）约2.58倍，近两周先回升后回落。目前行 业估值处于行业2006年以来的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The second listing of Muyuan Foods on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raises questions about the company's urgent need for capital, with a projected funding gap exceeding 60 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024 [1][2]. Financial Situation - The company's cash ratio for 2024 is only 0.2, indicating tight liquidity [2]. - As of the end of the first quarter, the company has interest-bearing debt exceeding 80 billion yuan, with short-term debt reaching 62.17 billion yuan, while cash on hand is only 23.566 billion yuan, resulting in a short-term debt funding gap of nearly 40 billion yuan [2]. - The minimum cash reserve required for daily operations is estimated at 20.2 billion yuan, leading to a funding gap of over 7 billion yuan when considering restricted cash [3][4]. Dividend Distribution - In 2024, Muyuan Foods plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 7.588 billion yuan, which is 45.38% of its net profit [5][7]. - The actual controller of the company will receive over 4 billion yuan from the cash dividends [8]. - The company has revised its dividend policy to distribute at least 40% of its distributable profits in cash from 2024 to 2026 [7]. Operational Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 137.947 billion yuan, a 24.43% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 17.881 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [5]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend, with revenue of 36.061 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.26%, and a net profit of 4.491 billion yuan, up 288.79% [5]. Market Position and Competition - Muyuan Foods has become the world's largest pig farming enterprise, with a market share increasing from 2.6% in 2021 to 5.6% in 2024 [9]. - The company's pig output increased from 6.12 million heads in 2022 to 7.16 million heads in 2024 [9]. - However, the cost advantage of Muyuan Foods appears to be narrowing as competitors like Wens Foodstuffs have improved their cost management [10]. Industry Trends - The pig price has recently dropped below the industry breakeven point, with prices reported at 14.24 yuan per kilogram, down 24.13% year-on-year [12]. - The number of breeding sows, which influences supply, remains above the normal level, indicating potential challenges for price recovery [13][14].

+0.03(+0.54%) -0.08(-0.91%) +0.08(+1.96%) 保险 中国太保 中国平安 中国人保 011 3767.88亿市值 3403.68亿市值 9968.28亿市值 7.95亿成交额 46.06亿成交额 6.95亿成交额 35.38 54.74 8.52 +0.51(+1.46%) +1.54(+2.89%) +0.14(+1.67%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 五粮液 山内对酒 17946.80亿市值 2237.90亿市值 4640.85亿市值 49.91亿成交额 21.95亿成交额 35.36亿成交额 119.56 1428.66 183.44 +2.66(+0.19%) +6.84(+3.87%) +2.28(+1.94%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2279.70亿市值 3102.99亿市值 2396.08亿市值 14.35亿成交额 21.38亿成交额 12.10亿成交额 426.77 573.97 133.50 +3.21(+0.76%) -8.11(-1.39%) -0.65(-0.48%) 汽车整车 铁路公路 长城汽车 比亚迪 京沪高铁 1793. ...

金十图示：2025年06月20日（周五）富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览：银行、保险、酿酒全面反弹，电力板块继续回 调 0.00(0.00%) +0.03(+0.54%) +0.06(+1.47%) 保险 中国太保 中国人保 中国平安 081 3785.57亿市值 3420.99亿市值 9948.25亿市值 4.88亿成交额 24.23亿成交额 3.99亿成交额 35.56 8.56 54.63 +0.69(+1.98%) +1.43(+2.69%) +0.18(+2.15%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 五粮液 山内流酒 18078.70亿市值 2253.88亿市值 4637.36亿市值 27.96亿成交额 15.85亿成交额 20.97亿成交额 1439.16 119.47 184.75 +2.19(+1.87%) +13.16(+0.92%) +8.15(+4.61%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2267.52亿市值 2408.56亿市值 3114.15亿市值 7.87亿成交额 14.31亿成交额 6.92亿成交额 424.49 576.96 133.98 +0.93(+0.2 ...

截至2025年6月20日 10:18，中证主要消费指数(000932)强势上涨1.02%，成分股燕京啤酒(000729)上涨4.72%，古井贡酒(000596)上涨4.11%，山西汾酒 (600809)上涨3.48%，泸州老窖(000568)，今世缘(603369)等个股跟涨。主要消费ETF(159672)上涨1.07%，最新价报0.75元。 浙商证券认为近期的各项政策对白酒消费或造成阶段性影响，且短期对白酒消费的情绪面或构成冲击，因此预计此前期待的二季度恢复或放缓，二季度白酒 消费或仍承压，板块仍在筑底阶段。但由于自2016年以来白酒主要消费场景已从政务消费转向商务消费，我们预计整体影响幅度或有限。在当前市场对于白 酒行业调整形成共识的背景下，位置重于择时，建议找寻合适位置对白酒板块做中期配置布局，龙头个股优先。 从收益能力看，截至2025年6月19日，主要消费ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为24.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为5.70%，上涨月份平均收 益率为4.87%。截至2025年6月19日，主要消费ETF近3个月超越基准年化收益为2.63%。 回撤方面，截至2025年6月19日，主要消 ...

Group 1: Swine Industry - The supply pressure for swine in 2025 is expected to be significant, with the breeding sow inventory projected to peak at 40.8 million heads in November 2024 before gradually declining [11][14] - The average weight of swine at market is increasing, with the industry average reaching 130 kg as of May 2023, up from 126 kg in the previous year, indicating a trend towards heavier market weights [11] - Recommendations for investment include companies such as Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuffs, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and price recovery [18] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The white feather chicken supply is anticipated to remain robust, with breeding stock levels expected to reach historical highs, ensuring sufficient capacity for 2025-2026 [25] - Enhancing consumer demand for white feather chicken is crucial, with a focus on developing new consumption scenarios such as frozen foods and prepared dishes [35] - The yellow feather chicken sector is currently facing significant losses, with cost control being a critical factor for profitability, particularly for companies like Lihua Agricultural [36][39] Group 3: Feed Industry - The demand for pig feed is expected to gradually improve in 2025, driven by the recovery of breeding sow inventory and favorable profit margins in the breeding sector [42] - Companies like Bangji Technology and Hefeng Co. are highlighted as key players in the pig feed market, with potential for profitability recovery [42] Group 4: Animal Health Industry - The traditional animal health market is recovering slowly, with increased demand for vaccines and medications as breeding enterprises return to profitability [56] - The pet healthcare market is emerging as a new growth area, with domestic brands expected to gain market share as consumer awareness increases [62] Group 5: Seed Industry - The traditional seed market is facing intense competition, with oversupply leading to price declines and a potential shakeout of smaller companies [72] - The focus on genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, with significant growth opportunities for leading companies in this space, such as Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [77]