Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 137.95 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.88 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 519.42% year-on-year [5] - The company has achieved notable cost reductions, with a per-kilogram breeding cost decreasing from 15.8 yuan at the beginning of the year to 13 yuan by the end of the year, and further down to 12.9 yuan in February 2025 [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.72 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, amounting to a total of 30.83 billion yuan [7] - The company is expected to maintain substantial profits despite a projected decline in pig prices in 2025, with estimated earnings per share (EPS) of 3.09 yuan, 3.96 yuan, and 5.79 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 38.26 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 209 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 145.8 billion yuan [4] Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 137.95 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan [5][9] - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 was approximately 37.99 billion yuan [9] Cost Management - The average breeding cost for the company was approximately 14 yuan/kg in 2024, with a target of 12 yuan/kg for 2025 [6] Shareholder Returns - The proposed cash dividend for 2024 is 5.72 yuan per 10 shares, leading to a dividend payout ratio of 42.44% [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have EPS of 3.09 yuan, 3.96 yuan, and 5.79 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12X, 10X, and 7X [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant cost advantages and steady growth in output, leading to consistent performance in the industry [4][5] - The company reported a revenue of 1379.47 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 178.81 billion yuan, up 519.42% [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 240.66 billion yuan, 287.50 billion yuan, and 379.51 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.41 yuan, 5.26 yuan, and 6.95 yuan [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1362.29 billion yuan from pig farming, with a sales volume of 7160.2 million pigs, marking a 12.21% increase [5] - The company's breeding costs decreased from approximately 14 yuan/kg in 2024 to 12.9 yuan/kg in February 2025, indicating a strong trend in cost reduction [5] - The slaughtering business generated revenue of 242.74 billion yuan in 2024, with a reduction in per-head losses to around 50 yuan [6] Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1470.23 billion yuan, 1568.06 billion yuan, and 1732.69 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 240.66 billion yuan, 287.50 billion yuan, and 379.51 billion yuan [7][12] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 19.1% in 2024 to 27.5% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to rise from 13.0% to 21.9% over the same period [12]

[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 03 月 20 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 牧原股份（002714）农林牧渔 目标价：46.15 元（6 个月） 买入 （维持） 当前价：38.26 元 24 年生猪业务量价齐增，成本控制成效显著 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 137,947 | 146,239 | 160,822 | 176,860 | | 增长率 | 24.43% | 6.01% | 9.97% | 9.97% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 17,881 | 19,394 | 24,399 | 31,820 | | 增长率 | 519.42% | 8.46% | 25.81% | 30.41% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 3.30 | 3.55 | 4.47 | 5.82 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 24.82% | 21.39% | 21.20% | 21.66% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1379.47 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 178.81 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The company sold 71.602 million pigs in 2024, a 12.2% increase year-on-year, with a target of 72-78 million for 2025 [1] - The complete cost of pig farming decreased from approximately 14 yuan/kg in 2024 to a target of 12 yuan/kg in 2025, contributing to improved profitability [1] - The slaughtering segment achieved monthly profitability in December 2024, with a reduction in average losses per head from 70 yuan in 2023 to 50 yuan in 2024 [2] - The company is expanding its overseas business and enhancing its technological capabilities in smart farming applications [2] Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 206.29 billion yuan, 220.67 billion yuan, and 353.65 billion yuan respectively, with EPS expected to be 3.88, 4.03, and 6.46 yuan [3] - The company’s PE ratios for the same years are forecasted to be 10, 10, and 6 times [3] - Revenue is expected to grow from 142.48 billion yuan in 2025 to 162.78 billion yuan in 2027, with a growth rate of 13.77% in 2027 [5]

为推进牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）的国际化进程，支撑 公司海外业务布局，公司子公司瑞谷国际农产有限公司投资设立境外全资子公 司越南牧原有限公司，主要经营业务为提供生猪养殖方面的技术服务、智能化 养殖设备等。公司本次投资设立境外全资子公司将有利于公司积累海外公司运 营经验，扩大海外业务渠道，为公司布局海外市场打下坚实基础。 | 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 | 公告编号：2025-020 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | | 牧原食品股份有限公司 关于投资设立越南全资子公司并完成注册登记的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本次投资事项不构成关联交易，亦不构成《上市公司重大资产重组管理办 法》规定的重大资产重组。根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》等法律法规 和《公司章程》的相关规定，本次投资事项无需提交公司董事会、股东大会审 议。 近日，公司已就本次投资设立境外全资子公司事宜完成注册登记手续，并 取得了《营业执照》，现就其相关注册登记事项公告如下： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 137.95 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.88 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from loss to profit [4][6] - The company sold 71.60 million pigs in 2024, including 65.48 million market pigs, 5.66 million piglets, and 0.465 million breeding pigs [6] - The company has optimized its breeding costs, with the total cost of pig farming reduced to approximately 13 yuan/kg by the end of 2024, and the average annual cost around 14 yuan/kg [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.72 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 3.08 billion yuan, highlighting its investment value [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 137.95 billion yuan and a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, with significant growth in both metrics [4][6] - The company has a breeding capacity of approximately 81 million pigs per year and has established 10 slaughterhouses with a capacity of 29 million pigs per year [6] Cost Management - The company has seen continuous optimization in breeding costs, with production indicators improving, including a PSY (Pigs Sold per Sow per Year) above 29 and a survival rate close to 86% [6] - The average daily weight gain for fattening pigs is around 800 grams, and the feed-to-meat ratio is approximately 2.8 [6] Dividend Policy - The company announced a total dividend of 7.58 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting its strong financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 129.60 billion yuan, 133.01 billion yuan, and 158.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 16.61 billion yuan, 16.36 billion yuan, and 27.65 billion yuan for the same years [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant turnaround in 2024, achieving a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 4.26 billion yuan in 2023, with a revenue increase of 24.43% to 137.95 billion yuan [7] - The company experienced a notable increase in pig sales, with a total of 71.60 million pigs sold in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [7] - The average selling price of pigs increased to 16.75 yuan/kg, up 11.62% year-on-year, contributing to an estimated profit of 250 yuan per pig sold [7] - The company aims to reduce production costs further, targeting a cost of 12 yuan/kg by 2025, down from 14 yuan/kg in 2024 [7] - The company plans to increase its pig output to between 72 million and 78 million pigs in 2025, reflecting a growth of 10% to 19% year-on-year [7] - The company has implemented a cash dividend plan, proposing a distribution of 5.72 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 30.83 billion yuan, which indicates a commitment to shareholder returns [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 135.50 billion yuan in 2025, a slight decrease of 1.8% from 2024, with net profit expected to reach 20.83 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 16.5% [6][9] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 24.1% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 23.1% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 3.81 yuan in 2025, up from 3.30 yuan in 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1379.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 178.81 billion yuan, reversing a loss of 42.63 billion yuan in the previous year [5] - The company plans to slaughter between 72 million to 78 million pigs in 2025, with a total of 71.6 million pigs slaughtered in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.2% [5] - The company has improved its gross profit margin significantly, with a comprehensive gross margin of 19.05% in 2024, up by 15.94 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company has established a nationwide pork sales network, with 70 service stations across 20 provincial-level administrative regions [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 1379.47 billion yuan in 2024 to 1465.04 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 6.20% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 178.81 billion yuan in 2024 to 189.46 billion yuan in 2025, a growth rate of 5.95% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 3.47 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11 times [6] Operational Highlights - The company’s total pig slaughtering volume in 2024 was 12.52 million heads, with a revenue contribution from slaughtering and meat products of 24.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.03% [5] - The company has achieved a monthly profit in its slaughtering business as of December 2024 [5] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 1876.49 billion yuan in 2024 to 2823.87 billion yuan in 2025 [7] Key Financial Ratios - The gross margin is expected to improve to 19.86% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 13.69% [9] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 21.53% in 2025 [9] - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease to 58.68% by the end of 2024 [5]

公司点评报告 · 农林牧渔行业 24年生猪量价齐升,屠宰业务实现单月盈利 2025 年 3 月 19 日 核心观点 牧原股份(股票代码:002714.SZ) 资料来源:Wind,中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 | 维持评级 | | --- | | 推荐 | 分析师 谢芝优 ☎: 021-68597609 网: xiezhiyou_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519020001 | 市场数据 | 2025-3-19 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 002714.SZ | | A 股收盘价(元) | 38.74 | | 上证指数 | 3426.43 | | 总股本(万股) | 546,276.82 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 381,072.29 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 1476.27 | 2025-3-19 相对沪深 300 表现图 30% 20% 10% (10% -10% -20% ● 事件:公司发布 2024年年度报 ...

牧[Ta原ble股_Sto份ckN（ameRptType] 002714） 公司点评 [Table_Title] 2025 年出栏规划超预期，2 月成本已降至 12.9 元 | [T投a资ble评_R级an：k]买入（维持） | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-03-19 | | [收Ta盘bl价e_（Ba元se）Data] | 38.74 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 49.72/34.29 | | 总股本（百万股） | 5,463 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3,811 | | 流通股比例（%） | 69.76 | | 总市值（亿元） | 2,116 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 1,476 | [分Ta析bl师e_：Au王th莺or] 执业证书号：S0010520070003 邮箱：wangying@hazq.com [相Ta关bl报e_告CompanyReport] 叠加规划修订 2024-10-29 100 亿 2024-10-09 主要观点： [T2a0b2le4_S年um实m现a归ry]母净利 178.8 亿元，拟每 10 股派 5.72 元 公司 ...