Core Viewpoint - The ability of Muyuan Foods ("牧原股份") to withstand cyclical risks remains to be improved, as indicated by its financial performance in the first three quarters of 2025, which shows revenue growth but a significant decline in profit in the third quarter [2][5]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 14.8 billion yuan, up 41% year-on-year [3][4]. - The revenue and profit growth rates have slowed compared to the same period last year, where the net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was approximately 10.5 billion yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 668.90% [2][5]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 35.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 11%, and a net profit of approximately 4.2 billion yuan, down about 56% year-on-year [2][4]. Price Fluctuations - The significant decline in profit in the third quarter is directly related to the drop in pig sales prices, with the average selling price in September 2025 being 12.88 yuan per kilogram, down from over 14 yuan per kilogram in the first seven months of 2025 [2][5]. Operational Metrics - The company sold 57.32 million pigs in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27% [6]. - The company has adjusted its expected piglet sales for the full year 2025 from a range of 8 million to 12 million to a new range of 12 million to 14.5 million [6]. Cost Management - Despite a slight increase in feed prices, the overall production cost of pig farming has been decreasing, reaching 11.6 yuan per kilogram in September, down 1.5 yuan from January [8]. - The company has achieved a historic profitability in its slaughtering business, with a total of 19.16 million pigs slaughtered in the first nine months of 2025, a 140% increase year-on-year, and a capacity utilization rate of 88% [9]. Debt Management - The company has reduced its total liabilities by approximately 9.8 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, achieving its annual debt reduction target ahead of schedule [13]. - As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, the company's total liabilities stood at 100.32 billion yuan, down from 110.11 billion yuan at the beginning of the year [13]. - The company aims to lower its debt-to-asset ratio to below 50% in the long term [13].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Views - The agricultural sector is experiencing a mixed performance with significant opportunities in various sub-sectors, particularly in pig farming, cattle, pets, poultry, and planting industries. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies with strong profitability and market positioning [3][4][5][6][8][26]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Pig Farming Sector - The decline in pig prices has led to a divergence in profitability among companies, highlighting the need to focus on expected differences in the pig farming sector. The average selling price of pigs in Q3 2025 was between 13-14 CNY/kg, down from 14-15 CNY/kg in H1 2025 [3][15]. - Key companies to watch include leading players like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff, with valuations at historical low levels [3][16]. 2. Cattle Sector - The raw milk price is stabilizing, while the beef cattle sector may be entering a super cycle. The average price for beef cattle in Q3 2025 was 25.88 CNY/kg, up 2.34% from the previous quarter [4][17]. - Companies with mother cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [4][18]. 3. Pet Sector - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly rising. Major pet food companies reported revenues of 4.737 billion CNY for Guibao Pet and 3.860 billion CNY for Zhongchong Co., with growth rates of 29% and 21% respectively [5][19]. - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [5][20]. 4. Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment is under pressure, with a focus on the need for improved breeding practices. The average price for white chicken was reported to be 3.5 CNY/kg, with a slight increase [6][21]. - The yellow chicken market is expected to see price recovery due to seasonal demand, with companies like Lihua and Wens showing improved performance [6][23]. 5. Planting Sector - The seed industry is anticipated to recover, with a focus on the commercialization of genetically modified corn. Leading companies in the seed sector include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [8][26]. - The report emphasizes the importance of agricultural technology and innovation in enhancing competitiveness [8][27]. 6. Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector has shown revenue and profit growth among leading companies, with Haida Group reporting a revenue increase of 13.24% [8][28]. - The animal health sector is facing challenges due to competition, but there are opportunities for innovation in vaccine development [8][32].

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, despite ongoing losses in the industry [1][3] - The report highlights a potential acceleration in capacity reduction due to supply pressures and policy guidance [6][19] Group 1: Pig Farming - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.20% month-on-month in September, with a total of 40.35 million sows reported [20][21] - Pig prices have been on the rise, with the average price for market pigs reaching 12.22 CNY/kg on October 30, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.10% [29][30] - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses of 89.33 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and 179.72 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of October 31 [35][37] Group 2: Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather broilers increased to 7.09 CNY/kg on October 31, marking a week-on-week rise of 3.05% [39][42] - The report notes a significant increase in the number of breeding stock, with a 143.18% month-on-month rise in the number of grandparent stock updated in October [39][40] Group 3: Animal Health - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, driven by a recovery in breeding cycles and an increase in livestock numbers [48] - The report mentions that several companies are actively developing new products, which may enhance growth prospects for the sector [48] Group 4: Seed Industry - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn have increased, with wheat and soybean meal rising by 0.9% and 1.3% respectively as of October 31 [52][53] - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and the promotion of biotechnology in the seed industry [52][56] Group 5: Pet Industry - Pet food exports amounted to 823 million CNY in September, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.8% [57][60] - Domestic sales of pet food have continued to grow, with a combined growth rate of 3% across major e-commerce platforms in September [60]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月02日 牧原股份（002714.SZ） 优于大市 2025 年三季报点评:养殖成本逐步下降，国际化战略稳步推进 2025Q3 养殖成本稳步下降，单头盈利保持行业领先。公司 2025Q1-Q3 营收同 比+15.52%至 1117.9 亿元,归母净利同比+41.01%至 147.79 亿元；2025Q3 营 收同比-11.48%至 353.27 亿元,归母净利同比-55.98%至 42.49 亿元，主要系 2025Q3 猪价同比明显下降。公司 2025Q3 合计销售商品猪 1892.9 万头，仔猪 328.0 万头，经测算，公司 2025Q3 商品猪销售均价约 13.6 元/kg，对应单头 商品猪盈利接近 230-240 元（剔除非经常损益影响后），处于行业领先水平。 据公司公告，2025 年以来各项生产指标持续改善，生猪养殖完全成本逐月下 降，2025 年 7 月已降至约 11.8 元/kg，同时全程成活率达 87%，断奶到上市 的成活率达 92%，肥猪日增重约 860 克，育肥阶段料肉比约 2.7。 资产负债表稳步修复，现金流创造能力表现稳健。伴随盈利能力提升与资 本开支下 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The pork price center has significantly risen, leading to a notable reduction in industry losses. The average price of live pigs has increased to 12.51 CNY/kg, a week-on-week rise of 7.20% [2][13] - The agricultural sector is expected to maintain a good development momentum, with grain production projected to be high this year, including summer grain production of 299.48 billion jin and early rice production increasing by 6.8 billion jin, a growth of 1.2% [1][12] - The industry is currently in a supply-demand tug-of-war, with large-scale pig farms adopting strategies to control supply and raise prices, while demand is expected to improve with the arrival of warmer weather and the pickling season [2][13] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The agricultural sector is implementing key policies to support rural economic development, with a focus on achieving food security and enhancing crop yields through biotechnology [1][12] - Major beneficiaries in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, while in the seed industry, companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech are highlighted for their competitive advantages [1][12] Pig Farming - The pig farming industry is still experiencing losses, but there has been a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous week, with self-breeding farms reporting an average loss of 89.33 CNY per head, down nearly 100 CNY [2][13] - The industry is expected to undergo a process of capacity reduction, with a focus on improving quality and efficiency, leading to the gradual elimination of outdated production capacity [2][13] - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include companies like DeKang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, and Muyuan Foods [2][13] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2241.67 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.66% [27][28] - Wheat: The average price is 2482.11 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [30][32] - Soybeans: The average price is 3996.84 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.06% [41][44] - Cotton: The average price in Xinjiang is 14660 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [46][50] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.6 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.38% [53][55] - The average price of Vitamin E is 50.30 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 14.58% [62][63]

作者 I 余梦莹 报道 I 投资界PEdaily 这 是 一 笔 颇 具 情 怀 的 捐 赠 。 本周，牧原股份公告称，已自愿向杭州市西湖教育基金会捐赠1亿元，用于支持西湖大学 及南阳市西湖牧原合成生物研究院建设与发展。 牧原股份的背后是一个白手起家的故事——早年夫妻双双辞职创业，从几十头猪仔发展到 市值超2 7 0 0亿的全球"猪王"。在最新发布的《2 0 2 5胡润百富榜》中，秦英林、钱瑛夫妇 二人以18 7 0亿元的财富蝉联河南首富。 而掌舵西湖大学的，恰好是他的河南老乡施一公。 一通电话 七年捐赠12亿 根据公告，本次捐赠资金用途分为两部分—— 反 哺 教 育 。 6 0 0 0 万 元 将 用 于 支 持 西 湖 大 学 的 人 才 引 进 、 学 科 与 基 础 设 施 建 设 、 学 生 培 养 、 学 术 交 流、科研项目及相关人员薪酬奖励补助，重点方向包括动物营养、智慧农业、生命健康、 畜牧生产与智慧兽医等领域； 剩余40 0 0万元，将用于资助西湖大学参与共建的南阳市西湖牧原合成生物研究院的建设 与发展。 其实这并不是牧原股份第一次向西湖教育基金会捐赠。 早在2 01 9年2月，秦英林就以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a mixed performance in October, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.1% and 1.56% respectively. The focus is on identifying investment opportunities for November as multiple brokerages have released their monthly investment portfolios across various sectors [1]. Group 1: Recommended Stocks - A total of 11 stocks, including Huadian Technology, Industrial Fulian, and Yun Aluminum, received recommendations from two brokerages each [4]. - Among the recommended stocks, Zhongji Xuchuang had the highest increase in October, rising over 17% to a closing price of 473.01 yuan, while Top Group experienced the largest decline, falling over 8.9% to a closing price of 73.78 yuan [4]. Group 2: Industry Preferences - Several brokerages suggest focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, brokerage firms, and pharmaceuticals, indicating a potential increase in market volatility [6]. - Guosheng Securities recommends a balanced asset allocation to navigate short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of verifying economic conditions, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, lithium batteries, and storage [6]. - Zhongyuan Securities anticipates a continuation of structural oscillation in the market, advising investors to consider low-volatility assets as a fundamental allocation [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Donghai Securities highlights three main investment lines, including a focus on technology, particularly in artificial intelligence, and investment opportunities related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" strategic emerging industries [7]. - The expectation of increased investment in the fourth quarter is also noted, particularly regarding its impact on upstream resource demand [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a downward trend in pig prices, leading to a de-stocking cycle in pig farming. The profitability of the agriculture sector has turned negative due to a significant drop in pig prices, with Q3 2025 profits down by 58.8% year-on-year [5][14] - The overall revenue for the agriculture sector in Q1-Q3 2025 reached 872.718 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.44%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 35.477 billion yuan, up 10.63% year-on-year [5][14] - The average price of pigs in Q3 2025 was 13.81 yuan/kg, down 28.89% year-on-year, with the lowest price of 10.84 yuan/kg recorded on October 13, 2025 [5][14] Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Observations - The agriculture sector's profit has decreased significantly due to unexpected declines in pig prices, leading to a negative profit margin for the sector [5][14] - The sales gross margin for the industry in Q1-Q3 2025 was 11.79%, a slight increase of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 4.21%, up 0.21 percentage points year-on-year [6][17] Profitability and Cost Management - The industry is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with the expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2025 at 6.64%, down 0.58 percentage points year-on-year [6][17] - In Q3 2025, the sales gross margin fell to 10.71%, a decrease of 4.68 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin dropped to 3.13%, down 4.71 percentage points year-on-year [6][17] Market Performance - The agriculture index outperformed the market by 1.88 percentage points during the week of October 27-31, 2025, with the agriculture index rising by 1.99% [26][28] - Key stocks such as Zhongxing Junye, Weilan Biotechnology, and Luoniushan led the gains in the agriculture sector, with increases of 19.60%, 13.23%, and 9.08% respectively [26][31] Price Tracking - As of October 31, 2025, the average price of pigs was 12.49 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.67 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of piglets was 18.13 yuan/kg, up 0.47 yuan/kg [37][38] - The average price of beef was 66.30 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase of 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a contraction in breeding profits and a stabilization in planting, indicating a potential recovery in the agricultural sector [2] - The breeding sector is expected to benefit from policy and market forces driving capacity reduction, which will enhance long-term performance [3] - The planting sector is showing positive fundamentals with an upward trend in grain prices, presenting significant investment opportunities [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Breeding Sector - The pig breeding industry is experiencing a significant reduction in capacity, with current pig prices nearing 12 yuan/kg and a decline in weaned pig prices by approximately 150 yuan/head [8] - In Q3 2025, the revenue of listed pig companies reached 307.845 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.25%, while net profit was 21.929 billion yuan, up 11.36% [12] - The industry is facing a mid-term supply pressure, with inventory levels rising slightly to approximately 93.374 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in pig stocks [29] Feed and Veterinary Sectors - The feed sector is benefiting from a recovery in livestock numbers, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 215.297 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.17% [40] - The veterinary sector has shown significant growth, with revenue of 14.614 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 24.76% year-on-year, and net profit increasing by 98.94% [40] Planting Sector - The planting sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 70.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.19%, with net profit rising by 62.05% [67] - The seed sector continues to face high inventory levels, impacting overall performance, with the average inventory turnover days reaching 318.68 days, the highest since Q1 2020 [67] Pet Sector - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with domestic brands gaining recognition and market share, although competition is intensifying [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated excellent breeding cost management and has achieved profitability in its slaughtering operations, indicating a positive operational trend [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.779 billion yuan, up 41.01% year-on-year [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to declining pig prices and macroeconomic capacity adjustments, with expected net profits of 16.389 billion, 19.400 billion, and 25.319 billion yuan respectively for those years [1][5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 35.327 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.48% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.249 billion yuan, down 55.98% year-on-year [1] - The company’s total cost of breeding has decreased to 11.6 yuan per kilogram as of September 2025, down 1.5 yuan per kilogram from January 2025 [5] - The company’s breeding output for Q1-Q3 2025 was 57.323 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 27.01%, with Q3 output at 18.929 million pigs, up 17.21% year-on-year [5] Slaughtering Operations - The company’s slaughtering volume for Q1-Q3 2025 was 19.16 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 140%, with a capacity utilization rate of 88% [6] - The slaughtering segment turned profitable in Q3 2025, and the company plans to continue expanding its slaughtering capacity in Q4 2025 and 2026 [6] Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has focused on reducing breeding costs and improving production efficiency, with a PSY (pigs per sow per year) of 29 and a feed-to-meat ratio of 2.62 as of September 2025 [5] - The company is actively reducing its breeding stock to emphasize high-quality development and cost reduction [5]