Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][4]. Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to see a reversal in the meat and dairy cycle within the year, supporting long-term pig prices due to internal adjustments [1]. - The pig market is anticipated to stabilize as capacity control measures improve cash flow for leading companies, enhancing their competitive edge [3]. - The beef and raw milk sectors are projected to experience a cyclical upturn, benefiting from both domestic and international market conditions [3]. - Poultry supply is expected to remain stable, with leading companies likely to achieve higher cash flow returns as demand recovers [3]. - The feed industry is set to deepen industrialization, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages to widen their competitive gap [3]. - The pet industry is identified as a growing sector, benefiting from demographic trends [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - Weekly pig price as of March 13 is 10.03 CNY/kg, down 2.53% week-on-week and down 31.16% year-on-year [13]. - Weekly chicken price remains stable at 7.00 CNY/kg, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.86% [14]. - Beef price for fattened bulls is 25.30 CNY/kg, up 0.4% week-on-week and up 6% year-on-year [2][15]. - Raw milk price is stable at 3.03 CNY/kg, down 2% year-on-year [2]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The industry is undergoing orderly internal adjustments, which are expected to support profitability for low-cost pig enterprises [13]. 2.2 Poultry - Supply is slightly increasing, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [14]. 2.3 Beef - A new round of beef price increases is beginning, with a positive outlook for the beef cycle [2]. 2.4 Raw Milk - The reduction in dairy cow numbers is expected to continue, potentially leading to a price turning point for raw milk [2]. 2.5 Soybean Meal - Valuations are at historical lows, with attention on oil prices and trade catalysts [2]. 2.6 Corn - Strong bottom support is noted, with a tightening supply-demand balance expected [2]. 3. Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Recommended companies include: - For livestock: YouRan MuYe (优然牧业), Modern Farming (现代牧业) [4]. - For pigs: HuaTong Co. (华统股份), DeKang Agriculture (德康农牧), MuYuan (牧原股份) [4]. - For poultry: LiHua Co. (立华股份), YiSheng Co. (益生股份) [4]. - For feed: HaiDa Group (海大集团) [4]. - For pets: GuaiBao Pets (乖宝宠物) [4].

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月14日 金融工程专题研究 一键布局养殖周期拐点——中证畜牧养殖产业指数投资价值分析 一键布局养殖周期拐点 生猪养殖行业正处在周期底部的关键窗口期。自 2025 年下半年以来， 猪价持续底部震荡，产能去化加速推进。2026 年 3 月，发改委联合农 业部进一步将能繁母猪存栏目标下调至 3650 万头，政策调控趋严，产 能收缩路径明确，为 2026-2027 年猪价中枢回归至合理盈利水平奠定基 础。 中证畜牧养殖产业指数投资价值分析 中证畜牧养殖产业指数（931946.CSI）发布于 2023 年 7 月 28 日，该 指数选取畜牧产品、动物保健与育种、饲料、肉制品、乳制品行业的上 市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映畜牧养殖产业上市公司证券的整体表 现。 持仓高度集中，聚焦产业链龙头。截至 2026 年 2 月 28 日，指数前十大 权重股合计占比 66.47%，其中牧原股份、温氏股份两大生猪养殖龙头 合计占比近 30%，养殖业权重占比超 54%，饲料加工占比 15.41%，产 业链代表性纯粹。指数成分股平均市值 239.67 亿元，小盘风格显著， 在周期反转阶段具备较高弹性。 估值 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 MUYUAN FOODS CO., LTD. 牧原食品股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）茲通告謹定於2026年3月27 日（星期五）舉行董事會會議，以考慮及通過（其中包括）本公司及其附屬公司截至 2025年12月31日止年度之全年業績及其發佈，考慮建議派發末期股息（如有）及處 理其他事項。 承董事會命 牧原食品股份有限公司 董事長兼總裁 秦英林先生 中國，河南省南陽市 2026年3月13日 於本公告日期，董事會成員包括：(i)執行董事秦英林先生、曹治年先生及楊瑞 華女士；(ii)非執行董事錢瑛女士及蘇黨林先生；及(iii)獨立非執行董事周明笙先 生、閻磊先生及馮根福先生。 牧原食品股份有限公司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：2714） 董事會會議通告 ...

证券代码：002714 债券代码：127045 证券简称：牧原股份 债券简称：牧原转债 公告编号：2026-025 一、会议召开和出席情况 1、会议召集人：公司董事会 牧原食品股份有限公司 2026 年第一次临时股东会决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示 牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）于 2026 年 2 月 26 日 在《证券时报》《中国证券报》《上海证券报》《证券日报》和巨潮资讯网站上 刊登了《关于召开 2026 年第一次临时股东会的通知》。 本次股东会以现场表决与网络表决相结合的方式召开。本次股东会无否决议 案的情况，无修改议案的情况。 2、会议主持人：曹治年 3、会议召开时间 （1）现场会议召开时间：2026 年 3 月 13 日下午 15:00 （2）网络投票时间为：通过深圳证券交易所交易系统进行网络投票的具体 时间为 2026 年 3 月 13 日交易日上午 9:15-9:25，9:30-11:30，下午 13:00-15:00； 通过深圳证券交易所互联网投票系统进行网络投票的时间为 2026 年 ...

北京市朝阳区建外大街丁 12 号英皇集团中心 8、9、11 层 8/9/11/F, Emperor Group Centre, No.12D, Jianwai Avenue, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100022, P.R.China 电话/Tel.:010-50867666 传真/Fax:010-56916450 网址/Website:www.kangdalawyers.com 北京 西安 深圳 海口 上海 广州 杭州 沈阳 南京 天津 菏泽 成都 苏州 呼和浩特 香港 武汉 郑州 长沙 厦门 重庆 合肥 宁波 济南 昆明 南昌 北京市康达律师事务所 关于 牧原食品股份有限公司 2026 年第一次临时股东会的法律意见书 康达股会字【2026】第 0046 号 致：牧原食品股份有限公司 本所律师根据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称"《公司法》"）、《中华人民共和国 证券法》（以下简称"《证券法》"）、《上市公司股东会规则》（以下简称"《股东会规则》"）、 《深圳证券交易所上市公司股东会网络投票实施细则》《牧原食品股份有限公司章程》（以下 简称"《公司章程》"）等规定，就本次会 ...

强 call 猪：猪价跌、体重增的背后 摘要 行业深陷全成本亏损（260 元/头），产能去化处于早期（1%-4%）， 仅达 2023 年去化程度的 30%。 2026 年 3-4 月猪价超预期下跌将启动产能去化主升浪，是布局养猪板 块的关键时间点。 上市猪企资产负债率不降反升，叠加二级市场融资环境严峻，本轮去化 深度与广度将超 2023 年。 消费疲软导致被动压栏，肥标差降至节前不足 60%，3-4 月猪价底部震 荡压力巨大。 饲料成本上涨（50-100 元/吨）推升养殖成本 0.1-0.3 元/公斤，加速二 次育肥及全行业产能出清。 投资策略：首选盈利兑现度高的头部企业（牧原、温氏、德康），关注 成本领先的中小标的（立华、神农）。 周期节奏：2026 年主线为产能去化，年底或有小幅上涨，真正的右侧 反转预计出现在 2027 年。 Q&A 当前生猪价格水平如何，由此引发的行业亏损对产能去化的影响有多大，与 2023 年的去化周期相比，目前处于何种阶段？ 春节后出栏体重连续数周增加，主要原因并非养殖户看好后市而主动压栏，而 是由于消费终端走货不畅导致的被动压栏。具体表现为，大猪销售困难，肥猪 与标猪之间的价差（ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for live pig sales is progressing slowly, with a divergence in performance among leading enterprises. Supply is expected to remain loose in the coming six months [4] - The cash flow pressure in the industry is significant, with expectations of deep losses in the second quarter as both live pigs and piglets may face substantial deficits [4][56] - The industry is currently at a cyclical bottom, with cash flow continuously depleting and pessimistic expectations accelerating capacity reduction [82] Summary by Sections 1. Sales Volume - The industry sales progress in February was below expectations, with a completion rate of only 95%. March is expected to see a 25% increase in planned sales compared to February [8] - The actual sales volume for February was 21.75 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 19% but a month-on-month decrease of 22% [16] - The estimated theoretical total output of commodity pigs for the first half of 2026 is expected to increase by 7.84% year-on-year [8] 2. Pig Prices and Profits - February pig prices showed a decline of 24% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month, with average profits turning negative at -99 yuan per head [56] - The price of piglets saw a seasonal increase in February, but the sentiment for replenishment is expected to weaken [59] - The price difference between fattened pigs and market pigs expanded seasonally but remains lower year-on-year [63] 3. Production Capacity - The breeding stock showed a slight increase in February, but the industry is expected to face ongoing cash flow issues leading to accelerated capacity reduction [76] - As of December 2025, the breeding sow inventory was 39.61 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 2.87%, indicating a persistent overcapacity issue [79] - The industry is advised to optimize capacity by eliminating low-yield sows and enhancing the breeding of high-efficiency pigs [79] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that it is an opportune time to invest in leading breeding enterprises during this low cycle phase [82] - Recommended companies include DeKang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Wen's Foodstuffs, among others [84]

Core Insights - The report highlights the strengthening of mid-cap blue-chip stocks amid geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the importance of supply chain resilience and energy security [2][4][6] - It suggests that the market will continue to exhibit a slightly strong oscillating pattern, with a comparative advantage in China's asset risk evaluation [3][4] - The report identifies agricultural companies as having significant growth potential due to rising prices driven by geopolitical disturbances and opportunities for overseas expansion [5][6] Market Strategy - The geopolitical situation, particularly the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, is impacting global asset prices and risk preferences, leading to a rise in overall risk evaluation [3][4] - The report anticipates that the market will maintain a slightly strong oscillating pattern, with mid-cap blue-chip stocks gaining traction as a safer investment option [3][4] - Relevant ETFs include the CSI 500 ETF and cash flow-related ETFs, which are expected to perform well in this environment [3] Style Strategy - The report notes a shift in investment focus from cyclical price increases to broader themes of "safety" and "self-sufficiency" within mid-cap blue-chip stocks [4] - It highlights a rotation within the mid-cap blue-chip style, where agricultural sectors are becoming more attractive due to their lower valuations compared to previously high-performing cyclical sectors [4][6] Industry Strategy - The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from rising commodity prices, with a confirmed upward trend in grain prices and favorable conditions for planting and seed industries [5] - Domestic agricultural companies are poised to expand their growth potential through international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, where demand for improved living standards is increasing [5][6] - Key agricultural stocks identified for investment include Longping High-Tech (000998), Muyuan Foods (002714), and Haida Group (002311) [5][6] Theme Strategy - The report forecasts robust growth in the renewable energy sector, with an expected average annual installed capacity of 200 GW from 2026 to 2035, and a significant share of new power installations coming from wind and solar energy [6] - It emphasizes that the transition from a growth to a cyclical investment logic in renewable energy is underway, while still highlighting growth opportunities in niche areas such as offshore wind and new technologies [6] - Relevant stocks in the renewable energy sector include Dongfang Cable (603606) and Jiazhe New Energy (601619) [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of industry demand fluctuations on the company's revenue and profit margins, with a noted decline in various product sales and overall revenue [5][6][7] Company Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 4.474 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 8.78% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 690 million yuan, down 26.87% [4] - Sales volume and revenue for most products declined, except for the aluminum-plastic cap plastic bottle series, which saw a slight increase in sales volume to 933 million units, up 4.81% [5] - The molded bottle series experienced a sales volume of 330,300 tons and revenue of 2.033 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.79% and 13.59% respectively [5] - The company’s comprehensive gross margin improved to 33.31%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure optimization and automation [6] - The net profit margin for 2025 was reported at 15.41%, a decrease of 3.82 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by inventory write-down losses and increased management expenses [7] Financial Health - The company's asset-liability ratio decreased to 17.42%, down 3.61 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved financial stability [8] - Cash and cash equivalents accounted for 10.69% of total assets, an increase of 0.18 percentage points, providing a solid foundation for risk management and future growth [8] Strategic Developments - The company plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Malaysia to expand its overseas business, with exports in 2025 reaching 1.502 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.98% [8] - A directed share issuance is set to change the actual controller to a subsidiary of China National Pharmaceutical Group, which is expected to enhance collaboration and development opportunities [10]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the oil and gas, petrochemical, agriculture, and livestock industries, focusing on the impact of geopolitical conflicts and oil price fluctuations on these sectors [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. Key Points and Arguments Oil Price Projections - Oil prices are expected to rise from a previous range of $60-70 per barrel to a new range of $70-80 per barrel due to a supply gap of 6 million barrels per day caused by geopolitical tensions and increased strategic reserve demands [1][3]. - The potential for oil prices to exceed $80 per barrel could lead to a significant increase in fuel ethanol demand, which would impact corn supply and raise fertilizer costs, driving agricultural prices upward in the medium to long term [1][3]. Petrochemical Sector Insights - The midstream refining sector is expected to experience a widening of profit margins, contrary to common concerns that rising oil prices would compress profits. The PX price spread has already widened, indicating effective cost transmission [4][5]. - The refining sector is currently facing tight supply conditions, and the anticipated increase in oil prices may lead to chemical product price increases that could outpace oil price rises, thus widening refining margins [4][5]. Agricultural Sector Dynamics - The rise in oil prices is expected to affect agricultural products through three main channels: increased demand for biofuels, rising production costs for fertilizers and pesticides, and higher transportation costs [5][6]. - Specific impacts include: - **Corn**: Rising biofuel demand due to oil prices exceeding $80 per barrel is expected to drive corn prices up, despite a relatively loose domestic supply forecast for 2025 [5][6]. - **Soybeans and Soymeal**: While global soybean supply is expected to be ample in 2025, rising production costs could support soybean and soymeal prices [6]. - **Livestock**: The livestock sector, particularly pig farming, is facing increased costs due to rising feed prices, leading to accelerated capacity exit in the industry. The average price of pigs has dropped to around 10 yuan per kilogram, which is below the cash cost line for leading companies like Muyuan Foods [6][7]. Investment Strategies - A "neutral to defensive, structurally offensive" strategy is recommended for convertible bonds, with a focus on large-cap low-priced bonds to mitigate risk [2]. - Key sectors for investment include: - **Petrochemical**: Focus on companies like Hengyi Petrochemical and Qixiang Tengda, which are expected to benefit from market conditions [1][5]. - **Agriculture**: Emphasis on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, which are positioned well despite current market challenges [7]. - The current market environment presents new investment opportunities, particularly in sectors that are expected to benefit from rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions [2][3]. Additional Considerations - The records highlight the importance of monitoring specific bond terms and avoiding high premium or near-call bonds, while favoring those with clear conversion intentions and reasonable debt ratios [2]. - The overall sentiment indicates a potential for significant market movements in the agricultural and petrochemical sectors, suggesting that now is a critical time for strategic investments [7].