正月初五，俗称"破五"，是迎财神的日子。 很多经商的人，都习惯在这天开门营业，图个好彩头。 这一天，河南的民营企业家代表，被请去郑州。 省委书记、省长一起出席，与他们餐叙交流，听意见建议。 这次餐叙交流，有何特别？背后又藏着怎样的深意？ 01 为什么是正月初五？ 在正月初五，河南省领导与民营企业家代表餐叙交流，已经是第二次了。 有人会问：为什么偏偏选在这一天？ 答案其实很简单，河南迎的"财神"，不就是这些埋头苦干、创新突围的企业家吗？ 去年河南GDP达到6.66万亿元、增长5.6%，增速居全国第3位、经济大省第1位、中部六省第1位，是 2019年以来完成年度目标任务最好的年份，其中民营经济功不可没。 最新统计数据显示，河南全省经营主体1160.5万户，其中95%以上是民营。 从牧原、宇通、华兰这样的行业龙头，到胖东来、蜜雪冰城、锅圈食汇这样的消费新锐，再到遍布街头 巷尾的小店小铺。 河南的经济发展、就业岗位、创新活力，哪一样离得开他们？ 说到底，"民营经济好则河南经济好，民营经济强则河南经济强。" 也正因如此，春节假期还没结束，省领导们就放弃休息，企业家们从各地赶来，坐在一起聊发展、谈问 题。 这种姿态本身就 ...

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods has officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first A+H dual-listed pig farming company in China, marking a significant step in its internationalization process [1] Group 1: Listing and Market Response - The company’s shares rose by 2.6% to HKD 40 per share, with a market capitalization nearing HKD 230 billion at the time of reporting [1] - The global offering of H-shares was 274 million shares, with a final issue price set at HKD 39.0 per share, achieving a subscription rate of 5.88 times for the public offering and 8.62 times for the international offering [3] Group 2: Capital Raising and Investor Participation - The net proceeds from the fundraising are approximately HKD 10.46 billion, which could increase to about HKD 12.04 billion if the over-allotment option is fully exercised [3] - A strong group of cornerstone investors participated, with total subscriptions amounting to approximately HKD 5.34 billion, representing 50% of the global offering [3] Group 3: Fund Utilization Plans - Approximately 60% of the net proceeds (around HKD 6.28 billion) will be used to expand overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia, and to enhance the global supply chain [4] - About 30% of the funds (approximately HKD 3.14 billion) will be allocated to R&D in core areas such as breeding, smart farming, and biosecurity [4] - The remaining 10% (around HKD 1.05 billion) will be reserved for working capital to ensure operational stability [4] Group 4: Business Model and Financial Performance - Muyuan Foods operates a vertically integrated business model covering the entire pig farming value chain, maintaining its position as the global industry leader since 2021 [5] - The company is projected to sell 77.98 million market pigs and slaughter over 28 million pigs by 2025, with expected net profits ranging from RMB 14.7 billion to RMB 15.7 billion [5] Group 5: Cost Management and Financial Health - The total cost of pig farming is expected to be around RMB 12 per kilogram by 2025, with December figures already dropping to approximately RMB 11.6 per kilogram [6] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company’s total assets reached RMB 180.76 billion, with shareholders' equity at RMB 80.44 billion, indicating a robust financial structure [6] - The company has distributed a total of RMB 16.6 billion in dividends from 2022 to the first nine months of 2025, with a commitment to distribute at least 40% of the annual distributable profits in cash to shareholders from 2024 to 2026 [6]

牧原股份近日登陆港交所，成为国内生猪养殖行业首家实现"A+H"双上市的企业。作为全球出栏量最大 的养猪企业，牧原股份借此为其国际化战略搭建了投融资渠道，但也带来新的经营课题。 不过双线并行也有许多风险需要注意。中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜提示，"A+H"布局需重点警惕 估值落差、监管差异、治理整合三类风险。港股机构投资者占比高，对生猪养殖等强周期、重资产、利 润波动大的行业估值显著低于A股，可能会导致H股股价表现低于预期，影响融资效率。两地在会计准 则、信息披露等监管规则上也存在差异，企业需调整财务与治理体系以适配港股要求，防范因合规问题 导致的股价波动或罚款。此外，国际投资者更看重公司治理与长期战略，牧原作为A股企业，过去更注 重规模扩张，整合过程中可能出现理念冲突，影响决策效率。 多家投资机构入局 牧原股份H股发行引入了多家机构作为基石投资者，正大集团、丰益、中化香港、香港豫农国际、富达 基金、高毅、平安人寿保险、UBS AM等机构均在列，涵盖国际产业龙头、全球顶级资产管理机构等多 元主体。基石投资者合计认购金额约53.42亿港元，占全球发售股份的50%。 下一步，牧原股份不仅需要适配两地资本市场在监管 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that pig prices in 2026 will be lower than market expectations, leading the industry into a significant loss phase. This will mark a major capacity reduction cycle, which is expected to result in substantial stock price increases for the sector [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Price Trends in 2025 - The average pig price for 2025 was 13.7 yuan/kg, with a downward trend observed throughout the year, particularly in the fourth quarter where prices ranged between 11.5 and 12.5 yuan/kg [7]. 2. 2026 Pig Price Forecast - The report predicts that the average pig price for 2026 will likely be below 12 yuan/kg, with the second half of the year not showing improvement over the first half [17][32]. 3. Capacity Reduction Cycle - The current capacity reduction cycle is expected to last approximately three years, marking the largest cycle since 2021. This cycle is characterized by a more equitable competition among all farming entities due to the diminished impact of African swine fever [34][38]. 4. Stock Price Increase Potential - The report suggests that the stock prices in the pig farming sector will experience significant upward movement driven by the ongoing capacity reduction. Key companies to focus on include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Tian Kang Biological [3][4]. 5. Supply Dynamics - The report emphasizes that an increase in the number of breeding sows does not necessarily correlate with an increase in supply. The actual supply has been significantly boosted by improved production efficiency and a reduction in loss rates since the decline of African swine fever [20][23]. 6. Important Time Points - Two critical time points are highlighted: post-Chinese New Year, where prices typically drop, and around May/June when piglet prices are expected to fall below cost, accelerating capacity reduction [4][44].

Core Insights - The Chinese pig farming industry is transitioning to a new phase of high-quality development, focusing on improving quality and stabilizing prices to meet diverse consumer demands for pork [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for pork is increasing, with stable supply and lower prices compared to the previous year, particularly in wholesale markets [2] - Major retailers like Yonghui Supermarket are preparing to sell approximately 4,700 tons of pork during the festival, a 20% increase from the previous year, by ensuring a stable supply chain and logistics [2][3] Consumer Trends - There are three notable consumer trends observed: a shift in preference towards specific pork cuts like belly and ribs, an increase in demand for convenient packaging, and a rise in quality-focused consumption with premium products being introduced [3] Supply Chain Management - Companies like Muyuan Foods are implementing comprehensive supply chain strategies to ensure fresh and high-quality pork is available during the festival, including cold chain logistics and real-time monitoring of transportation conditions [4][6][7] - Muyuan Foods has ramped up production capacity to over 18,000 tons per day and is utilizing a fleet of 2,500 cold chain vehicles to deliver fresh pork to over 80 cities nationwide [6] Quality Assurance Measures - The company employs a proprietary three-stage acid removal and cooling process to maintain meat freshness and quality, alongside strict temperature controls in processing and transportation [6][7] - During the festival, Muyuan Foods is adjusting its pig slaughtering schedule to ensure a steady supply while also accommodating market demand fluctuations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent listing of Muyuan Foods on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, highlighting its ambitions for international expansion and the challenges it faces in the current pork market cycle. Group 1: Company Overview - Muyuan Foods, led by Qin Yinglin, has become the largest pig farming enterprise in China and globally, with a net worth of 187 billion yuan, ranking 16th on the Hurun Rich List [4][6][19]. - The company completed its "A+H" listing on February 6, raising 10.47 billion HKD, with plans to use 60% of the funds for international market expansion [6][25]. Group 2: Market Performance - On its first trading day, Muyuan's stock rose only 3.90%, attributed to a decline in pork prices, with an average selling price of 12.57 yuan/kg in January, down 16.92% year-on-year [8][26]. - The company expects a net profit of 15.1 to 16.1 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 14.12% to 19.45% compared to the previous year [30]. Group 3: Investment and Partnerships - Major cornerstone investors include Charoen Pokphand Foods, which invested approximately 1.56 billion HKD, and Wilmar International, which invested about 546 million HKD [27][28]. - Muyuan is exploring overseas opportunities, particularly in Southeast Asia, and has partnered with BAF Vietnam Agricultural Co., providing services like pig house design and smart farming [9][29]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The pork industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with many producers facing losses due to the cyclical nature of pig prices, often referred to as the "pig cycle" [12][36]. - The company has faced significant challenges, including a reported loss of 4.263 billion yuan in 2023, marking its first annual loss since its listing [15][35]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Muyuan aims to leverage its international listing to enhance its core business and expand its global footprint, with a focus on technological innovation and cost control [7][18]. - The company plans to maintain a competitive edge through continuous improvement in breeding, smart farming, and biosecurity measures [6][30].

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the dual strategy opportunities in the pig farming industry, highlighting the potential for price rebounds in 2026 despite a year-on-year decline in pig prices due to production capacity adjustments and industry losses [1] Group 1: CPI and Pork Prices - In December, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with food prices rising by 1.1%, while pork prices fell by 14.6% year-on-year [1] - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.2%, with food prices increasing by 0.3%, but pork prices decreased by 1.7% [1] Group 2: Fruit and Vegetable Prices - Seasonal increases in fresh fruit prices are the main driver of the current food CPI, while vegetable price growth has slowed [2] - January vegetable prices averaged 5.59 yuan/kg, up 6.37% year-on-year, with expectations for continued price increases in Q1 due to the later timing of the Spring Festival and weather impacts [2] - January fruit prices averaged approximately 7.88 yuan/kg, up 8.87% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period since 2020 [2] Group 3: Feed Raw Material Prices - In January, the average price of corn was 2364.6 yuan/ton, up 0.69% month-on-month and 10.55% year-on-year, with expectations for a stable price range in 2026 [3] - The average price of soybean meal was 3198.97 yuan/ton, up 1.94% month-on-month and 3.82% year-on-year, with a forecast of slight upward movement in 2026 [3] - Overall, the prices of feed raw materials are expected to remain stable, indicating no significant increase in breeding cost pressures [3] Group 4: Pig Farming Outlook - Following a price increase in late December 2025, pork prices are expected to face downward pressure after the Spring Festival due to seasonal consumption patterns [4] - The annual average price of pigs is projected to decline year-on-year, although there may be temporary rebounds influenced by seasonal disease impacts [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [8] Core Insights - The report highlights the stabilization and rebound of pig prices, with the January average price for external three yuan pigs at 12.68 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9.58% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.52% [8][21] - The "No. 1 Document" emphasizes the promotion of biological breeding industrialization, which is crucial for achieving self-sufficiency in seed sources and enhancing grain production capacity [19][20] - The pet food sector shows a positive trend, with December 2025 pet food exports reaching 37,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.49% [35] Summary by Sections Market Review - In January 2026, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose by 1.63%, ranking 23rd among 30 sectors, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.65% [11] - The animal health sector performed well, while the forestry processing sector saw declines [11] Biological Breeding - The "No. 1 Document" calls for the implementation of actions to revitalize the seed industry and accelerate the breeding and promotion of breakthrough varieties [19][20] - The focus is on stabilizing grain and oil production and enhancing yield levels [19] Livestock and Poultry Data Tracking - Pig prices showed a rebound in January, with a tight supply supporting price increases [21] - The average price of white feather chickens rose to 3.73 yuan/jin, with a month-on-month increase of 1.36% [28] Pet Food Exports - Pet food exports maintained a year-on-year growth, with total exports for 2025 reaching 361,300 tons, a 7.78% increase [35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Pulaike, Qiule Seed Industry, Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Holdings, as the industry’s price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios are below historical averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Muyuan Foods, faces significant financial challenges, including high debt levels, liquidity risks, and reliance on volatile pig prices, which could jeopardize its future performance and investor confidence [3][6][12]. Debt and Financial Structure - As of the end of 2024, the company's total liabilities reached 110.1 billion yuan, a decrease from the peak of 121.3 billion yuan in 2023, but short-term repayment pressures have increased [3]. - The company has 60.27 billion yuan in interest-bearing debt due within one year, marking a four-year high, with short-term loans amounting to 45.3 billion yuan and cash equivalents of only 12.8 billion yuan, resulting in a short-term repayment gap exceeding 32.5 billion yuan [3]. - The debt structure is characterized by a mismatch in maturity, with 70.3% of short-term loans, leading to a net current liability of 17.1 billion yuan [3][5]. Profitability and Cash Flow - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 18.925 billion yuan, a 519% increase year-on-year, largely driven by a recovery in pig prices; however, a decline in average pig prices by 16.8% is expected in 2025, leading to a projected net profit drop to at least 15.1 billion yuan [6][8]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 37.5 billion yuan, but significant outflows from investment activities caused cash and cash equivalents to decrease from 19.4 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 12.8 billion yuan by year-end [8]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the quality of earnings, with regulatory scrutiny highlighting discrepancies in cash management and insufficient provisions for inventory depreciation [8]. Market Position and Strategic Moves - The company's IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised over 10 billion Hong Kong dollars, but the share price was set at 39 HKD, approximately 23.9% lower than its A-share price, reflecting market caution [9][11]. - The allocation of IPO proceeds includes 60% for overseas expansion, 30% for research and development, and 10% for working capital, raising concerns about the sustainability of this strategy given the existing debt burden [11]. - The company's international operations are still in the early stages, primarily involving technology transfer, and face various risks, including local policy challenges and disease control [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [8] Core Insights - The report highlights the stabilization and rebound of pig prices, with the "No. 1 Document" reiterating the importance of biological breeding [8] - The report emphasizes the significance of the biological breeding industry for achieving self-sufficiency in seed sources and enhancing grain production capacity [19][20] - The report indicates that the industry is currently undervalued, with price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios below historical averages, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [8] Summary by Sections Market Review - In January 2026, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose by 1.63%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.65% [11] - The animal health sector showed strong performance, while the timber processing sector lagged [11] Biological Breeding - The "No. 1 Document" emphasizes the need to promote the industrialization of biological breeding, which is crucial for achieving self-reliance in seed sources and enhancing grain production [19][20] Livestock Farming Data Tracking - In January 2026, the average price of pigs was 12.68 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9.58% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.52% [21] - The average price of white feather chickens rose to 3.73 yuan/jin, with a month-on-month increase of 1.36% and a year-on-year increase of 2.75% [28] Pet Food Exports - In December 2025, pet food exports reached 37,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.49%, while the total export value for the year was 1.41 billion USD, a decrease of 4.62% [35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Pulike, Qiule Seed Industry, Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co., as they are expected to benefit from the industry's recovery [8]