国海证券研报指出，牧原股份2025年前三季度实现归母净利润147.79亿元，同比增长41.01%；其中 2025Q3实现归母净利润42.49亿元，同比下降55.98%。分业务看，在生猪养殖业务方面，2025年1-9月， 公司销售商品猪5732.3万头，同比增长27.0%。公司积极响应国家产能调控的号召，三季度末已将能繁 母猪存栏降至330.5万头。年初至今，虽然饲料价格有小幅上涨，但由于公司生产成绩的持续改善与管 理水平的不断提升，生猪养殖完全成本仍呈现逐月下降的趋势，9月已降至11.6元/kg，较1月下降1.5 元/kg，成本下降均来源于生产成绩改善与期间费用摊销下降。在屠宰肉食业务方面，2025年1-9月，公 司共计屠宰生猪1916万头，同比增长140%，产能利用率为88%。公司屠宰量逐步提升，屠宰肉食业务 在第三季度实现了单季度的盈利。公司成本在12元/kg以下的场线出栏量占比超80%，在11元/kg以下的 占比在25%左右，最优秀的场线成本可以做到10.5元/kg。看好公司后续成本管控和长期发展，维持"买 入"评级。 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 11 月 04 日 牧原股份（002714.SZ） 养殖成本继续领先，屠宰业务实现扭亏 消费品/农林牧渔 25Q3，公司养殖成本继续改善，头均盈利较行业平均水平进一步扩大，现金流 改善背景下，公司资产负债率稳步下行。行业亏损 & 政策调控产能双管齐下， 预计母猪产能去化提速，或进一步抬升 26 年猪价中枢，公司凭借低成本优势有 望充分受益。维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 110861 | 137947 | 121252 | 127808 | 140646 | | 同比增长 | -11% | 24% | -12% | 5% | 10% | | 营业利润(百万元) | (3732) | 20011 | 19008 | 24589 | 28718 | | 同比增长 | -125% | -636% | -5% | 29% | 17% | | 归母净利润(百万元) ...

Group 1: China Petroleum - In Q3 2025, the company reported a 14% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, demonstrating resilience in the oil and gas sector [4][5] - The company achieved a total revenue of 21,693 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, with a net profit of 1,263 billion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year [4][5] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are budgeted at 262.2 billion yuan, focusing on exploration and development in key basins and upgrading refining and chemical projects [6][7] Group 2: Shanghai Film - The company reported a revenue of 361 million yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 101.6%, with a net profit of 86 million yuan, up 123.51% year-on-year [10][11] - The success of the film "Wang Wang Mountain Little Monster" significantly contributed to the revenue growth, with a box office exceeding 1.7 billion yuan [11][13] - The company is actively developing its IP business, with multiple upcoming projects expected to enhance future growth [11][13] Group 3: Foton Motor - Foton Motor's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 45.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, with a net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, up 157.5% year-on-year [15][16] - The company achieved a market share of 12.6% in heavy truck wholesale, the highest in 10 years, with significant growth in both domestic and export sales [16][17] - The annualized ROE improved to the highest level since 2013, reflecting enhanced profitability and cash flow quality [18][19] Group 4: Bojun Technology - Bojun Technology reported a revenue of 4.075 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.36%, with a net profit of 627 million yuan, up 70.47% year-on-year [20][21] - The company is expanding its production capacity and has established multiple subsidiaries across key regions, enhancing its operational efficiency [22][23] - The human-robot business is steadily advancing, with ongoing collaborations in intelligent robotics [22][23] Group 5: Dingyang Technology - Dingyang Technology achieved a revenue of 431 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.67%, with a net profit of 111 million yuan, up 21.49% year-on-year [24][25] - The company is focusing on high-end product development, with significant growth in high-end product sales [25][26] - The overall gross margin remains high at 61.13%, reflecting effective cost management and product pricing strategies [26] Group 6: KEBODA - KEBODA reported a revenue of approximately 17.33 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.76%, with a net profit of about 2.18 billion yuan [27][28] - The company is expanding its global presence, with overseas revenue growth outpacing domestic markets [28][29] - KEBODA's acquisition of intelligent technology is expected to enhance its product offerings and market competitiveness [29][30] Group 7: Desay SV - Desay SV reported a revenue of approximately 76.92 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.63%, with a net profit of about 5.65 billion yuan [31][32] - The company is focusing on expanding its product structure and optimizing customer relationships to mitigate short-term performance pressures [32][33] - Desay SV is actively exploring new business areas, including smart transportation and autonomous delivery [33][34] Group 8: Aishide - Aishide reported a revenue of 393.75 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 31.47%, with a net profit of 33.7 million yuan [35][36] - The company is undergoing a strategic adjustment to focus on high-margin core businesses, showing signs of operational improvement [36][37] - Aishide is establishing an industry fund to invest in emerging technologies, enhancing its growth potential [38][39]

Core Viewpoint - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.779 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.01%. However, in Q3 2025, revenue decreased by 11.48% to 35.327 billion yuan, and net profit dropped by 55.98% to 4.249 billion yuan [1]. Business Performance - The company's main business remains stable, with a total of 57.323 million pigs sold from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.0%. The company has reduced its breeding sow inventory to 3.305 million by the end of Q3 in response to national capacity control measures [2]. - Despite a slight increase in feed prices, the company's production performance and management improvements have led to a continuous decline in the total cost of pig farming, which reached 11.6 yuan/kg in September, down 1.5 yuan/kg from January [2]. - In the meat processing segment, the company slaughtered 19.16 million pigs from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 140%, with a capacity utilization rate of 88%. The meat processing business achieved profitability in Q3 [2]. Production Metrics - As of September 2025, the company achieved a weaning-to-market survival rate of 93%, with overall survival rates around 87%. The pigs' daily weight gain was approximately 880g, and the feed-to-meat ratio during the fattening phase was around 2.64 [2]. - Over 80% of the company's output comes from production lines with costs below 12 yuan/kg, and about 25% from lines below 11 yuan/kg. The best-performing lines can achieve costs as low as 10.5 yuan/kg [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to generate revenues of 124.852 billion yuan, 126.801 billion yuan, and 139.943 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 16.701 billion yuan, 17.935 billion yuan, and 25.2 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 16, 15, and 11 times respectively. The company is viewed positively for its cost control and long-term development potential, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

| 券商 | 重仓股票 | 持仓数量(万股) | 持仓市值(亿元) | 股票所属申万一级行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中信建投 | 牧原股份 | 3743.30 | 19.84 | 农林牧渔 | | 申万宏源 | 光启技术 | 2148.73 | 10.79 | 国防军工 | | 申万宏源 | 藏格矿业 | 1590.71 | 9.28 | 有色金属 | | 招商证券 | 藏格矿业 | 1581.92 | 9.23 | 有色金属 | | 广发证券 | 吉林敖东 | 4322.05 | 8.65 | 医药生物 | | 中信证券 | 上海求士 | 12439.27 | 8.32 | 医药生物 | | 国泰海通 | 邮储银行 | 12646.53 | 7.27 | 銀行 | | 中信证券 | 东北亚券 | 7163.23 | 6.21 | 非银金融 | | 中信建投 | 香农芯创 | 650.3 | 5.93 | 电子 | | 广发证券 | 中矿资源 | 1110.48 | 5.50 | 有色金属 | 三季度末券商重仓股TOP10(按持仓市值排名) 数据来源：Choi ...

进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生4笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为1.58亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，牧原股份今日收盘价为51.19元，上涨1.77%，日换手率为1.30%，成交额为 25.27亿元，全天主力资金净流入9512.65万元，近5日该股累计上涨1.87%，近5日资金合计净流入 9742.31万元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为48.93亿元，近5日增加980.66万元，增幅为0.20%。（数据宝） 牧原股份11月3日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量3.95万股，成交金额202.20万元，大宗交易成交价 为51.19元。该笔交易的买方营业部为中信证券股份有限公司上海分公司，卖方营业部为中信证券华南 股份有限公司佛山分公司。 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （万股） | （万元） | （元） | 溢价（%） | | | | | | | | 中信证券股份有限公 | 中信证券华南股份有限 | | 3.95 | 202.20 | 51.19 | 0.00 | ...

研究所： 证券分析师： 程一胜 S0350521070001 chengys01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 王思言 S0350524010001 wangsy02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 主营业务稳健发展，养殖成本持续优化 ——牧原股份（002714）2025 年三季报点评 2025 年 11 月 03 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 最近一年走势 事件: 2025 年 10 月 31 日，牧原股份发布 2025 年三季报：2025 年前三季度， 公司实现营业收入 1117.9 亿元，同比增长 15.52%；实现归母净利润 147.79 亿元，同比增长 41.01%。其中 2025Q3 实现营业收入 353.27 亿 元，同比下降 11.48%；实现归母净利润 42.49 亿元，同比下降 55.98%。 投资要点: | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/10/31 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | | 12M | | 牧原股份 | -3.4% | 10.4% | 21.4% | | | ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 11 月 03 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2025Q3 生猪开启去化，饲料动保后 周期经营改善—行业周报》-2025.11.2 《生猪开启去化周期，肉牛延续景气 上行—农林牧渔行业 2026 年投资策 略 》-2025.10.28 《二育进场不改生猪去化大势，肉牛 补栏谨慎景气延续性或更强—行业周 报》-2025.10.26 2025Q3 生猪开启去化，饲料动保后周期经营改善 2025Q3 生猪开启去化周期，饲料动保后周期经营改善 2025Q1-Q3 农业行业营业收入 8727.18 亿元，同比+6.44%，归母净利润 354.77 亿元，同比+10.63%。其中 2025Q3 实现营业收入 3090 亿元，同比+1.2%，归母 净利润 94.5 亿元，同比-58.8%。。2025Q1-Q3 行业销售毛利率 11.79%，同比上 升 0.12pct；销售净利率 4.21%，同比上升 0.21pct；净资产收益率 6.75% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the recommended stocks in the consumer sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the coming years [7][11][12][13][14][16][18][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights nine advantageous sectors within the consumer industry, including agriculture, retail, social services, automotive, textiles and apparel, light industry, food, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals, with specific stock recommendations for each sector [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the expected growth in net profits for the recommended companies from 2025 to 2027, with significant increases projected for several firms, indicating strong future performance [11][12][13][14][16][18][19]. Summary by Relevant Sections Agriculture - Recommended Stock: Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027: 154.9 billion, 175.7 billion, 225.5 billion CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 16, and 12 [11][29]. Retail - Recommended Stock: Shangmei Co., Ltd. (上美股份) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027: 10.9 billion, 13.6 billion, 15.8 billion CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 29, 23, and 20 [12][29]. Social Services - Recommended Stock: China Duty Free Group (中国中免) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027: 36.7 billion, 41.7 billion, 47.8 billion CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 43, 38, and 33 [13][29]. Automotive - Recommended Stock: Top Group (拓普集团) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027: 28.0 billion, 33.7 billion, 41.0 billion CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 45.7, 38.1, and 31.3 [14][29]. Textiles and Apparel - Recommended Stock: Huali Group (华利集团) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027: 33.6 billion, 40.7 billion, 47.2 billion CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 20.5, 17.0, and 14.6 [16][29]. Light Industry - Recommended Stock: Craft Home (匠心家居) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027: 9.5 billion, 12.3 billion, 15.4 billion CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 17, and 13 [17][29]. Food - Recommended Stock: Shanxi Fenjiu (山西汾酒) - Projected net profits for 2025-2026: 10.09, 10.93 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 19 and 17 [18][29]. Home Appliances - Recommended Stock: Anker Innovations (安克创新) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027: 26.57 billion, 31.98 billion, 38.95 billion CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 23.59, 19.60, and 16.09 [19][29]. Pharmaceuticals - Recommended Stock: Innovent Biologics (信达生物) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027: 0.34, 0.69, 1.35 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 232.2, 116.5, and 59.3 [19][29].

北京商报讯（记者 郭秀娟 王悦彤） 11月3日，牧原股份在投资者互动平台回答投资者提问称，二级市 场股价受多种因素影响。公司会持续做好经营管理，更好地为股东创造回报。目前公司屠宰肉食业务服 务的客户主要为大型农批经销商、连锁商超、连锁餐饮、食品加工企业、新零售企业等B端客户，没有 向肉制品深加工业务拓展的计划。未来公司聚焦主业，持续降本增效，提升发展质量，同时会探索海外 发展、联农助农等业务，为公司开拓新的增长空间。 ...