Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry for the third quarter of 2025 [2] Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector's net profit increased by 11% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with five sub-industries showing profit growth [16][17] - The overall performance of the sector declined in Q3 2025, with a 58% year-on-year drop in net profit, primarily due to significant losses in the breeding industry [18][19] - The pig farming sector faced a downturn with falling prices and a return to industry-wide losses, while the poultry sector showed mixed results with white feathered chickens stabilizing and yellow feathered chickens experiencing a significant decline [22][58] - The pet food segment continues to thrive domestically, although exports have been negatively impacted by increased tariffs [22][58] - The animal health sector benefited from high livestock inventory levels, leading to substantial revenue growth for companies in this space [22][58] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The sector's net profit for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 369.4 billion, marking an 11% increase year-on-year [16] - In Q3 2025, the sector's net profit was 95.9 billion, reflecting a 58% decrease year-on-year and a 27% decrease quarter-on-quarter [18] 2. Key Sub-Industry Performance 2.1 Pig Farming - The pig farming sector's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 was 3036.4 billion, with a 9.9% year-on-year increase, but Q3 saw a significant profit drop of 68.4% [22] - The average profit per head for self-bred pigs was approximately 60 yuan, with significant variations among companies [36][38] 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feathered chicken companies reported a revenue of 243.4 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit increase of 104.6% [64] - Yellow feathered chicken prices declined significantly, leading to a challenging market environment [58] 2.3 Pet Food - The pet food sector achieved a revenue of 103.0 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [22] - Domestic brands are gaining market share, while exports to the U.S. have decreased by 25.6% due to tariffs [22] 2.4 Animal Health - The animal health sector's revenue reached 132.7 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, with a 70.2% increase in net profit [22] - New product launches have contributed to above-average growth for some companies in this sector [22]

牧原股份所属申万行业为：农林牧渔-养殖业-生猪养殖。所属概念板块包括：猪肉概念、合成生物、生 态农业、乡村振兴、基金重仓等。 截至9月30日，牧原股份股东户数18.56万，较上期减少11.19%；人均流通股20534股，较上期增加 12.60%。2025年1月-9月，牧原股份实现营业收入1117.90亿元，同比增长15.52%；归母净利润147.79亿 元，同比增长41.01%。 分红方面，牧原股份A股上市后累计派现265.76亿元。近三年，累计派现165.94亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，牧原股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流 通股东，持股1.83亿股，相比上期增加3369.99万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第七大流通 股东，持股4655.42万股，相比上期减少210.32万股。汇添富中证主要消费ETF（159928）位居第九大流 通股东，持股3452.69万股，为新进股东。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第十大流通股东，持股 3361.68万股，相比上期减少106.36万股。华夏沪深300ETF（510330）退出十大流通股东之列。 11月 ...

农业会是高低切换的重点方向之一吗？20251110 摘要 农业板块整体估值偏低，PB 分位数在申万 31 个子行业中排名靠后，但 各子板块表现分化，动物保健涨幅领先，但主要受事件驱动，缺乏板块 效应。 未来农业板块可能受益于反内卷政策的持续推进，以及各细分领域估值 较低带来的投资机会。生猪养殖方面，预计政策端将推出强力干预措施 以应对猪价下跌及产能去化。 中国可能增加对美国农产品的采购，包括大豆、小麦和高粱，这将降低 饲料粮成本，并可能扩大猪粮比，从而提振市场对生猪养殖板块的预期。 生猪养殖板块在供给增加、成本降低、消费回升的三重预期下，有望成 为资金追捧方向，建议关注牧原、温氏等龙头标的，以及低成本或有成 长属性的公司。 种业板块受政策驱动和阶段性粮价反弹的影响，可能带来投资机会，尤 其是在年末政策密集发布期和玉米价格出现修复性上涨时。 宠物食品行业面临国内竞争加剧和中美关税战影响，但头部企业如乖宝、 中宠有望胜出，需关注竞争格局优化和新消费板块的资金关注。 禽养殖方面，禽流感高发季可能刺激投资机会，需关注法国、美国等地 禽流感爆发情况。 Q&A 目前农业板块在市场中的表现如何？其估值水平和涨跌幅情况如何？ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the de-stocking of live pigs may accelerate, with a focus on the value reassessment opportunities in the pig sector due to ongoing regulatory measures [3][4] - The poultry sector is expected to see improvements in its fundamentals, while the animal health sector is poised for performance recovery and advancements in African swine fever vaccine clinical trials [5][6] - The pet economy is thriving, with strong growth in domestic brands, indicating a rapid development phase for the pet industry [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Swine - The swine industry is undergoing deepening regulatory measures aimed at controlling prices through capacity reduction. Short-term pressures on pig prices are anticipated due to increased market supply and inventory adjustments. The expectation is for a gradual policy approach rather than aggressive interventions [3][4][15] - Key companies recommended include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [3][16] 2. Poultry - The poultry sector shows signs of fundamental improvement, with data indicating a rise in the number of breeding stock and a shift towards self-breeding [4][25] - Recommendations include Shennong Development and Lihua Stockbreeding, as the industry navigates through low price periods [4][25] 3. Animal Health - The animal health sector has seen revenue and profit growth among listed companies, with notable performances from Reap Bio and Keqian Bio. The clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines are progressing, which may enhance market prospects [5][32] - Recommended companies include Keqian Bio, Reap Bio, and attention on Huazhong Bio and other related firms [5][32] 4. Planting - Grain prices are on the rise, with significant increases in corn and soybean meal prices noted. The commercialization of genetically modified seeds is progressing, benefiting companies with early investments in research and development [7][37] - Companies to watch include Suqian Agricultural Development, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [7][42] 5. Feed - The feed industry is experiencing price fluctuations, with a noted increase in production volume. The concentration of the industry is expected to continue rising [8][43] - Recommended companies include Haida Group and Hefa Shares [8][45] 6. Pets - The pet market is projected to reach a scale of 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth in both dog and cat segments. The report emphasizes the rapid development of domestic brands in this sector [9][54] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares, with a focus on the medical segment as well [9][55]

Core Viewpoint - The company has become the largest pig slaughtering enterprise in China, surpassing its competitor, and has achieved a 100% utilization rate of its slaughtering capacity in the industry [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, the company slaughtered 19.16 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 140%, with a capacity utilization rate of 88%. The third quarter saw a 100% utilization rate, resulting in a profit of over 30 million yuan for the quarter [3] - The company has improved its internal operations significantly this year, marking its first quarterly profit, indicating the effectiveness of its slaughtering business strategy and entering a new development phase [3] - The company plans to leverage the upcoming consumption peak before the Spring Festival to expand its customer base and sales channels, enhance product quality and service, and aim for a full-year turnaround to profitability [3] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company expects its slaughter volume to more than double compared to last year, with continued growth projected for 2026 [5] - In the third quarter, the company's slaughter volume increased by 27% compared to the second quarter, and the gross profit margin rose from 1.5% to 2.5% [5] - The company is focusing on its cutting products business, achieving an average daily cutting volume of around 30,000 pigs, with a cutting product proportion exceeding 30%, an increase of approximately 5 percentage points from the second quarter [5] Group 3: Industry Comparison - The company and its main competitor, have slaughtering capacities of approximately 29 million and 25 million pigs, respectively. The company's slaughter volumes for 2023 and 2024 are projected at 13.26 million and 12.52 million pigs, while the competitor's figures are 12.75 million and 10.28 million pigs [7] - The competitor reported a year-on-year increase of 26% in slaughter volume to 9.13 million pigs in the first three quarters, with a calculated capacity utilization rate of about 48% [7] - The competitor has no current plans for new factory construction but is exploring a light asset operation model for capacity expansion through collaboration with local enterprises [7]

Core Insights - The aquaculture sector experienced a significant increase of 2.88% on November 10, with Lihua Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4018.6, up 0.53%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13427.61, up 0.18% [1] Stock Performance - Lihua Co., Ltd. (300761) closed at 21.62, with a rise of 4.44% and a trading volume of 115,900 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 247 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Juxing Agriculture (603477) at 18.84, up 4.03% with a transaction value of 319 million yuan [1] - Muyuan Foods (002714) at 51.67, up 3.94% with a transaction value of 2.808 billion yuan [1] - Luoniushan (000735) at 8.42, up 3.69% with a transaction value of 937 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The aquaculture sector saw a net inflow of 253 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 151 million yuan [2][3] - The main stocks with significant capital inflow included: - Muyuan Foods with a net inflow of 14.5 million yuan [3] - Luoniushan with a net inflow of 53.76 million yuan [3] - New Hope (000876) with a net inflow of 50.58 million yuan [3]

证券日报网讯牧原股份11月10日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，二级市场股价受多种因素影响。公 司会聚焦主业，持续做好经营管理，提升生产效率与盈利能力，保证公司高质量稳定发展，更好地为股 东创造回报。同时，公司会加强与资本市场投资者的沟通，增强信息披露质量和透明度，根据发展阶段 及实际情况，综合运用多种方式稳定投资者信心，推动公司投资价值合理反映公司经营质量。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pig farming industry, suggesting a left-side layout opportunity as the industry enters a phase of accelerated capacity reduction driven by both fundamental and policy factors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the pig farming industry is experiencing a bottoming out of prices, with a notable increase in the utilization rate of breeding facilities, leading to a potential acceleration in capacity reduction. The current pig cycle is nearing its downward tail, making it an opportune time for left-side investments [2][3]. - The pet food market is showing strong performance from domestic brands during the Double Eleven sales event, indicating a growing market for domestic pet food products. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of leading companies in this sector [2][3]. - The white feather broiler chicken market is witnessing stable chick prices and a slight recovery in chicken meat prices, suggesting a focus on leading companies for long-term value amidst a backdrop of abundant supply [2][3]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 0.8%, mirroring the performance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. The top five gainers included Pingtan Development (25.7%), Green Kang Bio (11.7%), and Huazi Industry (11.3%) [3]. Pig Farming - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with the average selling price of external three yuan pigs at 11.9 yuan/kg, down 3.6% week-on-week. The average loss for self-breeding sows was -41.1 yuan/head, marking the sixth consecutive week of losses [2][3]. - The report highlights that the number of breeding sows has decreased by 0.77% month-on-month, indicating a proactive capacity reduction in response to ongoing losses [2][3]. Pet Food - The Double Eleven sales event revealed that domestic brands dominated the pet food market, with significant representation in the top-selling brands. The report suggests that the domestic pet food market remains a high-growth sector despite short-term export challenges [2][3]. Broiler Chicken Farming - The average selling price of white feather broiler chicks was 3.45 yuan/chick, with a week-on-week increase of 1.47%. The average selling price of broiler chickens was 3.49 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight recovery [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [46]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pig farming industry is experiencing a bottoming out of prices, driven by both fundamental and policy factors, which may accelerate capacity reduction [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on left-side investment opportunities in the pig farming sector as the current pig cycle approaches its downward tail [2][3]. - The domestic pet food market is identified as a high-growth area, with strong performance from local brands during the "Double Eleven" sales event, suggesting a positive growth trajectory for leading companies in this segment [2][3]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural Index rose by 0.8%, mirroring the performance of the CSI 300 Index [3]. - The top five gainers included Pingtan Development (25.7%), Green Kang Biotechnology (11.7%), and Huazi Industrial (11.3%) [3][10]. Pig Farming - Pig prices are stabilizing, with a national average selling price of 11.9 CNY/kg as of November 9, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.6% [2]. - The average weight of pigs sold is at a three-year high of 128.3 kg, indicating a potential for improved profitability as the industry undergoes capacity reduction [2][3]. Pet Food - Domestic pet food brands performed exceptionally well during the "Double Eleven" sales, with top brands being predominantly local [2]. - The report suggests that the pet food market remains a high-growth area, with recommendations to focus on leading companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co [2][3]. Chicken Farming - The price of white feather broiler chicks remains stable, with an average selling price of 3.45 CNY/chick, indicating a reasonable profit margin in the industry [2]. - The report notes that the supply of broiler chickens is expected to remain ample throughout 2025, emphasizing the importance of focusing on leading companies for long-term value [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is experiencing accelerated declines in breeding stock, with a reported decrease of 0.77% in October compared to the previous month. The average price of pork in October was 11.69 yuan/kg, down 1.41% month-on-month, indicating a potential ongoing capacity reduction in the industry [5][18] - The policy direction in the industry is shifting towards protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation, suggesting that future growth stocks will focus more on technological content and innovative models [6][19] - The poultry sector is facing a persistent contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," leading to losses that may force breeding farms to reduce production capacity [7][19] - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group due to its management effectiveness and expected growth in production capacity [8][20] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - In October, the breeding stock decreased by 0.77%, with a significant increase in the culling of sows by approximately 12.41%. The industry is expected to enter a phase of active capacity reduction as prices fall below cost levels [5][18] - The government is implementing capacity control measures to stabilize pork prices, which may lead to improved profitability for listed companies as costs decline [6][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of chicken chicks in Yantai was reported at 3.50 yuan/chick, down 2.8% month-on-month and 20.5% year-on-year. The price of broiler chickens was 3.45 yuan/kg, also down 2.8% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year [7][19] - The industry is expected to see an increase in market share for integrated enterprises and contract farming due to ongoing losses [7][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report highlights a slight decline in aquatic product prices, with various fish species showing mixed performance in price changes [8][20] - Hai Da Group is recommended for its expected growth and effective management, with a focus on increasing market share and overseas growth [9][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is showing an increase in sales growth compared to September, indicating a trend towards higher market concentration among leading brands [10][22] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with strong brand performance and those actively expanding their domestic market presence [25] 5. Agricultural Products - The report notes that soybean prices have reached new highs, but domestic soybean meal prices remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak downstream purchasing sentiment [14][26] - The rubber market is expected to continue fluctuating, influenced by macroeconomic factors and stable import levels [14][26] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4679, up 0.82% from the previous week, while the Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2970, up 0.79% [27][30] - The report indicates that the agricultural sector is experiencing a significant increase in investment value due to its unique characteristics and historical low valuations [14][26]