此外，当前奶价已跌破上一轮周期底部，原奶供需失衡压力凸显。天风证券指出，受持续亏损影响，奶 牛存栏量连续数月环比下降，10月累计去化超8%，产能出清接近尾声。与此同时，肉牛价格步入上行 通道，叠加冬季消费旺季来临，预计11-12月价格将震荡上行。中长期来看，受补栏意愿低迷等因素制 约，肉牛周期涨幅或超预期，具备母牛资源的企业将迎来盈利改善机遇。 截至2025年11月17日 10:26，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)成分股方面涨跌互现，天马科技(603668)领涨 5.06%，美农生物(301156)上涨1.40%，生物股份(600201)上涨0.67%；金新农(002548)领跌。养殖 ETF(516760)最新报价0.7元。 消息面上，生猪养殖行业已连续多周处于亏损状态，产能去化正在加速。中泰证券分析指出，2025年第 三季度全国商品猪均价同比下跌28%，主要上市猪企归母净利润同比下滑68%。当前行业资产负债率控 制得当，但出栏增速与成本控制呈现明显分化，效率驱动正逐步取代周期驱动成为核心竞争力。在持续 亏损与政策引导下，预计后续产能去化将加快，为未来价格中枢回升奠定基础。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | ...

Core Insights - The article compares four major companies in the consumer sector: China Duty Free Group, Midea Group, Yili, and Muyuan Foods, highlighting their performance and potential as leaders in the current market environment [1] Company Summaries China Duty Free Group - The company has partnerships with approximately 1,600 brands and operates around 200 duty-free stores across over 100 cities [3] - In Q3, revenue decreased by 7% and net profit fell by 22%, reflecting broader economic challenges [3] - The current P/E ratio is about 44.9, slightly above its historical average of 43.84, indicating a modest recovery from historical lows [3] - Recent technical signals suggest a potential upward trend after a period of decline [3] Midea Group - Midea is recognized for its stability in the home appliance sector, with a strong presence in smart home solutions and core appliance components [3] - Q3 revenue grew by 13% and profit increased by 19%, marking 12 consecutive years of profit growth [3] - The current P/E ratio is approximately 12.1, below the historical average of 15.33, suggesting it is undervalued [3] - The stock has shown resilience and is nearing a breakout after a prolonged period of consolidation [3] Yili - Yili is a leading player in the food and beverage industry, with a diverse product range and a global footprint [5] - In Q3, the net profit grew by 18%, while revenue saw a slight increase of 1.71% [5] - The current P/E ratio is around 12.9, significantly lower than the historical average of 29, indicating potential undervaluation [5] - The stock has been in a consolidation phase since November 2022 [5] Muyuan Foods - Muyuan represents the pork industry chain, with a fully integrated operation from breeding to slaughtering [5] - Q3 revenue increased by 15% and profit surged by 41%, although profits are highly cyclical and sensitive to pork price fluctuations [5] - The current P/E ratio is about 13.8, well below its historical average of 45.78, suggesting it is undervalued [5] - The stock recently broke out of a two-year consolidation phase and is currently testing the upper boundary of this range [5] Market Context - The consumer sector has been underperforming until recent positive CPI data, which has shifted market sentiment towards previously undervalued consumer stocks [7] - China Duty Free and Muyuan exhibit higher volatility and sensitivity to macroeconomic factors, while Midea and Yili are characterized by stable growth and lower volatility [7] - Valuation analysis shows that China Duty Free's P/E ratio is above its historical average, while Midea, Yili, and Muyuan are trading below their historical averages, reflecting market skepticism about their short-term growth potential [9]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the agricultural sector, particularly highlighting the resilience and growth potential in the pet food market and the cyclical recovery in the pig farming industry [1] Group 1: Pet Industry Performance - The pet food sales during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival reached 9.4 billion yuan, showcasing significant growth in the pet sector [11][12] - Major brands like Mai Fudi and Frigat led sales on platforms such as JD and Tmall, indicating strong competitive advantages [11][12] - The trend towards high-end and refined pet products is evident, with new processing techniques gaining market share [11][12][16] Group 2: Pig Farming Market Dynamics - As of November 14, 2025, the average price of pigs was 11.66 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.22 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decline of 4.79% [4][15] - The supply side is expected to contract due to overproduction in October and a reduction in breeding stock, while demand may increase due to seasonal consumption patterns [4][15] - The report suggests that the pig farming sector may enter a favorable investment phase as losses accelerate and market conditions stabilize [5][26] Group 3: Market Performance Overview - From November 10 to November 14, the agricultural index outperformed the broader market by 2.87 percentage points, with a 2.70% increase in the agricultural index compared to a 0.18% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [28][29] - Key stocks such as Yuegui Co. and ST Jiawo saw significant gains, indicating strong performance within the agricultural sector [28][33] Group 4: Feed Industry Insights - The domestic feed market is benefiting from the recovery in livestock numbers and strong overseas demand, with a projected increase in feed production [26] - The report highlights the growth in feed production from 162 million tons in 2010 to 315 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.86% [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in pig production in October, leading to ongoing supply pressure and price declines in the market [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term performance improvement in the pig farming sector due to recent policies and market dynamics driving capacity reduction [3][48]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - In October, the total pig output from 14 listed companies reached 17.2 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 23.20% and a year-on-year increase of 25.85% [11]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter increased to 126.27 kg, reflecting a slight month-on-month rise [15][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, with specific stocks such as Muyuan Foods (牧原股份), Wens Foodstuffs (温氏股份), and others identified as potential investments [3][48]. - It also suggests opportunities in the feed and animal health sectors, driven by rising demand as pig inventories recover [3][48]. Market Trends - The report notes a downward trend in pig prices, with the average price dropping significantly due to increased supply and reduced consumer demand post-holiday season [13][17]. - The report indicates that the current price of pigs is around 11.73 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.51% [17]. Agricultural Products - The report discusses the broader agricultural landscape, noting that grain prices are on an upward trend, which presents investment opportunities in the planting and seed sectors [3][48]. - It highlights the ongoing replenishment cycle in the rubber market, with prices currently at 15,215 yuan/ton, down 1.47% week-on-week [45].

股票回购增持再贷款政策工具推出以来，市场带动效应明显。日前，中国人民银行发布的2025年第三季 度货币政策执行报告显示，截至9月末，上市公司披露拟申请股票回购增持贷款金额上限超3300亿元， 金融机构签订贷款合同金额约3300亿元，已发放超1200亿元。 在业内人士看来，随着政策体系持续完善，股票回购增持再贷款政策工具已逐步构建起"政策激励—企 业响应—市场稳定"的传导路径，成为稳市机制建设的重要一环。它不仅直接带来数千亿元的潜在增量 资金，对稳定股价预期形成有效支撑，同时也有效发挥了逆周期调节功能，增强了A股在面对内外部冲 击时的韧性。 从首批上市公司"吃螃蟹"，到其他上市公司陆续跟进，股票回购增持贷款进展有序。Wind数据显示， 截至发稿，已有763家上市公司披露相关专项贷款公告，涉及金额超1500亿元。此外，中国诚通、中国 国新两家国有资本运营公司此前宣布拟使用1800亿元股票回购增持贷款资金，加大对所投上市公司的增 持力度。 "股票回购增持再贷款的常态化运行为市场构建了内在稳定器。"中国上市公司协会学术顾问委员会委员 程凤朝接受上海证券报记者采访时表示：一方面，该项工具帮助企业在市场低迷阶段缓解流动性 ...

（上接1版） 一位银行投顾人士告诉上海证券报记者，回购增持再贷款近一年来通过政策优化与规模扩张，已初步显 现出"稳市场、提信心、促活力"的多重效应，正逐步从"阶段性工具"向"常态化机制"演进。 从实践来看，参与企业结构多元、行业覆盖面广。化工、农业、科技、能源、医药、有色金属、消费品 等关键领域均有代表企业参与，既包括基础制造业龙头，也涵盖战略性新兴产业领军者，显示出政策对 不同类型、不同发展阶段企业的广泛支持。 展望未来，市场观察人士指出，随着审批流程进一步简化、质押率动态调整机制逐步优化，预计将有更 多上市公司启动"回购+增持"组合操作，进一步强化该工具的市场稳定器功能。在服务新质生产力培育 与经济高质量发展的宏观目标下，这一工具有望持续发挥桥梁与杠杆作用，为资本市场稳健运行注入更 多确定性。 同时，大额融资项目不断涌现。Wind数据显示，目前已有三峡能源、牧原股份、海尔智家、京东方A等 10余家企业获批专项再贷款额度均超过10亿元。例如，牧原股份从中信银行获得25亿元三年期股份回购 贷款，有力支撑其30亿元至40亿元的回购计划。 此外，从资金用途结构看，超七成公司倾向于将资金用于股份回购，涉及金额上限合 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [48]. Core Viewpoints - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 4.87% from October 31, 2025, to November 13, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 5.04 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (9.03%), fishery (8.12%), animal health (5.57%), planting (4.57%), breeding (2.94%), and feed (2.45%) [12]. - Over 90% of individual stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, indicating strong overall market performance [13]. - The industry valuation has rebounded, with the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio at approximately 2.94 times as of November 13, 2025, which is still relatively low compared to historical levels [17]. Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs decreased from 12.52 CNY/kg to 11.74 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal showed fluctuations, with corn priced at 2260.39 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3072 CNY/ton as of November 13, 2025 [21][23]. - **Profitability**: As of November 14, 2025, self-breeding pig farming reported a loss of 114.81 CNY per head, while purchasing piglets resulted in a loss of 205.64 CNY per head, indicating a decline in profitability [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.49 CNY per chick, slightly down from the previous week, while the average price of white feather broilers increased to 7.12 CNY/kg, with a loss of 0.95 CNY per bird [28][31]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized accelerating the self-reliance and controllability of seed technology during a recent meeting, highlighting the importance of domestic seed sources and innovation in the seed industry [35]. Company Important News - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, which are positioned to benefit from industry trends and potential recovery in profitability [48][49].

牧原股份11月14日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量71.00万股，成交金额3540.77万元，大宗交易成 交价为49.87元。该笔交易的买卖双方均为机构专用席位。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生5笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为1.93亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，牧原股份今日收盘价为49.87元，下跌1.38%，日换手率为0.65%，成交额为 12.48亿元，全天主力资金净流出1.04亿元，近5日该股累计上涨0.32%，近5日资金合计净流出2.11亿 元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为50.68亿元，近5日增加3064.77万元，增幅为0.61%。（数据宝） 11月14日牧原股份大宗交易一览 | 成交量（万 | 成交金额（万 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折溢价 | 买方营业 | 卖方营业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股） | 元） | （元） | （%） | 部 | 部 | | 71.00 | 3540.77 | 49.87 | 0.00 | 机构专用 | 机构专用 | （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

| 权益类证券大宗交易 (协议交易) | | | | | | | | 团 下载 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | | | | | (元) | (万股/万份) | (万元) | | | | | 2025-11-14 | 002714 | 牧原股份 | 49.87 | 71.00 | 3,540.7 机构专用 | | 机构专用 | | 11月14日，牧原股份大宗交易成交71万股，成交额3540.77万元，占当日总成交额的2.76%，成交价 49.87元，较市场收盘价49.87元持平。 ...

格隆汇11月14日｜长江证券研报指出，牧原股份2025年前三季度实现归母净利润147.79亿元 （YoY+41%），其中单三季度实现归母净利润42.49亿元（YoY-56%）。成本优势下延续较好盈利，降 负债目标提前完成。生产成绩持续优化，成本显著下降，猪价下行期仍取得较好盈利。公司未来几年海 外资本开支的具体量级将根据海外业务的进展确定，但相比于国内的资本开支，预计将处于较低水平。 牧原股份已由高成长发展阶段步入高质量发展阶段，更加注重提升效率、深挖成本、降低负债，自由现 金流水平有望得到持续提高，同时海外市场带来更广阔的发展空间，预计2025、2026年公司实现归母净 利润155、176亿元，重点推荐。 ...