生猪产能去化或加速，宠物内销增长亮眼 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.11.23 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -8% -2% 5% 11% 17% 23% 农林牧渔 沪深300 分析师 王聪 SAC 证书编号：S0160525110001 wangcong@ctsec.com 分析师 肖珮菁 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070005 xiaopj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《宠物双十一国产品牌表现亮眼》 2025-11-16 2. 《生猪供应仍存压力，产能去化或加速》 2025-11-09 3. 《生猪养殖持续亏损，产能去化或加速》 2025-11-02 农业重点数据跟踪周报 核心观点 | 表 1：重点公司投资评级 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 公司 | 总市值（亿 | 收盘价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE | | 投资评级 | | | | 元） | （11.21） | 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for pork is expected to support prices as the year-end peak season approaches, despite a decline in prices due to overproduction and accelerated culling of sows [3][12] - The suspension of imports of Japanese seafood is beneficial for the domestic aquaculture sector, as it reduces competition and supports local prices [4][18] - The pet industry is experiencing growth driven by consumer upgrades and increased domestic production, with significant market potential projected for the coming years [22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The culling of breeding sows has accelerated, with the national average price of live pigs at 11.62 yuan/kg as of November 21, 2025, down 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.75% year-on-year [11][12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 128.81 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week [11] - Cold weather is expected to boost pork consumption, providing support for prices during the peak season [12] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to accelerated culling of sows. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [22] - The feed sector is benefiting from strong demand, with domestic production expected to improve due to recovery in livestock numbers [22] - The pet market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic brands due to rising consumer preferences and tariff barriers [22] Market Performance (November 17-21) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% and the agricultural index down 3.45% [24] - The fishery sector led gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongshui Fishery (+61.05%) and others [24][30] Price Tracking (November 17-21) - The average price of live pigs was 11.64 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets increased to 19.15 yuan/kg [35] - The price of corn futures rose slightly to 2183.00 yuan/ton, while soybean meal futures decreased to 2427.00 yuan/ton [46][50]

行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 23 日 猪价低迷产能去化加快，关注宠食龙头成 长确定性 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.11.17-2025.11.23） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 3.4%，沪深 300 下跌 3.8%。个股涨幅前五名：中水渔业（61.0%）、荃银 高科（27.4%）、国联水产（22.5%）、獐子岛（14.7%）、永安林业（13.4%）。投资分析意见：猪价 低迷养殖亏损加剧，关注产能去化加速。肥猪供给压力仍大，猪价旺季不旺养殖亏损或进一 ...

白羽鸡：虽然2024年祖代种鸡进口同比增加，但未恢复至引种中断前正常年份引种数量；预计2025年优 质父母代鸡苗需求较好；加之受海外引种大幅下降影响，2025年下半年父母代鸡苗供给将更紧，后续也 将影响2026年商品代鸡苗的供给。看好种禽端景气，重点推荐成本改善的一体化龙头企业圣农发展。 黄羽鸡：当前父母代种鸡存栏已降至历史偏低位水平，再加之行业亏损持续了一段时间，供给收缩为后 续鸡价上涨奠定基础。当前黄鸡养殖成本回落至低位，四季度需求有望支撑鸡价景气并带动盈利释放。 重点推荐立华股份。 后周期：需求边际修复，龙头海外维持高增 饲料方面，生猪养殖和禽养殖板块存栏逐步恢复，带动畜禽料需求明显修复，下游水产养殖端景气度回 升提振水产料需求。饲料需求整体呈现恢复趋势。展望25Q4，畜禽料需求景气有望持续，水产料需求 逐步步入淡季，龙头市占率有望继续提升。此外，龙头饲企海外扩张或打开成长空间。重点推荐海大集 团。 动保方面，受益于下游养殖端盈利持续，动保需求整体呈现恢复趋势，具备产品力优势的动保公司盈利 率先修复。展望25Q4，预计主要动保公司盈利端或呈改善趋势。标的选择方面，重点推荐科前生物， 建议关注生物股份、瑞 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of identifying and capturing turning points in the agricultural sector in 2026, focusing on core indicators and finding entry points within a relatively reasonable valuation range [1] Group 1: Swine Breeding - The swine breeding sector is expected to benefit from changes in supply and demand, with a continued emphasis on a balanced approach of offense and defense [1] - The investment opportunities in the swine breeding sector arise from changes in production capacity affecting pig price expectations, with a recommendation to focus on major players like Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), as well as smaller companies like Tiankang Biological (002100) and Shennong Group (605296) [1] - Despite a generally pessimistic outlook on pig prices based on current data, there is potential for changes within the industry that could lead to investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Pet Food - The pet food sector is characterized by sustained growth and significant market share expansion potential, with export growth serving as a shield for performance and the development of proprietary brands as a spear for future market share increases [2] - The report suggests that companies in the pet food industry should focus on maintaining or exceeding growth expectations for their proprietary brands while leveraging multi-brand operations [2] - Key companies to watch in the pet food sector include Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891), Guibao Pet (301498), and Petty (300673), with additional attention on Yuanfei Pet (001222) [2]

相关ETF方面，农业ETF天弘（512620）今日重磅上市，该ETF紧密跟踪中证农业指数，覆盖养殖、农 化等领域，成分股汇聚牧原股份、温氏股份、海大集团等农业龙头企业，实现多元化布局，还配置了场 外联接基金（A类010769，C类010770）。 11月20日，A股三大指数集体收跌，农林牧渔板块部分个股表现强势。截至收盘，中证农业指数跌 0.18%；成分股中，罗牛山涨超7%，藏格矿业、华英农业、生物股份等股涨幅居前。 消息面上，继农业农村部召开全国推进种业振兴行动现场会后，近日农业农村部、新疆维吾尔自治区人 民政府发布了关于印发《推动南疆现代设施农业高质量发展工作方案》的通知。其中提出发展目标，到 2028年底，实施老旧设施现代化改造3万亩（含兵团），新增现代设施农业生产规模2万亩（含兵团）， 重点打造现代设施农业生产县（市）和兵团师（市）15个。 东兴证券表示，种业振兴和生物育种产业化作为种植提质增产的重要技术手段，产业化进程有望稳步推 进。政策引导下，养殖、种植产业链头部企业有望逐步向下游精深加工延伸，平抑价格周期波动影响， 提升盈利能力，建议关注产业链布局较为完善的农业龙头企业。 中金公司表示，政策支持 ...

融资方面，牧原股份当日融资买入7070.12万元。当前融资余额50.21亿元，占流通市值的1.91%，融资 余额低于近一年30%分位水平，处于低位。 融券方面，牧原股份11月20日融券偿还4.01万股，融券卖出5000.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 24.11万元；融券余量40.97万股，融券余额1975.64万元，超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 资料显示，牧原食品股份有限公司位于河南省南阳市卧龙区龙升工业园区,香港铜锣湾希慎道33号利园1 期19楼1920室，成立日期2000年7月13日，上市日期2014年1月28日，公司主营业务涉及生猪的养殖销 售、生猪屠宰。主营业务收入构成为：生猪98.68%，屠宰、肉食产品25.30%，饲料原料1.63%，其他 0.49%。 11月20日，牧原股份跌0.47%，成交额8.24亿元。两融数据显示，当日牧原股份获融资买入额7070.12万 元，融资偿还8365.94万元，融资净买入-1295.83万元。截至11月20日，牧原股份融资融券余额合计 50.41亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，牧原股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流 ...

Market Overview - The aquaculture sector declined by 0.69% on November 20, with Yike Food leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the aquaculture sector included: - Luoniushan (000735) with a closing price of 8.70, up 7.27% on a trading volume of 1.32 million shares and a turnover of 1.134 billion [1] - Fucheng Co. (600965) closed at 6.06, up 3.41% with a trading volume of 654,700 shares and a turnover of 401 million [1] - Huaying Agriculture (002321) closed at 3.60, up 2.56% with a trading volume of 3.57 million shares and a turnover of 1.309 billion [1] - Major decliners included: - Yike Food (301116) closed at 13.29, down 5.41% with a trading volume of 420,100 shares and a turnover of 549 million [2] - ST Tianshan (300313) closed at 9.40, down 5.24% with a trading volume of 68,000 shares and a turnover of 67 million [2] - Xiangjia Co. (002982) closed at 14.91, down 3.12% with a trading volume of 54,400 shares and a turnover of 81.7 million [2] Capital Flow - The aquaculture sector experienced a net outflow of 47.59 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 60.96 million [2] - Conversely, speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 109 million [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Luoniushan (000735) had a net inflow of 16.6 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 1.48 million [3] - Fucheng Co. (600965) experienced a net inflow of 57.81 million from institutional investors, with a significant outflow of 54.22 million from retail investors [3] - Yike Food (301116) had a net outflow of 17.90 million from institutional investors [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price remains weak, and the logic of destocking may gradually strengthen. The price of pigs is currently at 11.85 yuan/kg, with the industry facing losses [3][18] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation. The report anticipates that under the influence of capacity control policies, pig prices may stop falling and rebound earlier than expected [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality development in the industry, with a clear direction for capacity control policies. Companies that lead in cost and connect with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine sector is experiencing fluctuations, with DeKang Agriculture leading the gains at +9% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, and futures prices are rising, but the stock market has not reacted [3][18] - The report emphasizes the need for solution-oriented enterprises as the industry policy shifts towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [4][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector continues to face a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the price of broiler chickens at 3.50 yuan/kg and chick prices at 3.60 yuan each. The report suggests that integrated enterprises may increase their market share due to losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [5][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the domestic industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization. The company is expected to achieve growth beyond expectations [6][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a strong concentration of leading brands, with the top five brands remaining stable. The report notes that the competition among leading brands is intensifying, leading to potential pressure on profit margins, but sales growth remains high [9][21] - The report predicts that the market concentration will increase, with the CR5 expected to reach nearly 40% in the next five years [11][23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's November supply and demand report did not exceed expectations, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices. The report indicates that domestic soybean inventories are high, and the supply remains sufficient [13][25] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, with agricultural product processing performing the best at +6.40% [26]

Group 1 - The three major indices collectively rose, with the agriculture sector showing significant gains, as evidenced by the 0.73% increase in the China Securities Agriculture Index [1] - A new agriculture-focused ETF, Tianhong (512620), is set to launch on November 21, tracking the China Securities Agriculture Index and covering sectors such as breeding and agrochemicals, featuring leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on November 13 to promote the revitalization of the seed industry, emphasizing the need for high-quality development and self-sufficiency in seed technology [1] Group 2 - Guosheng Securities highlights that the revitalization of the seed industry is crucial for advancing new agricultural productivity, with significant breakthroughs in biotechnology expected to reshape the industry landscape [2] - Guoxin Securities anticipates that by 2026, leading companies in the pig and poultry breeding chains will strengthen, shifting investment focus from capital expenditure to cash flow generation [2] - The official capacity regulation is expected to enhance cash flow for leading enterprises in the pig industry, while the poultry sector is projected to see limited supply fluctuations, benefiting from demand recovery [2]