行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 17 日 猪价震荡走弱亏损幅度扩大，上市宠企 "双十一"销售表现亮眼 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.11.9-2025.11.16） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - 证券分析师 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 2.7%，沪深 300 下跌 1.1%。个股涨幅前五名：绿康生化（27.6%）、 ST 佳沃（23.2%）、平潭发展（22.2%）、中粮糖业（18.0%）、粤海饲料（15.6%），跌幅前五 名：邦基科技（-22.2%）、安德利（-13.1%）、乖宝宠物（-5.0 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，10月，14家上市猪企合计出栏生猪1720.04万头，环比 +23.20%，同比+25.85%。头部集团中，牧原股份/温氏股份/新希望生猪出栏量环比分别 +26.97%/+17.07%/+20.87%。10月处于双节消费旺季之后的空窗期，家庭消费、餐饮需求均有所回落， 受前期二育集中出栏以及规模场出栏前置的影响，行业供给压力明显提升，供强需弱格局下全国商品猪 价格大幅下跌。当前猪价现实与预期双弱，叠加政策驱动，生猪养殖行业去产能有望启动。 东方证券主要观点如下： 10月行业出栏大增带动跌价 投资建议 (1)企业普遍呈现超越季节性的出栏增幅。14家上市猪企合计出栏生猪1720.04万头，环比+23.20%，同 比+25.85%。头部集团中，牧原股份/温氏股份/新希望生猪出栏量环比分别+26.97%/+17.07%/+20.87%。 具体来看，1)商品猪方面：10月份集团场出栏显著放量，14家上市猪企出栏商品猪总量约为1537.18万 头，环比+23.96%，同比+24.58%。2)仔猪方面：10月14家猪企仔猪出栏总量约为182.86万头，环比 +17.17%，同比+37 ...

牧业大周期：行业大反转预计在即。1）牛肉与牛奶双品种有望反转：国内 肉牛产能去化级别或及 2019 年猪周期，2025 年已迎来价格拐点，后续 有望持续上涨至 2027 年。国内原奶价格已累计下跌近 4 年，持续亏损 带来产能出清压力，同时肉奶比价已至历史高位，后续有望推动奶牛淘 汰加快，实现"肉奶共振"。2）国内与国外两个市场协同涨价：海外牛 肉价格在主产区减产推动下，已进入上行周期，叠加进口调控，未来国 内进口牛肉预计量减价增。原奶进口方面，全球奶粉持续去库，景气重 回上行通道，目前进口大包粉已失去性价比，后续在国内产能收缩和进 口减量共同推动下，国内原奶供需格局预计改善，价格有望迎来修复。 猪禽养殖链：弱化周期，强化龙头。未来投资将从注重周期节奏转向公司管 理内核，从重视资本开支转向现金流创造。1）生猪：官方产能调控将加速 头部企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩 的背景下，龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。2）禽养殖：供给 波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势 有望实现更高现金流分红回报。3）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分 工明确，饲料龙头凭借技术 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月17日 农林牧渔 2026 年度投资策略 优于大市 掘金牧业景气大周期，把握养殖龙头估值切换 牧业大周期：行业大反转预计在即。1）牛肉与牛奶双品种有望反转：国内 肉牛产能去化级别或及 2019 年猪周期，2025 年已迎来价格拐点，后续 有望持续上涨至 2027 年。国内原奶价格已累计下跌近 4 年，持续亏损 带来产能出清压力，同时肉奶比价已至历史高位，后续有望推动奶牛淘 汰加快，实现"肉奶共振"。2）国内与国外两个市场协同涨价：海外牛 肉价格在主产区减产推动下，已进入上行周期，叠加进口调控，未来国 内进口牛肉预计量减价增。原奶进口方面，全球奶粉持续去库，景气重 回上行通道，目前进口大包粉已失去性价比，后续在国内产能收缩和进 口减量共同推动下，国内原奶供需格局预计改善，价格有望迎来修复。 猪禽养殖链：弱化周期，强化龙头。未来投资将从注重周期节奏转向公司管 理内核，从重视资本开支转向现金流创造。1）生猪：官方产能调控将加速 头部企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩 的背景下，龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。2）禽养殖：供给 波动幅度有限，行情有望随需 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the pork market, with prices experiencing a downward trend, currently at 11.90 CNY/kg, a decrease of 1.18% week-on-week. The market is characterized by a supply-demand tug-of-war, with large-scale pig farms adopting strategies to control supply and increase prices [2][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of the seed industry revitalization action plan, aiming for high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on technological self-reliance and independent control of seed sources [1][11] - The report suggests that the commercialization of genetically modified crops will accelerate, significantly impacting yield improvements and self-sufficiency rates for key varieties [1][11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to promote the revitalization of the seed industry, emphasizing the need for high-quality development and technological independence. Key actions include improving seed quality, protecting intellectual property, and enhancing biosecurity measures [1][11] - Recommended companies in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on leading seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][11] Swine Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.90 CNY/kg, with a notable decrease in losses for self-bred pigs to 114.81 CNY per head and 205.64 CNY for purchased piglets. The industry is still in a loss-making state but is seeing a reduction in losses compared to previous weeks [2][12] - The report anticipates a long-term upward adjustment in domestic pig prices, driven by policy guidance aimed at improving quality and efficiency in the industry [2][12] - Recommended stocks in the swine sector include companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and DeKang Agriculture [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2256.27 CNY/ton, up 0.92% week-on-week [25] - Wheat: The average price is 2485.11 CNY/ton, down 0.15% week-on-week [28] - Soybeans: The average price is 4011.58 CNY/ton, up 0.10% week-on-week [40] - Cotton: The average price is 14640.00 CNY/ton, up 0.10% week-on-week [45]

此外，当前奶价已跌破上一轮周期底部，原奶供需失衡压力凸显。天风证券指出，受持续亏损影响，奶 牛存栏量连续数月环比下降，10月累计去化超8%，产能出清接近尾声。与此同时，肉牛价格步入上行 通道，叠加冬季消费旺季来临，预计11-12月价格将震荡上行。中长期来看，受补栏意愿低迷等因素制 约，肉牛周期涨幅或超预期，具备母牛资源的企业将迎来盈利改善机遇。 截至2025年11月17日 10:26，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)成分股方面涨跌互现，天马科技(603668)领涨 5.06%，美农生物(301156)上涨1.40%，生物股份(600201)上涨0.67%；金新农(002548)领跌。养殖 ETF(516760)最新报价0.7元。 消息面上，生猪养殖行业已连续多周处于亏损状态，产能去化正在加速。中泰证券分析指出，2025年第 三季度全国商品猪均价同比下跌28%，主要上市猪企归母净利润同比下滑68%。当前行业资产负债率控 制得当，但出栏增速与成本控制呈现明显分化，效率驱动正逐步取代周期驱动成为核心竞争力。在持续 亏损与政策引导下，预计后续产能去化将加快，为未来价格中枢回升奠定基础。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | ...

Core Insights - The article compares four major companies in the consumer sector: China Duty Free Group, Midea Group, Yili, and Muyuan Foods, highlighting their performance and potential as leaders in the current market environment [1] Company Summaries China Duty Free Group - The company has partnerships with approximately 1,600 brands and operates around 200 duty-free stores across over 100 cities [3] - In Q3, revenue decreased by 7% and net profit fell by 22%, reflecting broader economic challenges [3] - The current P/E ratio is about 44.9, slightly above its historical average of 43.84, indicating a modest recovery from historical lows [3] - Recent technical signals suggest a potential upward trend after a period of decline [3] Midea Group - Midea is recognized for its stability in the home appliance sector, with a strong presence in smart home solutions and core appliance components [3] - Q3 revenue grew by 13% and profit increased by 19%, marking 12 consecutive years of profit growth [3] - The current P/E ratio is approximately 12.1, below the historical average of 15.33, suggesting it is undervalued [3] - The stock has shown resilience and is nearing a breakout after a prolonged period of consolidation [3] Yili - Yili is a leading player in the food and beverage industry, with a diverse product range and a global footprint [5] - In Q3, the net profit grew by 18%, while revenue saw a slight increase of 1.71% [5] - The current P/E ratio is around 12.9, significantly lower than the historical average of 29, indicating potential undervaluation [5] - The stock has been in a consolidation phase since November 2022 [5] Muyuan Foods - Muyuan represents the pork industry chain, with a fully integrated operation from breeding to slaughtering [5] - Q3 revenue increased by 15% and profit surged by 41%, although profits are highly cyclical and sensitive to pork price fluctuations [5] - The current P/E ratio is about 13.8, well below its historical average of 45.78, suggesting it is undervalued [5] - The stock recently broke out of a two-year consolidation phase and is currently testing the upper boundary of this range [5] Market Context - The consumer sector has been underperforming until recent positive CPI data, which has shifted market sentiment towards previously undervalued consumer stocks [7] - China Duty Free and Muyuan exhibit higher volatility and sensitivity to macroeconomic factors, while Midea and Yili are characterized by stable growth and lower volatility [7] - Valuation analysis shows that China Duty Free's P/E ratio is above its historical average, while Midea, Yili, and Muyuan are trading below their historical averages, reflecting market skepticism about their short-term growth potential [9]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the agricultural sector, particularly highlighting the resilience and growth potential in the pet food market and the cyclical recovery in the pig farming industry [1] Group 1: Pet Industry Performance - The pet food sales during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival reached 9.4 billion yuan, showcasing significant growth in the pet sector [11][12] - Major brands like Mai Fudi and Frigat led sales on platforms such as JD and Tmall, indicating strong competitive advantages [11][12] - The trend towards high-end and refined pet products is evident, with new processing techniques gaining market share [11][12][16] Group 2: Pig Farming Market Dynamics - As of November 14, 2025, the average price of pigs was 11.66 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.22 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decline of 4.79% [4][15] - The supply side is expected to contract due to overproduction in October and a reduction in breeding stock, while demand may increase due to seasonal consumption patterns [4][15] - The report suggests that the pig farming sector may enter a favorable investment phase as losses accelerate and market conditions stabilize [5][26] Group 3: Market Performance Overview - From November 10 to November 14, the agricultural index outperformed the broader market by 2.87 percentage points, with a 2.70% increase in the agricultural index compared to a 0.18% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [28][29] - Key stocks such as Yuegui Co. and ST Jiawo saw significant gains, indicating strong performance within the agricultural sector [28][33] Group 4: Feed Industry Insights - The domestic feed market is benefiting from the recovery in livestock numbers and strong overseas demand, with a projected increase in feed production [26] - The report highlights the growth in feed production from 162 million tons in 2010 to 315 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.86% [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in pig production in October, leading to ongoing supply pressure and price declines in the market [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term performance improvement in the pig farming sector due to recent policies and market dynamics driving capacity reduction [3][48]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - In October, the total pig output from 14 listed companies reached 17.2 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 23.20% and a year-on-year increase of 25.85% [11]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter increased to 126.27 kg, reflecting a slight month-on-month rise [15][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, with specific stocks such as Muyuan Foods (牧原股份), Wens Foodstuffs (温氏股份), and others identified as potential investments [3][48]. - It also suggests opportunities in the feed and animal health sectors, driven by rising demand as pig inventories recover [3][48]. Market Trends - The report notes a downward trend in pig prices, with the average price dropping significantly due to increased supply and reduced consumer demand post-holiday season [13][17]. - The report indicates that the current price of pigs is around 11.73 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.51% [17]. Agricultural Products - The report discusses the broader agricultural landscape, noting that grain prices are on an upward trend, which presents investment opportunities in the planting and seed sectors [3][48]. - It highlights the ongoing replenishment cycle in the rubber market, with prices currently at 15,215 yuan/ton, down 1.47% week-on-week [45].

股票回购增持再贷款政策工具推出以来，市场带动效应明显。日前，中国人民银行发布的2025年第三季 度货币政策执行报告显示，截至9月末，上市公司披露拟申请股票回购增持贷款金额上限超3300亿元， 金融机构签订贷款合同金额约3300亿元，已发放超1200亿元。 在业内人士看来，随着政策体系持续完善，股票回购增持再贷款政策工具已逐步构建起"政策激励—企 业响应—市场稳定"的传导路径，成为稳市机制建设的重要一环。它不仅直接带来数千亿元的潜在增量 资金，对稳定股价预期形成有效支撑，同时也有效发挥了逆周期调节功能，增强了A股在面对内外部冲 击时的韧性。 从首批上市公司"吃螃蟹"，到其他上市公司陆续跟进，股票回购增持贷款进展有序。Wind数据显示， 截至发稿，已有763家上市公司披露相关专项贷款公告，涉及金额超1500亿元。此外，中国诚通、中国 国新两家国有资本运营公司此前宣布拟使用1800亿元股票回购增持贷款资金，加大对所投上市公司的增 持力度。 "股票回购增持再贷款的常态化运行为市场构建了内在稳定器。"中国上市公司协会学术顾问委员会委员 程凤朝接受上海证券报记者采访时表示：一方面，该项工具帮助企业在市场低迷阶段缓解流动性 ...