记者 陈姗 "2025年，中国生猪市场在供需矛盾加剧、政策密集调控与行业深度转型的多重因素交织下，走过了艰 难的一年。"回顾过去一年的生猪市场，宝城期货投资咨询部毕慧如是说。 生猪价格的低迷贯穿2025年全年。毕慧表示，2025年生猪全年价格中枢显著低于2023年至2024年，2025 年10月一度探底至11元/公斤，行业陷入深度亏损。据卓创资讯监测，12月份生猪月均价为11.58元／公 斤，同比跌26.76%，养猪企业整体仍处于亏损状态。 2006年至今，国内生猪养殖行业经历了四轮完整的"猪周期"。由于价格波动较大且频繁，产业深受"猪 周期"困扰。在业内人士看来，当前所处的是第五轮"猪周期"最痛苦的"磨底"阶段。 面对持续的价格压力，近期记者调研发现，近年来，越来越多生猪养殖企业不再被动承受周期波动，他 们通过组建专业期货团队、开展精细化套期保值操作，从"被动承受周期"向"主动管理风险"转型。 "猪周期"持续"磨底" "猪周期"持续探底，养殖企业要在下行阶段实现稳健经营，除了比拼成本控制能力，通过期货套期保值 进行风险管理，正变得愈发关键。 石羊农科董事长乔冰涛表示，当下猪价相对低迷，在现货利润偏低或亏损的 ...

中经记者 蒋政 北京报道 看到2025年生猪价格走势，河南养殖户老张庆幸在5月份之后没有补栏。他的猪场因为猪瘟遭遇清圈， 在分析市场行情后，老张计划空置半年。 "养殖应该在9月份左右就进入亏损状态了。现在依然不盈利。自己好歹躲过了这波低迷行情。"老张告 诉《中国经营报》记者。 记者注意到，"产能调整缓慢，猪价低位运行"是我国生猪养殖行业在2025年的主基调。而在现有产能贡 献中，规模猪企依然占据大头。尽管多家猪企全力进行降本增效，但在供需失衡面前依然难掩行业亏 损。 多位行业人士预测，到2026年第二季度，猪价有望实现盈亏平衡线。而整个行业未来将由规模效应转向 精细化运营，市场也将步入微利阶段。 供需失衡引发行业性亏损 根据卓创资讯数据，截至2025年12月28日，全国生猪交易均价为12.25元/公斤，较26日上涨0.62元/公 斤。 正常情况下，我国生猪养殖成本盈亏线在14元/公斤之上浮动。目前行业依然处于亏损状态。 老张的养殖场没有雇人，其养殖成本在13元/公斤。但是，因为零星出现的猪瘟，让他的猪场持续出现 清圈。直到2025年5月份之后，他就将猪场空置了。按照他的计算，2025年上半年，猪价还在盈亏线之 ...

对于2025年12月生猪销售情况，卓创资讯生猪分析师范晴晴向智通财经记者表示："12月生猪价格呈现 跌-涨-跌-涨走势，月底涨幅较大，但全月均价环比仍微跌。"她指出，月初养殖端出栏积极性高，市场 供应充足，而终端需求平淡，导致价格下行；中下旬受南方腌腊备货带动，价格短暂回升，但备货结束 后需求收缩，价格再次回调。"2026年春节在2月中旬，终端备货启动时间较晚，预计1月末才逐步开 启。" 新希望相关负责人向智通财经记者表示，去年与以往年度不一样，旺季不旺，受整体供给宽松影响，价 格仍低迷。基本盘来看，2026年二季度前供给端仍相对充裕。 卓创数据显示，2025年12月全国白条猪肉出厂均价同比下降26.21%，低价在一定程度上刺激终端消 费，屠宰企业日均屠宰量环比增幅15.22%，但仍难以扭转猪价整体颓势。 去产能进程缓慢 1月9日，2025年猪价在12月触及新低中收官，有猪企高管向智通财经记者表示："猪价已经持续倒挂将 近半年。" 上市猪企近期陆续披露的去年12月销售数据显示，2025生猪价格"旺季不旺"，部分企业出栏量环比上 升，但销售均价普遍同比大幅下滑，行业整体仍处于底部运行阶段。智通财经记者从业内采访 ...

证券之星消息，1月9日养殖业板块较上一交易日下跌0.22%，福成股份领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4120.43，上涨0.92%。深证成指报收于14120.15，上涨1.15%。养殖业板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600965 | 福成股份 | 5.77 | -1.70% | 21.10万 | 1.22亿 | | 000735 | 罗牛山 | 8.55 | -1.04% | 63.01万 | 5.41亿 | | 002714 | 牧原股份 | 49.76 | -0.80% | 34.58万 | 17.25亿 | | 002157 | 正邦科技 | 3.27 | -0.61% | 156.83万 | 5.13亿 | | 002234 | 民和股份 | 8.90 | -0.45% | 6.89万 | 6119.44万 | | 002124 | 天邦食品 | 2.76 | -0.36% | 36.38万 | 1.00亿 | | 301116 | 益客食品 | 11. ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company**: Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Pig farming and related agricultural sectors - **Market Focus**: Expansion into the Vietnamese market through collaboration with local leader BF Company Key Points and Arguments International Expansion Strategy - Muyuan Foods has partnered with BF Company in Vietnam to expand its farming facilities, aiming to quickly adapt to the local market and enhance its market share and profitability [2][4] - The company plans to invest approximately 3.2 billion yuan to build a pig farming facility with a capacity of 1.6 million pigs and a feed factory with a capacity of 60,000 tons [2][9] - The company is set to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange by the end of January 2026, further accelerating its internationalization efforts [3] Market Dynamics - The domestic pig farming industry in China is experiencing increased scale, with over 70% of farms expected to have more than 500 pigs by 2024 [6] - The top 20 companies (CR20) are projected to hold about 30% of the market share by 2024, but domestic capacity expansion is limited due to macroeconomic policies, prompting leading companies to seek overseas growth [6] Competitive Advantages for Overseas Expansion - Successful overseas expansion requires clear competitive advantages, such as advanced technology, differentiated products, and cost control capabilities [7] - Localized operations, including establishing factories and teams that understand local cultures and disease conditions, are crucial for success [7] Technological Innovations - Muyuan Foods has implemented advanced disease control measures, including a seven-stage air filtration system that intercepts aerosol particles larger than 0.3 microns, significantly reducing farming costs [5][12] - The company has achieved a daily weight gain of 880 grams for fattening pigs and a survival rate of 87%, with weaned piglet costs reduced to 230-240 yuan per head [10] Market Potential in Vietnam - Vietnam is the fourth-largest pork consumer globally, with a market that remains underdeveloped, presenting significant growth opportunities [13][14] - The commercial and scale of pig farming in Vietnam is approximately 51%, indicating room for improvement [14] Future Goals - Muyuan aims to reach a scale of 450,000 breeding sows and 11 million market pigs by 2030, with over 6 million being self-operated [16][17] - The company plans to establish localized R&D centers and production bases to enhance supply chain management and commercialize breeding [16] Challenges and Considerations - Effective disease control is critical in Vietnam, where past epidemics have impacted the industry; the company's health management systems are designed to monitor and intervene in pig health effectively [11] - The competitive landscape in Vietnam includes both multinational and local companies, with major players holding significant market shares [14][15] Additional Important Insights - The collaboration with BF Company is pivotal for Muyuan's strategy, leveraging local expertise to navigate the Vietnamese market effectively [4] - The company's focus on cost control and technological innovation positions it well to compete in the international market [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 shows a positive trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points and nearly 80% of listed companies experiencing stock price increases, supported by significant capital repurchases and increases by industry players [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the total transaction volume of the A-share market reached a historic record of 420 trillion yuan [1] - A total of 1494 listed companies implemented share repurchases, with a total amount of 142.736 billion yuan [1] - 534 companies announced shareholding increases, with a maximum proposed increase amount of 83.922 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Capital Support - The trend of repurchases and increases is supported by a special loan program, with 522 companies or their shareholders disclosing repurchase and increase loan situations, amounting to a maximum of 111.165 billion yuan [1] - As of January 8, 2026, the number of disclosed repurchase and increase loans reached 789, with a total maximum loan amount of 160.62 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Leading Companies - In 2025, 293 companies repurchased over 100 million yuan, with 15 companies repurchasing over 1 billion yuan, and one company exceeding 10 billion yuan [3] - Midea Group led with a total repurchase amount of 11.545 billion yuan, being the only company to exceed 10 billion yuan in repurchases for the year [3] - Guizhou Moutai repurchased a total of 6 billion yuan in 2025, marking its first-ever cancellation-style repurchase since its listing [4] Group 4: Loan Policy Changes - The People's Bank of China optimized the stock repurchase and increase loan policy, reducing the self-funding ratio requirement from 30% to 10% and extending the maximum loan term from 1 year to 3 years [6] - The total quota for the combined tools of 500 billion yuan for securities, funds, and insurance companies and 300 billion yuan for stock repurchase and increase loans was raised to 800 billion yuan [6] Group 5: Economic Impact - The stock repurchase and increase loans provide low-cost funding for companies, facilitating effective market value management and enhancing investor confidence [7] - Recommendations for future loan programs include expanding coverage to more quality enterprises and optimizing pricing mechanisms [7]

证券之星消息，1月8日，生物经济（970038）指数报收于2221.64点，涨0.9%，成交252.8亿元，换手率 1.96%。当日该指数成份股中，上涨的有40家，乐普医疗以5.99%的涨幅领涨，下跌的有7家，牧原股份 以1.26%的跌幅领跌。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 生物经济（970038）指数十大成份股详情如下： 资金流向方面，生物经济（970038）指数成份股当日主力资金净流入合计1.12亿元，游资资金净流入合 计5309.97万元，散户资金净流出合计1.65亿元。成份股资金流向详情见下表： ...

证券之星消息，1月8日养殖业板块较上一交易日下跌0.31%，牧原股份领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4082.98，下跌0.07%。深证成指报收于13959.48，下跌0.51%。养殖业板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日养殖业板块主力资金净流出2.71亿元，游资资金净流出635.37万元，散户资金净 流入2.77亿元。养殖业板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000048 京基智农 | | 1776.12万 | 7.61% | 85.66万 | 0.37% | -1861.78万 | -7.97% | | 600965 福成股份 | | 966.83万 | 6.78% | -397.55万 | -2.79% | -569.28万 | -3.99% | | 002458 益生股份 | | 596.81万 | 3.89% | -593.03万 | -3.86% | -3.78万 ...

主线一：生猪养殖--产能去化逐步深化，静待周期拐点 我们认为生猪养殖行业的供需格局向好，短期生猪供过于求趋势持续，预计在 26 年上半年仍将给猪价带来 压 力，行业性亏损持续。价格磨底与亏损是无形的手，政策引导产能调控是有形的手，二者有机结合，产能 去化将 逐步深化，26 年下半年供应压力将逐步缓解，需求端相对平稳，预计行业供需格局持续向好。近期建 议关注能繁 母猪存栏去化及疫病情况。 非洲猪瘟后，生猪养殖结构出现变化，表现为规模化程度快速提升和短期养户增多， 受此影响行业产能变动 表现为难涨难跌的窄幅波动，对应生猪供需矛盾减弱，在养殖正常出栏的情况下，猪价波 动幅度收窄。我们 认为，成本是猪企能否实现行业超额收益和长期成长的核心要素，并且成本因素在周期下行期 的重要性尤为 突出。在未来几年，猪企表现将有明显分化，具备成本优势的企业有望维持温和扩张，而落后产能 将被进一 步淘汰。 我们认为，板块估值低位具备安全性，26 年板块基本面持续向好静待拐点，头部企业估值有 望修复，成本优 势明显的头部企业长期投资的价值属性提升，重点推荐头部猪企牧原股份，其他受益标的德康农 牧、温氏股 份、神农股份、天康生物等也有望受 ...

本报讯 （记者肖艳青）1月5日，牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"牧原股份"）发布2025年12月销售 简报显示，公司全年累计销售7798万头，销售收入达1328亿元。 此次12月销售简报的发布，展现了牧原股份在行业周期波动中的经营韧性，随着其财务状况的持续向 好、成本管控能力的不断提升，有望在后续经营中持续释放发展潜力，实现高质量发展。 据牧原股份此前发布的2025年三季报显示，去年前三季度实现归母净利润147.79亿元，同比大幅增长 41.01%，盈利规模稳步扩大。现金流层面，去年前三季度其经营活动产生的现金流量净额高达285.8亿 元，为企业稳健运营提供了坚实的资金保障。 值得关注的是，即便在四季度猪价低迷的行业环境下，牧原股份仍实现了一定盈利，进一步印证了公司 现金流管理能力的扎实与财务结构的持续改善。 在成本管控方面，数据显示，2025年11月份牧原股份生猪养殖完全成本约为11.3元/kg，相较于2025年初 的13.1元/kg，已下降接近2元/kg，成本下行趋势明确。 牧原股份表示，成本下降主要得益于生产成绩的改善与期间费用摊销的下降。尽管2025年饲料价格存在 小幅上涨，但依托生产成绩的持续提升与 ...