农林牧渔 2025 年 09 月 04 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 《猪价新一轮上行或逐步开启，非瘟 疫苗打开动保板块成长空间—行业周 报》-2025.8.17 2025H1 养殖链盈利高增，宠物板块景气延续 ——行业点评报告 陈雪丽（分析师） 王高展（分析师） chenxueli@kysec.cn 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《养殖链盈利修复驱动 2025H1 农业 板 块 利 润 同 比 高 增 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.8.31 《收储助推猪价见底回升，宠物食品 出口及国内消费高景气延续—行业周 报》-2025.8.24 wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 2025H1 养殖链盈利修复驱动农业板块利润同比高增 2025H1农业板块实现营业收入5699.09亿元，同比增长9.28%，归母净利润257.94 亿元，同比上升 193.46%。2025H1 板块销售毛利率 12.49%，同比上升 5.52pct ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. has shown a year-to-date increase of 39.16%, but has recently experienced a decline of 3.28% over the past five trading days, indicating volatility in the market [2]. Company Overview - Muyuan Foods, established on July 13, 2000, and listed on January 28, 2014, is primarily engaged in the breeding and sale of pigs, as well as pig slaughtering [2]. - The company is located in Nanyang City, Henan Province, and operates within the agricultural sector, specifically in pig farming [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.46% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.530 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 1169.77% [2]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Muyuan Foods was 209,000, a decrease of 25.13% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 33.57% to 18,236 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Muyuan Foods has distributed a total of 21.574 billion yuan in dividends, with 11.591 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the third-largest circulating shareholder, holding 149 million shares, an increase of 20.4715 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Various ETFs, including Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, have increased their holdings in Muyuan Foods, indicating growing institutional interest [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant concentration of stock recommendations from brokerages for September, with 41 brokerages recommending a total of 281 unique stocks, indicating a strong market interest in specific companies [1][2] - Key stocks receiving multiple recommendations include Kaiying Network and ZTE Corporation, both recommended by five brokerages, reflecting a consensus on their potential for growth [1][2] - The overall sentiment among brokerages is optimistic, with expectations of a continued structural opportunity in the A-share market, driven by positive feedback from incremental capital inflows [2][3] Group 2 - In August, the performance of recommended stocks was validated, with 287 stocks recommended, of which 244 saw price increases, showcasing the effectiveness of brokerage recommendations [4] - Three stocks from August recommendations saw gains exceeding 100%, including Huasheng Tiancai with a 115.11% increase, indicating strong market performance in specific sectors [4] - The financial sector showed robust performance in August, with most recommended stocks in this category experiencing significant price increases, highlighting the sector's resilience [4][5] Group 3 - The brokerage stock index for August also performed well, with the "Kaiying Securities Stock Index" leading with a 25.58% monthly increase, indicating strong research capabilities among brokerages [5][6] - The liquidity and policy environment are expected to support a structural market trend, with a focus on sectors showing high growth potential, such as technology and consumer electronics [3]

河南日报社财经全媒体中心记者 贾永标 作为实体经济的"领头雁"，河南A股上市公司稳中有进，让我们看到了豫股穿越经济周期的定力与韧 性，以及咬定青山不放松的勇毅与果敢。 传统产业"提质增效"扛大梁 曾几何时，养猪是一门高级不起来的生意，但牧原股份却通过科技养猪，对传统产业进行提质增效，成 就了"世界猪王"。 尤其是今年上半年，该公司实现营业收入764.63亿元，同比增长34.46%，营收规模创历史同期新高；归 母净利润为105.30亿元，同比激增1169.77%，盈利规模也创下近5年新高。 "我们死磕技术，从四面透风的小猪圈发展到现在的智能空气过滤猪舍，无论在零下40℃的黑龙江，还 是40℃的海南，都能让猪舍四季如春，让猪高健康、不生病、长得快。"牧原股份董事长秦英林说，企 业目前正向世界最高养猪水平进发。 在行业人士看来，在上一轮猪周期的洗礼下，部分低效低质产能被市场淘汰，对于牧原股份这样具备成 本领先优势的头部企业而言，是重大利好。今年上半年，牧原股份业绩大幅增长，主要得益于报告期内 生猪出栏量较去年同期上升，带动收入增长，同时生猪养殖成本较去年同期显著下降。 在河南A股上市公司群体中，像牧原股份这样深耕传 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the selection of 240 stocks as "golden stocks" by brokerages, with a focus on those recommended by multiple firms, indicating strong investment interest in these companies [1] Group 1: Company Summaries - **Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH)**: A leading global producer of copper and cobalt, benefiting from rising prices and increased production, with a net profit growth of 55.49% in H1 2025 [2] - **Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ)**: A top player in pig farming with a significant cost advantage, experiencing a 952.92% increase in net profit in H1 2025 due to rising pig prices [3][4] - **AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760.SH)**: A core manufacturer of fighter jets, facing a decline in revenue and profit in H1 2025 but with strong future order potential [5] - **ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ)**: The fourth-largest global telecom equipment provider, seeing a 54.39% stock price increase driven by AI demand, despite a decline in net profit [6] - **Kingsoft Office (688111.SH)**: A leading office software provider with a strong user base, experiencing growth in subscription revenue but facing high valuation concerns [9] - **NewEase (300502.SZ)**: Specializes in optical modules with a significant market share, achieving a remarkable 340.13% stock price increase due to AI demand [10] - **Haiguang Information (688041.SH)**: Develops high-end processors, benefiting from AI demand and a strong order backlog, but facing high valuation risks [11] - **Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ)**: A leading producer of strong-flavor liquor, experiencing a 20.50% stock price increase despite a decline in revenue and profit [13] - **Shede Spirits (600702.SH)**: A liquor company with a diverse product range, seeing a 31.25% stock price increase amid expectations of consumption recovery [15] - **Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH)**: A semiconductor company benefiting from rising storage chip prices, with a 56.16% stock price increase and a forecasted profit growth of 41.52% [17] Group 2: Market Trends and Investment Logic - The overall market sentiment is positive for the selected stocks, driven by sector-specific demand and price increases, particularly in commodities and technology [1][2][3][4][5][6][10][11][13][15][17] - The companies are positioned well within their respective industries, with strong competitive advantages and growth potential, although some face high valuations and market risks [9][10][11][13][15][17]

Group 1 - As of September 1, the A-share market's margin trading balance reached a historical high of 22,969.91 billion yuan, with the financing balance at 22,808.29 billion yuan, surpassing the previous peak on June 18, 2015 [1][2] - Since the beginning of the year, the A-share financing balance has increased by 4,266.84 billion yuan, with the electronic industry seeing an increase of over 950 billion yuan [1][9] - The top stock for net buying in the A-share market is Xinyi Sheng (300502), while the largest net selling stock is Muyuan Foods (002714) [1][9] Group 2 - The margin trading activity in the A-share market has been active, with the margin trading amount accounting for over 10% of the total A-share trading volume for 16 consecutive trading days from August 11 to September 1, peaking at 11.66% on September 1 [5] - The margin trading balance accounted for 2.42% of the A-share circulating market value as of September 1 [5] - Despite the historical highs in margin trading and financing balances, the ratios of margin trading amount to total trading volume and margin balance to circulating market value are still below their historical peaks [5] Group 3 - As of September 1, the electronic industry leads in margin trading balance among 31 sectors, with a total of 3,126.49 billion yuan, followed by non-bank financials at 1,805.59 billion yuan and the computer industry at 1,792.11 billion yuan [6][7] - Other sectors with margin trading balances exceeding 1,000 billion yuan include electric equipment, pharmaceutical biology, machinery, automotive, and non-ferrous metals [6] Group 4 - The top ten stocks with the highest net buying amounts this year include Xinyi Sheng, Shenghong Technology, BYD, and others, with Xinyi Sheng seeing a net buying of 108.26 billion yuan [10][11] - The stocks with the highest net selling amounts include Muyuan Foods, Kunlun Wanwei, and Luzhou Laojiao, with Muyuan Foods experiencing a net selling of 15.04 billion yuan [12][13]

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares showed a slight decline today, with the Consumer ETF (159928) experiencing a minor pullback, and trading volume exceeding 620 million yuan [1] - The Consumer ETF has seen significant net subscriptions, with 84 million units purchased during the day and nearly 500 million yuan attracted yesterday, totaling over 3.4 billion yuan in the last ten days [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer 50 ETF (159268) remained stable, with trading volume surpassing 28 million yuan, and has seen net inflows on 6 out of the last 10 days, accumulating over 18 million yuan [3] - Key stocks in this ETF include Lao Pu Gold and Midea Group, both rising over 2%, while Li Ning fell over 1% [3] Group 3: Sector Performance - The liquor sector showed strong performance in Q2, with leading brand Moutai maintaining steady growth, while other companies began to clear inventory and adjust product structures [5] - The condiment sector, particularly Haitian, demonstrated resilience, while the frozen food market is stabilizing despite competitive pressures [6] - The new consumption sector is expected to see steady performance, driven by high demand, with tea beverage companies benefiting from the delivery market [6] Group 4: Agricultural Sector Outlook - In the livestock sector, policies are guiding capacity reduction, with expectations for pig prices to rise as production capacity decreases [7] - The planting sector faces challenges from extreme weather, but there are positive expectations for global crop production and pricing, particularly for wheat and soybeans [7] Group 5: ETF Composition and Strategy - The Consumer ETF (159928) has a strong index with over 68% of its top ten holdings, including four leading liquor stocks accounting for 32% and major pig farming companies at 15% [8] - The Hong Kong Consumer 50 ETF (159268) is positioned as an efficient investment choice for the new consumption sector, supporting T+0 trading and not occupying QDII quotas [9]

Core Insights - The China Securities Index Free Cash Flow Index (932365) has shown a positive performance, with a 0.86% increase as of September 2, 2025, and notable gains in constituent stocks such as Silver Nonferrous (601212) up by 10.08% and Jiejia Weichuang (300724) up by 8.93% [1] Performance Summary - The Free Cash Flow ETF Fund (159233) has experienced a 1.24% increase, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.14 yuan. Over the past two weeks, the fund has accumulated a total increase of 3.58% [1] - The fund's liquidity is reflected in a turnover rate of 1.07% and a trading volume of 1.2954 million yuan. The average daily trading volume over the past week was 17.6088 million yuan [1] - The fund has seen a net inflow of 19.1927 million yuan recently, with a total of 25.8568 million yuan net inflow over the last five trading days, averaging 5.1714 million yuan per day [1] Return Metrics - Since its inception, the Free Cash Flow ETF Fund has achieved a maximum monthly return of 7.80% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 3 months, with a total increase of 12.56%. The average return during up months is 4.07%, with a monthly profit probability of 92% [2] - The maximum drawdown since inception is 3.28%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.24%. The recovery period after drawdown is 12 days, indicating a relatively quick recovery compared to comparable funds [2] - The fund has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [2] Top Holdings - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index Free Cash Flow Index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938), Wuliangye (000858), and COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919), collectively accounting for 57.03% of the index [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is experiencing high-quality development with significant policy transformations aimed at protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation. Future growth stocks will likely focus on technological content and innovative models that balance farmer interests [4][12] - The overall profitability of listed pig companies has significantly increased due to a stable pig price year-on-year and a substantial decrease in costs. Although pig prices may face pressure in the second half of the year, the trend of improving efficiency suggests that profitability will remain strong [4][12] - The poultry sector is facing a persistent contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," leading to losses that force breeding farms to reduce capacity. Integrated enterprises and contract farming are expected to gain market share [5][13] - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group, which is expected to see growth due to improved management and increased capacity utilization [6][14] - The pet industry is witnessing a concentration of market share among leading brands, with potential growth opportunities for mid-tier brands. The impact of tariffs on exports is expected to diminish over time [7][16] - The agricultural sector is closely monitoring the effects of US-China trade negotiations, with expectations of tightening soybean supply and potential price increases for soybean meal [8][17] Summary by Sections 1. Swine - Latest pig price is 13.70 CNY/kg (down 0.01 CNY/kg month-on-month), with an average slaughter weight of 127.83 kg (down 0.15 kg month-on-month) and a price of 445 CNY for 15 kg piglets (down 18 CNY month-on-month). Short-term price declines may be due to policy-driven weight reductions [3][12] - The industry is undergoing profound policy transformations, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and stimulating innovation. Companies with cost advantages and strong connections with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][12][13] 2. Poultry - As of September 1, the price of chicken seedlings in Yantai is 3.45 CNY/piece (down 5.5% month-on-month) and the price of broiler chickens is 3.55 CNY/kg (down 1.39% month-on-month) [5][13] - The white feather chicken industry is facing ongoing challenges of high capacity and weak consumption, leading to a reduction in breeding capacity among chicken farms [5][13] 3. Feed - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group, which is expected to benefit from industry recovery and improved management effects [6][14] 4. Pets - The pet industry is characterized by a stable four-brand dominance, with increasing concentration expected. The impact of tariffs on exports is anticipated to lessen, and leading companies are expected to maintain high growth rates [7][16] 5. Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector is closely watching the impact of US-China trade negotiations, with expectations of tightening soybean supply and potential price increases for soybean meal [8][17] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4497, up 2.71% from the previous week, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index closed at 3001, up 2.02% [18][21]

Group 1: Performance of Henan A-Share Listed Companies - In the first half of 2025, 111 Henan A-share listed companies reported that nearly 80% achieved profitability, with overall revenue and net profit reaching new highs [2] - The number of companies with revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan increased to 13, indicating strong growth in the region [2] - Among these, Muyuan Foods achieved a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, and a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan, up 1169.77% [4] Group 2: Innovations in Traditional Industries - Muyuan Foods has transformed traditional pig farming through technology, leading to significant improvements in efficiency and productivity [4] - The company has developed smart pig farming facilities that maintain optimal conditions for pig health, contributing to its market leadership [4] - Other companies in Henan are also focusing on enhancing traditional industries, gaining attention from capital markets [4] Group 3: Growth in Green Industries - The green industry in Henan has seen significant growth, with sales revenue in ecological protection and environmental governance increasing by 16.1% [11] - The sales revenue of the energy-saving and environmental protection industry grew by 21.9%, indicating a shift towards sustainable practices [11] - Jin Dan Technology is leveraging modern biotechnology to convert corn into high-value biodegradable materials, showcasing innovation in the green sector [8][10] Group 4: New Quality Industries - Companies like Zhongchuang Zhiling are advancing in new quality industries, with a revenue of 19.982 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.42% [12] - The company is investing in AI chip technology to enhance its capabilities in smart mining and digital factories [12] - The focus on R&D is evident, with Henan A-share companies collectively spending 10.861 billion yuan on research and development in the first half of 2025 [13] Group 5: Mergers and Acquisitions Policy - The Henan provincial government has introduced policies to support mergers and acquisitions among listed companies, aiming to optimize resource allocation and promote high-quality development [14] - This initiative is expected to facilitate the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries while fostering the growth of emerging sectors [14] - The emphasis on mergers and acquisitions aligns with the strategic goals of economic transformation in Henan [14]