Group 1 - The report highlights the recent performance of various industries, with notable gains in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment, while retail and real estate sectors faced declines [1][1][1] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of technological breakthroughs and supply-demand optimization, indicating a shift towards quality improvement in economic growth [11][12][19] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant growth, with the establishment of a dedicated regulatory body and a notable increase in the commercial aerospace index, which has risen by 46.52% since April 7 [47][48] Group 2 - The report indicates a seasonal recovery in social financing, with November seeing an increase of 24,885 billion yuan, driven primarily by government bond issuance [4][7] - The credit environment is showing signs of marginal improvement, particularly in corporate loans, which increased by 6,100 billion yuan in November, reflecting a recovery in demand [5][6] - The report notes that the retail sector is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on quality, as highlighted by the Ministry of Commerce's emphasis on retail quality upgrades [1][1][1] Group 3 - The report discusses the rising interest in inquiry transfers, which have seen a significant increase in both project numbers and transfer scale, indicating a growing trend in the market [51][52] - The technology sector is expected to remain a key focus, with upcoming events such as the Volcano Engine FORCE conference anticipated to showcase advancements in AI and cloud services [56]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [2][13]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with the agricultural index underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13]. - The pig farming industry is facing a downward price trend, with the average pig price at 11.48 yuan/kg, indicating a continued loss across the sector [21][22]. - Poultry farming shows signs of stabilization, with white feather chicken prices at 7.33 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase, while yellow feather chicken prices are improving due to better demand [28][31]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, with live cattle prices at 26.68 yuan/kg [33]. - The planting sector is experiencing tight supply conditions, with corn prices rising to 2238.57 yuan/ton, indicating potential for price increases if crop yields decline [37][38]. - Feed prices are stabilizing, with pig feed prices at 3.32 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing upward trends [51][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.63 kg, with prices expected to continue declining due to excess supply and ongoing losses in the industry [22][21]. - The report suggests focusing on low-cost, high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [22][24]. 2. Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken market is under pressure, but yellow feather chicken prices are improving due to better demand and reduced supply [28][31]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve if consumer demand recovers [28][31]. 3. Livestock - The beef market is anticipated to rise as it enters the peak consumption season, with live cattle prices showing a year-on-year increase [33]. - The dairy sector is experiencing a reduction in stock, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in the coming year [33]. 4. Planting Chain - Corn prices are on the rise, with a current price of 2238.57 yuan/ton, indicating a tightening supply situation [37][38]. - The planting sector is expected to improve if there are significant reductions in crop yields due to adverse weather conditions [37][38]. 5. Feed & Aquatic Products - Feed prices are stabilizing, with pig feed prices at 3.32 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing positive trends [51][55]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring price movements in the feed and aquatic sectors for investment opportunities [51][55].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the accelerated reduction of pig production capacity and highlights investment opportunities in raw milk and beef cattle sectors [2][15]. Livestock Farming - As of December 12, the average price for lean pigs in China is 11.03 CNY/kg, unchanged from the previous week but down 33.2% year-on-year. The industry continues to face significant supply pressure and losses due to short-term demand stagnation and regional epidemics [7][15]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in October, indicating a more pronounced decline compared to September. The winter season is noted as a high-risk period for pig diseases, which may further impact production capacity [15]. - Recommended leading companies include Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture and New Hope Liuhe. Companies with potential for operational turnaround include Zhengbang Technology, while smaller firms like Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group are also suggested for consideration [15]. - For broiler chickens, the average price for live chickens and chicks is 3.65 CNY/jin and 3.54 CNY/chick, respectively, both showing a week-on-week increase of 1.4% [15]. Dairy Sector - The current price for fresh milk in major production areas is 3.02 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.2% year-on-year. The industry is expected to continue reducing capacity due to long-term losses and financial pressures [16]. - The report anticipates a gradual balance in supply and demand as previous capacity reductions take effect, with a positive outlook for the raw milk cycle in 2026-2027 [16]. - Recommended companies in the dairy sector include Yurun Agriculture and Modern Farming [16]. Feed and Animal Health - The report notes a mixed performance in aquatic product prices, with a significant rebound in white shrimp prices due to previous disease outbreaks and delayed stocking [17]. - The aquaculture industry is expected to improve in 2025 compared to 2023-2024, although profitability is projected to remain lower than pre-2023 levels, necessitating upgrades in feed formulations and farming techniques [17]. - Leading feed companies are expected to enhance their market share domestically and expand internationally, leveraging their cost advantages [17]. - Key companies to watch in the animal health sector include Keqian Biological, Pulaike, Ruipu Biological, and Biological Shares, as they expand into pet healthcare [17]. Crop Sector - The domestic corn spot price is 2357 CNY/ton, remaining stable, while soybean meal prices have increased by 1.5% to 3159 CNY/ton [18]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring weather conditions in South America and trade factors affecting soybean prices [18]. - Companies to focus on in the seed industry include Suqian Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [18]. Pet Food Industry - The global production layout of pet food companies is maturing, with limited impact from trade frictions on overseas operations. The domestic market shows high growth potential, driven by functional and health-oriented products [20]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards consolidation, with leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Shares showing strong brand performance [20]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for industry growth and the rise of domestic brands [20].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月13日 2025年12月14日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（186） 优于大市 粮价有望筑底企稳，看好肉奶周期共振反转 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。12 月 12 日生猪价格 11.34 元/ 公斤，周环比+2.07%；7kg 仔猪价格约 219.52 元/头，周环比+1.21%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。12 月 12 日，鸡苗价格 3.38 元/ 羽，周环比+2.11%；毛鸡价格 7.24 元/公斤，周环比+2.26%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。12 月 11 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 4.6/5.6/8.2 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +2.22%/+7.69%/+0.00%。 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。12 月 12 日，鸡蛋主 产区价格 3.09 元/斤，周环比+3.00%，同比+0.98%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好 2025 年牛周期反转上行。12 月 12 日，国 内育肥公牛出栏价为 ...

Group 1 - Since 2025, a total of 1,468 A-share listed companies have implemented share buybacks, with a cumulative buyback amount of 137.5 billion yuan [1] - Among these companies, 14 have repurchased more than 1 billion yuan, including Midea Group, Kweichow Moutai, CATL, XCMG, Muyuan Foods, COSCO Shipping Holdings, WuXi AppTec, Hikvision, BOE Technology Group, SF Holding, Sanan Optoelectronics, Sany Heavy Industry, Guotai Junan, and Haier Smart Home [1] - Midea Group leads in buyback amount, with a total of 11.545 billion yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][9] - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][43] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming industry is experiencing accelerated capacity reduction, with current pig prices and expectations both weak, leading to a significant decline in profitability [9] - In November, 14 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 16.82 million pigs, a decrease of 2.21% month-on-month but an increase of 22.48% year-on-year [13] - The average selling price of pigs showed a slight recovery, with prices ranging from 11.1 to 12.53 yuan/kg, although still down approximately 30% year-on-year [15] Feed Sector - The report notes that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices slightly down and soybean meal prices up [28] - As of December 12, corn prices averaged 2,356.67 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, while soybean meal prices rose by 1.54% to 3,159.43 yuan/ton [28] Planting Sector - The report indicates a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, suggesting favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, with significant investment opportunities [3][43] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with increasing domestic brand recognition and continuous growth among leading companies [3][43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector, particularly focusing on livestock and feed companies [7]. Core Insights - The USDA's December supply and demand report indicates a tightening supply-demand balance for corn, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [15][18]. - For soybeans, the report suggests a recovery in U.S. imports, which is likely to support price recovery [33][35]. - The beef market is projected to see a price increase in 2026, driven by reduced production and strong domestic demand [3][6]. - The dairy sector is expected to experience a price reversal due to a combination of reduced supply and increased demand for both meat and milk [4][6]. - The pork market is anticipated to face a decline in prices in the latter half of 2026, despite a positive outlook for the first half [6][7]. Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report predicts a reduction in global corn production by 3.27 million tons, leading to a decrease in global ending stocks and a tightening supply-demand ratio [15][16]. - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with expectations for a gradual recovery supported by low trader inventories [18][19]. Soybeans - The global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase slightly, with a projected rise in U.S. imports and a positive outlook for domestic soybean meal prices [33][35]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring U.S.-China trade relations and South American weather conditions for future price movements [38]. Wheat - The global wheat supply remains ample, with an increase in production forecasts from major exporting countries, leading to a slight rise in the global ending stocks ratio [2][45]. - Domestic wheat prices are expected to stabilize, influenced by the overall supply situation and potential government storage interventions [48][52]. Beef - The USDA forecasts a decrease in U.S. beef production, with prices expected to rise due to strong domestic demand and reduced imports [3][6]. - The report anticipates a turning point in the domestic beef cycle by 2025, with prices likely to trend upwards [3][6]. Dairy - The report indicates a potential reversal in the dairy market, driven by reduced cow inventories and a tightening supply-demand balance [4][6]. - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rise as a result of these factors [4][6]. Pork - The U.S. pork market is projected to see a decline in prices in the latter half of 2026, despite a positive outlook for the first half of the year [6][7]. - Domestic breeding sow inventories are stabilizing, which may help support industry profitability [6][7]. Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is expected to recover, with increased production and consumption anticipated as avian influenza impacts diminish [6][7]. - Domestic chicken supply is projected to stabilize, with a focus on internal demand recovery [6][7].

● 本报记者杨梓岩 11月下旬，牧原股份（002714）赴港上市迎来关键进展，中国证监会已对其出具境外发行上市备案通知 书，标志着其国际化战略迈出实质性一步。 在行业周期波动趋缓、竞争步入成本决胜的新阶段，牧原股份凭借持续下降的养殖成本与稳健增长的业 绩，展现出穿越周期的强大韧性。牧原股份董事会秘书秦军日前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，公 司正通过持续研发投入与降本增效，推动可持续发展，期待通过自身业务发展以及对行业技术、产业链 的贡献，助力行业高质量发展。 全球化价值重塑 对于牧原股份而言，此次赴港上市是公司面向长远全球化发展的重要战略落子。秦军明确表示，发行H 股主要是为未来五到十年的国际化拓展铺路。 根据备案通知书，牧原股份拟发行不超过5.46亿股境外上市普通股，于香港联交所主板上市。募集资金 将主要用于拓展全球商业版图及研发投入。 港股上市被视为牧原全球化战略的关键助推器。秦军指出，上市过程本身有助于公司开拓海外业务，两 者相辅相成。 近年来，牧原的出海步伐明显加快：2024年在越南设立子公司，并与当地农业企业BAF达成战略合作； 今年8月，与正大集团签署全球战略合作协议；9月末，进一步与BAF计划 ...

● 本报记者 杨梓岩 11月下旬，牧原股份赴港上市迎来关键进展，中国证监会已对其出具境外发行上市备案通知书，标志着 其国际化战略迈出实质性一步。 在行业周期波动趋缓、竞争步入成本决胜的新阶段，牧原股份凭借持续下降的养殖成本与稳健增长的业 绩，展现出穿越周期的强大韧性。牧原股份董事会秘书秦军日前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，公 司正通过持续研发投入与降本增效，推动可持续发展，期待通过自身业务发展以及对行业技术、产业链 的贡献，助力行业高质量发展。 全球化价值重塑 对于牧原股份而言，此次赴港上市是公司面向长远全球化发展的重要战略落子。秦军明确表示，发行H 股主要是为未来五到十年的国际化拓展铺路。 根据备案通知书，牧原股份拟发行不超过5.46亿股境外上市普通股，于香港联交所主板上市。募集资金 将主要用于拓展全球商业版图及研发投入。 港股上市被视为牧原全球化战略的关键助推器。秦军指出，上市过程本身有助于公司开拓海外业务，两 者相辅相成。 财务结构的优化是公司近期另一大亮点。随着大规模资本开支阶段结束，牧原现金流状况显著改善。秦 向"10元时代"迈进 如果说国际化布局着眼于未来增长空间，那么持续深化的成本控制能力则是 ...

本报记者 肖艳青 养殖场内，智能饲喂系统实现猪群的精准投喂，巡检机器人自主巡检，集控大屏闪烁着各项生产数据——曾经手持铲勺的 饲养员，如今正紧盯着屏幕，化身掌控全局的"数据监管员"。这不仅是生产场景的转换，更是我国养殖业在阵痛中开启深层变 革的直观呈现。 当前，养殖业正在经历洗牌，行业竞争逻辑也加速改变：从一味追求规模扩张，转向对质量效益与全球资源整合能力的比 拼。在此背景下，头部企业以智能化革新练内功、以全球化布局谋外拓，"内外兼修"加速锻造穿越周期、决胜未来的新引擎。 产能调控成共识 今年以来，我国生猪价格处于下跌趋势。中国养猪网数据显示，12月12日，生猪（外三元）价格为11.45元/千克，同比下 降27.85%，环比下降3.94%。生猪价格的持续下探，使得多家企业宣布中止或延期生猪养殖项目。 "这两年，我们公司接到的焊接猪栅栏的订单明显减少了。"某焊接设备制造企业负责人向《证券日报》记者表示，这类产 品主要用于新建规模化养猪场的配套建设，订单下滑反映出生猪养殖行业新增产能放缓的情况。 面对挑战，产能调控与行业自律成为推动行业走出困局的关键路径。 今年以来，农业农村部等有关部门多次召开生猪产能调控座谈会 ...